How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[poesel]

Canada has given a limited permit to Siemens to export a repaired gas turbine which is to be used for NS1. This has been requested by the German government (I don’t think that ‘pressure’ wouldn’t be the right word).

Background: Russia will shut down NS1 from next Monday for 10 days. This is a regular planned shut down for service.
Russia has reduced gas throughput by 40% in the past weeks. The pretext was because of the defective turbine.
Now the question is, if Russia will turn NS1 back on after those 10 days. Since they now have their turbine there is no ‘official’ reason not to turn the gas back on.

Obviously Ukraine is not happy about that and neither is Canada nor Germany.

So in about 10 days we know were we are wrt to Russian gas.

[Calamine Waffles]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

HIMARS seem to struck some important RU HQs recently. RU propagandists experience acute HIMARS pain.

 

It wouldn't help anyway. GMLRS uses GPS for minor corrections. The bulk of the guidance is inertial, which the jamming would not affect. That of course assumes that they can jam US military grade GPS systems anyway.

Edited July 10, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[FancyCat]

In a interview with The Times, Defense Minister Reznikov makes clear (unless its a bluff) that Kherson is the site of the Ukrainian counter offensive. Makes sense, Ukraine has been slowly itching its way towards the city itself, the location of it on the far bank of the Dnipro makes it hard for Russia to defend, the limited crossing points make it very easy for Ukraine to defend the region once retaken, as the only capital of a Oblast taken by Russia in the 2022 invasion, it has been given significant significance by Russian occupation authorities for a future Novorossiya, retaking it will shatter the image of Russian victory domestically and worldwide. 

Especially worldwide, Russia argues partly conflict is meaningless, as its superiority makes it impossible for Ukraine to regain, and promotes pro-ceasefire, negotiations, and status quo solidification of the occupied territories. No other frontline nearing city has as much significance as Kherson, holding Lysychansk for 4 months will not equal the damage to Russia the retaking of Kherson will inflict.

Hopefully this will occur sooner than later. 

 

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'd think that VC built the bunkers with the assumption of USAF sometimes hitting the right grid square of jungle, not consistently dropping PGMs 5 meters from where they wanted  That changes everything, the only solution is to pour the concrete till you get sick of it.

Back to tanks. Rumors just broke that Poland will become the third biggest Abrams user in the world, after USA and Egypt. We ordered 250 brand new M1A2Sep3 last year, but to achieve this position we'd need at least 150 more. Now the talk is about at least 300 more (used ones, perhaps ex-USMC) for a total of 550 - 600. It means our 230 PT-91s will go to Ukraine, quite possibly the transfer is already ongoing. What is a fact is that first batch of M1s from US pre-positioned stockpile is already in Poland and our tankers are about to start training "in advance" to be ready to make a switch ASAP when equipment arrives.

What it means is that in the upcoming years, Poland will have around 600 M1s, and 250 Leo2 in our tank fleet. We are also about to buy license for K1A2 and start producing it locally. It will equip new brigades Poland intends to raise, and replace the Leo2 at some point. On top of tha,production of Borsuk (Badger) IFV to replace BMP-1 is starting this year, and as emergency we'll be buying an undisclosed number of AS-21 Redback (perhaps for armored, as opposed to mechanized brigades, this is unclear as of now). 

It is absolutely crazy, next 3 years will see more modernization of Polish army than last 3 decades...

 

That is SUBSTANTIAL. More than enough to take Minsk by yourselves.

[Haiduk]

Last night Russians launched four Iskader missiles on Chasiv Yar town near Bakhmut, Donetsk oblast. Two missiles hit large dormitory and completely ruined several sections. Third missile hit the ground nearby. No info about fourth hit. Emergency works still ongoing. In present time 15 killed found, 5 resqued, and probably 24 can be under ruines. To waste three Iskanders (they could use Tochka-U instead) for dormitory its very strange decision - looks like some of locals traitors mitakingly told Russians that in dormitory UKR troops deployed 

About week ago Russians launched Kh-22 missiles on Serhiivka settlement in Odesa oblast, the missile hit 9-storey residential bulding and recreation complex - 20 dead and more 60 injured.

[akd]

Apparently more than 20 kids from some Putinjugend DNR organization “Young Republic” were “volunteering” to load ammo at the depot near Shakhtarsk, with majority now dead or wounded:

 

Edited July 10, 2022 by akd

[Calamine Waffles]

If this is true, I think they will outnumber the DNR/LNR/Russian forces in the south by about 5 to 1 if they commit all of them there...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-has-one-million-ready-for-fightback-to-recapture-south-3rhkrhstf?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1657473949

[Haiduk]

UKR partisans or SOF eliminated next traitor, the head of Velykyi Burluk settlement administartion Yevgeniy Yunakov. Reportedly he was blown up in own car. Velykyi Burlik is important logistic center and railway node of Russian troops in Kharkiv oblast

 

[DesertFox]

39 minutes ago, Huba said:

Now the talk is about at least 300 more (used ones, perhaps ex-USMC) for a total of 550 - 600. It means our 230 PT-91s will go to Ukraine, quite possibly the transfer is already ongoing

Excellent news! I keep my fingers crossed that this is going to happen.

[sburke]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

I own a parking garage company and here’s the thing with parking garages:

WTF is there anything we don't have someone on this forum with detailed knowledge of?  Having driven my Dodge Ram van in enough parking garages worrying about hitting the sprinkler lines I can attest to the height problem.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Apparently more than 20 kids from some Putinjugend DNR organization “Young Republic” were “volunteering” to load ammo at the dump near Shakhtarsk, with majority now dead or wounded:

 

Using child soldiers is  a war crime all in itself. Terrible, really terrible...

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

That is SUBSTANTIAL. More than enough to take Minsk by yourselves.

Defended by RU army. For BA alone you'd need some pointy sticks and few bottles of vodka to make the march more pleasurable  On a serious note, the only part that's worrisome is of course the cost. It is not clear if those additional 300 M1s will be given by US for free, or we'll have to pay for them (perhaps by some "circular exchange" mechanism in place). But even if Uncle Sam gives them away for free, the cost of setting up the whole infrastructure, modernization etc is going to be huge. And it's only the tip of the iceberg regarding the rearmament program. We'll be introducing a whole new integrated AD setup for 25B$ in next decade, new frigates and submarines, doubling the size of land forces, buying 500 frigging HIMARS ( i hope that's just negotiating strategy, it's just a crazy number), F-35,  150K AT grenade launchers, the list is really endless. I only hope nobody get's an idea to drive all of this on Moscow at some point. Or Berlin...

28 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

In a interview with The Times, Defense Minister Reznikov makes clear (unless its a bluff) that Kherson is the site of the Ukrainian counter offensive. Makes sense, Ukraine has been slowly itching its way towards the city itself, the location of it on the far bank of the Dnipro makes it hard for Russia to defend, the limited crossing points make it very easy for Ukraine to defend the region once retaken, as the only capital of a Oblast taken by Russia in the 2022 invasion, it has been given significant significance by Russian occupation authorities for a future Novorossiya, retaking it will shatter the image of Russian victory domestically and worldwide. 

Especially worldwide, Russia argues partly conflict is meaningless, as its superiority makes it impossible for Ukraine to regain, and promotes pro-ceasefire, negotiations, and status quo solidification of the occupied territories. No other frontline nearing city has as much significance as Kherson, holding Lysychansk for 4 months will not equal the damage to Russia the retaking of Kherson will inflict.

Hopefully this will occur sooner than later. 

I still think that this is a trap and they'll drop the bridges and strike in Zaporizhya, cutting the landbridge. Kherson Orcs will the run away without a fight, losing all equipment. But I'm sure UA General Staff knows better and follows the best possible plan

 

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

I still think that this is a trap and they'll drop the bridges and strike in Zaporizhya, cutting the landbridge. Kherson Orcs will the run away without a fight, losing all equipment. But I'm sure UA General Staff knows better and follows the best possible plan

Yeah, when I read FancyCat's post, I wondered if this is a misdirection by UKR or not.  We'll see.  Is UKR trying to get RU to reinforce the north side of the river so that UKR can then cut the bridge and capture more stuff?  Why would they announce this?  For UKR morale?  But what if they fail and it drags on, then it's a morale buster.

[dan/california]

53 minutes ago, Huba said:

Using child soldiers is  a war crime all in itself. Terrible, really terrible...

Defended by RU army. For BA alone you'd need some pointy sticks and few bottles of vodka to make the march more pleasurable  On a serious note, the only part that's worrisome is of course the cost. It is not clear if those additional 300 M1s will be given by US for free, or we'll have to pay for them (perhaps by some "circular exchange" mechanism in place). But even if Uncle Sam gives them away for free, the cost of setting up the whole infrastructure, modernization etc is going to be huge. And it's only the tip of the iceberg regarding the rearmament program. We'll be introducing a whole new integrated AD setup for 25B$ in next decade, new frigates and submarines, doubling the size of land forces, buying 500 frigging HIMARS ( i hope that's just negotiating strategy, it's just a crazy number), F-35,  150K AT grenade launchers, the list is really endless. I only hope nobody get's an idea to drive all of this on Moscow at some point. Or Berlin...

I still think that this is a trap and they'll drop the bridges and strike in Zaporizhya, cutting the landbridge. Kherson Orcs will the run away without a fight, losing all equipment. But I'm sure UA General Staff knows better and follows the best possible plan

 

 

Out of likes, so i will post 100% agree. Not sure a country with as little a coastline as Poland needs a navy much beyond anti-ship missiles. Mind you I would have enough of those to sink the entire Russian navy two or three times.

[Huba]

Talking about manpower reserves:

 

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Out of likes, so i will post 100% agree. Not sure a country with as little a coastline as Poland needs a navy much beyond anti-ship missiles. Mind you I would have enough of those to sink the entire Russian navy two or three times.

We have 2 batteries of NSM. And main Baltic Fleet base in Kaliningrad in range of 155mm, and a nice fleet of mine countermeasure ships. Apart from that I agree that Navy is kinda a solution in search of a problem. One advertised task for it is securing shipments of LNG and oil, as after cutting Russia off, all of that has to go through ports. Realistically though, in case of conflict with Russia we'd need much more than 3 Arrowheads 140 that we are getting to secure anything outside the Baltic. If It was up to me, I'd swallow my pride, and instead got a maritime strike squadron.

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Out of likes, so i will post 100% agree. Not sure a country with as little a coastline as Poland needs a navy much beyond anti-ship missiles. Mind you I would have enough of those to sink the entire Russian navy two or three times.

That is assuming the Russians still have a navy after this war.  Although considering their overall performance does the Russian fleet even count as a navy?

[Billy Ringo]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

That is assuming the Russians still have a navy after this war.  Although considering their overall performance does the Russian fleet even count as a navy?

Or an air force?

[Calamine Waffles]

[dan/california]

45 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Apparently he has NOT been forgiving and forgetting in retirement. Also a great cartoon.

Edit, added the very important NOT...

.

Edited July 11, 2022 by dan/california

[gnarly]

6 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Battery technology is just not energy dense enough for combat use at this time, unfortunately.

I think that is only one of many limitations to battery use of front line military vehicles. 

 

 

 

And as someone else mentioned, once they start burning, they are VERY difficult to extinguish

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/22/tesla-fire-sacramento/

 

 

[rocketman]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Apparently he has NOT been forgiving and forgetting in retirement. Also a great cartoon.

Edit, added the very important NOT...

.

At first glance I thought it was Bono grown old in a hurry :))

[Fenris]

I knew this automatic firing mortar existed but I've never seen one in use

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

WTF is there anything we don't have someone on this forum with detailed knowledge of?  Having driven my Dodge Ram van in enough parking garages worrying about hitting the sprinkler lines I can attest to the height problem.

This is the power of open source and crowd-sourcing.  I do think it needs filtering and vetting (thank you @BFCElvis, long may you reign) but the ability to pull in expertise from so many different corners to make sense of extremely complex problems is the future.  

How we avoid echo chambers and self-reinforcing bias is also tricky but for those that think we are vulnerable here try spending some time in a 5EYES ASIC - we have to hire red teams just to let some air in.

If anyone is hunting for material for a graduate thesis on the future of collective thinking there is about 1000 pages just sitting here.

Edited July 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Interesting they targeted a police base. Rosgvardia units don’t appear on battlefield anymore right, beyond those columns in the first waves? Some assistance to the partisan units is nice to see occurring.

This is yet another problem that Russia faces.  To control a hostile population you need thugs of some sort of another.  Thugs needs to be organized, housed, and fed.  They also need to be clustered together for safety, for there is (usually) safety in numbers.  This means centralized facilities for rather sizeable amounts of thugs, even for relatively minor urban environments.

In a typical partisan environment this sort of centralized strategy decreases the chances of losing thugs to relatively small numbers of attackers.  For example, a small outpost with a half dozen thugs in it could be eliminated, or at least effectively neutralized, by as few as 2 skilled and patient attackers.  2 skilled and patient attackers isn't difficult for partisans to field.  But 2 skilled and patient attackers against a barracks with dozens of thugs?  Not going to do much.

The really interesting aspect of this war is Russia not only has to fight partisans armed with bombs and small arms, but also ones effectively armed with HIMARS.  Ukraine has just shown that 2 skilled and patient attackers, with just a bit of local knowledge, can wipe out the barracks with one phone call to the right people 60km away.  And there is nothing, and I mean nothing, the thugs can do about it.

The dilema, then, is the same one that the rest of Russian facilities face... decentralization for safety/survivability or centralization for efficiency/effectiveness.  With decentralization the 2 skilled and patient attackers can only kill a portion of the thugs with one phone call.  Better than losing all the thugs at once, but what if the partisans have more than 2 skilled and patient attackers with the ability to dial up a Ukrainian artillery unit day or night?  Eventually the same end for the thugs, just a bit longer to make it happen.

The Ukrainian attack on the thug barracks was likely designed to send Russia a message that whatever they concentrate will be destroyed.  Now Russia has yet another headache it needs to solve quickly.

Well played Ukraine!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

While Russia is taking a moment or two for their operational pause, I think it's a good time for us to think about what comes next for this war.  I'll get the ball rolling...

Ultimately this war will end only when Ukraine or Russia can no longer effectively kill the other.  Since both believe this war will decide their fate as nations, I don't see either of them willingly seeking to end the war before they think they have won.  Therefore, it will come down to which nation can fight longer than the other.  I think I've been pretty clear I believe all the evidence of this war and the weight of history show Ukraine will be the ultimate victor.

Historians can advise on what the likely outcomes might be given a particular set of circumstances, but the larger scale the topic the more elusive predicting the timeframe is.  I said on Day 3 of this war that Russia has already lost it, but it would take some time for it to become reality.  I had hoped that it would have happened right around now, but sadly it hasn't yet happened.  Why?  Because there's just too many variables for Russia to play with to extend how long it is able to wage war.

Some might say "ah, Russia is finally learning how to fight!".  Not me.  I think Russia is fighting just about as poorly as it did in the first few weeks and months.  It hasn't learned much of anything.  The change in tactics we've seen are mostly because it no longer has the physical strength to fight they way it used to nor the way it wants to (i.e. quickly end the war through bold actions).  If 10 full strength BTGs magically appeared out of thin air, they would say "ah-ha!  Now we can make a bold and decisive attack without air cover, without coordination of arms, without favorable terrain, and without a demoralized enemy that isn't armed with often times superior defensive weaponry".  I do not think for a second they would do otherwise.

What Russia has been more successful at is figuring out how to not collapse.  I am impressed at how many tricks Russia has up its sleeve to keep the cannon fodder moving to the front, to put into service 60 year old weaponry, to keep the domestic population controlled, and to completely reject reality in the mistaken belief that Russia will eventually win because it's Russia.  However, all of these tricks are just that and tricks always have a limited number of times they can be used.  It is also true that when a new trick is required it is harder to find than the previous one.

Russia has many tricks up its sleeves, but sleeves always end at the shoulder.  There is a definite end to what Russia is able to do to keep this war going, we just don't know where that definite end is with any certainty.

Steve

 

[MSBoxer]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia has many tricks up its sleeves, but sleeves always end at the shoulder. 

And the shoulder is perilously close to the jugular vein