Cederic Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, dan/california said: The situation in Belarus continues to simmer but not boil. Lukashenko may collapse from simple exhaustion as he desperately tries to appease his own power structure and Putin at the same time. They are demanding incompatible things. Although the obvious interpretation at the time was that Belarus was transporting its artillery ammunition stocks to Russia to cover the losses from ammo dumps becoming smoke clouds, I did wonder if there was another angle at play: Crippling the Belarus military in case they rose against Lukashenko. Given Putin's comments this week about accelerating the 'unification' of Russia and Belarus, there's another tension at play: Is Russia intending to annex Belarus, in which case they don't want the Belarus army fighting Russian forces. My guess is that Putin's demanding Belarus join the war against Ukraine, Lukashenko is telling him "I can't, my troops just won't fight, they'll revolt against me" and the end game is that there's going to be a protracted bloody civil war in Belarus that becomes indistinguishable from war with Russia. So much like the Donbas. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, MikeyD said: Remember several days ago there were reports of Russia taking (stealing) the Belarus army's stockpile of artillery shells, working round the clock to load them onto trains. Before that Russia was reported to have 'bought' Belarus warfighting provisions to make up for their own shortages. I wonder just how much Belarus warfighting potential remains intact. A a successful revolt in Belarus is STILL the definitive way to end this war with a Ukrainian/Western victory. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Excellent Kamil thread about actual and potential unrest in Central Asia. He seems to think there is a non zero chance of a near complete melt down 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 This is less than cheerful. Still the best argument for outright NATO intervention. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, dan/california said: This is less than cheerful. Still the best argument for outright NATO intervention. Time to stop adding that ethanol to gas... Or so I heard. Definitely it's time look for more sources of food in the world in case Russia completely stops to to play the ball. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Huba said: Time to stop adding that ethanol to gas... Or so I heard. Definitely it's time look for more sources of food in the world in case Russia completely stops to to play the ball. That was the dumbest idea ever, or at least a contender for the prize. It exist only because of a quirk in the U.S. electoral system that I won't bombard the thread with. And yes it should be ended immediately. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) Interesting news about UA Air Force. Perhaps they intensified their sorties when Russians rushed out of their own AA cover in Lysychansk salient. 1 hour ago, dan/california said: A a successful revolt in Belarus is STILL the definitive way to end this war with a Ukrainian/Western victory. For now it's still a dream- populace is passive, afraid of any hostilities and lack arms. Ukraine War actually plays into Lukashenka's field as "protector" against threats both external and internal. People may even hate him from bottom of their hearts, but in current situation he is somebody who is realistically viewed as bulwark against chaos, both from Russian or internal side. Luka is a bastard, but known bastard... Of course when Ukraine will defeat Russia in this war and if RUS importance will crumble...situation can change very fast. If (in a lucky scenario) power at Kremlin would truly desintegrate, then such course of events is actually quite expected. Edited July 3, 2022 by Beleg85 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) Melitopol getting HIMARSed tonight - or at least it looks like that. Video is geolocated and shows multiple explosions at Melitopol airbase, around 75 km from the front line. And Belgorod! Busy night... Edited July 3, 2022 by Huba 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) Seems to be that the missiles got shot down, with debris causing damage in civilian areas in both Kursk, and Belgorod, so looks like Russian AD is improving. I am not familiar with operating ranges for helicopters, someone in this thread had stated Chornobaivka, Kherson International Airport, was being used for helicopters despite being in range of artillery due to the infeasibility of other sites, so are you saying Ukraine can prevent the usage of helicopter assets by striking these bases since they can't be based further away? HIMARS able to do so? Or does the firing method from the helicopters allow them to be based further away beyond HIMAR range? Edited July 3, 2022 by FancyCat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamine Waffles Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 1 hour ago, FancyCat said: Seems to be that the missiles got shot down, with debris causing damage in civilian areas in both Kursk, and Belgorod, so looks like Russian AD is improving. I am not familiar with operating ranges for helicopters, someone in this thread had stated Chornobaivka, Kherson International Airport, was being used for helicopters despite being in range of artillery due to the infeasibility of other sites, so are you saying Ukraine can prevent the usage of helicopter assets by striking these bases since they can't be based further away? HIMARS able to do so? Or does the firing method from the helicopters allow them to be based further away beyond HIMAR range? There aren't any other nearby airports. You'd have to set up one. The combat range of, example, an Mi-28 is 200 km with 10 min loiter and 5% reserve. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Extremely unpleasant, but not really surprising. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Shtrafbat 2022! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxromana Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, dan/california said: Extremely unpleasant, but not really surprising. No documents = legally unlawful combatants? Francs Tireurs and subject to summary execution, legally? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 I can't believe the prisoners would go for that willingly - they of all people would know how Russia treats people. "Recruiting" probably means "forcing" here, except for some murderers and rapists looking for a fix I guess. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 On 7/1/2022 at 2:06 AM, Butschi said: I fail to see what the Jews and their neighbors have to do with it. I don't deny that Ukrainian have suffered a lot at the hands of Russians. I even said explicitly that I don't trust the current Russian government at all. But I do not accept categorical statements like that it is impossible to come to an agreement with Russians because they never honour them. We know this isn't true because there were agreements with Russians that were honored in the past. That is the whole point I want to make. Israel has just as violent and aggressive neighbors that all want to see them dead. Nobody there bothers to sign many agreements - because there aren't many topics to negotiate about. Same goes for agreements with russians. They want to see us dead. It's them, who are categorical about it. And they make sure we know it too, through all the "creative" warcrimes committed daily. And it sure isn't government there on the ground doing those. So just as with Israel's case - there aren't a lot to agree on with russians. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 1 hour ago, kraze said: because there aren't many topics to negotiate about. There is no point negotiating with Colonel Sanders if you are a chicken. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 8 hours ago, dan/california said: Excellent Kamil thread about actual and potential unrest in Central Asia. He seems to think there is a non zero chance of a near complete melt down Looks like protesters have succeeded, probably the best outcome for all involved: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said: I can't believe the prisoners would go for that willingly - they of all people would know how Russia treats people. "Recruiting" probably means "forcing" here, except for some murderers and rapists looking for a fix I guess. Yes, from the text it looks like they are tortured and have no choice really. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 RU is blaming UKR for recent Belgorod shelling with 5 dead. As usual they say it was UKR revenge but for loss of Lysichanks. No mention of RU murder strikes at Kremenchug mall or Odessa houses. Also, they blame West for providing HIMARS that allegedly were used. We did nothing when we were suddenly attacked by heinous foreigners. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 8 hours ago, Beleg85 said: Interesting news about UA Air Force. Perhaps they intensified their sorties when Russians rushed out of their own AA cover in Lysychansk salient. No, if you read daily reports of our Air Force Command you can see +/- the same number of sorties 12-20 per day. Russians have enough aircraft and don't need to move all of them to Donbas. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seedorf81 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 3 hours ago, dan/california said: Extremely unpleasant, but not really surprising. Again ww2 parallel: Hitler had the Dirlewanger-brigade. Not good news for Ukranian civilians. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 They are grabbing everybody they can Quote The goalkeeper of the Russian national hockey team Ivan Fedotov, detained on suspicion of evading the army, was sent to Severomorsk The goalkeeper of the Russian national hockey team Ivan Fedotov, who was detained on suspicion of evading the army, was sent to Severomorsk at the place of possible military service. Alexey Ponomarev, the hockey player's lawyer, told TASS about this. 25-year-old Fedotov was detained on July 1 in St. Petersburg near the Kupchino ice arena. The hockey player was sent to the military enlistment office on Zagorodny Prospekt, where a few hours later he became ill. After that, he was hospitalized. The lawyer said that he had no information about Fedotov's current state of health. According to Ponomarev, a medical commission was held at the military enlistment office, at which the hockey player offered to provide medical documents that he "has problems with his spine and with his feet since childhood," but all his complaints were ignored. Ivan Fedotov previously played for the clubs "Neftekhimik", "Salavat Yulaev" and "Tractor". Since 2021, he has played for CSKA Moscow. In May, it became known that Fedotov signed a contract with the Philadelphia Flyers of the National Hockey League (NHL). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 I don't know what hit Belgorod, but over Kursk Russian AD shot down two old Soviet jet UAVs Tu-141. Looks like this is just more psychological pressure on local population, than some military effect except spotting of AD positions. I don't know if it possible to put HE inside bow compartment of Tu-141 instead of photo devices and how much if yes. Also theese UAVs can't be guided like modern birds, they just use programmed route, so their accuracy like kamikadze would be approx like Kh-22 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornGinger Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 44 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said: Hitler had the Dirlewanger-brigade. You of course meant "the Germans" and not "Hitler" as he had Eva Braun and his dog Blondi. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) Pictures from the evacuation of Snake Island: And a video showing fall of GMLRS on Melitopol (unfortunately not directly): Edited July 3, 2022 by Huba 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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