How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Well then, I stand corrected. Thank you. Now I guess that whether the earthen mound is a dam with a causeway on top of it (built to stop the water flow and create a reservoir) or a causeway (elevated road built to cross a low lying water feature). Isn’t the English language so fantastic to give us so many opportunities for discussions?

Those damn Angles, Saxons and Normans. Never mix languages, dammit. That way lies madnesssssss....

Edited October 4, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3505811-pavlo-fedosenko-hero-of-ukraine.html

I've tracked him since 2014.

Read that article and note how many times he says that he, personally, is responsible for his subordinates - their welfare, lives and military support. And they repay it back. As noted early by others, the German Wehrmacht had a similar Esprit de corps (as did the Western Allies, and I assume some Soviet commanders). 

Winning is inevitable. No matter what, the UA will find a way, together.

 

[dan/california]

This is one bit of news I hadn't seen anywhere else. If there were two or three tanks per barge this would add up quickly.

Edited October 4, 2022 by dan/california

[chuckdyke]

Here is what Russian Media is capable of. Like they say the truth is the first........

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Fenris]

42 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Here is what Russian Media is capable of. Like they say the truth is the first........

 

 

Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty

 

[Zeleban]

The video clearly shows the reason why the Ukrainian fighters ride outside the armored personnel carrier. Inside are personal items and other cargo. Soviet armored vehicles do not have air conditioning facilities. Therefore, riding in it in the summer resembles a trip in the oven, and in the winter in the freezer. In addition, the internal space of Soviet armored vehicles is not designed to transport fighters in modern equipment (body armor, a lot of pouches) and can carry a limited number of fighters inside. Apparently, therefore, the fighters prefer to transport various cargo inside, while they themselves travel outside

[chuckdyke]

31 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty

They don't fight in Russia but Ukraine. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The video clearly shows the reason why the Ukrainian fighters ride outside the armored personnel carrier. Inside are personal items and other cargo. Soviet armored vehicles do not have air conditioning facilities. Therefore, riding in it in the summer resembles a trip in the oven, and in the winter in the freezer. In addition, the internal space of Soviet armored vehicles is not designed to transport fighters in modern equipment (body armor, a lot of pouches) and can carry a limited number of fighters inside. Apparently, therefore, the fighters prefer to transport various cargo inside, while they themselves travel outside

That is not the reason.

Finns do it no problem. The equipment gets strapped on the outside of the vehicle or gets transported in companies trucks. 

Yes, you can fit inside with modern gear. It is still more comfortable than on top with bad weather or shrapnel threat. Example you can sleep inside BMP-2 on the move, good luck with that on top.

I don't agree with the riding on top stuff.

[Zeleban]

Surely the Finns have upgraded their armored vehicles for harsh winter conditions.

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Surely the Finns have upgraded their armored vehicles for harsh winter conditions.

For some reason Soviet vehicles tend to be build with harsh winter condition in mind.

[Zeleban]

Oh, you exaggerate the foresight of the Soviets. They are the last thing they think about normal working conditions. Not only in military technology

[Kinophile]

Isnt it simply about safety? ie being as far away as possible from mines and being able to rapidly get away from the vehicel if it becomes a target or is actually hit.

The soviet garbage is very vulnerable to mines, has useless armor and is not designed for fast, safe egress (i.e if hit).

You get a light vehicle thats easily produced, modified and maintained, but at a cost of safety & protection. 

As always: Good, Fast or Cheap, pick two. Or - Survivable, Maintainable, Buildable.

USSR couldnt build a maintainable and properly survivable APC/IFV, not at the quantity they needed. So they choose having a lot of vehicles for a reasonable price, at the cost of crew/infantry survivability. Soldiers arent stupid, no one rides on the outside of a military vehicle for comfort. Hell, inside often aint great either!

[Canada Guy]

Kinophile, you mentioned snowmobiles, but all the UA army needs is a few Aimo Koivunen

https://allthatsinteresting.com/aimo-koivunen

The references to the winter weather are interesting.  I live in a part of Canada that is on average -20C in Feb but last year it dripped down to around -51C (-60F for our American friends).

I assume parts of Ukraine have the same weather patterns.

I was freezing after 45 minutes outside in great gear and good winter boots and keeping up a good pace to keep warm. I am not joking when I say that Canada should ship winter gear to Ukraine instead of anything else. General winter could be a deciding factor. 

[sburke]

Ukraine’s Counteroffensives Appear To Be Part Of A Much Bigger Plan—To Divide The Russian Army (msn.com)

[Combatintman]

8 hours ago, Grossman said:

Biden was criticised heavily for the sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan, end of August 2021, last year. It could have been done better, agreed, but the theory I have is that the US had very early intel that the Russians were going to invade Ukraine. In the US book this was home turf, as compared to Afghanistan, and the US didn't want to be "deployed" in 2 conflicts at the same time. Hence the immediate pull out in Afghanistan. Biden never said why it was done, but then he wouldn't. 

Quoting myself ...

On 8/18/2022 at 5:15 PM, Combatintman said:

From this forum's Kabul correspondent ... let's well and truly bury the Afghan thing.  As is generally the case, the most obvious explanation is usually the right one.  The timelines were simply those dictated by the February 2020 US-Taliban Agreement.  Biden arrived in office with a short timeline in which to take the decision to follow through with the withdrawal commitment in the US-Taliban Agreement.  The decision was announced on April 14, 2021.  According to the Washington Post article:

"Just weeks before the essay appeared, Biden and Putin had held a June 16 summit that both declared was “constructive.” At that point, Ukraine was a concern, but one that White House officials felt could be dealt with. As the White House delegation left the meeting, held in Geneva, a senior Biden aide would later recall, “we didn’t get on the plane and come home and think the world was on the cusp of a major war in Europe.”

The article states that it wasn't until October that the US was confident enough in its assessment that Russia would attack to take it to the President or put another way, sometime after the last US service member walked up the ramp of a C-17 in Kabul.

So - your theory holds no water at all.

[FancyCat]

I go back and forth on this, but after Azov being released I think I firmly believe there is little threat of a mass overthrow of Putin. Polling like this which essentially is fine with whatever Putin does, says to me that if he really needed to leave Ukraine in a total loss, the Russian people aren’t going to toss him out. Now, the elite class, different matter. 

 

 

[MikeyD]

I recall ten years ago discussions about what the future Syrian government would look like after the ouster of Assad. That didn't pan out quite the way we hoped, either.

[kraze]

8 hours ago, Grossman said:

Biden was criticised heavily for the sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan, end of August 2021, last year. It could have been done better, agreed, but the theory I have is that the US had very early intel that the Russians were going to invade Ukraine. In the US book this was home turf, as compared to Afghanistan, and the US didn't want to be "deployed" in 2 conflicts at the same time. Hence the immediate pull out in Afghanistan. Biden never said why it was done, but then he wouldn't. 

Furthermore apart from what Combatintman pointed out - Afghanistan was US boots on the ground using military technology Ukraine isn't getting at all. There are no american infantry, tanks, APCs, planes, choppers in Ukraine. Only arty, but in Afghanistan there were no artillery intensive battles that required similar numbers to what we have here.

If there would've been a plan to stay in Afghanistan - it wouldn't mess with supplies to Ukraine in any way.

[Maquisard manqué]

30 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I recall ten years ago discussions about what the future Syrian government would look like after the ouster of Assad. That didn't pan out quite the way we hoped, either.

Like?

[edit: I agree but am not sure if a +1 or like quite captures how I feel. I’m not being snarky]

Edited October 4, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[Taranis]

10 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Pulls out conclusion out of his hat based on very little. Example in the spring concluded that Germany and France are going to let up on their support based on body language in a photoshoot. And oh god the economic analysis. If he is right the western economy will fail and the main economic models don't work.

Especially in his strategic level commentary, but also in tactical level he makes a lot of baseless conclusions. Resent example concluding Harkiv attack run out of steam weeks ago and Kherson op failed already many many times.

He shows the front rumors well, but any analysis or future predictions are just wild, and made with such confidence.

Also again the world economic predictions. Oh, god

@Homo_Ferricus

He had also insisted on the fact that the HIMARS and their use against the ammo dumps would be absolutely useless, that it was not a gamechanger and that it was a waste. Since then, although the Russian artillery is still present, their infinite amount of ammunition seems to have eroded and is no longer really capable of stopping the Russian attacks. Conversely, this is what our forum has clearly demonstrated. Since that and other Western shipments, the Ukrainians have taken over. So ultimately, isn't it a gamechanger? (although as in all things, everything is more complex and the HIMARS alone have not reversed the situation but in my opinion have greatly contributed).

Regarding this channel, there are good and less good. The good thing is that he can help us see things differently because he thinks of things that I would not necessarily have thought of on the economic level, for example. I am more informed about military things than economics and he brings me subjects that I had not noticed with my narrow-mindedness based only on military news. His remarks should therefore not be taken as facts but as subjects for further reflection. As MonkeyKing says, he is super pessimistic with the West and conversely rather over optimistic for the Russians. He said that "the Russians would always have enormous amounts of artillery ammunition, an infinite supply of tanks (12,000 tanks etc, without taking into account that a good part are no longer in good condition or old models) and that their economy is doing wonderfully while Ukraine is at the bottom of the abyss and Europe is on the verge of destruction". While the latest information seems to indicate that Russians suffer much more economically than we think.

In my humble opinion, this chain remains interesting to help us get out of our echo chamber but it remains necessary as in all things to cross sources. And keep in mind he says a certain amount of BS and don't take it all for the truth. A channel like Reporting From Ukraine or the one made by a pilot whose name I can't remember are good complements, although the former is very biased on the Ukrainian side. They have the advantage of being short and of completing the War in Ukraine channel well if you have little time to follow the news and multiply your sources.

Another solution, although there is not always everything, is to consult the site https://liveuamap.com/ which gives good information (multiplications of sources;))

Sorry for the big block

Edited October 4, 2022 by Taranis

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers along the road near Lyman, after the reconquest of Kiev, October 3, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"


"A member of the Kiev forces has his hair cut in the heart of a forest on the outskirts of Lyman, eastern Ukraine, October 3, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"


"Ukrainian soldiers search for dead bodies along the road near Lyman, after the reconquest of Kiev, October 3, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"



"A Ukrainian soldier patrols near a forest on the outskirts of Lyman, a city liberated by Kiev, October 3, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"


"A Ukrainian serviceman sits on a piece of armored vehicle, on the outskirts of the town of Lyman, Ukraine. October 3, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"

[Bulletpoint]

53 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I recall ten years ago discussions about what the future Syrian government would look like after the ouster of Assad. That didn't pan out quite the way we hoped, either.

As I remember it, Assad was on the ropes, but then Putin came in to save him.

It seems that Putin now needs the help of another Putin.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577202149821321216?s=20&t=Wt79f_EgC4U4EjCcfZy7xg

Rumor to get excited about

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Canada Guy said:

Kinophile, you mentioned snowmobiles, but all the UA army needs is a few Aimo Koivunen

https://allthatsinteresting.com/aimo-koivunen

The references to the winter weather are interesting.  I live in a part of Canada that is on average -20C in Feb but last year it dripped down to around -51C (-60F for our American friends).

I assume parts of Ukraine have the same weather patterns.

I was freezing after 45 minutes outside in great gear and good winter boots and keeping up a good pace to keep warm. I am not joking when I say that Canada should ship winter gear to Ukraine instead of anything else. General winter could be a deciding factor. 

I think we are way overestimating the power of UA winter. First, global warming is a thing, and the weather is on average much less severe than it used to be. I recall months long periods of negative temperatures and snow lying around, right now it's no longer the case - you get maybe 2 weeks of that per year. In general, mud is much more annoying during winters now than snow. Granted, I live 2K km from Donbas, but I bet the pattern has to be at least somehow similar. Kharkiv is on average 4C colder than my city.

Second, when you look at typical temperatures in UA, it is not that bad at all. There might be periods of nasty weather, with uber cold continental air coming in, but on average it's really not that horrible. It is of course way different in the mountainous areas, but all the fighting takes place in the low positioned flatlands.

Perhaps some of our Ukrainian users could shed a bit of light on that? @Haiduk @krazeIs going around the countryside on snow scooter during the winter possible at all?

Edited October 4, 2022 by Huba

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

I think we are way overestimating the power of UA winter. First, global warming is a thing, and the weather is on average much less severe than it used to be. I recall months long periods of negative temperatures and snow lying around, right now it's no longer the case - you get maybe 2 weeks of that per year. In general, mud is much more annoying during winters now than snow. Granted, I live 2K km from Donbas, but I bet the pattern has to be at least somehow similar. Kharkiv is on average 4C colder than my city.

Second, when you look at typical temperatures in UA, it is not that bad at all. There might be periods of nasty weather, with uber cold continental air coming in, but on average it's really not that horrible. It is of course way different in the mountainous areas, but all the fighting takes place in the low positioned flatlands.

Perhaps some of our Ukrainian users could shed a bit of light on that? @Haiduk @kraze

This is true. Recently, in Ukraine in winter it is rarely below -5C. As a rule, the temperature is kept within -1 - +5 C