How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Combatintman]

Meanwhile from our Kabul correspondent ...

Afghanistan: Russian embassy staff killed in Kabul bombing - BBC News

Looks like Islamic State has declared for Ukraine.

[Beleg85]

Odyssey of UK-Russia relations continues on ...since Ben Wallace will be in new Cabinet and continue bullying poor Russians, and figures like Tom Tugendhat too, we can now expect new creative ways of showing Liz Truss as ultimate villain as well.

 

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Meanwhile from our Kabul correspondent ...

Afghanistan: Russian embassy staff killed in Kabul bombing - BBC News

Looks like Islamic State has declared for Ukraine.

Heh, no one holds a grudge like an Afghan.

[sburke]

28 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Meanwhile from our Kabul correspondent ...

Afghanistan: Russian embassy staff killed in Kabul bombing - BBC News

Looks like Islamic State has declared for Ukraine.

wonder if that has anything to do with that ruling on Islamic religious texts.

[sburke]

28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Odyssey of UK-Russia relations continues on ...since Ben Wallace will be in new Cabinet and continue bullying poor Russians, and figures like Tom Tugendhat too, we can now expect new creative ways of showing Liz Truss as ultimate villain as well.

 

 

[Grigb]

New RU Nat mood - VK post of Victor Alksnis 

Quote

Every day I carefully study the reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. I noticed that in recent weeks, information about the offensive actions of our [military] group [for conquering UKR] has sharply decreased. Not a WORD has been said about it at all today. It was mainly about rocket and artillery strikes on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

This suggests that it looks like our group has gone on the defensive on the entire thousand-kilometer front. And this may indicate the exhaustion of the offensive potential of our troops and the gradual transition of the strategic initiative to the AFU. Apparently, the significant numerical superiority of the AFU over our group and the ever-increasing flow of military equipment and weapons coming from the United States and its allies began to play a dominant role. It seems that the conclusions of Western military experts are justified that, unlike the first days of SMO, when our group had an overwhelming superiority over the AFU, primarily in the quantity and quality of military equipment and weapons, the forces of the parties to the conflict are now being aligned and, in fact, parity is being established. And with the best prospects for the AFU. According to Western experts, our group has run out of steam and is unable to carry out a strategic offensive operation. They claim that in recent weeks the average rate of advance of our troops, for example in the area of Bakhmut, was only about a kilometer per week and the SMO moved into the stage of a positional war of the 1916 model near Verdun.

This situation inspires serious concern for the fate of its as a whole. At the same time, judging by the statements of our leadership and information from federal TV channels, the special operation is going according to plan and all its goals will be achieved. As a result, our population continues to have mainly hat-making moods [mood that it will be easy to defeat enemies] and it expects victory literally in the coming months. There is no awareness in Russian society of the seriousness of the situation and the need to prepare for serious tests [of our resolve] in the near future. It is not internally ready for a serious war. And it can cost us a lot.

 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Yeah I know, if anything it will be the US leading the way on that. Still, I think that a kind of a tit for tat really is in order, it is the only language Russia understands. Not answering in kind means losing face here.

The visa ban would be an extraordinarily obvious place to start. Sorry no gas to waste on Russian tourists. And it would also at least mildly complicate Russian efforts to undermine everything and everyone in sight. Just the way they squeak about makes it clear it needs doing. My two cents would be for a complete border shut down and cut Kaliningrad off again.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If confirmed, these are some very good indicators.  I would only add here that this is an attrition-to-manoeuvre based strategy at play, or at least I suspect so.  That means that while taking ground is an indicator it is secondary to the primary, which is taking RA off the board at a rate their already stressed system cannot sustain.  If/once the RA buckles from the pressure of that attrition, then we may see more manoeuvre warfare that we recognize better.  This is corrosive warfare.

The failure of Russian artillery seems to be why the Russians got backed up ten kilometers plus in the very northern end of the settlement, or at least that is what the internet thinks. The reason they weren't responding could also be lack of ammo, or shrapnel poisoning. But no artillery clearly means the Russian defense fails, even when manned by the best troops they have left.

The Russian line around the Inhulets crossing have, just barely, avoided complete failure because the artillery in that sector is still shooting. When it stops the Russian defense will just fail.

 

54 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup. Broader population sentiments are not following rational data but emotions, though; they don't know we are stronger. This will be Russian schwehrpunkt in this game now, not even political elites themselves. Expect massive protests, in accordance with KGB playbooks.

This reinforce previous point- targets now are not business interests (with assorted rules, like reliability) but purely public notions of what Russian can do. I'd expect him now to turn the valve on and off in following months to swing public mood even more. It is analogous to Skripal murder- point is not gaining something, but sowing chaos and doubts alone. Very characteristic for Putin and his background.

We lost "rubbles for euro" rund, so it was ofc signal for him to use even more stick and carrot. What is troubling is that he may have much better recognition what is happening among Western business and partly political circles in the West than he had about military situation at Ukraine. Really awaiting what will be our short-term collective response now.

The Russian are finally running the full undermine/destabilize campaign they should have started on Feb 25th. I don't think the Russian army in Ukraine has enough time left for it to work. We need to worry les about escalation management, and a great deal more about giving the Ukrainians enough to just WIN this thing. The gas cut ff should at least end any remaining opposition to building more LNG terminals. It ought to also end any opposition to nuclear power, but we probably are not that smart.

[sburke]

Russian Soldiers Riot, Refuse To Fight Over Lack of Supplies—Kyiv (msn.com)

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian Soldiers Riot, Refuse To Fight Over Lack of Supplies—Kyiv (msn.com)

I suspect they would have been better off surrendering to the Ukrainians. But perhaps the next unit to hit the breaking point will draw the correct lessons.

[LongLeftFlank]

19 hours ago, DesertFox said:

On level with a crop harvester...

 

 

 

 

[Homo_Ferricus]

Interesting that Russia is counting on General Winter to save the day, even in an offensive expeditionary campaign like this one.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Interesting that Russia is counting on General Winter to save the day, even in an offensive expeditionary campaign like this one.

when you have only one card to play you might as well bet the house on it.

[Bufo]

 

[sburke]

Putin Forces 'Confused' by Ukraine Strikes, Headed for Surrender: General (msn.com)

Quote

 

A former U.S. general has forecast the surrender of Russian forces in Kherson, a strategic city in Ukraine.

The Kherson region has been almost entirely controlled by Russian troops since March, when it became the first major city to fall during Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive to take back the critical port city.

Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Mark Hertling commented Monday on a Ukrainian soldier's video from the frontlines showing destroyed Russian positions in Kherson.

According to Hertling's analysis on Twitter, the footage indicated "extremely poor soldier discipline" and "horrible fieldcraft/training" in the Russian army. It appeared that lower-level leadership was in crisis while senior leaders were not circulating information, said Hertling. Meanwhile, morale was plunging and the potential for disease was rising, he said.

The ex-general predicted Russia's "future surrender" in Kherson.

Hertling shared more in-depth tactical observations in another Twitter thread. He noted that Ukrainian forces had begun "shaping operations"—or countering the enemy's ability to affect their maneuvers—using a combination of long- and short-range artillery strikes, Special Operations Forces, small unit teams and resistance warfare.

Ukraine had set up its counteroffensive to strike when and where they chose while Russia fought on the defensive to secure its ground, said Hertling. These actions have lowered Russian morale by killing a great deal of Russian soldiers and destroying equipment.

 

 

[Artkin]

13 minutes ago, Bufo said:

 

Now THAT is some hybrid warfare!!!

[Cederic]

17 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh military field pipelines exist and I am sure the Russians even have them (assuming someone maintained them).  In NATO we have them, the French are the experts apparently.  Problems with Kherson:

- Still need a lot of trucks and engineers to lay them, hard to miss on modern battlefield.  And crossing the Dnipro - an area they would have had  a lot of eyes on would have been damned hard.

- They are designed to be laid well back in the Corp/Div rear areas, outside of enemy artillery range and well protected from air strikes. Normally a fuel farm is constructed that is linked to civilian infrastructure or they bring fuel in bulk via trains.  One does not run an operational pipeline that close to the frontlines because once it is seen it is hit.

- To lay it across the Dnipro to a fuel point (again very hard to hide), in range of UA guns and missiles, they would have to dig the thing in in order for it to have any survivability.  And we are back to very hard to hide.

-  The fuel farm would have to be out of HIMARs range, and impossible to hide but also target #1 for whoever has been blowing up airfields.

So technically possible but I would be shocked if they could pull it off and not get smacked by UA arty or some such.

As to deep penetration as Plan A, we have seen no evidence of this on the UA side.  They have been pretty tight but sending a formation 20-30kms deep takes a lot of logistics build up and mass, which even the Russian could have seen.  From what I can see a broad front attrition-to-manoeuvre was the most likely plan, after they had already stressed the RA support system.

Real question is not “how well can the RA resupply?” Because unless we missed something big it won’t be enough without working bridges.  The question is “how much did the RA stockpile that did not get got by UA deep strike?”  That is the long pole in the tent as to how long that they can hold out….physically, moral is a different beast.

 

A lot of trucks and engineers, or one tractor?

https://wintonmachinery.co.uk/product/ripper-pipe-layer/ or https://www.trwengineering.co.uk/pipelayer

No, I don't know whether that pipe would survive pumping a few thousand gallons of diesel through it. I don't think it'd need to. 4-5 of those from stores to river and from river to distribution points might well be all that's needed. A couple of weeks overnight work?

 

(I'm ducking entirely the river crossing element - Kinophile provided a useful summary of those challenges)

[danfrodo]

57 minutes ago, sburke said:

Putin Forces 'Confused' by Ukraine Strikes, Headed for Surrender: General (msn.com)

 

Beyond being a corrupt organization, the huge attrition of officers has to be having an effect, all the way down to fieldworks.  If they're losing majors & lt colonels at such a rate, it must be much worse for captains & lieutenants.  No one w any knowledge going around and correcting the company's defenses, latrines, camoflage,  etc. 

Yet another seemingly small item that can cause a snowball to roll faster down the hill, gathering speed & mass, instead of being stopped by friction.

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

I have sometimes wondered what proportion of Ukrainian (and Russian for that matter) aircraft losses have been CFIT (controlled flight into terrain)...

Before the big war we had a crash of Su-25 with young pilot, who conducted a training flight on low altitude and hooked power lines. Also as I recall the same accident was with some helicopter Mi-2 or Mi-8

By the way, since 2015, when UKR aviation didn't participate in ATO, pilots big part of time had beeen training to fly and use weapon on extreme low altitude. During 2014 UKR aviation was used in "classic" way and suffered sensitive losses, so tactic was changed

  

 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

Damn, they are using MRAPs as IVFs with tanks. You work with what you have of course, but that just doesn't feel right  West could do better than that.

Modern MRAPs often have better protection than Soviet BTRs and even old BMPs (if we say about side armor), but lose them in armament, so their using in this way, of course is not "by the lore", but it anyway better than to attack on pick-ups.  

Edited September 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Desertor]

Hybrid warfare!

[Raptor341]

19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Before the big war we had a crash of Su-25 with young pilot, who conducted a training flight on low altitude and hooked power lines. Also as I recall the same accident was with some helicopter Mi-2 or Mi-8

By the way, since 2015, when UKR aviation didn't participate in ATO, pilots big part of time had beeen training to fly and use weapon on extreme low altitude. During 2014 UKR aviation was used in "classic" way and suffered sensitive losses, so tactic was changed

  

 

 

**** yeah - keep em flying! 
 

(Out of reactions for the day!) 

[Raptor341]

4 minutes ago, Raptor341 said:

**** yeah - keep em flying! I am constantly impressed with the “get it done” factor of Ukrainian aircrew and ground crew.
 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Raptor341
Double post by accident

[kevinkin]

41 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

the huge attrition of officers has to be having an effect, all the way down to fieldworks.  If they're losing majors & lt colonels at such a rate, it must be much worse for captains & lieutenants.  No one w any knowledge going around and correcting the company's defenses, latrines, camoflage,  etc.

Concerned more about the same phenomenon happening to the Ukrainians as the war grinds on. Russian can replace poor leadership with more poor leadership. Even if the casualty rate is lower for Ukraine, their crack NCOs and officers are difficult to replace with similar quality troops short term. Let's hope this is balanced out by self-motivated individuals that are far less reliant on superiors compared to the Russians.  

[akd]

Now they are hanging that soft bagged ERA on T-90M turrets, presumably salvaged from T-72B3Ms or T-80BVMs (no such “official” installation has been seen previously).  These tanks seem to have had some rough use based on the slat armor and signs that they might once have sported Nakikda thermal camo.  Oddly they have no unit markings, just rail transport markings I think.  Maybe delivered direct to front from factory or whatever facility holds them for Moscow parades, or just no point if you are going to cover the tank in Nakidka.

EDIT: Clip is from Biriuch, Belgorod Obl., just over the border.

Same YouTube account has a clip of a T-72B3M with a bunch of Kontakt-1 ERA added on top of the factory ERA:

https://youtu.be/i0AKqHiy-rU

Edited September 5, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, Cederic said:

4-5 of those from stores to river and from river to distribution points might well be all that's needed. A couple of weeks overnight work?

So what do you suppose the distance from the “stores to river” looks like?  And does the tractor spin pipe like a spider and it web?

In order to keep “stores” out of arty, let alone HIMARS ranges we are talking many kms of those poor little tractors laying pipe, very slowly, across open ground with trucks with pipe loaded on them.  It isn’t time, it is doing a fairly major infrastructure project in a war zone while under enough ISR to fry a seagull in flight.  

So the RA, the paragon of military engineering, pulled this off unseen and now are also able to hide all the refueler traffic to and from POL points, across a river and sustain refuelling ops for hundreds vehicles burning at combat daily rates.  

Ya, not buying it.