How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

There's another Rybar update about Kherson.  RU are of course, heroically defending, bombing and inflicting casualties. But despite that, Ukrainians are consolidating their gains, bring up S300 closer to the vicinity of Andryivka, and UA DRGs are trying to infiltrate to the outskirts of Beryslav itself. 
 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Huba

[Butschi]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

for sure not but people do vote with their feet and both China and Russia see more people voting to leave for the West than they see folks from the west immigrating.  When the gov't can just take away whatever you have or allow their cronies to do so with no legal repercussions it isn't just the freedoms but the sense of a rule of law.

True, although, according to this list https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate

(Beware, older numbers!) Russia had a net migration rate not far below the US and I have zero clue what people could want in Saudi Arabia...

Anyway, I think we are wrongly attributing the attractivenesd of western countries to democracy alone. IMO it is the combination of democracy, constitutional state and free market. The combination often results in a strong economy. Your point about the government not being able to just take away from you whatever you have adresses more the constitutional state (government being bound by the law) than democracy. You could have the same in, say, a constitutional monarchy.

What's more, I don't believe all those migrating to the EU or the US do so primarily because they are allowed to vote their or even because the government is bound by the law. Excluding refugees from wars, most come because the economical situation.

Having come full circle from my previous post: The atractiveness of our system comes, IMO, from the promise for a good/better life. If a democracy breaks or fails to uphold that promise, the system is in danger.

[Butschi]

Delete double post

Edited September 16, 2022 by Butschi

[chuckdyke]

Sorry, no translation available. But German artillery seems to have played a role. By the way they call the recent operation a counter offensive.

 

[chuckdyke]

33 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I have zero clue what people could want in Saudi Arabia...

They make money there. Saudi Arabia is the ultimate welfare state for the locals. Apart from the facilities of your five-star hotel there is not much else to do. Outside it is not unlike the Australian outback. Put it this way, a desert is an acquired taste. 

[FancyCat]

Partisan campaign seems to be ramping up. Something exploded in Luhansk, the LNR Prosecution HQ. I know partisan action has been escalating in Kherson, but I've not seen the same sort of stuff occur in the LNR and DPR or was I not seeing it merely?

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by FancyCat

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, chuckdyke said:

They make money there. Saudi Arabia is the ultimate welfare state for the locals. Apart from the facilities of your five-star hotel there is not much else to do. Outside it is not unlike the Australian outback. Put it this way, a desert is an acquired taste. 

What annoys me the most is how little the Arab world does to solve the refugee problem. 

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What annoys me the most is how little the Arab world does to solve the refugee problem. 

Watch Laurence of Arabia with the incident of the waterwell. The man who started to help himself got shot on the spot it was not on his territory. Once you say "Peace be with you" you get three months' hospitality and that is where it stops. The Muslim world may as well be on a different planet. But the thread is the Ukraine ethics Orthodox Christendom. 

[Huba]

UA HIMARSed Kherson and Luhansk administration buildings, reportedly in Kherson it was during a meeting of collaborationist officials:

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

12 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Indeed this is Ukraine has hystorical tradition of private armies. Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth nobles (under Lithuanian also means local Ruthenian (Ukrainan) nobles), ruling in the Ukrainian landsб had own armies and contested with Polish central power for own old rights if seen attempts of kings to strenght own power.

This is certainly right, I have only one quibble. Perhaps surprisingy, during the Commowealth today's Ukraine was mostly -if not entirely -  Polish Crown lands, not the Grand Duchy (Lithuanian) lands.

The Lithuanian Ruthenians would be today's Belarussians.

[Bulletpoint]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62922152

More from the Wagner prison recruitment drive.

He added a message to those who do not want mercenaries or prisoners to fight.

"It's either private military companies and prisoners, or your children - decide for yourself."

 

How about neither?

[Ultradave]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, but I'm not sure how relevant it really is.  He stated that his original rides were as old as Pterodactyles

Steve

P.S.  I had a UH-1 fly over me last weekend.  Forest Service around here still uses them.  Is it just me, or is the thump-thump-thump of its props kinda fun to listen to?

The point was to illustrate what I said at the end - the versatility of a lightweight 105mm howitzer to move and set up quickly, fire a bunch of rounds quickly, and then scoot somewhere else. The movement doesn't have to be by helicopter. A 105 isn't hard to tow around.

Maybe I should have just said that.

Dave

Edited September 16, 2022 by Ultradave

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

What is "Macedonian Style"?

 

It means that Prigozin is making early preparations to fight other oligarchs over posession of Putin's corpse, his wife and daughter and the ring with the inscription "to the strongest" as soon as Putin breaths his last.

In other words, surely a reference to the Diadochi Wars.

[riptides]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

They make money there. Saudi Arabia is the ultimate welfare state for the locals. Apart from the facilities of your five-star hotel there is not much else to do. Outside it is not unlike the Australian outback. Put it this way, a desert is an acquired taste. 

Max Skinner: What is it, Major Lawrence, that attracts you, personally, to the desert?

... Its clean. I like it because its clean

[chuckdyke]

13 minutes ago, riptides said:

Max Skinner: What is it, Major Lawrence, that attracts you, personally, to the desert?

You can see all of the Milky Way clearly. No artificial street lighting, during the day it is different, you need the cooler season. Summertime is as high as 50 C. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

For a change Ukrainians showing their incompetence.

some pointers:

• tracks are way too close to each other
• there should be a single track keeping the point so only it gets ambushed
• there should have been some recon element to notice this in advance  (fails to notice everything, I give that)
• seems like a split rout/defense. absolutely no control over these forces
• good example on the challenges of riding on top of the IFV. No cover from small arms fire and absolutely no maneuvering under small arms fire. Also command and control of the infantry squad(s) breaks up completely under fire.

In this situation point tanks should pop smoke, notify the company and dismount to closest available "cover" and engage in hasty defense. After this the whole point platoon does hasty defense and the company commander makes a fast decision on what to do. Common options: disengage or push though with the 2. and 3. platoons. And in either case the enemy position receives immediate fire from the battalion mortars.

at least this is how it would go in the Finnish military.

[kevinkin]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

5 million Ukrainian refugees are returning home!

Hope this is the case even at a fraction of the level cited. The number is so large it seems impossible that major news outlets are not having those special reports from the field with microphones in hand at checkpoints etc.. Bears watching. 5 million people moving back to a war torn country doesn't happen every day.  

 "If the active phase of the war lasts for a year or longer, even more people will leave the country. At least five million refugees are not expected to return home."

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/will-ukrainian-refugees-return-home

[The_MonkeyKing]

19 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

 

https://vxtwitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1570731489171738626?s=20&t=mKwzFvuAnt5sUKFgKw_cXA

Third wave of strikes on the dam.

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, gregb41352 said:

"P.S.  I had a UH-1 fly over me last weekend.  Forest Service around here still uses them.  Is it just me, or is the thump-thump-thump of its props kinda fun to listen to?"

Not if you were in Vietnam.

LOL!  I get the same thing from the H-47.

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

What is "Macedonian Style"?

 

 

9 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Never heard of this term myself.

Going by Grigb's post it sounds like some Russian term for dual wielding firearms. I did a Google search and this seems to be the case.

https://history.mk/fire-your-pistols-in-macedonian-style/

Well, what RU mean by saying Macedonian style is actually RU urban myth invented by Bogomolov (misspelled as Bogomilov in the article) for his novel "In August 1944" but presented by him as authentic for PR purposes. So, in reality nobody knows what is the proper way to shot Macedonian style. 

Historian Ulanov claims that the second version probably closer to truth - old 19 century revolvers used by Macedonians were notoriously slow to reload. So, most probably they basically shot from revolvers in turn, one after another and that's it. RU imperial officers probably experimented with it but stopped after the appearance of modern automatic pistols. Looks like Bogomolov heard the name from old imperial sources and thought it was a cool trick with the cool name and reimagined it. Ulanov also says the way Rogozin shots (two pistols close together) is most likely modern invention from around 90s.

BTW, the book is very good. If you can find the translated version, I strongly recommend reading it if you are interested in Red Army military Counter-int ops (SMERSH ops). The movie version is awful though, a waste of time. 

[Ts4EVER]

50 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Hope this is the case even at a fraction of the level cited. The number is so large it seems impossible that major news outlets are not having those special reports from the field with microphones in hand at checkpoints etc.. Bears watching. 5 million people moving back to a war torn country doesn't happen every day.  

 "If the active phase of the war lasts for a year or longer, even more people will leave the country. At least five million refugees are not expected to return home."

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/will-ukrainian-refugees-return-home

Kind of feel like a dick for saying it, but as a teacher I am glad. Compared to the Syrians and Afghans, the Ukrainian children are extremely unpleasant and undisciplined. I wonder what they are doing in schools there.

[akd]

10 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

I wonder what they are doing in schools there.

Not getting killed by Russians.

[Ts4EVER]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

Not getting killed by Russians.

Well yeah, but the Syrians and Afghans have to put up with a lot, if not more, as well, and they tend to know how to sit still and show at least some motivation. But this is not the place for that.

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Ukrainian children are extremely unpleasant and undisciplined

Heh, clearly never taught in US or Canada.  Unpleasant, undisciplined and lawyered up.

[chuckdyke]

In Australia there is a chronic shortage of teachers for some reason lol