How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[H1nd]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thank you for taking the time!  If there's anybody else who knows what it is like to fight the Russians and win, it's you Finns

Steve

Its interesting time over here for certain. So much has changed in the past 7 months in terms of diplomacy, internal politics and the general atmosphere in regards to military matters and national defence. I have to admit that it feels strange to be going to refresher training knowing, that there are almost certainly going to be future NATO partner forces training with us (if we get past the end boss Turkey). 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Did Ukraine take the towns east of Balaklya? 

If so, with both major roads leading from Balaklya taken and UKR spearheads moving forward, for Russian units to voluntarily leave the city, that would be a horrible tactical mistake, their best bet is hunkering down in the city and fighting on until Russia pushes reserves and hopefully pushes Ukraine back. 

In that sense, its not particularly important for Ukraine to take the town especially if the two pincers moving on Shevchenkove from west and south take the town and Ukraine can supply their offensive units via Kharkiv. 

There are reports that UKR at least were attacking several settlements right on that road. But so far no confirmation.

[Simcoe]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Crazy UKR mounted counter-attack near Pisky:

 

Thanks for sharing. Absolutely incredible footage.

Really goes to show that despite its faults, Combat Mission is the closest we're going to get to seeing what actual battles look like. Reminds me of the first mission of the Russian Black Sea campaign. Text book mechanized infantry assault.

[Grigb]

RU reporting

Quote

It can be stated that in the Balakleya operation, the AFU has completely outplayed the command (I will not say which district) at the moment  in the operational art. Let those who responsible for investigation investigate it. I'm not going to give my estimated marks [to enemy], especially to pour water on the mill [help] of the enemy. Izum is preparing for battle. We wish good luck to our soldiers, veterans, ordinary soldiers and officers. The enemy is preparing a strike not only from the north, but also from the south. Reserves are accumulating in the area of the settlement  Dolyna [south east from Izum], the enemy is deploying tanks in attacking formations. Our aviation is actively working, so the night will be hot.

 

[Haiduk]

Reporteldly Russian forces in Balakliya and outskirts:

Army:

- 11th Army Corps (Coastal troops from Kaliningrad): looks like elements of 18th motor-rifle division + maybe some corps arty 

- 9th BARS battalion (one of at least 20 Russian volunteer battalions, formed from reservists by Russian MoD)

- LPR mobiks (on the known video where commander with hoarse voice prepare own units to the battle - that was mixed unit of BARS and LPR mobiks)

Rosgvardiya:

- 126th operative purpose regiment (Ingushetia Republic) of 49th operative purpose brigade of Rosgvardiya

- SOBR "Omega" (Samara oblast)

- SOBR (Bashkiriya Republic)

- OMON "Ural" (I can't find anything about this unit, maybe mistake)

Both SOBR detachments have total 60 men - their already named "60 Spartanians", hoping for their martyr last stand, but looks like UKR didn't want to assault Balakliya and just semy-encircled it, develping own progress to Shevchenkove and Kupiansk.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

What happened to air support? 

Like, sure, Russian fire support maybe got overrun or the front line units were not prepared for a offensive by Ukraine, but what about air support, is there literally no ability for the VVS to stop these spearheads? There is a report indicating they are skipping Shevchenkove and heading straight for Kupyansk, Izyum is basically gone in that scenario, if they reach the Oskii, both Kharkiv, and Slovyansk are basically free from being flanked, Ukraine will have very strong defensive lines in the area, and can then redirect freed up units for Donetsk or whatever else they feel like attacking. 

Amazing, anyone recall when Russia was first pushing into Izyum and people were hoping that Ukraine could actually cut off the Russian advance via Kupyansk but sadly, Ukraine was firmly on the defensive? It is astounding to see a few months later, Ukraine being really close to cutting Izyum and doing so via such a high speed maneuver.

This is literally new, in terms of territorial control we have seen since months ago. Amazing.  

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Reporteldly Russian forces in Balakliya and outskirts:

Army:

- 11th Army Corps (Coastal troops from Kaliningrad): looks like elements of 18th motor-rifle division + maybe some corps arty 

- 9th BARS battalion (one of at least 20 Russian volunteer battalions, formed from reservists by Russian MoD)

- LPR mobiks (on the known video where commander with hoarse voice prepare own units to the battle - that was mixed unit of BARS and LPR mobiks)

Rosgvardiya:

- 126th operative purpose regiment (Ingushetia Republic) of 49th operative purpose brigade of Rosgvardiya

- SOBR "Omega" (Samara oblast)

- SOBR (Bashkiriya Republic)

- OMON "Ural" (I can't find anything about this unit, mayby mistake)

Both SOBR detachments have total 60 men - their already named "60 Spartainins", but looks like UKR didn't want to assault Balakliya and just semy-encircled it. 

Not many first line troops on that list, not sure how many second line troops are on that list.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I have heard a lot on how "Putin will never go", "regime change in Russia is impossible".  Well first of all it is definitely 'possible', history backs that one up, the question is probability. 

One response to the people that say that the Putin regime won't fall is this... "so, you think Putin is immortal?  That's interesting information!".

The point being that there was ALWAYS going to be a messy end to Putin's regime, whether it was last year, this year, or next year... unlike the Soviet regimes of the past, Putin has made this all about him.  Those sorts of regimes never end well.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

To the 'Putin never-fall" circle, I can only look at history and point to governments and regimes failing for a lot less than the gaping maw of political and strategic failure forming up on this one.   Well one second to midnight at a time.

Yup, and of course it's always fun to remind those sorts of people that they likely didn't predict the Soviet Union would cease to exist quite suddenly.  It didn't just change it's political underpinnings, it ceased to exist. After it collapsed people said "OK, now I see why that is the way it happened".  Few did that beforehand.  Most saw it evolving as China has managed to do thus far.  However, Xi has made things more about him than his predecessors.  This has historians familiar with autocratic regimes raising some uncomfortable possibilities for our near future.

Steve

[dan/california]

Is this the worst day the Russians have had?

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Amazing, anyone recall when Russia was first pushing into Izyum and people were hoping that Ukraine could actually cut off the Russian advance via Kupyansk but sadly, Ukraine was firmly on the defensive? It is astounding to see a few months later, Ukraine being really close to cutting Izyum and doing so via such a high speed maneuver.

Yeah, I was just thinking about this.  There was some attempts by Ukraine to advance eastward, but they stalled pretty quickly.  They didn't have the concentrated strength at the time plus Russia had a lot more forces there too.

Steve

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Not many first line troops on that list, not sure how many second line troops are on that list.

 

Their main forces on Izium direction - on southern bank of Siverskyi Donets - elements of 4th guard tank division, 3rd motor-rifle division something else... And in Shevchenkove area - at least two BTGs of 144th motor-rifle division. But I can't recall now exactly

Edited September 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Their main forces on Izium direction - elements of 4th guard tank division, 3rd motor-rifle division something else... And in Shevchenkove area - at least two BTGs of 144th motor-rifle division. But I can't recall now exactly

Hopefully the AFU can fight them while sitting on their fuel and ammo supplies.

[Grigb]

RU troops from Balaklya report they are surrounded (message around 21:27 - 2 hours ago). Planning to break out. Interestingly They claim UKR broke through RU frontline at Buhaivka. But the only settlement with this name is somewhat far from frontline. @Haiduk maybe you know where is it?

 

[Grigb]

Partisans strike at Melitopol. Claims of two Bavovna at two different targets. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Rosgvardiya, like and UKR National Guard has units, which name "operative". This is usual light armored infantry with artillery, which can acomplish military tasks both inside the country agianst some insurgensy and together with army in usual wars. Except this Rosgvardiya, of course, has public security units, which really have more police functions, than military, but anyway they also have armored transport and APCs. Also under Rosgvardiya command are now such pure police units like OMON (riot police) and SOBR (SWAT), but they also can be used in some military actions, especially in "surgical" assault of buildings. Also Rosgvardiya has own Spetsnaz units, which almost similar to army, but has a shift to counter-terror and counter-insurgensy operations.

Rosgvardiya concept was almost fully copied from Ukrainian National Guard, so both have almost the same set of units.   

 

I have viewed Rosgvardiya as being similar to the Wehrmacht's Sicherungs-Divisionen (Security Divisions).  On the surface the appear to be light infantry in terms of organization and equipment.  However, they were not trained or fully equipped for conventional warfare against an organized military opponent. 

Although Rosgvardiya is a heavier force than Sicherungs units, it seems to me they suffer from the same limitations for conventional war.  Which is perfectly understandable as they aren't designed for that purpose.  Conventional forces have a difficult time with fighting insurgencies because they're not designed for it.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Kherson oblast. BMP in tall grass %)

 

[Beleg85]

Ab article in WP about wounded UA soldiers in southern offensive:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/

Hard to tell larger picture form it, but several things stands out (note it can be localized):

-Russian artillery was not suppressed and outgunned Ukrainian one.

-At least one soldier claims Russian tanks drove out of cement covers (sheds or bunkers), shoot and get back.

-Russians EW did hijacked drones.

-Casulaties are high; perhaps even very high. However, strange proportion on KIA/WIA, with significant amount of latters.

-Seems many of them came from inexperienced units; they still wander that using cellphones can bring Russian shells (unless journalist overinterpreted something)

-Despite being wounded and grudinng, morale seems very high. These guys seems determined to take back their land.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I was just thinking about this.  There was some attempts by Ukraine to advance eastward, but they stalled pretty quickly.  They didn't have the concentrated strength at the time plus Russia had a lot more forces there too.

Steve

It is just amazing, I'm not sure if anyone saw that Ukraine was capable of launching two major offensives at once two or even a month ago. (I'm not sure that I want to say this is a localized or recon in force, this clearly has planning and operational depth in it, the distances here are greater than any previously by Ukraine, yes Russia may not have enough defense in depth but Ukraine would need to assemble the supply and reserve units to do things like encircle towns for bypassing) One, sure, but two? Either Russia has basically stripped Izyum of everything, or Ukraine has piled a lot in this area (or both!). What about intel wise? How did Russia ignore Izyum building up? Why did they remove so much from Kharkiv for the Donbas and Kherson? 

ISR wise, we have been saying that Ukraine and Russia see everything the other does, yet that seemingly has not translated into Russia being able to prevent being hoodwinked by Ukraine time and time again, from Kherson, to Kharkiv, one gets the feeling that Ukraine has been psyoping the Russians really ****ing good and ISR is only useful if you can process it, take conclusions from it, and if Ukraine psyops has been causing them to underestimate Ukraine, it must be really good cause Russia is looking at utter collapse in Kharkiv.

You know, I feel like their psyops is affecting me personally. Did anyone on this thread, if asked a month ago, "Could Ukraine advance 20km against Russia?" For example, the distance between Vysokopillya and Novovoznesens'ke is 10km, and took several days of fighting for Ukraine to advance, meanwhile, in the span of less than a day? we have UKR forces making a 17km move from Volokhiv Yar to outskirts of Shevchenkove.

Edited September 7, 2022 by FancyCat

[dan/california]

Not all of the opening pushes in Kherson went well. This guys unit was probably one of the ones that hit a competent Russian unit and stalled. Happily they weren't all that good.

 

Edit:n Meant to quoter Beleg85

Edited September 7, 2022 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

One response to the people that say that the Putin regime won't fall is this... "so, you think Putin is immortal?  That's interesting information!".

The point being that there was ALWAYS going to be a messy end to Putin's regime, whether it was last year, this year, or next year... unlike the Soviet regimes of the past, Putin has made this all about him.  Those sorts of regimes never end well.

For sure it will fall this or other way one day, as succession is not established and too much holds on leader's charisma. This always calls for infighting after death/removal/abdication. New regime may be similar, much worse or more democratic. The question which we have no answer to for now. Just as we don't know if Putler will be removed by a coup, revolt or simply being too old.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU troops from Balaklya report they are surrounded (message around 21:27 - 2 hours ago). Planning to break out. Interestingly They claim UKR broke through RU frontline at Buhaivka. But the only settlement with this name is somewhat far from frontline. @Haiduk maybe you know where is it?

 

Really too far from developments, maybe mistake. Though, I read posts of our soldiers - they hint that success so great, that we even can't imagine how it great, so they advice to wait two more days, when they can to tell about new gains.

Translation: my friend from AFU, now he is near Kharkiv, called me today. He told if all fu...g amazed from Balakliya, that AFU already has a news, from which all will fu..g amaze even more. He promised this is new sensation. Damn... I can't sleep all theese two days.

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, they were not trained or fully equipped for conventional warfare against an organized military opponent. 

Former Internal troops and now Rosgvardiya had enough combat experience on Caucasus - Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan. And their SOBR and special forces, as well as elite counter-terror units like "Vityaz' " have many real professionals. Of curse, Chechya and even Syria experience is not the same that in Ukraine, but Rosgvardiya units, especially from North-Caucasian Directorate are enough trained for warfare.

On other hand many of Ukrainain National guard units also hadn't combat experience. If operative and special units participated in ATO than public order security and units of important objects security (like nuclear plants) - mostly no. 

[Grigb]

RU review of UKR attack on Balaklya

Quote

News from the front.

What happened under the Balaclava?

The actions of the AАU were obvious and predictable, but everything came out suddenly for some reason

In fact, by 14:00 on September 6, when the AFU had already gone on the offensive, for unknown reasons, as we hope officials will tell, the garrison of Balakleya was abandoned by the units of the Ministry of Defense and the militia. Two companies of the VNG and SOBR, the OMON TU of the Rosguardia were left almost alone in the city, in the direction of which about 15 (!) tanks were breaking through

AFU rapidly occupied 8 settlements near Balakleya in half a day, including Bayrak, Chervona Husarovka, Hrakovo, Verbivka, Savintsy, Nova Husarovka

Today, the AFU occupied Yakovenkovo, a Brihadirovka

The AFU occupied Sosnovka and Dementievka [the only settlements I could find with these names so far are north of Kharkiv], where there were units of the Northern Fleet

The AFU concentrated a powerful tank fist in the direction of Balakleya, at the peak of the offensive, 15-17 vehicles were moving forward

The [RU] group's aviation could not help the Rosguard garrison in time, since the direction is saturated with Ukrainian air defense (no one set the task of identifying and destroying it to the recon and special forces of the GRU, because recon due to the lack of infantry was used to storm the strongholds and cities)

Just like two weeks ago, during the evacuation of civilians from the Ud by the Rosgvardiya OMON, there was almost zero interaction between the artillery of the Ministry of Defense and the police units of the Rosgvardiya, which operated independently from each other for the 7th month of the war.

[After] the request for the suppression of the enemy, [there were] unnecessary clarifications and hints were made to use VNG own (!) artillery units   (well, 120 mm mortars)

Later, at 14:00, the evacuation of the garrison became impossible, since the road was under enemy fire control

Now Balakleya is still holding, aviation is working at the limit of its capabilities, pilots are going into hell to bombard enemy columns.

The enemy uses the tactics of a rapid strike: an advanced group with SF fighters flies as armored column at speed into the center of the settlement, dismounts, suppresses everything around, then the main armored group approaches the locality.

Map for reference

[dan/california]

 

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Really too far from developments, maybe mistake. Though, I read posts of our soldiers - they hint that success so great, that we even can't imagine how it great, so they advice to wait two more days, when they can to tell about new gains.

Translation: my friend from AFU, now he is near Kharkiv, called me today. He told if all fu...g amazed from Balakliya, that AFU already has a news, from which all will fu..g amaze even more. He promised this is new sensation. Damn... I can't sleep all theese two days.

Kupyiansk?!

[akd]

4 hours ago, akd said:

Maj. Chermen Bagaev, unit unknown

@sburke @Kinophile

Bagaev was with the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade.