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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

If UKR is claiming this then it probably is true, they've been conservative about reporting gains.  And now we here that the pile of ruins formerly known as Lyman is being contested?????  this is madness!

Now there are claims of Ukraine entering Izium flying around in the Russian corners of the internet.

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1 minute ago, Huba said:

Reportedly RU is transferring what is left of VDV from Belgorod and Kherson. The odor of desperation is becoming obnoxious...

 

If they pull the VDV out of Kherson all the other Russian forces on the right/west side are going to evaporate. The Russians are a few shot down helicopters, or one well HIMARsed train from collapsing right out of this war.

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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

My wife is about as Humanist as they come.  It's been a journey for her to be married to a "warmonger" game maker ;)  I had already described (not shown) to her the pontoon strike footage, then I showed her that meme.  She laughed out loud, not just chuckled.  Why?  Because of two things:

1.  the guy uploaded the video in order to be famous.  Why else do it?  So he got his wish, though not necessarily how he intended.

2.  she has long since overcome her usual instincts to be fully Humanist about this.  Why?  She's also a very big fan of people paying a penalty for terrible actions.  It took a while for her to realize that there are no police, no courts, no social shaming that is going to stop the carnage in Ukraine or punish the individuals who engaged in it after the war is over. 

Reluctantly, she has come to terms with the sad reality that the only way forward is for Ukraine to kill as many Russians as possible in the shortest possible time.  Humiliating the Russians who are participating or supportive of this war is a kinder alternative to death.

The guy is actively and willingly going to kill innocent Ukrainians on their own territory.  He uploaded the video willingly to get attention.  He got the attention he deserves.

There are lines not to cross, but this isn't one of them IMHO. 

Steve

Anyone has a link to the original video?

Haven't been following as closely lately because time, although it's good to see the big booms in Russia's rear are now being followed up by big breakthroughs into the strategic rear terrain. As it is the start of the weekend here I'd like to say Nasdrovia to everyone in the thread! 🙂 

It seems that finally we have come to the phase of the house of cards, more specifically the 'kicking it down' episode.

Although I was expecting the Ukraine offensive(s) to face heavy Russian defenses for at least a while, but it seems more like the culmination of a CM PBEM: when either yourself or your opponent discovers (after much of the game has been played) that large parts of the frontline now consist of a token defense only: spare drivers / HQ support teams / stragglers, any worthwhile fighting formation already committed in previous endeavors. 

Izium looking interesting as well. 

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7 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Although I was expecting the Ukraine offensive(s) to face heavy Russian defenses for at least a while, but it seems more like the culmination of a CM PBEM: when either yourself or your opponent discovers (after much of the game has been played) that large parts of the frontline now consist of a token defense only: spare drivers / HQ support teams / stragglers, any worthwhile fighting formation already committed in previous endeavors. 

Izium looking interesting as well. 

The thing that was really keeping RU afloat was massive amounts of artillery so they could just indiscriminately flatten anything within range.  The UA has taken care of that with a very thorough campaign of blowing up ammunition dumps, so that RU can't unload ammo into a pile anywhere without it getting HIMARSed in short order.  That leaves them with having to do just-in-time delivery to the guns from hundreds of km away, and they just don't have the trucks, comms, or coordination to do that.  Given that they're buying artillery ammo from NK, they may not even have the ammo, even if they could deliver it.  They have a huge line to defend with mostly inexperienced, poor morale troops, so their concentrations on defense have to be either low or very localized, with no depth if there's a breakthrough.  The UA has enough forces, and can actually do combined arms, so they're punching through where it's weak and bypassing the concentrations and then isolating them with later echelons so the RU troops need to attack to get out of their holes and UA doesn't have to attack into prepared defenses.

 

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14 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Now there are claims of Ukraine entering Izium flying around in the Russian corners of the internet.

There's hardly any hard evidence to support this claim at this point, but would be perfectly possible if RU forces around Izium just decided to run for their lives. Can't rule that out, the upcoming night is going to be log, thanks gawd it's Friday!

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1 hour ago, billbindc said:

<snip>

Nuking a city would be simpler and nuking Kyiv would be not just a military strike but a statement of will. Also, of course, an incredibly significant war crime. And none of the above would trigger Article 5. 

I'm not so sure about not triggering Article 5. If there are radio active clouds moving across Europe I think there would be many people, my self included, who would say that is a reasonable argument for an Article 5 violation.

Given the fact that a lot of civilians would be killed and hurt in horrific ways I think another possibility would be it could trigger our duty to protect.

 

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

The issue would come down to what the major states in NATO would do. Would Germany recoil at getting more deeply involved? Would France? I would bet (and have) that they would not. I think it would engender the kind of crusading zeal not seen since 1945. It would be clear to all that this war is no longer a regional conflict but an absolute necessity to stop a larger war to come

Exactly. Even if Germany and France were reluctant to put boots on the ground I don't think NATO would even need to send soldiers on the ground..

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

<snip>

Another important point is that NATO has gained enormous conventional dominance as a result of this war. We don't just know how badly Russian forces have been hurt but also how badly led, trained and supplied they are while having had three months to turn them inside out analytically. NATO can destroy everything for Putin in a week or two and never has to even consider using nuclear weapons to do it.

The respond could be simply no fly zone, destruction of Air defence infrastructure and bombing of the launch sites of the nuclear attack. As a start. All simply using air power and precision missiles.

Honestly though I would hope that in the back channels the Kremlin is hearing a message of what the consequences would be and hearing it from more than just the US because we are all better off if nuclear weapons of any kind are NOT used.

To be clear I'm saying that I think the best way to prevent a nuclear strike is to make is clear to the Kremlin what the response would be. None of that messaging needs to be done in public right now - no need be seen as adding to the backing Putin into a corner he just has to receive the message and believe it will be followed through on.

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For several days there were rumours from good sources that Ukrainain SOF captured something very precious. I still don't know if they mean this Zoopark-1M radar, that pcis just leaked, or we can expect more surprises 😎 :

 

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

I just realized that these stupid orcs knocked down an ent! He'll be mighty angry when he gets up...

Spirit of Prof. Tolkien haunts this thread like Balrog in Moria. It seems Amazon's blasphemy awakened him...

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I'm spamming heavily, but there's a lot going on! 

Here's a video of UA BTR crossing the bridge in Raihorodok, on it's way to Lyman.

There are also initial reports of UA forces controlling Svatohirsk, and approaching Izium from the east. What a day!

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5 minutes ago, IanL said:

To be clear I'm saying that I think the best way to prevent a nuclear strike is to make is clear to the Kremlin what the response would be. None of that messaging needs to be done in public right now - no need be seen as adding to the backing Putin into a corner he just has to receive the message and believe it will be followed through on.

I think that messaging is being delivered in highly belligerent terms as we speak.

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Former deputy of Izium city council Mykyta Karakay - Russians in Izium are comning out to Railway Market with raised white flags, UKR troops entered to the city

 

Зображення

 

RUMINT - Kupyansk mopped-up a hour ago.

RUMINT - Russians try to escape from Lyman, but our SOF intercept their vehicles on the road

 

Edited by Haiduk
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10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

For several days there were rumours from good sources that Ukrainain SOF captured something very precious. I still don't know if they mean this Zoopark-1M radar, that pcis just leaked, or we can expect more surprises 😎 :

 

Spirit of Prof. Tolkien haunts this thread like Balrog in Moria. It seems Amazon's blasphemy awakened him...

Corrupt, lesser wizard thinks he can make rings of power.  Gets all his corrupt cronies together to build the rings.  Ends up w Russian army instead.  

So is what is happening now not military collapse on an entire sector?  Seems like it is at or close to the definition.  UKR w ~2000 square kilometers of territory in a few days?  Territory that cuts main supply hub of entire Izyum front and part of Donbas front?

and now Haiduck adds that the main cities have also possibly fallen!  Collapse.

Edited by danfrodo
addition
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Former deputy of Izium city council Mykyta Karakay - Russians in Izium are comning out to Railway Market with raised white flags, UKR troops entered to the city

 

Зображення

 

RUMINT - Kupyansk mopped-up a hour ago.

RUMINT - Russians try to escape from Lyman, but our SOF intercepted their vehicles on the road

Oh damn my liver...🍻

 

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5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Former deputy of Izium city council Mykyta Karakay - Russians in Izium are comning out to Railway Market with raised white flags, UKR troops entered to the city

 

Зображення

 

RUMINT - Kupyansk mopped-up a hour ago.

RUMINT - Russians try to escape from Lyman, but our SOF intercepted their vehicles on the road

 

Izium about to fall too? That’s crazy if actually true. Things must be going very badly for the Russians…

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