How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

what town?  province?

 

[pavel.k]

41 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Video reportedly from V.Burluk from today. That means Ukrainian attack has northern prong as well :

Advancing so far to the north, it looks like Ukrainians are sure, there won't be any major counter attack from Russians. So the third parallel offensive is very likely, i guess.

[kevinkin]

With the Ukraine on a leash tied to western assistance, it interesting to see if their focus will be on the destruction of Russian occupying forces first and then retaking their country's territory second. The later seems certain. So why risk failing to entrap the enemy when agreed to limits of their advance are guaranteed anyway. Have to take a closer look at the maps. Perhaps both can be achieved simultaneously. 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Advancing so far to the north, it looks like Ukrainians are sure, there won't be any major counter attack from Russians. So the third parallel offensive is very likely, i guess.

just looked up that town -- it is WAY inside 'russian' territory.  Kinda worried about over extension but hopefullly there's enough well armed infantry to ambush any counterattacks.  OK to give some ground in exchange for smashing RU mobile columns.

 

[CAZmaj]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

With the Ukraine on a leash tied to western assistance, it interesting to see if their focus will be on the destruction of Russian occupying forces first and then retaking their country's territory second. The later seems certain. So why risk failing to entrap the enemy when agreed to limits of their advance are guaranteed anyway. Have to take a closer look at the maps. Perhaps both can be achieved simultaneously. 

...Ukraine on a LEASH tied to...ugly, lazy wording

[kraze]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

I've always thought of the end of Putin as some kind of coup.  But maybe it doesn't look like that.  Maybe that vote by the council in St Petersburg means something.  What if regional gov'ts decide on their own to stop taking orders from Putin.  Putin's power stems from men w guns ready to make people follow orders.  What if regional govts are able to muster enough rifles & men to just say 'no!' when a dozen FSB men show up?  

Maybe Putin's fall is just from various entities around Russia simply refusing to take his orders, condemning him, and having enough local firepower to back it up since the army is rather busy being destroyed.

Or, better yet, once russian army is done for good here (even if there are reserves but they are all stuck here defending whatever they occupied) - we can see almost simultaneous actions of Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan (and whatever entities inside the empire itself) taking back their land. Problem isn't putin, his fall solves nothing. Empire must collapse.

I mean we already see how russians are incapable of defending whatever they occupy in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan already treads carefully, yet surely, to retake what was stolen from them - only because they aren't sure yet if they can take on russian army, once it stops pretending to be "peaceful local citizens from Karabakh's People's Republic"

Edited September 9, 2022 by kraze

[BletchleyGeek]

I am personally looking forward to see how many reputed experts claiming that "looking at the tactical, open source intelligence details obfuscates the big picture", that also have completely failed to even imagine this Ukrainian operation was possible are going to try to somersault into the position of "having called out this all along". It baffles me that one can construct a - true to reality - "big picture" without taking into their consideration any data at all.

I found the video of the Ukrainian soldiers singing their national anthem quite poignant. A country whose "national music" goes well to the tune of the violin deserves to be free and prosperous.

Edited September 9, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[kevinkin]

11 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

...Ukraine on a LEASH tied to...ugly, lazy wording

Not sure what you mean.

[danfrodo]

24 minutes ago, kraze said:

Or, better yet, once russian army is done for good here (even if there are reserves but they are all stuck here defending whatever they occupied) - we can see almost simultaneous actions of Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan (and whatever entities inside the empire itself) taking back their land. Problem isn't putin, his fall solves nothing. Empire must collapse.

I mean we already see how russians are incapable of defending whatever they occupy in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan already treads carefully, yet surely, to retake what was stolen from them - only because they aren't sure yet if they can take on russian army, once it stops pretending to be "peaceful local citizens from Karabakh's People's Republic"

I think we're agreeing.  End of RU empire via folks just saying 'no' and Putin having no strength to contest it.  Say Belgorod regions goes independent, saying to the world "hey take sanctions off us, we're not Russia anymore" and hoping to join the (relatively more) civilized & prosperous community of nations.  Maybe Belarus, while not part of RU, overthrows dictator & says "we're not bad, trade w us".  I would love to see Putin in charge of nothing more than the duchy of muscovy and it's local environs.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Read the whole thread! Not just me BSing.

Well this is very encouraging.  We probably need to wait another few days to really get a better idea but the long awaited, and forecasted collapse looks like it may be happening.  How complete a collapse is still in the air, as is whether or not the RA can re-establish defensive lines.

That said if this keeps going at its current pace we had better move the conversation to Ukraine’s reconstruction - and dealing with a possible violent fracture in Russia.

[Calamine Waffles]

T-64BM2, so most likely the 92 OMBr.

[Gpig]

Wolves in the forest. So spooky! Especially with that Raven call in the distance.

[Beleg85]

Good sum up by Mick Ryan:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1568390526734598145.html

Dir. Burns stating obvious, byt if somebody has NYTimes access perhaps worth to read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/08/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-cia.html

Edited September 10, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

I'd say it's a Freudian mistake. I was saying till all of that started, that I'll be disappointed if we won't see another Siege of Sevastopol. Seeing what is happening in the last few days, the Zeitgeist might yet humor me :0 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Video reportedly from V.Burluk from today. That means Ukrainian attack has northern prong as well :

Maybe they just got care packages from home and someone dropped a cigarette butt.

[chrisl]

43 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Good sum up by Mick Ryan:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1568390526734598145.html

Dir. Burns stating obvious, byt if somebody has NYTimes access perhaps worth to read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/08/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-cia.html

NY article was kinda short and doesn't say anything we didn't already know "Vlad is surrounded by yes men who let him miscalculate very badly.  Russia forgot how to do war.  They're screwed for a long time, both militarily and economically" 

[dan/california]

Wins the internet today.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Wins the internet today.

Well, that will certainly help at the front for RU.  Good time to make jokes, when you have ~30,000 troops cut off due to stupidity of your beloved dictator.  Even if some escape UKR gets all the vehicles and supplies left behind.  What vatnik can't find humor in that? 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by danfrodo
edit

[acrashb]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Maybe that vote by the council in St Petersburg means something.  What if regional gov'ts decide on their own to stop taking orders from Putin.

Someone earlier said it was a nothing council in a suburb (or something like that), Steve replied that it was tea leaves.

I think that what it means is: some people, reasonably plugged in and informed, have decided that Putin hasn't the energy, loyalty, or bandwidth to have them killed.  Once others see this and follow, the dam bursts, and nothing Putin wants happens. 

At that time, as you say, regional governments can just do what they want without serious fear of retribution.  In the West there is a mesh of governance - someone doesn't want to play ball?  Seize their bank accounts.  Or somefink, many options - sue them civilly, bring criminal charges at different levels of government, withhold highway funds, and so on.  In Russia, I have the impression that governance is centralized, so when the centre gives orders and they are ignored, there is less of a plan B.

[danfrodo]

Site I go to published this today in summary of latest in the war:

"And really, this offensive is truly possible to all those Territorial Defense Force units stuck in trenches up and down the front for the past six months, getting slammed daily, oftentimes feeling abandoned. Their impossible heroism allowed Ukraines regular army units and 300,000 reserves to prepare in the country’s west, while Western allies equipped and trained them in proper war fighting techniques."

While we're feeling good about progress it's good to remember who's months of suffering and deaths made this possible. 

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I think we're agreeing.  End of RU empire via folks just saying 'no' and Putin having no strength to contest it.  Say Belgorod regions goes independent, saying to the world "hey take sanctions off us, we're not Russia anymore" and hoping to join the (relatively more) civilized & prosperous community of nations.  Maybe Belarus, while not part of RU, overthrows dictator & says "we're not bad, trade w us".  I would love to see Putin in charge of nothing more than the duchy of muscovy and it's local environs.

 

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well this is very encouraging.  We probably need to wait another few days to really get a better idea but the long awaited, and forecasted collapse looks like it may be happening.  How complete a collapse is still in the air, as is whether or not the RA can re-establish defensive lines.

That said if this keeps going at its current pace we had better move the conversation to Ukraine’s reconstruction - and dealing with a possible violent fracture in Russia.

There are two or three hard first questions. Are we trying to keep Russia together or break it apart? Are we trying to make Russia pay for all of the damage to Ukraine? Or is the risk of Versailles type bitterness too high if we just seize half of their oil and gas revenue for the next twenty years? Extracting real money from them pretty much requires that Moscow remain in control of the whole country? What is the best way to unwind 500 years of bad government and worse decisions while trying to keep a handle on several thousand nukes? Are treaties with the current Russian government even possible given the extent to which they lie about everything, all the time?

Secondary considerations, how much do we care if China benefits at Russian expense? would a relatively free hand in Russia convince China it has better things to do than destroy the world economy by attacking Taiwan? Can we break the the lock the current Moscow elite has on the oil and gas revenue? Is ANYTHING resembling decent, never mind democratic, governance remotely possible in any significant portion of this mess.

Oh, and can we manage a government change in Belarus that puts it on trajectory that vaguely resembles Ukraines at acceptable cost? Do we have a choice? There is probably a Phd in foreign relations in the answer to each of those questions, but I don't think we can wait that long.

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Site I go to published this today in summary of latest in the war:

"And really, this offensive is truly possible to all those Territorial Defense Force units stuck in trenches up and down the front for the past six months, getting slammed daily, oftentimes feeling abandoned. Their impossible heroism allowed Ukraines regular army units and 300,000 reserves to prepare in the country’s west, while Western allies equipped and trained them in proper war fighting techniques."

While we're feeling good about progress it's good to remember who's months of suffering and deaths made this possible. 

 

Brave men died every hour, for months, to make this offensive possible. Their courage and the sheer iron nerve of the AFU general staff simply awe me.

Peace to their families.

Glory to Ukraine.

Napalm to the Russian bastards.

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

There are two or three hard first questions. Are we trying to keep Russia together or break it apart? Are we trying to make Russia pay for all of the damage to Ukraine? Or is the risk of Versailles type bitterness too high if we just seize half of their oil and gas revenue for the next twenty years? Extracting real money from them pretty much requires that Moscow remain in control of the whole country? What is the best way to unwind 500 years of bad government and worse decisions while trying to keep a handle on several thousand nukes? Are treaties with the current Russian government even possible given the extent to which they lie about everything, all the time?

Secondary considerations, how much do we care if China benefits at Russian expense? would a relatively free hand in Russia convince China it has better things to do than destroy the world economy by attacking Taiwan? Can we break the the lock the current Moscow elite has on the oil and gas revenue? Is ANYTHING resembling decent, never mind democratic, governance remotely possible in any significant portion of this mess.

Oh, and can we manage a government change in Belarus that puts it on trajectory that vaguely resembles Ukraines at acceptable cost? Do we have a choice? There is probably a Phd in foreign relations in the answer to each of those questions, but I don't think we can wait that long.

 

 

Only a small quibble w this.  Folks (me included sometimes) say "what will we do to make new RU govt".  Kind of a big assumption that we get to decide, or even have a big impact that doesn't blow up in our face.   Reminds me of folks 70 years ago saying "who lost china?" -- meaning who in west allowed Mao to win.  West didn't get to decide.  Probably won't in RU.  But maybe we can have some positive influence.

I am actually hoping for breakup because, as was stated by someone earlier today, we want the empire to end.  A bunch of smaller republics, each w little ability to wreck the world, sounds pretty good to me.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Only a small quibble w this.  Folks (me included sometimes) say "what will we do to make new RU govt".  Kind of a big assumption that we get to decide, or even have a big impact that doesn't blow up in our face.   Reminds me of folks 70 years ago saying "who lost china?" -- meaning who in west allowed Mao to win.  West didn't get to decide.  Probably won't in RU.  But maybe we can have some positive influence.

I am actually hoping for breakup because, as was stated by someone earlier today, we want the empire to end.  A bunch of smaller republics, each w little ability to wreck the world, sounds pretty good to me.

Except what about the nukes? How the  do you deal with those? Everybody knows, or at least assumes, that the Ukraine invasion would not have happened if they had kept the nukes in 1991. That is going to be uppermost on the minds of every single mafia boss looking to move up to head of state of Inner Crapistan. Not to mention ten or 15 bad actors bidding for the bleeping things. Honestly if I was in charge of Ukraine it would have some prominence on my to do list too, absent actual NATO membership.

[Raptor341]

34 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Only a small quibble w this.  Folks (me included sometimes) say "what will we do to make new RU govt".  Kind of a big assumption that we get to decide, or even have a big impact that doesn't blow up in our face.   Reminds me of folks 70 years ago saying "who lost china?" -- meaning who in west allowed Mao to win.  West didn't get to decide.  Probably won't in RU.  But maybe we can have some positive influence.

I am actually hoping for breakup because, as was stated by someone earlier today, we want the empire to end.  A bunch of smaller republics, each w little ability to wreck the world, sounds pretty good to me.

Agree 100%. Only by the empire breaking up will the long term threat to Europe be reduced to acceptable levels, at least in my opinion. It’s simply too hard for most smaller nations to generate the required force to seriously threaten anyone beyond their immediate area. 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Raptor341