How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[beardiebloke]

Can't really tell much from these blurry pics myself but it seems RU is putting together a very long pontoon bridge.  I guess giving up on Kherson isn't an option so they have to try no matter what.

 

 

[womble]

36 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

Can't really tell much from these blurry pics myself but it seems RU is putting together a very long pontoon bridge.  I guess giving up on Kherson isn't an option so they have to try no matter what.

 

Is the bridge built in a way that they can put most of the pontoon underneath the structure? "Bomb shelter for the bridge"? Makes Saint HIMARS job a little harder, at least, if it's doable.

[akd]

"The Curve" in Nova Kakhovka dam bridge getting HIMARS'd again:

Can see smoke clouds in air from a few attempted SAM interceptions.

Edited August 21, 2022 by akd

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Almaz Agliev (possibly 15th Guards Peacekeeping Motor Rifle Brigade?):

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

I sniffed around and the answer is they are used more as long-range direct fire support and less as shock force. They are used as mobile protected long range direct fire support.

Sniffed around where, if you don’t mind me asking?  I ask because if your assessment is accurate then something has definitely gone wrong with RA armour.  The problem is that I don’t think we know if it is uniquely a Russian problem (eg not enough infantry) or indicative of a much larger shift.

2km can longer be considered “long range” in a war there 250+ kms is in play.  In fact I am not even sure it is medium range when a man-portable ATGM can hit out to 3+ kms at a reported 90% accuracy.  

Using tanks as some sort of mobile armoured long range snipers “from urban” areas as opposed to a fundamental component of combined arms manoeuvre is a major break from conventional land warfare doctrine.  One, that if confirmed, likely has to do with the nearly 2000 Russian tanks lost in this war, which is starting to rival Iraqs losses in the Gulf War.

Further, this is beyond the vulnerabilities of logistical support and more in line with a front end impact.  Keeping sniper tanks gassed and fed ammo will still be a challenge - perhaps less so than offensive manoeuvres- but using tanks as mobile AT guns in what sounds like a purely defensive role is a devolution as well.

As to the cover of buildings, NLOS ATGMs have already done their job if those tanks are huddled behind high rises.  PGM artillery can finish the job from there as we have learned that there is nowhere to hide on this battlefield - at least if you are Russian.

[FancyCat]

A little thread on resistance movements.

 

[Beleg85]

Hmm... @Grigb  you think it is credible? Rogue Russian anarchists sounds too Bond-ish for me and smells FSB provocation. On the other hand there are certainly groups in Russia that actively opose regime and Dugin- as a symbol of pan-Russian nationalism- could be considered a natural target for them. This explanation would answer questions about strange subject of attack we asked before.

Still to carrying out bomb attack this magnitude one needs some contacts, materials and fieldcraft.

Whatever the case, I don't think Ponomaryev should be so cheerful here; it may harm Ukrainian cause. Russia may officially try to accuse Ukraine of sponsoring terrorism.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[Bennie]

Not at all convinced of the existence of a Ru NRA. But I am reminded of the many reports of possible sabotage, such as the fires in Sakhalinskaya GRES-2 and the Defense Ministry's Research Institute in Tver.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As to the cover of buildings, NLOS ATGMs have already done their job if those tanks are huddled behind high rises.  PGM artillery can finish the job from there as we have learned that there is nowhere to hide on this battlefield - at least if you are Russian.

Not true in an urban environment.  Parking garages etc provide plenty of opportunity for covered locations.  Maybe the Russians just haven't figured that out.

[FancyCat]

Thread on Dugin's connections and influence. Very long.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FancyCat]

im not at all knowledgeable, but i find the idea of any group in Russia being capable of harming Dugin to have better targets, so I think along the lines of others, this is a plot by Putin to warn the RU nationalists against any funny ideas. 

The Greens continue to lead the way noise wise for German support of Ukraine. 

 

 

[Beleg85]

44 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

im not at all knowledgeable, but i find the idea of any group in Russia being capable of harming Dugin to have better targets, so I think along the lines of others, this is a plot by Putin to warn the RU nationalists against any funny ideas. 

Actually, Dugin would be good target for potential resistance. Probably weakly protected, relatively known to western public, easily localized at exact date and hour (huge problem for amatours). The problem is sole existence of such group and their ability to do such work.

The issue with Kremlin killing him is directly opposite, to my reckoning- they have all necessary means, but no visible, undisputable cause to target him specifically.

But of course it's Russia, it can be anything. Hell, even attempt by FSB to form token resistance before real one forms, like operation Trust or similar.

I suppose this short, gruesome video was not posted here.

Also, it is worth to check MiltaryLand.net. They are now doing updates about state of various Ukrainian units. Hard to tell what sources they use, but project seems interesting- they start with 24th "Royal" Brigade, heavily battered at Donbas salient.

https://militaryland.net/units/unitrep-24th-mechanized-brigade/

Edited August 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

The issue with Kremlin killing him is directly opposite, to my reckoning- they have all necessary means, but no special cause to target him specifically.

I admit I know near nothing about that man, except he being some kind of right wing guy. However I still wonder about motive and possible benefit of having Dugin killed. I don´t get it. Who would gain from that?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Bennie said:

Not at all convinced of the existence of a Ru NRA. But I am reminded of the many reports of possible sabotage, such as the fires in Sakhalinskaya GRES-2 and the Defense Ministry's Research Institute in Tver.

I'm pretty sure they get their funding from the Moscow Municipal Credit Association.  

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting article from March that has resurfaced because it references both Alexander Dugin and his daughter.  It is about intercepted communications between Russian and far right European politicians.  It specifically focuses on Italy's former Interior Minister, Matteo Salvini.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/exclusive-russia-backs-europes-far-right/

Three things I noted:

1. how focused Russia was on getting rid of sanctions imposed after the 2014 invasion.  Western critics constantly berate these sanctions as being useless, yet there's lots of evidence that Russia worked hard to get them reversed.  Subsequent studies hint that the sanctions, over time, were much more effective than critics gave them credit for.  We also have some reasons to think these were in the mix of reasons Putin attacked this year (e.g. Russia is getting weaker by the year).
2. how ineffectual these efforts were.  Money was thrown at various problems, yet various problems did not go away.
3. yet the money was useful towards getting far right messaging out at election time, therefore it was to some degree effective in getting them elected.

I am so looking forward to seeing how the future of the far right is affected by the loss of Russian funding.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am so looking forward to seeing how the future of the far right is affected by the loss of Russian funding.

It is very lucrative to become a politician. Some make a living by becoming a professional conspiracy theorist. Also known as populism. Democracy is good but not perfect. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

The issue with Kremlin killing him is directly opposite, to my reckoning- they have all necessary means, but no visible, undisputable cause to target him specifically.

The thing is Dugin's influence was mostly out of the public eye.  He has many, many followers and is the spiritual leader of the core nationalist reasons for invading Ukraine in the first place.  While it is true that his direct influence on Putin is vastly overstated, his influence on the people who work for Putin seems to be more the point.

We know that the war is going badly for Russia.  It seems the followers of Dugin are aware of this to some extent.  Some to the point of thinking that Putin has to either declare full scale war against Ukraine or removed so that someone else can.

It is not out of the realm of possibility that Dugin has been counseling and coordinating to an extent that the FSB was not comfortable with.  If that were the case, then Dugin would eventually need to be dissuaded from causing problems.  Threats would likely be the first attempt, but if that didn't work then arrest (if the movement hadn't gained steam) or assassination (if it already had).

We in the West would likely know nothing of this as Dugin would try to keep it low profile because they know the FSB is listening.  Therefore, it's not like we'd know one way or the other what is going on.

As for the possibility of a genuine organized resistance group in Russia... I am also skeptical.  Smells more like FSB, though if it is FSB then things are definitely getting to be very tense within the Kremlin.  Having a fake resistance group is in many ways just as bad as a real one in terms of the impact on what the average Russian thinks of the government's strength.  A fake group is, therefore, very risky.  And perhaps that is the best reason to think the group is real.

Steve

[FancyCat]

If it was a fake FSB resistance group, I'm not sure Dugin, a figure not well known in Russia and certainly not important enough would be a good way of motivating the Russian people towards being pro-war. Some old fashioned apartment bombings would be much more effective no? Dugin as a target for establishing Ukrainian terrorism in worldwide look is just as useless, any look at his rhetoric would disarm that argument.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

If it was a fake FSB resistance group, I'm not sure Dugin, a figure not well known in Russia and certainly not important enough would be a good way of motivating the Russian people towards being pro-war. Some old fashioned apartment bombings would be much more effective no? Dugin as a target for establishing Ukrainian terrorism in worldwide look is just as useless, any look at his rhetoric would disarm that argument.

The only person, as far as I know, that has made statements about this alleged resistance group is a former Russian Duma deputy who (basically) defected to Ukraine.  Video is linked above, this is an article about it:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/21/7364237/

I'd need to see a lot more evidence this group exists before putting aside my skepticism.

The fake group theory is based on the FSB's history of making fake anti-government groups to act as a "honey pot" to lure sympathetic Russians into identifying themselves.  It is very effective because the ones who are likely to join such a group either fall for the scam, and are arrested/monitored, or come to believe all anti-government groups are traps and therefore stay away from joining real resistance groups.  

Setting up fake groups to lure would be opposition into a trap was a common tactic of the KGB and, IIRC, was also used during the Tzarist times.  The basic premise of the book "1984" explores this exact thing.  Russia kept up the tradition because it works.

Steve

[kraze]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Hmm... @Grigb  you think it is credible? Rogue Russian anarchists sounds too Bond-ish for me and smells FSB provocation. On the other hand there are certainly groups in Russia that actively opose regime and Dugin- as a symbol of pan-Russian nationalism- could be considered a natural target for them. This explanation would answer questions about strange subject of attack we asked before.

Still to carrying out bomb attack this magnitude one needs some contacts, materials and fieldcraft.

Whatever the case, I don't think Ponomaryev should be so cheerful here; it may harm Ukrainian cause. Russia may officially try to accuse Ukraine of sponsoring terrorism.

I wouldn't trust FSB agent Ponomaryov even for one moment.

In Russia you become MP only if FSB allows you to and stop being MP alive if FSB allows you to.

Especially since he was in a communist party and then in a Nazi party of Rogozin - making him directly responsible for the current war (and others).

Not to mention that these so called "partisans" delivered a strike on an average propagandist that isn't even calling the shots instead of, you know, some military base or some big guy like Solovyov.

Edited August 22, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

9 hours ago, womble said:

Is the bridge built in a way that they can put most of the pontoon underneath the structure? "Bomb shelter for the bridge"? Makes Saint HIMARS job a little harder, at least, if it's doable.

not really.  The bridge piers look to be solid and at least the width of the bridge if not a little wider.

[Aragorn2002]

20 minutes ago, kraze said:

I wouldn't trust FSB agent Ponomaryov even for one moment.

In Russia you become MP only if FSB allows you to and stop being MP alive if FSB allows you to.

Especially since he was in a communist party and then in a Nazi party of Rogozin - making him directly responsible for the current war (and others).

Not to mention that these so called "partisans" delivered a strike on an average propagandist that isn't even calling the shots instead of, you know, some military base or some big guy like Solovyov.

Well good riddance in any case.

[LongLeftFlank]

 

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

 

Those who sow the wind must reap the whirlwind.

[G.I. Joe]

12 hours ago, MikeyD said:

You can bomb and straff things with A-10s in CMCW, which is set more than 40 years ago (halfway between now and WWII). I recall at the time congress mandated the Pentagon conduct tests to see if the old WWII P51 Mustang was still a viable ground attack platform (it wasn't). Nostalgia over the 'mystique' of certain aircraft often outlive the aircraft themselves.

Ah, the PA-48 Enforcer! I've always had a soft spot for the PA-48, not least because the P-51 is probably my favourite aircraft of all time (or at least tied with the Spitfire for that distinction)...and I also have a fondness for weird prototype aircraft and unbuilt design studies.

In all fairness to the people who promoted the turboprop F-51 concept, it wasn't quite as out to lunch an idea as it may sound on the face of it. The Enforcers would have been new-build airframes and the redesign was quite extensive (by the Eighties re-evaluation, the PA-48 was down to about 10% structural commonality with a stock F-51D). From when Cavalier started work on the Turbo Mustang III in the mid Sixties until the re-evaluation of the PA-48 in 1983-84, I don't think anyone was suggesting the Mustang as a frontline attack aircraft for a high-intensity conflict such as NATO vs. Warsaw Pact, but rather as a light attack / counter-insurgency aircraft. Looking at the aircraft used in, or developed for, that role in roughly that timeframe and the decade or two after (A-37 Dragonfly, Strikemaster, IA 58 Pucará, A-29 Super Tucano, OV-10 Bronco, etc.), the PA-48's performance and capabilities look pretty good and it probably would have been competitive in terms of price and operating economics as well. One key difference is that most of the COIN/light attack types that did go into production were based off of trainer designs that were already in large-scale production and didn't require committing to a "new" airframe. Another practical reason the Enforcer never caught on is that the USAF already had the OV-10 Bronco and A-37 Dragonfly in service and there really wasn't any niche to fill between the two types that could justify a third.

Nonetheless, yes, the Piper Enforcer probably does come in ahead of the F-20 Tigershark and the Boeing Skyfox on the list of top efforts to stretch out an existing aircraft design's service life that were ultimately a bridge too far...

Of course, it isn't just aircraft whose mystique can outlive their effectiveness...I remember the consternation from some when the Iowa-class battleships finally got a well-earned retirement to museum ship status in the 2000's.

Edited August 22, 2022 by G.I. Joe