How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

51 minutes ago, chrisl said:

So does that mean Prigozhin needs to stay away from windows and tall stairwells for a while?

You can't even make it up. He does the motherland proud. And anytime a so called leader does that in Russia, it's a banner story. 

[Lethaface]

Now in motion picture with appropriate music for a change.

[danfrodo]

Wow, that a busy overnight of posts, thanks all.  

SeeDorf81: thanks for chiming in and sorry for what I think was an overreaction to your point that RU armies have historically been resilient and should therefore not be underestimated.  I think the historical analogies aren't quite right relative to the current conflict but we'll find out, the hard way.  

Wagner going kaput?  There is so much crazy weirdness in that whole thing I am not even sure what to think.  But looks like Putin used Prigozin's wonderful little moneymaker as cannon fodder & now Prigozin has nuthin' left.  As was said above, he should stay on the ground floor for a while.  

Prophecy foretells continued cold around Bakhmut (doesn't 'prophesy foretells' sound better than 'weather forecast'?).  I keep going back and forth in my head over who this helps more.  Right now maybe RU?  I just don't know.  

Someone made a good point about UKR maybe counterattacking around Bakhmut -- but that's where are the RU artillery is, might be a bad idea.  That's a tough tradeoff.  RU forces might be vulnerable in newly won territory, but there's arty.  

Really really really want to see UKR make progress toward Starobilsk via Svatove, but that front looks completely stuck.  Patience patience patience.  Patience sucks.

 

 

[Astrophel]

18 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I think the stop gap between the end of hostilities and full NATO membership is the creation of a separate defensive alliance. Poland, Sweden, Finland, Baltics, Czech, UK and maybe France, US, some of the Balkans, etc could easily sign a defense pact that wouldn't be as strong as a full NATO, but it would be strong enough. Then if it takes 10 years for full NATO membership, the day after Ukraine is in the separate alliance can be dissolved as redundant. 

Maybe this is a desirable end state, maybe not.  Right now it seems advantageous to have an Erdogan-enabled ambiguity about the status of those northern lands bordering the denuded russian defences.  We do not know how the current situation evolves and it is wise to keep options open.  Keep the kremlin guessing I would say.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

That one has been reworded to "the issue of long-range weapons and fighter jets for Ukraine SEEMS like it can be resolved" by Yermak

Jimmy Rushton deleted his tweet.

Yup, small language issues. The fact that Yermak didn't communicate with emojis already was suspicious in itself.

[danfrodo]

Summary from this guy today.  If this is the big RU offensive then things are good for UKR.  If these are just the opening probes then things will get worse.  RU did a lot of shelling along w the attacks.  I wonder what the burn rate vs production rate looks like?  I wonder what UKR arty burn rate vs production rate looks like?   Also another video of RU mechanized forces stopping in plain sight of UKR observers, getting hit hard.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/9/2151999/-Ukraine-update-Russia-s-big-attack-from-Kreminna-is-turning-into-another-epic-disaster

And who else besides me thinks the next big missile strike will be on the anniversary of the SMO?  Feb 22.  The silence of RU missile attacks speaks volumes about the great RU military production miracle now that it's on a 'war footing'.

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Come on, that is a huge stretch and totally inappropriate. That is like saying the contributors to a murder are the police because they have not caught the perpetrator on the way to the crime scene,the gynecologist who assisted at his birth and did not drop him on the floor - and the murderer's friend who gave him a gun and a car to use just before the act. Soviets allied with the Germans to invade Poland and intentionally sold the Germans war materials, without which Hitler would not be able to sustain the war with the West and would not have attacked. There would not have been a World War 2 as we know it without Soviet Union's prior pact with Germany, which makes it a conditio sine qua non. In legal terms, I would say it makes Soviets more than aiders and abettors, but co-perpetrators. The fact that that both bandits fought later and one of them turned King's evidence is neither here nor there.

Oh yes, to put the perpetrator and the victim on the same level, this is a typical trick of Russian propaganda.

To equate France and Great Britain with Fascist Germany and the Soviet Union, destroying their inhabitants by the millions, is very witty

[BFCElvis]

4 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

If you use putin language in my book you're pro putin. Russia the Russia of the Napoleonic age, Russia the Russia of the Soviet Union. Russia as the Soviet Union beat Germany.  If talk like this becomes the urban myth Ukraine is in a real danger of losing. Just by being passionate about the truth they can win.

 

Enough

[Zeleban]

Ten million Americans dream of joining the Wagner PMC to end NATO.

[DesertFox]

Just now, Zeleban said:

Ten million Americans dream of joining the Wagner PMC to end NATO.

Bazillions, no even Gazillions more likely...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

I think the stop gap between the end of hostilities and full NATO membership is the creation of a separate defensive alliance. Poland, Sweden, Finland, Baltics, Czech, UK and maybe France, US, some of the Balkans, etc could easily sign a defense pact that wouldn't be as strong as a full NATO, but it would be strong enough. Then if it takes 10 years for full NATO membership, the day after Ukraine is in the separate alliance can be dissolved as redundant. 

Highly unlikely to happen, as it would compete and erode NATO sense. Various cooperation initiatives to transmitt technology, know-how etc. may be planned, though. Strong powerblock in central-Eastern Europe+Uk+Scandinavia would definitelly be a nightime bad dream of Chancellor Scholz. But he may sleep well, nothing like this will happen.

Historically, alliances such as intermarium are extremelly difficult to keep going without major powerhouse (=USA) constant and ongoing initiative. Ad hoc groups for support of Ukraine seem more realistic choice; in a way, they are already working.

Btw. Zelensky's photos from meeting with EU leaders are priceless. Curious if they put him next to Organ on purpose...

Edited February 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[MSBoxer]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Bazillions, no even Gazillions more likely...

Is that Metric Gazillions or Imperial?

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Prophecy foretells continued cold around Bakhmut   I keep going back and forth in my head over who this helps more.  Right now maybe RU?  I just don't know.  

It helps Ukraine more, I think. They seem to be vastly better at keeping their guys clothed and fed and in well built dugouts.

Also, frozen ground makes it easier for Russian tanks to drive forward into ATGM range and get blown up.

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Highly unlikely to happen, as it would compete and erode NATO sense. Various cooperation initiatives to transmitt technology, know-how etc. may be planned, though. Strong powerblock in central-Eastern Europe+Uk+Scandinavia would definitelly be a nightime bad dream of Chancellor Scholz. But he may sleep well, nothing like this will happen.

Historically, alliances such as intermarium are extremelly difficult to keep going without major powerhouse (=USA) constant and ongoing initiative. Ad hoc groups for support of Ukraine seem more realistic choice; in a way, they are already working.

Btw. Zelensky's photos from meeting with EU leaders are priceless. Curious if they put him next to Organ on purpose...

I think a nuance with Ukrainian NATO membership that we might be missing is that normally entry into NATO can take a decade or more...there is nothing normal about this situation.   There is enormous incentive to pull Ukraine into NATO quickly once this thing is over.  First we will likely be investing billions into Ukraine as part of reconstruction, and we like our investments to be secure.  Second, it is the one way to put Russia squarely back in a box, which is a major strategic aim for the West. And finally, it sends a very strong signal to China that we mean business.  If we dither and hand-wring for a decade all we are doing is signaling disunity, risking investments and leaving ourselves wide open for a follow on dislocation from Russia.

My point being that Ukraine entry into NATO has a lot of momentum behind it, particularly from the US, and NATO being a military body - slow as it is - will be reading the wind direction as well.  So I do not think we can apply normal metrics here, is my point.

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

More on that polish HIMARS buying spree..

That makes a little more sense, but it's still pretty crazy. Where are they going to get the ammunition for all those launchers? They appear to have ordered enough for one salvo . Domestic production under license?

[Beleg85]

https://tsn.ua/ato/velikiy-nastup-rosiyi-krayina-agresorka-pidgotuvala-tisyachi-tankiv-i-bronemashin-sotni-vinischuvachiv-foreign-policy-2261494.html

- 1800 tanks - 3950 armored vehicles - 2700 artillery units - 810 self propelled guns - 400 jets - 300 helicopters

Some of estimates about vehicles prepared for offensive...sound a bit high, the probably count everything they have there.

2 hours ago, Ales Dvorak said:

This is normal. Just look at the narrative in EU. Remember North Stream 2? Putin did it, Russia did it...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-bombed-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-claims-investigative-journalist-seymour-hersh-s730dnnfz

Worth to note article does not prove anything and is widely criticized. S.Hersh is a tankie by this point, who is pretty well with Assad (what a surprise...) and claimed that for example Skripal wasn't targeted by Russians.

It doesn't mean NS2 was blown by Muscovites, but there is no substantial evidence who did this so far. Not that I would weep after this pipe.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://tsn.ua/ato/velikiy-nastup-rosiyi-krayina-agresorka-pidgotuvala-tisyachi-tankiv-i-bronemashin-sotni-vinischuvachiv-foreign-policy-2261494.html

- 1800 tanks - 3950 armored vehicles - 2700 artillery units - 810 self propelled guns - 400 jets - 300 helicopters

Some of estimates about vehicles prepared for offensive...sound a bit high, the probably count everything they have there.

Worth to note article does not prove anything and is widely criticized. S.Hersh is a tankie by this point, who is pretty well with Assad (what a surprise...) and claimed that for example Skripal wasn't kille by Russians.

It doesn't mean NS2 was blown by Muscovites, but there is no substantial evidence who did this so far. Not that I would weep after this pipe.

Hersh's article is describing the usual arc of his claims these days. Sounds big and then quickly collapses under the weight of reality.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Ales Dvorak said:

This is normal. Just look at the narrative in EU. Remember North Stream 2? Putin did it, Russia did it...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-bombed-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-claims-investigative-journalist-seymour-hersh-s730dnnfz

 

p.s. Don't turn off the light with a switch, just blow up the house. ( and light will maybe turn off )

Yes a guy, who denies russian warcrimes and is using "anonymous sources" as a proof - is definitely a trustworthy source. I got a twitter-load of these.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://tsn.ua/ato/velikiy-nastup-rosiyi-krayina-agresorka-pidgotuvala-tisyachi-tankiv-i-bronemashin-sotni-vinischuvachiv-foreign-policy-2261494.html

- 1800 tanks - 3950 armored vehicles - 2700 artillery units - 810 self propelled guns - 400 jets - 300 helicopters

Some of estimates about vehicles prepared for offensive...sound a bit high, the probably count everything they have there.

Worth to note article does not prove anything and is widely criticized. S.Hersh is a tankie by this point, who is pretty well with Assad (what a surprise...) and claimed that for example Skripal wasn't kille by Russians.

It doesn't mean NS2 was blown by Muscovites, but there is no substantial evidence who did this so far. Not that I would weep after this pipe.

I suppose both sides would want to embellish the RU forces coming.  But we shall see what is real quite soon it seems.  RU wants to strike before UKR gets any stronger, hoping to get more land then turn into turtle.  Fortunately they are choosing a massive offensive when the threat of mud is always just a few days away.  Frozen this week but for how long?

Maybe RU thinks this will be some kind of Bagration.  But I suspect it will be more like Rzhev.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Hersh's article is describing the usual arc of his claims these days. Sounds big and then quickly collapses under the weight of reality.

extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.  Or at least some proof other than "some guy in a bar told me...."

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Highly unlikely to happen, as it would compete and erode NATO sense. Various cooperation initiatives to transmitt technology, know-how etc. may be planned, though. Strong powerblock in central-Eastern Europe+Uk+Scandinavia would definitelly be a nightime bad dream of Chancellor Scholz. But he may sleep well, nothing like this will happen.

Historically, alliances such as intermarium are extremelly difficult to keep going without major powerhouse (=USA) constant and ongoing initiative. Ad hoc groups for support of Ukraine seem more realistic choice; in a way, they are already working.

I think that intermediately, a number of security guarantees from major powers like US, UK, probably Poland and some Nordic countries will be given to Ukraine, similarly to the temporary guarantees that Sweden and Finland got when they applied to NATO. There's no need for a full blown alliance.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Huba

[dan/california]

Have you written your Congressperson/MP about SpaceX yet?

 

[Vet 0369]

On 2/8/2023 at 3:34 AM, Rokko said:

 

Potentially noteworthy, 30th Mech apparently in action north of Bakhmut. Maybe it's old news but I've personally not seen this brigade mentioned in recent weeks, so it was possibly sent to reinforce this sector.

And, there’s that”shoot n scoot “ maneuver again. Looks like it’ becoming pretty consistent Standard Operating Procedure (SOP). Killer drone defense?

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Oh yes, to put the perpetrator and the victim on the same level, this is a typical trick of Russian propaganda.

To equate France and Great Britain with Fascist Germany and the Soviet Union, destroying their inhabitants by the millions, is very witty

That's not what he said, I think this spiral is going nowhere. Nobody posting here is pro-Putin, they left long time ago. Accusing each other of being on the wrong side of history is pointless and unnecessary divisive. Let's not do the work of RU propaganda for them

[Vet 0369]

On 2/8/2023 at 4:38 AM, Zeleban said:

 

Classic combined arms tactics! My long-time gaming opponent learned about this the hard way from me when he was playing the Soviets against my Germans while playing “The Library” scenario in Stalingrad, way back in CMBB CMX1. He hasn’t duplicated his error again since then.