How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Then the writer should just say so. Dropping the term non-linear adds nothing other than asking the reader to guess what they mean. You see, I come away with the opposite - they don't expect repeats of Kharkiv into the winter which might lead to a step wise defeat of Russia in Ukraine in short order. If they expect a major winter slow down, just be clear about it.  

It's a large bureaucracy speaking into a political environment and they can't predict unlooked for events. If they try to and are wrong, they get pilloried for it. And if they try to and are wrong, they could damage political support for the war. So the language remains oblique and cautious. That may annoy you but it's smart comms.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yep, yep, yep. And one of the options that is narrowing is escalating the war beyond conventional means. Both Xi and Modi have made it publicly clear that they aren't happy and want Russia to negotiate an end. I'd suspect the private exchanges were more blunt still

So taking a look back to WWI era - Germany referred to the Austro-Hungarian Empire as an ally as "fighting while shackled to a corpse"

Right now China has to be thinking "this is like competing while shackled to a zombie".  The damn thing just wants to "eat near abroad" so that it can stay afloat for a few more decades...every time...all the freakin time!  How are they supposed to deliver on a 500 year campaign for global supremacy when their 'guy' keeps lunging erratically?!

As we discussed, it even looked like Russia was getting good (or maybe just lucky) with more nuanced plays...and then it went all "brains!!" in '22 - complete with war crimes!  Seriously, I would cut these guys loose as well if I were China and India.  

Edited September 16, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

The Ukrainians are trying to deal with their worst collaborator problems now, in wartime conditions, instead of having them clogging up the legal system for a decade. They want the bad actors face down in a ditch or living in a hovel on the outskirts of Rostov on Don when the shooting stops, either one is just vastly easier.

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I read this as a bit of a spin piece to be honest.  I think the fear is that if Ukraine has "won" than why do we need to keep supporting them?  "They have not won, this will be a long fight = long term support".  As opposed to a military operations assessment.

The weather break will be the muddy season, not winter.  Winter warfare is harder in some ways and easier in others - ground firms up, wetlands can become like pavement.  Water obstacles freeze over and disease goes down - frostbite goes up.

Ukraine is re-setting and reloading because they made enormous gains.  I do not expect the Fall 22 offensives are over yet, maybe in a month or so.  Next ops are going to be continuous pressure on Kherson, slow biting there has a good chance of become another RA collapse.  Then the UA has to be thinking about "the middle".

As to how long this last - who frickin knows?  All we can say is that the strategic initiative has shifted and Russia is on the defensive; this was a key moment we were looking for.  How fast the UA can make gains is anyone's bet.  No one predicted the speed it occurred around Kharkiv - Kherson makes more sense for this war...slow...then fast.  The UA make switch back to Deep Strike campaigns to further stress the RA operational system, and then pulse out again after the mud clears.

All war is negotiation and sacrifice - the Russians seem to be the ones dealing with that space right now - less so Ukraine: they know all about sacrifice but are looking much less inclined to negotiate.  I will go back to a re-occurring theme: options. Russia now has the fewest military options it has had in this war - offensive appears off the table entirely, defensive is getting narrower as positions get tenuous and capability erodes (corrosive warfare - attrit the entire system, not just the front end).  The compression on those options lays out like a schematic basically all the way back to 24 Feb.  So Russia either needs to turn that around - and I am at a loss on how they can (nukes has been discussed and largely dismissed), or they start to explore other options in the diplomatic space.

Frankly short of a significant ally jumping in on the side of Russia - and now we are at how important relationships are - and no one is looking to do that, went way out on a branch on that one Vlad, Russia remains largely isolated and increasingly fragile. 

For the "what do we do next" problem space; establish some tangible objectives; confirm long term support to the end of the conflict, into post-conflict; get serious about national reconstruction and integration of Ukraine into the western sphere, and; start thinking about how we are going to manage the post-Ukraine War realities.  

Capt we don't deserve you, but my God do we appreciate you!

[hcrof]

Can anyone comment on this Twitter thread? Seems to imply the Kherson front is reaching a breaking point, but the maps are not nearly as good as Grigb's:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1570740207892434946

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Can anyone comment on this Twitter thread? Seems to imply the Kherson front is reaching a breaking point, but the maps are not nearly as good as Grigb's:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1570740207892434946

Russia moved a LOT of its remaining decent troops to Kherson, this has obviously made the fighting much harder than where those troops were removed from. But the logistics of the Kherson pocket are physically impossible, when the VDV are short enough on ammo and everything else they WILL give up or get out. That point is probably getting much closer. And there is a huge non linearity as the AFU can range the river crossings with standard 155. That is when the Russian situation goes from very bad to just over.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Can anyone comment on this Twitter thread? Seems to imply the Kherson front is reaching a breaking point, but the maps are not nearly as good as Grigb's:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1570740207892434946

So to my eyes this is classic fog-eating-snow attrition to manoeuvre.  However, it is really less about where the UA is, or has made gains - ground taken is not the metric in play on this front, it is the erosion of the Russian operational system.  We need to be looking for signs that the Russian defensive system is failing. 

The fact that the UA has all the LOCs and the RA is fighting on the wrong side of the river is a damned good indicator that the RA system will fail; however, how long it will hold out is tied to indicators like - volume of fire, abandoned vehicle (particularly high value stuff) with empty gas tanks, deserters, Russian units turning on each other, abandoned allies and surrenders.

Terrain is still fine but it does not tell the story on this front as well as these others.  Qualitative analysis of the RA is what is needed at Kherson...until it becomes fast, then we can go back to terrain.

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Can anyone comment on this Twitter thread? Seems to imply the Kherson front is reaching a breaking point, but the maps are not nearly as good as Grigb's:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1570740207892434946

I'm trying to keep track of the progress there the best I can, using the few RU Telegram channels, as UA hardly reports anything. So from what I gathered:

- on the north around Vysokopilia it seems there's not that much going on lately

- as for the bridgehead in the middle he seems to be in alignment with what Rybars reports. UA managed to widen it along the Inhulets. What he didn't mention is that seemingly the bridghead is getting even deeper, with Rybar explicitly informing that UA recce groups entering Charivne 2 days ago, and trying to infiltrate up to Beryslav itself.

- regarding the area arond Kherson city, it is very hard to get a clear picture, fog of war is very thick there. UA reported of capturing Kyselivka maybe 3 days ago, but withdrew the statement and said it is contested. DItto for Ternove Pody, last time I heard it mentioned it was recaptured by RU.
I didn't hear anything about taking Sofiivka, paint me skeptical about that. Areas around Shuhirivka are hardly mentioned anywhere, no idea about these either.

Here's latest Rybar map of the bridghead:

Edited September 16, 2022 by Huba

[kevinkin]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

they could damage political support for the war. So the language remains oblique and cautious.

If the language has to be oblique to maintain support for an unjust war like this one, that's a topic for whole other discussion . I think the world will give the large bureaucracy a pass on exact predictions given the documented extent of Russian war crimes. With Putin and Russia, its probably smarter to be as direct as possible. But the article was probably meant for a difference audience anyway. 

[Huba]

Some reports incoming about UA pushing russians from eastern part of Kupyansk . There's a vid that hopefully will soon be geolocated (dead bodies, watch at your own discretion):

And a video where Kraken soldiers says they are in the eastern Kupyansk:

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So taking a look back to WWI era - Germany referred to the Austro-Hungarian Empire as an ally as "fighting while shackled to a corpse"

Right now China has to be thinking "this is like competing while shackled to a zombie".  The damn thing just wants to "eat near abroad" so that it can stay afloat for a few more decades...every time...all the freakin time!  How are they supposed to deliver on a 500 year campaign for global supremacy when their 'guy' keeps lunging erratically?!

As we discussed, it even looked like Russia was getting good (or maybe just lucky) with more nuanced plays...and then it went all "brains!!" in '22 - complete with war crimes!  Seriously, I would cut these guys loose as well if I were China and India.  

One thing that still worries people is that the Russians seem so obtuse and isolated that they might not really get the message. That's why Xi made the statement about Kazakhstan and why both Xi and Modi were so blunt about Ukraine. Like Austria-Hungary then, Russia seems to be violently drifting along without quite coming to terms with what's happened. There's a strange national mental collapse going on in Moscow and while I'm happy India/China seem to be pulling in the right direction, I think a lot of folks have the nagging worry that Russia just can't hear it. We'll see. 

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

If the language has to be oblique to maintain support for an unjust war like this one, that's a topic for whole other discussion . I think the world will give the large bureaucracy a pass on exact predictions given the documented extent of Russian war crimes. With Putin and Russia, its probably smarter to be as direct as possible. But the article was probably meant for a difference audience anyway. 

Anybody who reads this thread knows orders of magnitude more about this war than the general public. Add another order of magnitude because you probably already knew the difference between a a tank, an IFV, and a self propelled gun. The stuff in the mainline newspapers is not written for this audience.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

One thing that still worries people is that the Russians seem so obtuse and isolated that they might not really get the message. That's why Xi made the statement about Kazakhstan and why both Xi and Modi were so blunt about Ukraine. Like Austria-Hungary then, Russia seems to be violently drifting along without quite coming to terms with what's happened. There's a strange national mental collapse going on in Moscow and while I'm happy India/China seem to be pulling in the right direction, I think a lot of folks have the nagging worry that Russia just can't hear it. We'll see. 

No parallels there with 1917, not at all...

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Ultradave said:

The point was to illustrate what I said at the end - the versatility of a lightweight 105mm howitzer to move and set up quickly, fire a bunch of rounds quickly, and then scoot somewhere else. The movement doesn't have to be by helicopter. A 105 isn't hard to tow around.

Maybe I should have just said that.

Dave

Your personal account was spot on relevant even to today.  Thanks for that.  My quip was just pointing out that you're no longer a young whipper snapper.  In case you weren't aware

Steve

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The Ukrainians are trying to deal with their worst collaborator problems now, in wartime conditions, instead of having them clogging up the legal system for a decade. They want the bad actors face down in a ditch or living in a hovel on the outskirts of Rostov on Don when the shooting stops, either one is just vastly easier.

The list of people, the ones killed in Berdyansk, married couple, a deputy mayor? and a administrator in charge of setting up a referendum. Luhansk, the Prosecutor General, someone else with more info can chime in, sounds like someone in charge of locating, arresting and trialing those who support Ukraine, so these killings are probably mainly aimed at frustrating Russian goals to annexing territories and to support the partisans operating in occupied territory. 

Edited September 16, 2022 by FancyCat

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The list of people, the ones killed in Berdyansk, married couple, a deputy mayor? and a administrator in charge of setting up a referendum. Luhansk, the Prosecutor General, someone else with more info can chime in, sounds like someone in charge of locating, arresting and trialing those who support Ukraine, so these killings are probably mainly aimed at frustrating Russian goals to annexing territories and to support the partisans operating in occupied territory. 

This is my take on that too. We are not used to that stuff really, but looking at occupied Europe during WW2, this is exactly the same thing going on. Becoming a collaborator, especially a high profile one, is a very risky career path, and rightfully so.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So Russia either needs to turn that around - and I am at a loss on how they can (nukes has been discussed and largely dismissed), or they start to explore other options in the diplomatic space.

You may scoff but this is a shot of the newly forming 4th Guards Parking Garage corp that will spearhead the winter offensive to take Kiev,

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by sburke

[Zeleban]

The armament of quadrocopters is getting stronger

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

For a change Ukrainians showing their incompetence.

some pointers:

• tracks are way too close to each other
• there should be a single track keeping the point so only it gets ambushed
• there should have been some recon element to notice this in advance  (fails to notice everything, I give that)
• seems like a split rout/defense. absolutely no control over these forces
• good example on the challenges of riding on top of the IFV. No cover from small arms fire and absolutely no maneuvering under small arms fire. Also command and control of the infantry squad(s) breaks up completely under fire.

In this situation point tanks should pop smoke, notify the company and dismount to closest available "cover" and engage in hasty defense. After this the whole point platoon does hasty defense and the company commander makes a fast decision on what to do. Common options: disengage or push though with the 2. and 3. platoons. And in either case the enemy position receives immediate fire from the battalion mortars.

at least this is how it would go in the Finnish military.

That was a difficult video to watch.  It shows how much damage a panicking IFV driver can cause.  He crushed two of his own men, one of which was clearly not dead before he got run over.

The primary problem with this was lack of recon.  Why were these guys dismounting right in front of an enemy position?!?  If nobody had put eyes on this position before hand then they should have dismounted at a distance and advanced on foot with the IFVs providing covering fire.  And I don't get why the drone was there!  If it was Ukrainian then they didn't use it correctly, so I'm guessing it was Russian and they were tracking the Ukrainian advance well ahead of time and waited until they were up close.

The IFVs in this circumstance should have lit up the enemy and NOT tried withdrawing.  They were in too close for withdrawal and should have known the infantry would be bailing off and be all around the vehicle.  But the drivers, especially in the lead BMP, completely lost it.  The commanders of those vehicles were either equally panicked or were ineffective in commanding themselves.

But the biggest thing to take away from this is the utter pointlessness of having armored vehicles where everybody rides on top.  Might as well outfit units with pickup trucks.

Steve

[kevinkin]

Looks like Putin and X are attending a funeral. I trust it's a metaphor for the future. 

[Zeleban]

 

[Huba]

DefMon approved geolocation of UA troops in eastern Kupyansk:

 

[Ts4EVER]

52 minutes ago, billbindc said:

One thing that still worries people is that the Russians seem so obtuse and isolated that they might not really get the message. That's why Xi made the statement about Kazakhstan and why both Xi and Modi were so blunt about Ukraine. Like Austria-Hungary then, Russia seems to be violently drifting along without quite coming to terms with what's happened. There's a strange national mental collapse going on in Moscow and while I'm happy India/China seem to be pulling in the right direction, I think a lot of folks have the nagging worry that Russia just can't hear it. We'll see. 

Sounds like they need some kind of "intervention" by China and India. Not the normal state-like intervention, mind you, but one where Putin comes into the conference room one day and everyone is there going "It is about the invasions." and then they all read out their statements one by one etc.

[Battlefront.com]

Saw this from the Smarkand conference (WA Post article, rest not relevant to us):

Quote

Bluntly challenged by Indian Prime Minister Nerandra Modi over the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday said that Russia would strive to stop the conflict “as soon as possible” but then blamed Ukraine for refusing to negotiate, though Putin ordered the invasion and his troops are still occupying a large swath of Ukrainian territory.

 

Putin’s remarks came during an appearance with Modi, in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where they are attending a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

This is an interesting development.  Russia's few remaining allies (or at least not enemies) are apparently getting nervous about their own domestic situations being made worse by Russian idiocy.  And now, finally, are apply some degree of pressure for him to end the war.  Their motivations for this pressure may be totally selfish, but it amounts to the same thing.  Which is Putin is now under pressure from pretty much the entire world to end the war.

A major problem with Russia's reasons for this war is that there was never much hope of other governments buying them at face value.  Governments know this is a naked power grab under the guise of long standing grievances which, supposedly, could not be resolved any other way.  Because of that there's not much in the way of governmental sympathy for Russia's actions in the context of causing domestic problems.

This is an interesting development.  Russia should be worried that prolonging the war will, certainly, take what little is left of its international power (economic and military) and chucking it into the bin with what has already been destroyed.  I suspect Putin is thinking much shorter term than that, so I don't know how much real impact this will have on the war itself.  Long term though, I think we might consider India lost to the Russians.

Steve

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I HATE watching Ukrainians lose a round. The ride on top thing seems to be a combination of how awful Soviet/Russian IFVs are to ride inside, and the risk of land mines thought to be as high or higher than small arms fire. 

In Finnish military there is also some doctrine for tank riding. This is riding on an MBT.

Tank riding is done when closing in with the enemy. Around last kilometer or so only. Only done in dense terrain (or one terrain feature away from danger) and only when the enemy contact line is well known. Infantry dismounts according to premade plan in a safe location and continues on foot with the tanks.

This is when IFVs are not available for one reason or another. For example the final closing in with the enemy. In Finland likely scenario would be a planned prepared assault in a very dense forest with a very small road(s). No room for the IFVs to come with the tanks and LoS is so low the tank riding is safe (when enemy positions are known). Also because of the short LoS the infantry is also needed close to the tanks.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Right now China has to be thinking "this is like competing while shackled to a zombie".  The damn thing just wants to "eat near abroad" so that it can stay afloat for a few more decades...every time...all the freakin time!  How are they supposed to deliver on a 500 year campaign for global supremacy when their 'guy' keeps lunging erratically?!

As we discussed, it even looked like Russia was getting good (or maybe just lucky) with more nuanced plays...and then it went all "brains!!" in '22 - complete with war crimes!  Seriously, I would cut these guys loose as well if I were China and India.  

Oddly enough, this is better imaging than the watermellon stuff from yesterday

Steve