How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

I read recently a RU view that "UKR only *fully* attacks when they can do so from two directions at once". 

Kherson and Kharkiv are linked operationally, this much is clear. The nature of that connecting tissue is what we're trying to tease out. Compare/Contrast is a basic analytical tool we can use to go a bit deeper.

In some respects they are similar, in that they are self-contained operations, pushing towards a local water barrier to both trap front line units and cut critical GLOCs. They are taking advantage of extended shaping operations, with an interesting feature of Kharkiv/Izium that it is exploiting the secondary effects of Kherson's shaping ops, namely the destruction of ammo supply and the luring away of RUS operational reserves to the south. 

This last point solidifies the Primary/Secondary heirarchy of what's going on - Kherson can continue without Kharkiv/Izium (albeit with more friction, and I think the UGS would quickly pause or change Kherson in response) but I doubt the reverse is true for Kharkiv/Izium. So Kherson is the key op,. with Kharkiv/Izium as a vital supporting action.

However, both operations can easily amplify each others effects, as both seek the same tactical and operational objectives - destruction of hostile GLOCs & Morale, rather than outright slaughter of men.

The one-two of GLOCs and routs at both ends of the RUS front will tear at its very structure, forcing reactive dispersal of reserves.

There's also the politico/military nature of the fact that Ukraine has a united front, north to south, led by a single commander and staff, with a clear hierarchy and decision/command process. By contrast, Kharkiv/Izium is run by one RUS Military District and Kherson is run by another, but the operational reserves are insufficient to to support both and functionally controlled by a politician, not a general. At least one theatre is bound to fail and the command HQ of neither MD will want to be the loser who goes up to Putler (and out a window). Putin is not a military commander so he wont be able to make an informed battlefield decision, he'll make a political one. So the RUS staff arguments as they try to react will be framed and informed by overt and subtle political considerations for their personal futures. They'll fight between themselves over the steadily depleting reserves and waste time and men as they try to avoid career death and humiliation.

Ukraine by contrast has a military operation (I'm counting Kherson & Kharliv/Izium together) with a single goal - Kherson. Everyone's mind is bent to that single objective (even the Kharkiv command staff, as they are supporting Kherson), everyone knows the basic plan and they don't need to worry about their political futures, just the military task at hand.

---

I've more thoughts and really want to go back and clean up/flesh this out, but the boy is squalling now so I gotta go play trains or some ****.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Kinophile

[paxromana]

10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I've more thoughts and really want to go back and clean up/flesh this out, but the boy is squalling now so I gotta go play trains or some ****.

Maybe the Russians could hire him to 'play trains ...'  

I hear Yuri needs someone to help ...

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

There's also the politico/military nature of the fact that Ukraine has a united front, north to south, led by a single commander and staff, with a clear hierarchy and decision/command process. By contrast, Kharkiv/Izium is run by one RUS Military District and Kherson is run by another, but the operational reserves are insufficient to to support both and functionally controlled by a politician, not a general. At least one theatre is bound to fail and the command HQ of neither MD will want to be the loser who goes up to Putler (and out a window). Putin is not a military commander so he wont be able to make an informed battlefield decision, he'll make a political one. So the RUS staff arguments as they try to react will be framed and informed by overt and subtle political considerations for their personal futures. They'll fight between themselves over the steadily depleting reserves and waste time and men as they try to avoid career death and humiliation.

my bet is Putler will be unable to choose and will try to save both.  Reason being is either one will be seen as failure.  The distance factor means he has to choose.  From a Russian perspective they are distinctly separate unsupporting AOs.  Both have severe political implications - Kherson for both an impending military disaster and proximity to Crimea.  Kharkhiv axis because Russia has said it is primary area.  I think this will translate to paralyzation in Russian leadership.  

[akd]

Crazy UKR mounted counter-attack near Pisky:

 

[akd]

If you are wondering where DefMon's new twitter banner comes from:

 

[Markus86]

Judging by the amount of pictures of captured, wounded and dead russians appearing on telegram channels, their losses must be high. Since the start of the war I haven't seen this amount in days/hours. 

I just hope Ukrainians don't have to pay an equal price.

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

And looks like we (or rather they) reached a hysterical stage - they are threatening RU command.

Denial , Panic, Blame

They are in the last stage.

Lol, they cannot accept the truth. The truth that Ukrainian, an “inferior group of people” with a “corrupted regime’s” leadership and an “incompetent military” has secured strategic initiative. Hell, the “inferior people” can even achieve a “maskirovka”. That is totally unacceptable!  

That means: A, actually they are the “inferior group of people” (No, no one is going to admit that!), B, Russia is mismanaged by a more corrupted leadership, Russian military is far more incompetent than AFU. And we all know which answer they are going to choose.

[billbindc]

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If the Russian people decide the war is over, well that is a different story.  Not many governments who lose a war where the people decide in the end survive - Franco-Prussian France, WW1 Germany, Vietnam etc.  Then the issue is how that power is redistributed and things don't look good for a peaceful transition in Putin's Russia. 

The track record of post Franco-Prussian War France and post WWI Germany is awful. The former gave us the progenitors of fascism (Boulangisme, the Dreyfus Affair, etc) and the latter gave us the full blown, global domination version. Who thinks the Russia version will bring about gentle democracy?

[Kinophile]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

my bet is Putler will be unable to choose and will try to save both.  Reason being is either one will be seen as failure.  The distance factor means he has to choose.  From a Russian perspective they are distinctly separate unsupporting AOs.  Both have severe political implications - Kherson for both an impending military disaster and proximity to Crimea.  Kharkhiv axis because Russia has said it is primary area.  I think this will translate to paralyzation in Russian leadership.  

Exactly. A military commander will prioritize, a politician prevaricates. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

Crazy UKR mounted counter-attack near Pisky:

Girkin mentioned this tactic. It's straight out of WW2.

"Sources noted the outstanding audacity of enemy attacks - "on armor and wheels" seizing positions, breaking into them at high speed directly on armored and other equipment, as a result of which artillery lost the ability to strike the enemy on the way to our positions."

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567434170460160003

 

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Girkin mentioned this tactic. It's straight out of WW2.

"Sources noted the outstanding audacity of enemy attacks - "on armor and wheels" seizing positions, breaking into them at high speed directly on armored and other equipment, as a result of which artillery lost the ability to strike the enemy on the way to our positions."

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567434170460160003

 

Yup, the old "close with the enemy to reduce its options" strategy.  When it works it can produce great results.  When it doesn't work... well... not so good.  CMers know this pretty well!

It's hard to see from the video what the result ultimately was because the footage ends mid battle.  Even with what we saw the focus shifted to the second (right) BMP too much to track what happened with the first BMP (left), but the last time the camera caught anything in that direction there bulk of the squad was still in action and moving towards the right.  Spread out, yes, but still moving.  Not knowing what the situation was to start with also puts us at a disadvantage.

I dunno, from what we can see I'm not sure this was a success for the Russian side.

Steve

[Grigb]

RU Nat mood

Quote

There are so many doubting the combat capability of our Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. This is noticeable in the posts in the Telegrams, in the conversations. Everyone is looking for a foothold/support in the words of the authors or interlocutors, they send each other information. And I understand my friends or unfamiliar authors...

 

[Beleg85]

If anybody ever wandered how it was to be one those small figures scaterred by artillery fire...here we have 2-part video of Russian soldiers reportedly crossing Dnieper river being shelled. (GRAPHIC)

 

[kraze]

53 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The track record of post Franco-Prussian War France and post WWI Germany is awful. The former gave us the progenitors of fascism (Boulangisme, the Dreyfus Affair, etc) and the latter gave us the full blown, global domination version. Who thinks the Russia version will bring about gentle democracy?

It won't. But it won't be Nazi Germany either (because they already are in a way). Because Russians are not Germans of WWI. They are indeed much closer to Germans of WWII, just a lot less "competent" (thankfully).

Chances are russian empire will finally cease to exist, hopefully splitting into ethnic driven states murdering each other over who gets the most land and resources out of the fall.

Edited September 7, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

There isn't any historical precedent at al for the riot police being absolutely abysmal in actual warfare, is there? 

Rosgvardiya, like and UKR National Guard has units, which name "operative". This is usual light armored infantry with artillery, which can acomplish military tasks both inside the country agianst some insurgensy and together with army in usual wars. Except this Rosgvardiya, of course, has public security units, which really have more police functions, than military, but anyway they also have armored transport and APCs. Also under Rosgvardiya command are now such pure police units like OMON (riot police) and SOBR (SWAT), but they also can be used in some military actions, especially in "surgical" assault of buildings. Also Rosgvardiya has own Spetsnaz units, which almost similar to army, but has a shift to counter-terror and counter-insurgensy operations.

Rosgvardiya concept was almost fully copied from Ukrainian National Guard, so both have almost the same set of units.   

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup!  And for those wondering if Ukraine has the ability to perform it on the offense, well... I think the answer is a definite YES!

Steve

We were also wondering if Ukraine has the ability to use a armored thrust to penetrate enemy frontage with ability to push forward with mopping up units behind it....looks like Kharkiv confirms that Ukraine is still capable of those sort of offensives. 

Obviously, the comparisons are near superficial, but I'm getting a lot of Stalingrad vibes, undermanned frontlines with second rate troops (no offensive Romanians but you were undermanned, underequipped, and overly extended) getting overrun by a mechanized spearhead that managed to assemble without interference from a high command overly focused elsewhere. 

 

[H1nd]

I have been active on my part in the Finnish twitter sphere throughout the war, but decided for once to write down a thread in english as well. Take it with ton of salt but the pictures are hopefully pretty.

Cheers!

-H1nd/Pasi Paroinen

[Grigb]

RU last update. 

Quote

Summary at 22:00 07.09

1. Information has been received on the SOBR that they got out of encirclement, there are lightly wounded, information only on Omega, on others is being clarified.

2. In Balakleya, Kupyansk and Izum, the situation is not very good and very serious.
The enemy could not get close to Kupyansk and Shevchenko.

3. Balakleya is completely under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation [in reality majority of Balaklya were under RU control to begin with as UKR captured most important Northern part and bypassed center to move toward Kupyansk - see the map below], the fighting is on the northern side of the city, the enemy was knocked out from the eastern part [no reports of UKR in the eastern part to begin with. Possibly some recon or blocking parties].

4. The VKS of the Russian Federation strikes at the enemy's equipment and vehicles.

The development of events continues, everyhting depends who will pull up reserves faster, all this is not a joke, the situation is difficult.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, H1nd said:

I have been active on my part in the Finnish twitter sphere throughout the war, but decided for once to write down a thread in english as well. Take it with ton of salt but the pictures are hopefully pretty.

Cheers!

-H1nd/Pasi Paroinen

Thank you for taking the time!  If there's anybody else who knows what it is like to fight the Russians and win, it's you Finns

Steve

[Cederic]

8 hours ago, Grigb said:

The front needs more aviation, artillery support and quick decision-making.

I'm struggling to think when that wouldn't be true for any army on any front in any war since early 1916.

 

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU last update. 

 

 

It is interesting to contract it with UKR claims that at least some RU units are running away from Balaklya.  

[Cederic]

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU last update. 

 

 

 

Am I the only one that looks at that map and wonders who the green wriggly people are?

Four colours showing a mix of areas and lines. I'm lost.

 

[FancyCat]

Did Ukraine take the towns east of Balaklya? 

If so, with both major roads leading from Balaklya taken and UKR spearheads moving forward, for Russian units to voluntarily leave the city, that would be a horrible tactical mistake, their best bet is hunkering down in the city and fighting on until Russia pushes reserves and hopefully pushes Ukraine back. 

In that sense, its not particularly important for Ukraine to take the town especially if the two pincers moving on Shevchenkove from west and south take the town and Ukraine can supply their offensive units via Kharkiv. 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Cederic said:

 

Am I the only one that looks at that map and wonders who the green wriggly people are?

Four colours showing a mix of areas and lines. I'm lost.

 

1. Green is a natural barrier like a river or water a canal (in this case it is river
2. Blue is zone controlled by UKR
3. Red by RU
4. Yellow is contested

 

[Artkin]

18 minutes ago, H1nd said:

I have been active on my part in the Finnish twitter sphere throughout the war, but decided for once to write down a thread in english as well. Take it with ton of salt but the pictures are hopefully pretty.

Cheers!

-H1nd/Pasi Paroinen

Yeah that's an awesome map for sure