How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

If you have not read The Comanche Empire by Pekka Hämäläinen, I cannot recommend it enough. 

Thanks, will add to reading list. Btw Comanche developed very eccentric social model, as they were not so much a tribe as giant ecclectic warband. Maybe 30% were of native Comanches, the rest being captives, former slaves, blacks, hispanos, women and children. They sucked everybody and turned into cohesive wandering warrior democracy. After second thought -they quite resembled Zaporozhian Cossacks .

 

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Nice post. Regarding musket times it is interesting as well to look into Dutch 'innovations' fighting the Spanish. But that had little/nothing to do with 'mission command'

Maurice of Nassau and his lineage were essential in forming European Warfare model, but still ahead of his time (yes, he knew about Roman maniples, want to form independent officer corps  and even wrote in one of his letters how crucial it was to "seize the moment")- but barely anybody for next century could simply afford stable, standing army of his design.

 

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

While I don't always agree with my fellow countrymen Aragorn, especially politically (or CMRT releases) I think he has a good point. 

How is Poland going to pay for 400 M1 with their turbine engines let alone 500 Himars? 

Personally I have some doubts about many of these things materializing into tangible stuff in the long term.  Sorry but not sorry if I poop on parties, that's our national trait init?

FWIW i hope PL will have 300+ M1A2SEPV3 sooner rather than later and that they will perform in CMBS 2. I don't even care if some EU money will gets utilised for it.

This is good question many people ask here, too. We cannot afford 6 full divisions simply from mapower perspective. HImars'es amounts are bat**** crazy, fully agree about that. However, tanks and APC's are not that much inflated when compared to demands. Possibly it is cover up for giving some of them to Ukraine in future.

Apart from current domestic rhetoric, I think something different and more geopolitically profund is going here about we only know very little now. It seems Washington finally decided it is futile to convince GER-FR block into proper military spending. Even if they rebuild military somewhat, it is clear political will to use them (in case of an attack) will not be necessary there on time. And danger of Russia spiralling into something resembling North Korea with nukes is frankly real enough to force us to think pessimistically. In case US goes into Pacific, Poland by necessity will become giant miliatry hub that will need to protect its own borders on Belarus axis, help Balts (poor guys are really in difficult situation there) and crucially-  Ukrainians (second Russo-Ukrainian war after this one ends is quite possible, regardless who rules Russia). To do this, they need hardware in place at once, not money equivalent or promises for future.

The task is paramount, frankly gargantuistic. If succeed however, security order in Europe will shift significantly. But initiative seem to be coming from Washington, I am also extremely curious what it really is about. I hope it is much more politically-oriented than usual interests of industrial-military complex in US.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Beleg85

[sross112]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's one theory about what is going on around Kherson:

Ukraine tried to retake Kherson the conventional way... bring up forces, assault, take terrain, make life increasingly difficult for the occupiers, repeat until Russians are gone.  This initially worked pretty well.  Ukraine regained quite a lot of terrain and basically nixed Russia's ideas of expanding on that side of the river.

Russia was obligated to put in significant reinforcements to continue holding what they had.  They tried some counter attacks and they failed, but they did arrest Ukraine's counter attack.

Ukraine tried again when it took Davydiv Brid.  This unnerved the Russians and they flooded more stuff in as well as getting very serious about reinforced static positions.  Ukraine got itself beat up pretty badly in the end.

Things remained like this since then, with Ukraine nibbling at the edges but not able to do much more than that.

The artillery Ukraine had throughout this time was not sufficient to take out the bridge with a surgical strike.  The only systems that could reach would not likely destroy the bridge, yet would expose a lot of systems to air strikes or counter battery fire.

This changed with Western precision systems becoming available.  I don't know what hit the bridge, but it was almost certainly guided.  The equation has now changed.

Clearly Ukraine didn't think this one strike would take out the bridge.  It's too little HE to make that happen.  This means they did the strike for one of two, perhaps both, reasons:

1. to test their capabilities so that they know they can bring the bridge down when the timing is optimal
2. send a message to Russia that they should think about retreating

The devious part of my brain says it's both.  The optimal military situation for Ukraine is to have Russia start to withdraw its forces and catch them out in the open.  Unlike the retreats around Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine knows where every single Russian soldier is headed for a withdrawal.  It only needs to do a Bilohorivka focused artillery operation with focused artillery fire at the right time.  Get panic going big time and hopefully the rest of the Russian forces will surrender instead of fight.  Or, as I said in my previous post, surrender sufficient positions that make the remaining ones untenable.

And the ace up Ukraine's sleeve is it is probably very certain that it can bring down the bridge within minutes of deciding it's the right time to do it.

I'm really liking where this is headed.

Steve

There has been quite a bit of discussion on the dropping of the bridge at Kherson recently here. Even though a big bridge like that would be hard to "drop" it can be made unusable for almost all vehicles easily with 3 or more hits on the decking. Same effect. Militarily there are advantages to both rendering it useless or leaving it open and hitting anything using it. 

Personally I think the UA has been within arty range for long enough that if they wanted to they could and sure this single hit was probably what Steve says above. As for the decision not to hit it hard I think it is humanitarian in nature. All the supplies for the people of Kherson have to come across the bridges and dropping them now creates a humanitarian crisis on their own people. Until the UA is ready for offensive actions that will definitely take the area west of the Dnepr they should probably leave them in place so they don't hand Russia a propaganda win. Once they are sure they will be successful they can choose to drop it or leave it for a highway of death scenario but they have to be sure that they will control Kherson city when the dust settles.

[G.I. Joe]

9 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Folks have recommended that series to me, but I just can't get past the telepathic cat that's mentioned in the description.

How can people watch RU propaganda and not figure out that it's insane?  It makes alex jones look like sane.

I'd say it's worth a try for anyone who's into both sci-fi and military (especially naval) history. I actually liked the Sphinxian treecats quite a bit... I've even read the first two books in the YA spin-off series about first contact between humans and treecats. I guess it depends how hard-SF your tastes are...I love Star Trek and Star Wars, so after suspending disbelief on a galaxy full of aliens who look like humans with rubber foreheads, aliens who look vaguely felinoid enough for humans to call them "cats" doesn't seem like too big a stretch (and the descriptions in the books make them sound a lot more vaguely catlike than the Mattingly cover art), and the telepathic powers are at the tame end of standard Star Trek TOS fare (i.e. more Vulcan mind meld than full-on Gary Mitchell, let alone Force powers...)

Back on topic...it is hard to believe people buy it. I think Steven Hassan's work on countering cult mind control (good summary here on his site) definitely has some relevance. Although his work is primarily related to cults, the basic principles apply to authoritarian regimes, extreme political movements, Multi-Level Marketing schemes, dysfunctional workplaces and families, etc.

Edited July 20, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

I'd say it's worth a try for anyone who's into both sci-fi and military (especially naval) history. I actually liked the Sphinxian treecats quite a bit... I've even read the first two books in the YA spin-off series about first contact between humans and treecats. I guess it depends how hard-SF your tastes are...I love Star Trek and Star Wars, so after suspending disbelief on a galaxy full of aliens who look like humans with rubber foreheads, aliens who look vaguely felinoid enough for humans to call them "cats" doesn't seem like too big a stretch (and the descriptions in the books make them sound a lot more vaguely catlike than the Mattingly cover art), and the telepathic powers are at the tame end of standard Star Trek TOS fare (i.e. more Vulcan mind meld than full-on Gary Mitchell, let alone Force powers...)

Back on topic...it is hard to believe people buy it. I think Steven Hassan's work on countering cult mind control (good summary here on his site) definitely has some relevance. Although his work is primarily related to cults, the basic principles apply to authoritarian regimes, extreme political movements, Multi-Level Marketing schemes, dysfunctional workplaces and families, etc.

ohhhhhhh, it's not actually a cat -- that actually totally changes it for me, thx!  I do love military-naval sci fi.

back on track:  So w your air force background, you think F16 is good way forward for UKR?   A few months of training I think you or someone said earlier?  Maintenence?  Logistics?  Or is F16 story just sci fi? 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

There has been quite a bit of discussion on the dropping of the bridge at Kherson recently here. Even though a big bridge like that would be hard to "drop" it can be made unusable for almost all vehicles easily with 3 or more hits on the decking. Same effect. Militarily there are advantages to both rendering it useless or leaving it open and hitting anything using it. 

As JonS rightly pointed out, effectively taking out a bridge is mostly about being to hit it in the first place.  Very difficult to mass unguided artillery systems in sufficient quantity of time to ensure a hit on the bridge at all, not to mention taking it down.  I also think we can rule out got lucky with 2 shots spot onto the bridge with little apparent misses (the footage isn't unedited, so we don't know how many rounds were fired).  I have zero doubts those were precision hits and they were likely from 30km plus, which probably means HIMARS but could also be some of the 155 systems.

If they were Excalibur rounds, then they probably got them only very recently.  HIMARS is obviously been in the mix, but taking out the ammo dumps was definitely more important.  Either way, the ability and opportunity to hit the bridge is very recent.

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

Personally I think the UA has been within arty range for long enough that if they wanted to they could and sure this single hit was probably what Steve says above. As for the decision not to hit it hard I think it is humanitarian in nature. All the supplies for the people of Kherson have to come across the bridges and dropping them now creates a humanitarian crisis on their own people. Until the UA is ready for offensive actions that will definitely take the area west of the Dnepr they should probably leave them in place so they don't hand Russia a propaganda win. Once they are sure they will be successful they can choose to drop it or leave it for a highway of death scenario but they have to be sure that they will control Kherson city when the dust settles.

It is possible that Ukraine sent Russia a message to leave in order to spare the civilian population extra hardship if the bridge is dropped and Russia stays in position.  I personally don't think that's the case.  I think it's reasonable to presume Russian forces wouldn't hold out very long after the bridge goes down.  They lost a huge amount of their ammo in recent days and are out of reach of any other form of ground support from the other side of the river.  Once Ukraine starts pressing on them they're going to quickly run out of ammo as well as the will to keep fighting.  At the very least their ability to maintain a coherent defense will crumble quickly. 

If Ukraine instead tries to mount a large scale counter offensive without knocking out the bridge, Russia could hold out for weeks, maybe moths if things go badly for Ukraine.  Therefore, the optimal time to drop the bridge is as soon as the attack is ready to go, not at a later phase.  That dramatically increases the chance of success, but also quick success.

Either way, unless Russia is ready to do a full scale rapid withdrawal while the bridge is up, then no matter what the civilians are going to have a couple of days (at least) where supplies are cut off.  Ukrainian civilians have endured more than that in the north and survived.  When I do the "math" I think the least amount of suffering and death is getting the Russians kicked out in the shortest possible time.  That means dropping the bridge as soon as the attack forces are ready.

Steve

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

I'd say it's worth a try for anyone who's into both sci-fi and military (especially naval) history. I actually liked the Sphinxian treecats quite a bit... I've even read the first two books in the YA spin-off series about first contact between humans and treecats. I guess it depends how hard-SF your tastes are...I love Star Trek and Star Wars, so after suspending disbelief on a galaxy full of aliens who look like humans with rubber foreheads, aliens who look vaguely felinoid enough for humans to call them "cats" doesn't seem like too big a stretch (and the descriptions in the books make them sound a lot more vaguely catlike than the Mattingly cover art), and the telepathic powers are at the tame end of standard Star Trek TOS fare (i.e. more Vulcan mind meld than full-on Gary Mitchell, let alone Force powers...)

My favorite sci fi author - CJ Cherryh Just a few of her pile of novels

The Chanur novels - Wikipedia

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Not an officer, I think, but his story contains some interesting information, likely related to the stripping of Northern Fleet units to reconstitute the 200th MRB.  At the time of his death on July 12, Vladimir Moldanov was reportedly one of the remaining 7 men left alive out of his company of 92.  He served on contract in the village of Gadzhiyevo, Murmansk Oblast, which corresponds to the base of the Northern Fleet's 58th Separate Security Company (в/ч 10672). He was sent to Ukraine in May (when the 200th MRB was redeployed):

Seems there are also trying to strip Air Force units for infantry replacements (but they refuse en masse):

 

Dear Mr. Putin,

When emulating the forces of a great war of the past, might I offer a piece of advice?  If you are actively pursuing options that are analogous to Germany March and April of 1945, you might want to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.  Because it seems to me that using Naval and Airforce base security units in place of frontline infantry didn't work out so well for the Whermacht.  Now, I could be wrong, but I'm thinking it won't work out well for you any more than it did Hitler.

Just some friendly advice.

Sincerely,

Steve

P.S.  whatever health problems you might have, I recommend alternatives to modern medicine.  I hear crystals and horse antibiotics work wonders for a wide range of alimentsf.

[chuckdyke]

I found this interesting video this morning. It offers some insight of a Russian BTG.

 

[G.I. Joe]

52 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

ohhhhhhh, it's not actually a cat -- that actually totally changes it for me, thx!  I do love military-naval sci fi.

back on track:  So w your air force background, you think F16 is good way forward for UKR?   A few months of training I think you or someone said earlier?  Maintenence?  Logistics?  Or is F16 story just sci fi? 

 

Will try to reply in more detail later when I have more time, but short answer (with the caveat that my Air Force background, such as it is, is not particularly relevant): yes, I think the F-16 is the best option for Ukraine to get a NATO aircraft operational sometime this year. The A-10 might be as easy, maybe a bit more so, to train on, but it's really only useful for CAS...the F-16 can do that, SEAD, strike and air superiority. I have seen a range of estimates on training time, but if they're doing conversion training for fully trained fighter pilots, a couple months sounds perfectly reasonable. The one drawback of the F-16, and I have seen this mentioned, is that it does not do well on poorly surfaced airfields (relatively delicate undercarriage and very susceptible to FOD with that low-slung chin intake).

[Artkin]

The A-10 is an interesting thought considering we still see aircraft operating very low in altitude. We haven't seen a lot of Russian manpad footage, but there wasn't much in the sky to begin with. 

I wonder what UA thinks of using 30mm DU on their own soil. 

[Battlefront.com]

Today's ISW paid a lot of attention to Girkin's "plan" for winning the war, as well as messaging coming from other Russian nationalists.  It's not very different than what we've already discussed here, but interesting to see what the pros focus on:

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian Operations Assessments July 19.pdf

Steve

[Huba]

5 hours ago, Lethaface said:

While I don't always agree with my fellow countrymen Aragorn, especially politically (or CMRT releases) I think he has a good point. 

How is Poland going to pay for 400 M1 with their turbine engines let alone 500 Himars? 

Personally I have some doubts about many of these things materializing into tangible stuff in the long term.  Sorry but not sorry if I poop on parties, that's our national trait init?

FWIW i hope PL will have 300+ M1A2SEPV3 sooner rather than later and that they will perform in CMBS 2. I don't even care if some EU money will gets utilised for it.

 

The answer is of course "with debt". Like Beleg85 said, 500 MLRS are just a negotiating strategy, though we'll get a considerable number for sure, perhaps even replace all the Grads at some point. But the tanks are done deal, we already got 30 M1s on the ground and training is about to start.

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Apart from current domestic rhetoric, I think something different and more geopolitically profund is going here about we only know very little now. It seems Washington finally decided it is futile to convince GER-FR block into proper military spending. Even if they rebuild military somewhat, it is clear political will to use them (in case of an attack) will not be necessary there on time. And danger of Russia spiralling into something resembling North Korea with nukes is frankly real enough to force us to think pessimistically. In case US goes into Pacific, Poland by necessity will become giant miliatry hub that will need to protect its own borders on Belarus axis, help Balts (poor guys are really in difficult situation there) and crucially-  Ukrainians (second Russo-Ukrainian war after this one ends is quite possible, regardless who rules Russia). To do this, they need hardware in place at once, not money equivalent or promises for future.

The task is paramount, frankly gargantuistic. If succeed however, security order in Europe will shift significantly. But initiative seem to be coming from Washington, I am also extremely curious what it really is about. I hope it is much more politically-oriented than usual interests of industrial-military complex in US.

Danger of all this is that Poland will find it's own Erdogan or Orban (if that hasn't happened already) turn into a full blown dictatorship with dangerous nationalistic ambitions and a threat to all it's neighbours, instead of a protector or ally. The US doesn't care about that and will probably prefer it that way, since it will sideline the EU and increase US influence in Eastern Europe. Poland will seek an 'alliance' with other Visegrad 24 countries, possibly also Ukraine and Belarussia and we're out of the frying pan into the fire. 

Perhaps time for a new North-western military and economical alliance with sensible and democratic countries like Germany-Netherlands-Belgium-Denmark-Norway-Sweden-Finland-Baltic States and the United Kingdom. Most people in those countries are fed up with the rest of Europe anyway. Who knows. Perhaps for the better.

But first bring the Russians to their knees. We'll see what new mess we've landed into after that.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Taranis]

Interesting video about analysis of T-72 by West Germany during the reunification.

[FancyCat]

49 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Danger of all this is that Poland will find it's own Erdogan or Orban (if that hasn't happened already) turn into a full blown dictatorship with dangerous nationalistic ambitions and a threat to all it's neighbours, instead of a protector or ally. The US doesn't care about that and will probably prefer it that way, since it will sideline the EU and increase US influence in Eastern Europe.

Doubtful. That would mean the U.S having to deal with a bunch of scrambling European crises and its pretty clear by now, the U.S prefers a quiet Europe so it can focus on China/Iran, etc. 

[FancyCat]

Maybe language/translation issue but what a silly statement on the face of it. 

 

 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Danger of all this is that Poland will find it's own Erdogan or Orban (if that hasn't happened already) turn into a full blown dictatorship with dangerous nationalistic ambitions and a threat to all it's neighbours, instead of a protector or ally. The US doesn't care about that and will probably prefer it that way, since it will sideline the EU and increase US influence in Eastern Europe. Poland will seek an 'alliance' with other Visegrad 24 countries, possibly also Ukraine and Belarussia and we're out of the frying pan into the fire. 

Perhaps time for a new North-western military and economical alliance with sensible and democratic countries like Germany-Netherlands-Belgium-Denmark-Norway-Sweden-Finland-Baltic States and the United Kingdom. Most people in those countries are fed up with the rest of Europe anyway. Who knows. Perhaps for the better.

But first bring the Russians to their knees. We'll see what new mess we've landed into after that.

Wow, that sounds like something straight out of Kremlin... 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Interesting video about analysis of T-72 by West Germany during the reunification.

Options for UKR MBTs:

1. T-72 stockpiles in NATO countries (or purchased around the world) This is probably enough for this war.
2. Leo1(upgraded). Good enough and comparable to most tanks used in the war by both sides. Most importantly has enough availability in the west.  
3. Abrams. USA would have to equip whole armored formations in this case with pioneering equipment ext. Very slow, expensive and "escalatory" option. Only available modern tank.

[Huba]

Looks like UA is going for the bridge:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Danger of all this is that Poland will find it's own Erdogan or Orban (if that hasn't happened already) turn into a full blown dictatorship with dangerous nationalistic ambitions and a threat to all it's neighbours, instead of a protector or ally. The US doesn't care about that and will probably prefer it that way, since it will sideline the EU and increase US influence in Eastern Europe. Poland will seek an 'alliance' with other Visegrad 24 countries, possibly also Ukraine and Belarussia and we're out of the frying pan into the fire. 

Perhaps time for a new North-western military and economical alliance with sensible and democratic countries like Germany-Netherlands-Belgium-Denmark-Norway-Sweden-Finland-Baltic States and the United Kingdom. Most people in those countries are fed up with the rest of Europe anyway. Who knows. Perhaps for the better.

But first bring the Russians to their knees. We'll see what new mess we've landed into after that.

Remind us please, what century do you live in?

[Grigb]

Girkin comments on Tehran meeting: I can't say that I was wildly delighted with the emerging military alliance with Iran, but in our situation, it's better to have at least some serious allies who are not afraid of "sanctions" than none at all

But he expects Peskov to disavow what Putin said within the week. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

Looks like UA is going for the bridge:

 

Very interesting.

What other likely reasons Ukraine would have to hit the bridges other than Strategic Kherson counter attack being imminent?

Before the said counter attack I would expect surge in deeps strikes, bridges going out, partisan activity exploding. If any of these are done piecemeal or prematurely Russia would adjust and maximum effect lost.

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Remind us please, what century do you live in?

The century of Chaos.

[Calamine Waffles]

@Haiduk did Ukraine decommission all the S-200 and S-125 surface-to-air missiles before the war? Did they also reactivate the Kub systems or are those no longer in Ukraine as well?

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Doubtful. That would mean the U.S having to deal with a bunch of scrambling European crises and its pretty clear by now, the U.S prefers a quiet Europe so it can focus on China/Iran, etc. 

Which it can with a militarily strong Eastern Europe, depending on Washington.