How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

Maybe he means his actual land, like the future Belgorod People's Republic.

[Markus86]

Edit: Haiduk explained that this is an old video from 2016 and shows an ukrainian vehicle. 

Do you guys remember when the amphibious ability of vehicles was discussed (epically failed river crossing)?
Someone explained how important maintenance is, to ensure this ability. 

Guess how this bmp ends, trying to cross a river ...

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Markus86
correction of facts

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

What happens if a tactical nucleair is dropped?

- How big are those booms?

- Will one tactical nuke suffice?

- Is it very useful against a fluid Ukrainian Army?

- Will it make a real difference on the battlefield? (Not talking about politic repercussions or Nato retaliation).

 

 

- Not standardized, but bigger than a MOAB and smaller than Hiroshima.

- No. One tactical nuke will have no impact whatsoever (other than to piss everyone off). Nukes are big, but not that big.

- Yes, if they use enough of them.

- Yes, if they use enough of them.

A couple points to consider

1. Using enough tactical nukes to make a difference on the battlefield will use up a chunk of their stock, which they might prefer to keep in reserve for that upcoming war with NATO that they're so paranoid about.

2. The rest of the world has a nuclear taboo to enforce, and I expect Russia knows it. If they use even a single tactical nuke, the West has to respond in some way that severely punishes Russia for breaking the nuclear taboo (probably not with a nuclear response though, unless Russian nukes hit NATO territory).

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, riptides said:

I think tac-nukes are off the table. The situation is so fluid there is no "mass" that will allow anyone to gain anything from their use. The cities are still under Russian "control", and I am sure those Russian units in the field are really hard pressed to actually report their positions at the moment, let alone where they will be in 8-24 hours.

 

 

Good point. The Russian kill chain is slow enough that it seems unlikely they could accurately target a moving Ukrainian unit. And the force to space ratios are still sparse enough that a hit on a Ukrainian unit with a tac-nuke might only result in casualties in the low hundreds, or perhaps even the high dozens.

[Huba]

Would somebody stop slicing the damn onions?

Oh, and here are some excerpts from Russian TV:

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Do you guys remember when the amphibious ability of vehicles was discussed (epically failed river crossing)?
Someone explained how important maintenance is, to ensure this ability. 

Guess how this bmp ends, trying to cross a river ...

 

This is Ukrainin BMP on maneuvers in 2016. Known video )

[Haiduk]

Rare BMP-2M was captured on Kherson direction

[pavel.k]

58 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Anyone has a link to the original video?

Haven't been following as closely lately because time, although it's good to see the big booms in Russia's rear are now being followed up by big breakthroughs into the strategic rear terrain. As it is the start of the weekend here I'd like to say Nasdrovia to everyone in the thread!  

It seems that finally we have come to the phase of the house of cards, more specifically the 'kicking it down' episode.

Although I was expecting the Ukraine offensive(s) to face heavy Russian defenses for at least a while, but it seems more like the culmination of a CM PBEM: when either yourself or your opponent discovers (after much of the game has been played) that large parts of the frontline now consist of a token defense only: spare drivers / HQ support teams / stragglers, any worthwhile fighting formation already committed in previous endeavors. 

Izium looking interesting as well. 

Here is the video

I think i know what he felt. I have had a heavy wound and was in similar shock (even though i do not understand how he could keep to filming it). And yet i wish from my full heart the same experience to all Russian occupants.  

[Letter from Prague]

19 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Good point. The Russian kill chain is slow enough that it seems unlikely they could accurately target a moving Ukrainian unit. And the force to space ratios are still sparse enough that a hit on a Ukrainian unit with a tac-nuke might only result in casualties in the low hundreds, or perhaps even the high dozens.

Yeah, if the orcs do use WMDs, it will for sure be a terror campaign.

I don't think they will. Unlike people who fight for something they actually believe in, or people defending themselves, who fight when backed into a corner, cowardly bullies tend to give up, feign friendliness and wait for next opportunity to mess with someone.

In case of military collapse, I think we're more likely to see Navalny on the throne pretending peaceful and changed Russia (while trying to keep Crimea and not actually doing anything differently than Putin - with Macron, Scholz and Orban helping him with both) rather than a nuclear campaign.

But I'm sure we will see soon enough. Maybe the abuser mentality of "I can't have what I want so I'm gonna hurt random people out of spite" will prevail over cowardice. Maybe nuclear winter saves us from global warming! (Sorry I'm in a dark mood.)

Edited September 9, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Vanir Ausf B]

Ouch

 

[Seedorf81]

23 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

- Not standardized, but bigger than a MOAB and smaller than Hiroshima.

- No. One tactical nuke will have no impact whatsoever (other than to piss everyone off). Nukes are big, but not that big.

- Yes, if they use enough of them.

- Yes, if they use enough of them.

A couple points to consider

1. Using enough tactical nukes to make a difference on the battlefield will use up a chunk of their stock, which they might prefer to keep in reserve for that upcoming war with NATO that they're so paranoid about.

2. The rest of the world has a nuclear taboo to enforce, and I expect Russia knows it. If they use even a single tactical nuke, the West has to respond in some way that severely punishes Russia for breaking the nuclear taboo (probably not with a nuclear response though, unless Russian nukes hit NATO territory).

Thank you. Much appreciated.

[cesmonkey]

On 9/8/2022 at 9:15 AM, Bufo said:

Deputies in St. Petersburg suggest State Duma charge Putin with high treason

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5557492?from=top_main_9
Municipal deputies were summoned to court after a call to try the president for launching a special operation in Ukraine

[sburke]

49 minutes ago, IanL said:

I'm not so sure about not triggering Article 5. If there are radio active clouds moving across Europe I think there would be many people, my self included, who would say that is a reasonable argument for an Article 5 violation.

They don't need article 5.  Poland could just decide on their own to join the fight with Ukraine.  

[Letter from Prague]

1 minute ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Ouch

 

What was it? Probably not a Javelin, since the camera survived.

[Haiduk]

Yesterday UKR hit Russian checkpoint in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia oblast. Today became knowingly, there was destroyed newest Russian EW complex 1L267 Moskva-1 (57 millions $). This is passive ELINT station, which can detect flying objects and as claimed develpers even artilelry shell trajectories, transmit information on other EW or AD control vehicles and control itself over some other EW complexes. Up to 2016 Russian should receive 9 1L267 complexes.

Complex contains three KAMAZ vehciles

[Lethaface]

14 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Here is the video

I think i know what he felt. I have had a heavy wound and was in similar shock (even though i do not understand how he could keep to filming it). And yet i wish from my full heart the same experience to all Russian occupants.  

Thanks. 
I guess because adrenaline 'everything went past him' and he kept filming because that's what he was doing before. 

[akd]

Looks like they also captured a Zoopark-1M counter-battery system:

 

[kraze]

21 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yeah, if the orcs do use WMDs, it will for sure be a terror campaign.

I don't think they will. Unlike people who fight for something they actually believe in, or people defending themselves, who fight when backed into a corner, cowardly bullies tend to give up, feign friendliness and wait for next opportunity to mess with someone.

In case of military collapse, I think we're more likely to see Navalny on the throne pretending peaceful and changed Russia (while trying to keep Crimea and not actually doing anything differently than Putin - with Macron, Scholz and Orban helping him with both) rather than a nuclear campaign.

But I'm sure we will see soon enough. Maybe the abuser mentality of "I can't have what I want so I'm gonna hurt random people out of spite" will prevail over cowardice. Maybe nuclear winter saves us from global warming! (Sorry I'm in a dark mood.)

We already have a joke here:

- let's all greet our new tsar - Khuilo II

- but my name's Aleksei!

- sorry, it's our russian tradition now

[acrashb]

2 hours ago, akd said:

oh dear...

There's so much wrong with that.  Again, we need tank riders in the next version of CM  - how else will someone do a ByteBattle(™) of this Russian-style Thunder Run?

58 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

...Ukrainain SOF...

Note that they are wearing the crème-de-la-crème of ballistic eye wear, the Smith Optics Aegis Echo II.  So they are well-funded and equipped. 

30 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Good point. The Russian kill chain is slow enough that it seems unlikely they could accurately target a moving Ukrainian unit. And the force to space ratios are still sparse enough that a hit on a Ukrainian unit with a tac-nuke might only result in casualties in the low hundreds, or perhaps even the high dozens.

see comment below

15 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yeah, if the orcs do use WMDs, it will for sure be a terror campaign.

Even if they do, what percentage of their missiles (AFAIK the only viable delivery options) have been shot down throughout the war, and in the last month or so given improvements in AD?  The likelihood of a given nuke getting on target is low; the humiliation - and negative effects close to those of a successful detonation - of having one shot down and debris recovered is high.  So they would need to do volleys, which would ratchet up whatever response would come from a single detonation.

As long as there are rational actors giving orders, no tactical nukes will be in play.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Mattias said:

The thing is, that at the same time I genuinely believe that “we” are fighting for certain values. Values that does not really include the unnecessary degradation of human beings (that definitely being everyone of us).

Generally agree.  However, there are times when it is important to remind our fellow Humans that they are in the wrong.  Ridicule is a time honored tradition of doing just that.  And the more violent, the more dangerous, the wrong person is, the more latitude for ridicule.

2 hours ago, Mattias said:

My point here, in the forum context, is that he did’t post that video, made into a meme, on this forum. “We” did that. And what does that say about us?

He did volunteer to fight a war of aggression.  He did film his adventures.  And he chose to upload it for the world to see.  All we chose to do is how to react to it.  The meme was fairly reasonable.  It could have questioned his humanity or directly celebrating his bad experience.  Instead, whomever made the meme chose to lampoon the man's stated mission (militarily reinforce a fascist war of aggression) with the reality (he failed at his mission).

If I were a referee I'd call "fair play!" on this one for sure.  Wait, I am a referee

2 hours ago, Mattias said:

 

That said, I have zero interest in a prolonged discussion on this point. I love the thread and follow it religiously for all it gives. It really is a haven of sanity and life-affirming absurdity.

Please consider my post a soft voice, whispering in your ear as we roll along the colonnades on our triumph.

Duly noted and appreciated

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

37 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Here is the video

I think i know what he felt. I have had a heavy wound and was in similar shock (even though i do not understand how he could keep to filming it). And yet i wish from my full heart the same experience to all Russian occupants.  

That's war. And that's what they've asked for. Don't understand all the hypocracy about some bleeding Russians.

[acrashb]

In the midst of jubilance due to the apparent success of the UA offensive, someone has, as of yesterday, posted names / info purportedly of the Wagner group's in-theatre troops:
https://sarahashtoncirillo.substack.com/p/update-monsters-wagner-mercenary

It passes a virus scan on my computer.  Thought someone here might have a use for it.

 

As for the rest of this thread:

 

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Note that they are wearing the crème-de-la-crème of ballistic eye wear, the Smith Optics Aegis Echo II.  So they are well-funded and equipped. 

Yup, a lot of soldiers on photos are very well armed. And these blue and yellow tapes are extremely flashy, I wonder if they don't interfere with fighting in bushes.

The source of the info says it was not this Zoopark and we will know maybe in several days. There was an Iskander Artillery unit from Kaliningrad, maybe something in this direction?

[The_MonkeyKing]

49 minutes ago, Huba said:

Would somebody stop slicing the damn onions?

Oh, and here are some excerpts from Russian TV:

 

Great post!

[akd]

Seems like a call intercept from inside the Izium pocket:

 

The "Corps" that is finished may refer to Kaliningrad's 11th Army Corps.