How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting timing.  I just concluded a long and very detailed conversation with someone that has very deep knowledge of this war.  I mentioned your theory that Rybar is a Prigozhin asset and he paused, processed it, and said that something that's bothered him for a long time now makes sense.  Let's see if you agree.

We have this instance of Rybar shamelessly distorting truth to support Wagner, yet there was a feud between Rybar and GreyZone about Kherson.  Rybar saying that Russia's has things well under control and GreyZone mocking him as a propagandist.  This something you've run into?

He was trying to make sense of the apparent split personalities of both.  But now it makes sense to him, and to me I think.  Rybar and GreyZone are working together to discredit the Russian MoD to benefit Putin in his whatever power games the two are engaging in.  In this case Rybar is building up the expectations of Russian defenses to enhance GreyZone's messaging that the MoD is incompetent.

What do you think?

Steve

Yes, I ran into this and similar conflicts. 

I never thought that my knowledge of obscure RU cultural things would be of some use. Because there are additional cultural factors, we need to consider when discussing RU Nats internal dynamics. 

1. GreyZone point of view

GreyZone is one of the channels created by Wagnerites and Wagnerite supporters (for example Tatarsky). And major part of Wagnerites (not current zeks) is linked to RU military history circles. 

One of the longest debates in RU military history circles was the debate regarding RU military/government use of lies/propaganda to hide real problems/defeats in attempt to boost morale. The issue was extensively debated and there were a lot of examples shown that RU gov lies/propaganda had negative consequences on overall performance of RU military in WW2.

So, from viewpoint of smart Wagnerites (and smart RU Nats like Girkinites because they are from the same circles) lies/propaganda is useful tool in some situation, but it must be used sparingly and it is often better to admit existing issues, discuss and fix them. That's advantage of Wagenrites over RU regulars - they are more frank internally as an organization. 

That's why in my humble opinion GreyZone tends to conflict with propagandist Rybar. Rybar is paid to create certain propaganda narrative regardless of anything else while GreyZone wants to avoid past RU mistakes and see some of the Rybar actions as harmful for a general RU cause.

It is not the first time it has happened. AFAIR GreyZone clashed with brother channel RSOTM over HIMARS issue and how publicly react to it. 

2. Rybar point of view

There is a crucial difference between Kharkiv and Kherson. I do not know why but RU civilian authorities are much more heavily involved in Kherson. According to Rybar himself Kharkiv was getting less than 1/10 of money Kherson was getting. As such RU gov have bigger stakes at Kherson than at Kharkiv. Like you said Kherson seems to be extremely important for Putin.

And Putin is the boss of Prigozhin. That's why I believe Rybar is making a positive narrative regarding Kherson and that's why RU is fighting teeth and nails there.

 This is my humble opinion on the matter.

[BletchleyGeek]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

One of the longest debates in RU military history circles was the debate regarding RU military/government use of lies/propaganda to hide real problems/defeats in attempt to boost morale. The issue was extensively debated and there were a lot of examples shown that RU gov lies/propaganda had negative consequences on overall performance of RU military in WW2

This is very interesting. I have read quite a bit of Isaev, Lopukhovsky and Zamulin, and I always wondered what was the reception of the scathing criticism you can find in their works. 

[CAZmaj]

5 hours ago, kraze said:

People, who right now rape, loot and murder in Ukraine are russian youth. Most were 10-11 years old when the war with Ukraine started.

Generational slaves don't tick the way free people do and shouldn't be compared, expecting the seemingly logical results you are used to at home.

That's right. And if the same Russian youth emigrated to the Western Europe, then they attack and beat-up Ukranian women and girls.

[FancyCat]

22 minutes ago, Grigb said:

2. Rybar point of view

 

There is a crucial difference between Kharkiv and Kherson. I do not know why but RU civilian authorities are much more heavily involved in Kherson. According to Rybar himself Kharkiv was getting less than 1/10 of money Kherson was getting. As such RU gov have bigger stakes at Kherson than at Kharkiv. Like you said Kherson seems to be extremely important for Putin.

And Putin is the boss of Prigozhin. That's why I believe Rybar is making a positive narrative regarding Kherson and that's why RU is fighting teeth and nails there.

 This is my humble opinion on the matter.

You can't annex and create a republic of Kharkiv without the city and capital of Kharkiv. You can certainly create a Kherson Peoples Republic with a capital in Kherson. Without control of the regional capital, it's much harder to formalize a puppet state especially when you have the grand city of Kharkiv with a million people and then have to set up a capital in freaking Izyum with 150k people. Kherson oblast, same principle, some 2 figure town on the left bank of the river isn't gonna replace Kherson with it's 300k pop.

Zaporizhzhia, maybe Metlitopol but it's still just sorta ehh.

Roth makes a good point, if you annex the Donbas and then Ukraine takes it all back without escalation, what principle defines Crimea and not the Donbas if both are annexed eternal lands of Russia? Time? Not good enough justification for the international community to side with Russia, especially after desperately annexing the Donbas in a last ditch effort.

 

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Thank you for your kind words. Just doing what I can.  

HeliosRunner maps are great. They give an excellent feel of terrain, something that my satellite maps are not good at.

If you save your Google Earth overlays as .kml files rather than .kmz files you can open them up in this Program:

Military Map - Plan your Mission

Once you're in it - click the layers button, then vector layers.  If you then hit the + key it will then allow you to navigate to wherever you've saved your overlay.  Select the .kml overlay file and add it.

For topographical maps - go to the settings icon and click it.  Then scroll down to map type and select OpenTopoMap.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Our old comrade @Bigduke6, last checked in here from Donbass  in 2016 (hoping he is well and he didn't get conscripted!), made a similar observation on Hitler years ago....

I'm still in contact with him pretty much daily.  Alive, well, and not armed with anything other than a keyboard these days.

Steve

[Maquisard manqué]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, and Dem Deutschen Volk, similarly, had no excuse not to know better before enlisting en masse in Hitler's death cult.

That all had little to do with my original point, but our friend chose to beat his usual drum, as he does on cue whenever anyone suggests some kind of future where any (*shudder!*) Russians might actually dig out of their current civilisational rut.

It’s quite predictable and invariably one dimensional. Almost like what an algorithm might generate. Content seems to tend to two classifications: Russians are subhuman evil things, or jokes about Russian incompetence.

[kevinkin]

Tanks for breakfast:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/american-tanks-for-ukraine-are-absolutely-on-the-table

"The Army already has thousands of older M1s in storage, too." Not sure if these can make it for autumn offensive ops. But a welcome addition down the line perhaps to secure the reestablished border. 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-just-captured-russias-most-advanced-operational-tank

Gee, the US freaks at allowing tech to fall into the wrong hands (for good reason most of the time). But apparently Russia could care less or ran for the hills after throwing a track. Nice.  

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yes, I ran into this and similar conflicts. 

I never thought that my knowledge of obscure RU cultural things would be of some use. Because there are additional cultural factors, we need to consider when discussing RU Nats internal dynamics. 

1. GreyZone point of view

GreyZone is one of the channels created by Wagnerites and Wagnerite supporters (for example Tatarsky). And major part of Wagnerites (not current zeks) is linked to RU military history circles. 

One of the longest debates in RU military history circles was the debate regarding RU military/government use of lies/propaganda to hide real problems/defeats in attempt to boost morale. The issue was extensively debated and there were a lot of examples shown that RU gov lies/propaganda had negative consequences on overall performance of RU military in WW2.

So, from viewpoint of smart Wagnerites (and smart RU Nats like Girkinites because they are from the same circles) lies/propaganda is useful tool in some situation, but it must be used sparingly and it is often better to admit existing issues, discuss and fix them. That's advantage of Wagenrites over RU regulars - they are more frank internally as an organization. 

That's why in my humble opinion GreyZone tends to conflict with propagandist Rybar. Rybar is paid to create certain propaganda narrative regardless of anything else while GreyZone wants to avoid past RU mistakes and see some of the Rybar actions as harmful for a general RU cause.

It is not the first time it has happened. AFAIR GreyZone clashed with brother channel RSOTM over HIMARS issue and how publicly react to it. 

2. Rybar point of view

There is a crucial difference between Kharkiv and Kherson. I do not know why but RU civilian authorities are much more heavily involved in Kherson. According to Rybar himself Kharkiv was getting less than 1/10 of money Kherson was getting. As such RU gov have bigger stakes at Kherson than at Kharkiv. Like you said Kherson seems to be extremely important for Putin.

And Putin is the boss of Prigozhin. That's why I believe Rybar is making a positive narrative regarding Kherson and that's why RU is fighting teeth and nails there.

 This is my humble opinion on the matter.

Interesting thoughts.  Thanks.

OK, so what we're talking about here are "sock puppets".  The difference between a sock puppet and a propagandist is thin, as they often perform the same function.  However, a sock puppet is someone that is directly controlled by another entity while also giving the illusion of independence from it.  A propagandist is assumed to be controlled, therefore is more easily ignored by people who are alert for propagandists.  For sure Rybar is a propagandist in the Western sense, just not always for the obvious master (Russia and/or Kremlin) as we might suspect (Prigozhin).

This makes sense to me.  On Kharkiv and other topics GreyZone and Rybar do not seem to be on different pages.  They don't attack each other either.  But with Kherson, it's different because here the motivations of Prigozhin are split.  On the one hand there's a desire to stay "on message" with Putin (Reybar), on the other hand Prigozhin is angling for more power at the expense of the Army.  Hence a different pattern of behavior.

Who needs Q-Anon when there are really rabbits to chase down real rabbit holes in Russian' politics

Steve

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, BletchleyGeek said:

This is very interesting. I have read quite a bit of Isaev, Lopukhovsky and Zamulin, and I always wondered what was the reception of the scathing criticism you can find in their works. 

Yes, these works (and many other) were used in the debate often by the authors themselves to demonstrate that you cannot lie yourself out of the military problems. 

The reception was always related to readers background and time period. Generalizing we can say that due to that debate the criticism is more or less accepted now. But depending on social background, different readers use various coping methods. For example, claiming USSR was a poor country that lacked smart men, so we should not expect anything better. Or claiming that Allies were equally bad it was just their propaganda was better. 

Also, you need to understand that these authors criticism is written in a specific softened way. In translations and without context it looks harsh. But in reality, they soften some really painful "corners" and do not touch others. They are like Girkin - they criticize certain issues and criticize them harshly but never the root cause.

[Huba]

According to WarGonzo, referendum about joining Russia is to be held September 23 to 27, both in LPR and DPR. Do you think this is agreed with the Kremlin, or are they acting on their own? IMO if it happens and is accepted by Putin, it will only dilute the "red line" of UA entering RU territory. Thoughts?

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Some understanding for kraze might be in order, he is Ukrainian no? Lives in Ukraine? We know from Bucha that Russian "filtration" meant executing men in fighting age. We also know that they are doing their best to suppress pro-Ukrainian sentiment in the occupied regions, and that means such things like possibly imprisoning, killing people found to harbor those sentiments, etc.

God forbid, had Kiyv completely fallen, Haiduk certainly would probably need to hide and delete his social media postings and anything relating to this forum certainly. (I dunno if kraze is in Ukraine or is Ukrainian but if so, the same applies to him) I won't begrudge someone who is watching the destruction of their country and the attempted wiping of their fellow people reacting with disdain and anger for Russians, when the current expression of Russia in Ukraine illustrates a deep, very deep rot in Russian society, with devastating suffering for Ukraine as a result.

...Yes, and allowance has been duly given throughout c1400 pages of discussion. In general, I don't address him unless he addresses me.

However, he also uses his righteous anger to push a quite nasty view of the irremediably barbarous nature of ALL Russians, now and forever, polities, groups or individuals.

.... While all Ukrainians absolutely should be preoccupied right now with the high velocity killing of all armed Russians occupying their country, a lot of our discussion here also circles around the fate of Russia and Russians postwar.

And whether some people here like it or not, Ukraine (and the world) is going be living and interacting with Russians long term. No sane adult is about to back some vile crusade to exterminate them, to occupy Russia, to wall Russians off from 'civilised' humanity, or any other such lunacy. They don't disappear into a flaming pit (unless most of us come with them....).

But sadly, there will be people who will try to pull that kind of thing within Ukraine after the victory, taking it upon themselves to decide by force who is an 'orc' or collaborator, on what will become increasingly thin evidence. Blood libel and collective guilt. First, it won't work. Second, it will utterly foul the fruits of victory, especially in Crimea.

IMHO, Crimea needs to go back to Ukraine (Russia's historical claims are now forfeit due to its terrible crimes, frankly) but WITH the population who lived there in 2014 enjoying the full rights of citizens. Regardless of their native tongue, which happens to be mainly Russian.

FWIW

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

IMO if it happens and is accepted by Putin, it will only dilute the "red line" of UA entering RU territory. Thoughts?

Needs to be ratified by the UN. The world is not in the mood to worry about putins perception of the world.

[Grigb]

38 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

You can't annex and create a republic of Kharkiv without the city and capital of Kharkiv. You can certainly create a Kherson Peoples Republic with a capital in Kherson. Without control of the regional capital, it's much harder to formalize a puppet state especially when you have the grand city of Kharkiv with a million people and then have to set up a capital in freaking Izyum with 150k people. Kherson oblast, same principle, some 2 figure town on the left bank of the river isn't gonna replace Kherson with it's 300k pop.

Zaporizhzhia, maybe Metlitopol but it's still just sorta ehh.

Most probably this is the reason, yes.

 

38 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Roth makes a good point, if you annex the Donbas and then Ukraine takes it all back without escalation, what principle defines Crimea and not the Donbas if both are annexed eternal lands of Russia? Time? Not good enough justification for the international community to side with Russia, especially after desperately annexing the Donbas in a last ditch effort.

 

RU gov makes another mess trying to fix the mess it previously made. 

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Some understanding for kraze might be in order, he is Ukrainian no? Lives in Ukraine? We know from Bucha that Russian "filtration" meant executing men in fighting age. We also know that they are doing their best to suppress pro-Ukrainian sentiment in the occupied regions, and that means such things like possibly imprisoning, killing people found to harbor those sentiments, etc.

God forbid, had Kiyv completely fallen, Haiduk certainly would probably need to hide and delete his social media postings and anything relating to this forum certainly. (I dunno if kraze is in Ukraine or is Ukrainian but if so, the same applies to him) I won't begrudge someone who is watching the destruction of their country and the attempted wiping of their fellow people reacting with disdain and anger for Russians, when the current expression of Russia in Ukraine illustrates a deep, very deep rot in Russian society, with devastating suffering for Ukraine as a result.

I think everyone here understands bitterness and even hatred Ukrainians feel towards Russians. Maybe "understands" is the wrong word because we others sit more or less comfortbly far away from the war.

Anyway, while a lot of hard feelings are totally humanely understable, we don't have to condone everything. It is possible to understand things and still say they are wrong. A red line for me personally is racism. Not just out of principle but also because it leads nowhere useful for understanding the situation and hand. I think the latter is something we strive hard for, here. I won't go as far as calling kraze a racist. But he is at least putting his toes dangerously close to that line.

Why do I say that? Because he repeatedly ascribes certain attributes, like being murderers and rapists or at least condoning such things, to each and every single Russian. He also denies them even the possibility to ever change their behaviour. Maybe he has good reasons to feel that way. And that is not direct racism up to this point. But if you think it through to the end, if a people is unable to change certain attributes that every member of that population has, then it can't be cultural because culture always changes over time. Then it has to be genetic. And that is effectively what would be defined as racism.

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

But he is at least putting his toes dangerously close to that line.

Hate in wartime is a survival instinct. If they see Russians at this time as a Slav speaking honorable adversary, it is a recipe of undermining one's fighting spirit. 

[Huba]

17 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Most probably this is the reason, yes.

 

RU gov makes another mess trying to fix the mess it previously made. 

 

Somebody on Twitter mentioned that if all occupied territories are formally declared to be RU, conscripts can be legally deployed there. It might be another stop-gap measure to the manpower problem. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Huba

[The_MonkeyKing]

Russia is going for full annexation of the occupied territories and partial mobilization in Russia (industry, stop-loss policies). Also the full annexation opens other successive escalatory steps because the war is fought on "Russian" territory. 

 

[Letter from Prague]

I'm happy to see fresh batch of "how dare the Ukranians be racist against Russians by calling them barbaric" from people living far away from Russia is well timed with fresh batch of Russian atrocities: Ukraine Army Discovers Mutilated Bodies With 'Genitals Cut Off' During Mop-Up Operations https://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-army-discovers-mutilated-bodies-genitals-cut-off-during-mop-operations-3614606

But sure, keep talking about being angry at Russians is the true evil here.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Combatintman said:

If you save your Google Earth overlays as .kml files rather than .kmz files you can open them up in this Program:

Military Map - Plan your Mission

Once you're in it - click the layers button, then vector layers.  If you then hit the + key it will then allow you to navigate to wherever you've saved your overlay.  Select the .kml overlay file and add it.

For topographical maps - go to the settings icon and click it.  Then scroll down to map type and select OpenTopoMap.

Thanks a lot!

[kraze]

5 hours ago, paxromana said:

Well, Kievan Rus spawned Ukraine as well as Russia. And the Rus (Scandinavians) spawned Norway, Sweden and Denmark ... so where did *Russia* go wrong.

Can't even blame the 'usual suspects' - the Mongols - as they hit Ukraine as hard as Muscovy.

Kyivan Rus didn't spawn Russia. Mongols did. That's where that "go wrong part is". Muscovy didn't even get to occupy former Rus lands up until late 15th century really and even then they didn't think there was any connection, it was just all conquest as vassals of Mongols.

Remember - there literally were no russians until 1721 when Peter I decided they aren't some backward land that washes clothes in rivers but an empire now....

...lol

[Grigb]

35 minutes ago, Huba said:

Somebody on Twitter mentioned that if all occupied territories are formally declared to be RU, conscripts can be legally deployed there. It might be another stop-gap measure to the manpower problem. 

Yes. That could be the reason as well. Well, except it will destabilize internal situation even more.

[hcrof]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'm happy to see fresh batch of "how dare the Ukranians be racist against Russians by calling them barbaric" from people living far away from Russia is well timed with fresh batch of Russian atrocities: Ukraine Army Discovers Mutilated Bodies With 'Genitals Cut Off' During Mop-Up Operations https://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-army-discovers-mutilated-bodies-genitals-cut-off-during-mop-operations-3614606

But sure, keep talking about being angry at Russians is the true evil here.

Did you read what Butschi said? It is possible to condemn russian atrocities while warning against going too far and becoming just as bad as the Kremlin propagandists. 

What about the Russians who are horrified by the war and are organising against it? What about the Russians fighting for Ukraine right now?

We must not become the monster we condemn.

[LongLeftFlank]

9 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'm happy to see fresh batch of "how dare the Ukranians be racist against Russians by calling them barbaric" from people living far away from Russia is well timed with fresh batch of Russian atrocities: Ukraine Army Discovers Mutilated Bodies With 'Genitals Cut Off' During Mop-Up Operations https://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-army-discovers-mutilated-bodies-genitals-cut-off-during-mop-operations-3614606

But sure, keep talking about being angry at Russians is the true evil here.

Sure, and throw these leather b**ch goblinettes on there as well....

But wait, isn't Dmitri an 'orc' too, even though he grew up in Estonia?  But it doesn't matter, murder and rapine is in his blood.

...After 6 months, this goes beyond 'angry.'  It's an ideological programme, aimed at justifying the violent expulsion of Russians, or anyone deemed to be Russian, or 'disloyal' or 'maybe disloyal' (all those are the same btw), from Ukraine.

Edited September 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...Yes, and allowance has been duly given throughout c1400 pages of discussion. In general, I don't address him unless he addresses me.

However, he also uses his righteous anger to push a quite nasty view of the irremediably barbarous nature of ALL Russians, now and forever, polities, groups or individuals.

.... While all Ukrainians absolutely should be preoccupied right now with the high velocity killing of all armed Russians occupying their country, a lot of our discussion here also circles around the fate of Russia and Russians postwar.

And whether some people here like it or not, Ukraine (and the world) is going be living and interacting with Russians long term. No sane adult is about to back some vile crusade to exterminate them, to occupy Russia, to wall Russians off from 'civilised' humanity, or any other such lunacy. They don't disappear into a flaming pit (unless most of us come with them....).

But sadly, there will be people who will try to pull that kind of thing within Ukraine after the victory, taking it upon themselves to decide by force who is an 'orc' or collaborator, on what will become increasingly thin evidence. Blood libel and collective guilt. First, it won't work. Second, it will utterly foul the fruits of victory, especially in Crimea.

IMHO, Crimea needs to go back to Ukraine (Russia's historical claims are now forfeit due to its terrible crimes, frankly) but WITH the population who lived there in 2014 enjoying the full rights of citizens. Regardless of their native tongue, which happens to be mainly Russian.

FWIW

To which I'd only add...the "no good Russian but a dead Russian" approach does a pretty bad job for talking about all of the Russians I personally know who abhor and are actively fighting against Putin as we speak. It's a complicated world out there folks, Russia is a pretty nasty autocracy and you personally haven't had to make the choices one makes in that environment. Here's hoping you never have to.