How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

The powerful air force they said. It can rival US Air Force they said. 6 months into war with non NATO country: 

Quote

Of all the Ukrainian counter-offensives, as well as the supply of weapons to Ukraine, one disappointing conclusion can be drawn. The enemy moves absolutely calmly, not masking or practically not masking along the main highways and railways. Moreover, it even advances along highways. Neither columns nor pre-offensive concentrations [of UKR] are destroyed.

All this, in my unprofessional opinion, brings us back again, and again, to the question of gaining air supremacy.

 

[Grigb]

And RU Nats started to discuss Tactical Nukes. 

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think this whole Kharkiv/Izyum thing is designed to pin down RA forces while main effort is Kherson based on the shaping operations efforts; however, it could be the other way round as well.

There were some speculations last attacks near Lyman were conducted to relieve Russian pressure near Bakhmut, which is still pretty strong.

 

 

[paxromana]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And RU Nats started to discuss Tactical Nukes. 

Are they that stupid? Do they have no idea at all of what the consequences would be? Almost certainly high level NATO, or at least US, reaction ... no fly zone over Ukraine, destruction of remnants of Black Sea fleet ... declaration of absolute and total sanctions at a minimum. And if they push it to the edge of insanity and beyond, nuclear mushrooms over Moscow, St Petersburg and the end of Russky Mir forever.

I get they're delusional but that requires a level of magical thinking that is downright insane.

Edited September 7, 2022 by paxromana

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Are they that stupid? Do theyt have no idea at all of what the consequences would be? Almost certainly high level NATO, or at least US, reaction ... no fly zone over Ukraine, desruction of remnants of Black Sea fleet ... declaration of absolute and total sanctions at a minimum. Liukely

I get they're delusional but that requires a level of magical thinking that is downright insane.

This is not that new for them, however they may be intensyfying this kind of reasoning now. even in official channels they constantly talk about literal genocide, deukrainization of Ukraine and striking civilian centres indiscriminatelly.

I watched an interview with woman who regularly provides humanitaian aid near Donbas lines, she said locals are terrified that when winter comes, Russians may start target Ukrainian power grids in one coordinated strike across all Eastern Ukraine. We don't know if Russia still possess such capabilities belownukes (personally doubt it) but it may be one of the bets Putin is still counting on in this war.

[Grigb]

RU claims yesterday they lost Chkalovske

So, RU believe that UKR are attacking from there as well.

  

 

[akd]

Here also:

 

[dan/california]

If true the The AFU are close to a true operational breakthrough. The Russians must have pulled EVERYBODY out of this area to try and do things further south. GLORY TO UKRAINE!

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, paxromana said:

I get they're delusional but that requires a level of magical thinking that is downright insane.

They belive heinous westerners are about to infect RU people with the infertility virus.

[dan/california]

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Kupiansk,+Kharkiv+Oblast,+Ukraine/Shevchenkove,+Kharkiv+Oblast,+Ukraine,+63601/@49.6789738,37.1650481,10.64z/data=!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x4120d75c701fc6d7:0xd2d56a3f976d8606!2m2!1d37.6027997!2d49.7055574!1m5!1m1!1s0x4127337011fcc2f1:0xda3dc1e117af3c8e!2m2!1d37.1778581!2d49.6877737!3e0

36 km from Shevchenkove to Kupiansk by main the main road, ~32 km in a straight line. AFU could hit it with 58 caliber 155.

[The_Capt]

36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There were some speculations last attacks near Lyman were conducted to relieve Russian pressure near Bakhmut, which is still pretty strong.

 

 

What a weird place to put in a LOC bridge:

Connected to what?  Unless they are barging supplies down the Dnipro...of course then why put in a freakin bridge? Just pull up alongside in Kherson.  They will need to do at least two more bridging ops to cross the Konka and Chaika rivers and it is about 3km to an MSR, all over wide open country with zero cover. If they are stockpiling in that barge bay, it is just going to get clobbered by indirect fire - at the rate UA is advancing they are going to be in short (Ia) Excalibur range soon (they are already in mid-range, Ia-2, and of course HIMARs).

If UA is smart, and they have demonstrated that quality, let them build the thing and dedicate the resources, get the stockpile up, and then hit it.

Edited September 7, 2022 by The_Capt

[Grigb]

And for something completely different - today RU captured Pisky. Again. Yes, the same Pisky they captured several days ago. It looks like last time they still did not clear Bridge Republic last bridge and Seeds station. But today RU reporter managed to come relatively close to Seeds station - which means UKR are no longer there and near the bridge.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

The great operational thinker and proponent of maneuver warfare once called this:

"rope-a-dope" - Muhammad Ali 

Heh... one of my favorite sayings!  My first job out of college our small company's comptroller used to use this all the time.  That and "piss up a rope", which is exactly what Russia is attempting to do.

Steve

[Grigb]

Do you remember RU wording - Clap aka Cotton aka Bavovna? Let me introduce new one - it is not retreat; it is correction/adjustment of frontline. 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU rumbles that it is Rosguardia that is trying to hold the line and they are bad at handling heavy weapons and calls for artillery.

There isn't any historical precedent at al for the riot police being absolutely abysmal in actual warfare, is there? 

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Do you remember RU wording - Clap aka Cotton aka Bavovna? Let me introduce new one - it is not retreat; it is correction/adjustment of frontline. 

At this rate they are going to be adjusting all the way to the 2/24 lines, and trying desperately to get a ceasefire there.

[DesertFox]

LOL!

 

 

[billbindc]

50 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Are they that stupid? Do they have no idea at all of what the consequences would be? Almost certainly high level NATO, or at least US, reaction ... no fly zone over Ukraine, destruction of remnants of Black Sea fleet ... declaration of absolute and total sanctions at a minimum. And if they push it to the edge of insanity and beyond, nuclear mushrooms over Moscow, St Petersburg and the end of Russky Mir forever.

I get they're delusional but that requires a level of magical thinking that is downright insane.

Every political and military action taken by Putin has been to shore up the regime. No he's not reasonable in his goals but his methods have been rational. Going nuclear would, as you note with the repercussions above, be not at all rational way to achieve them.

Edited September 7, 2022 by billbindc

[danfrodo]

Yesterday I was wondering whether Balaklia was a raid or probe or something more serious.  I assumed probe and then wondered if UKR could shift forces & focus based on what the probe ran into.  Answer seems to be either was planned attack or is attack of opportunity w forces shifted from nearby.

Then I looked and the distance to Volokhiv Yar, ~15km, and said no one goes that far in a day in this war.  Such a joy to be wrong sometimes.     Now it looks like even Kupyansk might be play!!!!  This is getting out of control!  Imagine the RU reserves being moved in panic by 2nd or 3rd rate command structures (since so many commanders dead).  

And now, probably fully realizing the utter futility, RU begins building yet another pontoon bridge which everyone on earth can see.   And UKR will, like usual and mentioned above, let it get mostly done and blast it.  Along w the big line of trucks on the south side queueing up.  And the RU folks all know this yet are forced into this stupidity by the supreme commander.  If I read it in a war novel I'd be "no one is this stupid, this book sucks".

Most of all, THANKS TO ALL OF YOU FOR THE GREAT INFORMATIVE (and funny) POSTS 

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

LOL!

 

 

World record for largest nautical flash mob.  

[Beleg85]

36 minutes ago, Grigb said:

They belive heinous westerners are about to infect RU people with the infertility virus.

Oh, they still put this narrative on frying pan again...I think they generally left it early in war and switched more to undercover CIA biolabs.

Russian propagandists and hawkich politicians possibly have some script circulating. Written by somebody liking  B class Horror movies.

 

If they manage to liberate even Shevchenkove...well Russians are in deep kaka on this front.

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Are they that stupid? Do they have no idea at all of what the consequences would be? Almost certainly high level NATO, or at least US, reaction ... no fly zone over Ukraine, destruction of remnants of Black Sea fleet ... declaration of absolute and total sanctions at a minimum. And if they push it to the edge of insanity and beyond, nuclear mushrooms over Moscow, St Petersburg and the end of Russky Mir forever.

I get they're delusional but that requires a level of magical thinking that is downright insane.

They are that stupid and they are also that delusional.  This is the problem with fanatics... they are mentally unbalanced and that means rejecting things that challenge their view, accepting anything that supports it (conspiracy theories and lies in particular).  The more objective observations and facts contradict their world view, the more desperate they are to search for a way to preserve it. 

Things are going very, very, very badly for the RU Nats and they increasingly know it.  As things have worsened they have put more emphasis on powers that Russia doesn't have because the ones they do have are clearly not working.  This includes everything from the superior fighting qualities of the Russian soldier to relations with China.  Nukes are one of those things.  Theoretically it is a tool available for Russia to use, but it has no realistic chance of achieving what they desperately want to believe it can do.

The most interesting part of the fanatical mindset is that they seem incapable of comprehending that their proposed solutions to a problem clearly indicate that their core belief system is false.  In the case of RU Nats, they say they believe that Russia is superior to everybody else economically, politically, militarily, and culturally/racially.  Yet they see no contradiction between this and their calls to use nuclear weapons against a supposedly inferior group of people backed up by yet more inferior people.  Logically, advocating for the use of nukes indicates an understanding that all other options have failed.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Oh, they still put this narrative on frying pan again...I think they generally left it early in war and switched more to undercover CIA biolabs.

Russian propagandists and hawkich politicians possibly have some script circulating. Written by somebody liking  B class Horror movies.

Maybe Steven Seagal wrote this script. If you look at his filmography he is no stranger to B movies and he sure does love Putin.

[Billy Ringo]

1 hour ago, paxromana said:

Are they that stupid? Do they have no idea at all of what the consequences would be? Almost certainly high level NATO, or at least US, reaction ... no fly zone over Ukraine, destruction of remnants of Black Sea fleet ... declaration of absolute and total sanctions at a minimum. And if they push it to the edge of insanity and beyond, nuclear mushrooms over Moscow, St Petersburg and the end of Russky Mir forever.

I get they're delusional but that requires a level of magical thinking that is downright insane.

 

If you put a group of like-minded individuals in a room with zero or minimal outside input, virtually any idea or potential action no matter how insane becomes "reasonable" to that group of individuals.  Their echo chamber supporting one another can make anything sound like a great plan, regardless of how flawed it may be to everyone else.

In this case, they may have access to outside information but the failure to take it into consideration results in the same outcome.

 

[Grigb]

And looks like we (or rather they) reached a hysterical stage - they are threatening RU command.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Igor Kaipov, Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications, 252nd Guards MRR, 3rd MRD:

 

Maj. Chermen Bagaev, unit unknown:

Lt. Col. Georgiy Khudik, unknown unit: