How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Officially claimed UKR troops forced Russians to withdaw from Ivanivka village in north of Kherson oblast, but no claiming that Ukrainian forces entered and hold the village.

Position of Russian "spearhead" on Kryvyi Rih axis in Vysokopillia got more worse. In the triangle Arkhangelske - Vysokopillia - Novovoznesenske is operating Russian 205th MRB (at least 2 BTGs on MTLBVM, but maybe and whole brigade in full composition) of 49th CAA of Southern military district and forces of 10th Spetsnaz brigade of Southern military district. Several days ago Russians moved here reinforcements - BTG of 34th MRB (mountain) of the same 49th CAA (also has MTLBVMK and MTLB-6V as combat transport).

 

Great info especially about equipment and units. I don't have any more likes so thank you!

[sburke]

Can we take this review of old tv shows to a different thread?  it is just filling up space unnecessarily in this one

[Grigb]

Parsing RU channels found unofficial RU view on what happened during 2-12 May at Seversky Donets crossings. (FYI @Battlefront.com). Sorry if it was already posted. Usual disclaimer - this RU point of view but it does not look like propaganda exercise. Changed all names to Google Maps standard. For maps I used ImageShack. It says the account is free but also trial, so most likely they will be gone in 30 days.

Quote

Part 1

On May 2-3, the Allied forces crossed the Seversky Donets near Shypylivka.

After the crossing, Russian forces engaged the garrison of the settlement [Shypylivka]. There were no combat-ready detachments in Shypylivka, the garrison retreated towards the Pryvillya.

The Russian units scattered in small groups across the terrain. Fighting broke out near Novodruzhes'k, on the outskirts of Pryvillya and Bilohorivka. For the occupation of Shypylivka, a relatively small force was used, which amounted to less than half of the BTGr.

On May 4, the bridgehead near Shypylivka was lost.

This happened, most likely, due to the underestimation of enemy forces in the surrounding settlements. There was a full-fledged battalion of the AFU in Pryvillya, which was soon reinforced from Novodruzhes'kand Lysychans'k.

On the night of May 4 to 5 and in the afternoon of May 5, powerful artillery strikes began along the left bank of the Seversky Donets from Serebrianka to Pryvillya . According to reports from local chats, the shore and the vicinity of Shypylivka "were littered with the corpses of the AFU."
  

On May 5, the Allied forces crossed the Seversky Donets near Serebrianka .

It did not work out to gain a foothold on the opposite shore: combat-ready [AFU] units from Sivers'k were transferred to Serebrianka . Sivers'k  itself included newly rotated AFU units from Severodonetsk, which were replaced by territorial defense detachments and national battalions.

The artillery strikes of the AFU positions continued for several more days.

Part 2

On May 7-8, Russian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets River near Bilohorivka .

Russian troops managed to occupy the dominant heights near the coast (the so-called Shypylivka Mountains) and take the outskirts of Bilohorivka along Pervomayskaya Street [Google does not have it. It is Pershotravneva vulytsia in Yandex maps].

After that, the AF of the RF faced fierce resistance from Ukrainian units. The fortified area of the AFU was located in residential buildings and near a chalk quarry.

On May 8, the Allied forces brought a full-fledged pontoon crossing over the Seversky Donets near Bilohorivka to put armored vehicles into battle.

Ukrainian artillery began to work on the crossings. Before the first pontoon was disabled, several pieces of equipment were transferred to the opposite shore. The Allied forces continued their offensive on Bilohorivka , where the Ukrainians transferred reserves from Seversk.

Under Shypylivka, the AFU detachments were again able to be pushed back to Pryvillya.

On May 9, the pontoon crossing near Bilohorivka was restored. The transfer of up to 100 units of equipment to the occupied bridgehead began. The approximate plan was to consolidate the success in Bilohorivka and near Shypylivka with Pryvillya, as well as to prepare the assault on Sivers'k.

For some unknown reason, the equipment was not brought into battle and was left near the cape on the other side of Shypylivka Heights.

On the night of May 10, presumably, the AFU conducted aerial reconnaissance and found a huge accumulation of equipment at the crossing. Artillery delivered a massive blow to the vicinity of Shypylivka Heights.

Most of the equipment transferred to the eastern shore of the Siverskyi Donets (with the exception of the BTGr equipment involved in the battles in Shypylivka and Bilohorivka ) was disabled.

Part 3

On May 11-12, units of the Allied forces from Kreminna and Rubizhne were transferred to the Russian forces remaining on the west bank of the river to storm Pryvillya. Fighting continues in this area.

When assessing the described events, some authors wonder how such a large amount of equipment was collected on the active sector of the front, which could be covered with one blow. Others are trying to analyze the UAV videos and find vehicles of NM LNR or AFU [some RU propagandists tried to claim BMP-1s were AFU or LDNR].

We will note only a few points. Even if we imagine that the BMP-1 NM of the LPR and even several Ukrainian armored vehicles were really filmed, the essence remains the same: most of the lost equipment can definitely be attributed to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

Judging by the photo, some part of the abandoned equipment can be repaired and put into operation in the future. Even taking into account the losses in equipment, some units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation still managed to cross to the other side. However, their progress without the introduction of new units into battle will be difficult.

We will refrain from making judgments regarding responsible officials and hope that the command will independently and promptly make all the necessary conclusions and make appropriate decisions.
 

  

 

[Grigb]

Closing topic of Uzbekistan for now here is civilian "Girkin " (Nesmyan) quote regarding situation in the whole region

Quote

Events in Uzbekistan threaten to stand in line with those in Kazakhstan. The frequency with which internal cataclysms occur in different countries indicates a difficult situation in the region, and structurally all the contradictions are quite similar: both the Kazakh and Uzbek presidents are "young" by local standards. "Young" in the sense that they have come to power, which has already been divided by the previous elites. Therefore, there is an inevitable conflict of interests.

By the way, something similar may happen in Turkmenistan in the future. Although the father was succeeded by his son here, and the father seems to be nearby, paternally instructing the young leader, but a generational conflict between the young president and the old guard of the father is inevitable...

In general, the region is starting to shake. Russia is losing both influence and opportunities in the region, and the crisis in Uzbekistan can show how much. So far, the plot is developing in the interests of the power clans, which under Karimov actually became a kind of praetorian guard — unaccountable, uncontrolled and politically independent. The state of emergency, forcibly introduced in the Karakalpak Autonomous Region, is beneficial primarily to the security forces, who can now use this regime to create control over President Mirziyoyev. And over any of his attempts to limit their power. And, it is clear that Mirziyoyev will be forced to solve the problem — to give up and turn into their puppet or risk and start a tough political struggle, which may well develop into something more serious.

In a region resembling a powder keg, such events and processes can become fatal for everyone. It's only need a one match here.

Looks like while discussing crisis management for RU going down, we missed that RU downfall will ignite all regions where RU compressed issues but never truly resolved them. Given Taliban is around the corner I would say it is not just one pressure cooker that is going to explode.  

Edited July 2, 2022 by Grigb

[LongLeftFlank]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Closing topic of Uzbekistan for now here is civilian "Girkin " (Nesmyan) quote regarding situation in the whole region

Looks like while discussing crisis management for RU going down, we missed that RU downfall will ignite all regions where RU compressed issues but never truly resolved them. Given Taliban is around the corner I would say it is not just one pressure cooker that is going to explode.  

Some history from (Kazani) Galeev, though he hasn't (yet) explicitly waded into the present day implications.

 

 

Edited July 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Beleg85]

Eng.: Very interesting. The head of the command post, Major Aleksandr Kovrikov from the 152nd Missile Brigade, is reported to be dead. First, the Kaliningrad brigade (Chernyakhovsk), second - with the Iskanders.

People like him should be deep dehind the frontline. Perhaps another effect of new Ukrainian artillery?

[Huba]

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Eng.: Very interesting. The head of the command post, Major Aleksandr Kovrikov from the 152nd Missile Brigade, is reported to be dead. First, the Kaliningrad brigade (Chernyakhovsk), second - with the Iskanders.

People like him should be deep dehind the frontline. Perhaps another effect of new Ukrainian artillery?

Well, even arctic brigades, or units from Sakhalin are reportedly deployed, Kaliningrad is relatively close in comparison. IIRC around 2 weeks ago Ukrainians hit port in Skladovsk in the southern Kherson oblast, there were rumors that there was ballistic missile depot there.

Edited July 2, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

41 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Closing topic of Uzbekistan for now here is civilian "Girkin " (Nesmyan) quote regarding situation in the whole region

Looks like while discussing crisis management for RU going down, we missed that RU downfall will ignite all regions where RU compressed issues but never truly resolved them. Given Taliban is around the corner I would say it is not just one pressure cooker that is going to explode.  

 

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Parsing RU channels found unofficial RU view on what happened during 2-12 May at Seversky Donets crossings. (FYI @Battlefront.com). Sorry if it was already posted. Usual disclaimer - this RU point of view but it does not look like propaganda exercise. Changed all names to Google Maps standard. For maps I used ImageShack. It says the account is free but also trial, so most likely they will be gone in 30 days.

  

 

Both of these are excellent. Your translations and insights are very much appreciated.

[Huba]

49 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Closing topic of Uzbekistan for now here is civilian "Girkin " (Nesmyan) quote regarding situation in the whole region

Looks like while discussing crisis management for RU going down, we missed that RU downfall will ignite all regions where RU compressed issues but never truly resolved them. Given Taliban is around the corner I would say it is not just one pressure cooker that is going to explode.  

Great Game continues into it's third century. Locals seems to have more agency then previously, but the new main player will be China. In the meantime, Karakalpakstan is boiling:

Edited July 2, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

41 minutes ago, Huba said:

Well, even arctic brigades, or units from Sakhalin are reportedly deployed, Kaliningrad is relatively close in comparison. IIRC around 2 weeks ago Ukrainians hit port in Skladovsk in the southern Kherson oblast, there were rumors that there was ballistic missile depot there.

True, a lot of kaliningraders were already dead. But unit that operate Iskanders being hit is rare.

 

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

Great Game continues into it's third century. Locals seems to have more agency then previously, but the new main player will be China

It seems a local issue as of now, Black Hats were long at odds with government. China is doing what it does best- probably only looking now without direct involvment on any side. But if try to involve in any way it may go at odds with Kremlin. But if they do and Putin will do nothing, this may indeed be a barometer for future of the region.

 

Edited July 2, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

True, a lot of kaliningraders were already dead. But unit that operate Iskanders being hit is rare.

 

It seems a local issue as of now, Black Hats were long at odds with government. China is doing what it does best- probably only looking now without direct involvment on any side. But if try to involve in any way it may go at odds with Kremlin. But if they do and Putin will do nothing, this may indeed be a barometer for future of the region.

Turns out the video I linked is from yesterday, the crowd is not "new". As you say, this is local at moment and really an internal matter mostly. In the long run though, I really pity the Central Asia countries, trapped between rock and a hard place (and crazies in the south..). This is one area where Russia will be able (and probably welcome both by locals and the West) to meddle even when it decays and loses any relevance in Europe and on the Caucasus.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Looks like while discussing crisis management for RU going down, we missed that RU downfall will ignite all regions where RU compressed issues but never truly resolved them. Given Taliban is around the corner I would say it is not just one pressure cooker that is going to explode.  

Thank you for keeping us plugged into the inner workings of the "Stans" (as we collectively call them).  Very early on in this war we had a good conversation about this region, but not much since then.  It was pretty obvious that once Russia started removing ground forces from disputed areas there would be temptation for changes by locals there.  We already saw some of this in Nagorno-Karabakh where Azerbaijan fairly quickly started flexing its muscles again.  In fact, here is an article from Radio Free Europe about the situation there:

https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-lachin/31921828.html

And of course there is Georgia and the frozen conflict there.

However, it goes well beyond that.  It's not difficult to see that the Russian government is totally preoccupied by all things Ukraine related.  The economy is in the crapper, which means less resources to corrupt.  There's also the fact that arms exports are probably off the table for a few years.  Any group in the Caucuses of the Stans that aided Russian control out of greed or fear is finding themselves in a new world where Russia's ability to bribe and threaten is at an all time low since the early 1990s.  Those that actively supported Russia are probably starting to think about saving their own skins, those that actively opposed Russian influence are thinking now is the time to act.

Yup, things are going to change in Central Asia quite significantly over the next few years.  Of that I'm sure.

Steve

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

Turns out the video I linked is from yesterday, the crowd is not "new". As you say, this is local at moment and really an internal matter mostly. In the long run though, I really pity the Central Asia countries, trapped between rock and a hard place (and crazies in the south..). This is one area where Russia will be able (and probably welcome both by locals and the West) to meddle even when it decays and loses any relevance in Europe and on the Caucasus.

It all depends how serious China will be with its Belt and Road; for now they avoid serious political involvment deeper in Central Asia. Uzbekistan can be quite crucial in this project, if they really mean it.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Parsing RU channels found unofficial RU view on what happened during 2-12 May at Seversky Donets crossings. (FYI @Battlefront.com). Sorry if it was already posted. Usual disclaimer - this RU point of view but it does not look like propaganda exercise. Changed all names to Google Maps standard. For maps I used ImageShack. It says the account is free but also trial, so most likely they will be gone in 30 days.

  

 

Thank you!  It was posted here (I think I found it in a Twitter post somewhere), but all I have is the Google Translator version of it.  It's much nicer to read with your translated maps  I've saved your yours in place of the one I have

I found this account to be pretty accurate.  It also covers some of the more obscure aspects of the overall operation.  This was a really useful source for getting the timeline of the crossing attempts figured out.

Steve

[sburke]

Lukashenko says Belarus intercepted attempted missile strikes by Ukraine (msn.com)

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Eng.: Very interesting. The head of the command post, Major Aleksandr Kovrikov from the 152nd Missile Brigade, is reported to be dead. First, the Kaliningrad brigade (Chernyakhovsk), second - with the Iskanders.

People like him should be deep dehind the frontline. Perhaps another effect of new Ukrainian artillery?

if he's the head of the command post I expect we'll have some more additions for the list soon.

[Grigb]

Murz summary of Lisichansk withdrawal

Quote

Last night, the enemy in the [Lisichansk] "boiler" promptly loaded everybody (whom they could reach by comms) into the remaining working trucks. The enemy took away the backbone of his combat-ready units from Lisichansk to new defensive lines. The column numbered about fifty cars, if not more.

Big greetings to all the propagandists who a week ago told us about how "the last highway from the city was cut by our fire". No one has turned this escape into a real hell. All the units that have retained control, that is, de facto, the most experienced and motivated fighters (for those destruction or capturing we formed the boilers in the most unfavorable [for us] conditions - this is assuming the goal was dictated by military science, and not PR) the enemy withdrew, giving them enough opportunity to drink our troops blood to the maximum before withdrawal. Now they will receive new NATO equipment and will sit on the outer defensive contours of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk fortified area.

[Haiduk]

Again back to the video with destroyed PAntsyr S1

UKR military journalist Yuriy Butusov claims Ukrainian artillery used German-designed SMArt 155 artillery rounds. This shell contains two autonomous self-guided top-attack EFP submunitions. Range - 27,5 km. Can be used in PzH 2000 and M109 howitzers. Manufacturer claims this weapon is effective even against armor, equipped with APS.

More details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMArt_155

Butusov claims that destroyed yesterday Pantsyr S1 was hit with SMArt 155. Also he writes on 2nd July Russian column was shelled with this ammunitions and 8 vehicles were damaged or desroyed (ok, I hope we will see a video soon)

https://censor.net/ru/news/3351716/vsu_nachali_ispolzovat_nemetskie_samonavodyaschiesya_snaryady_smart_dlya_unichtojeniya_bronetehniki

Edited July 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Calamine Waffles]

Stanimir Dobrev back on MHV
 

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major ??? Kuzmin, commander 2nd Company, 2nd Separate Spetsnaz Brigade:

“Almost all the guys from special forces [presumably this Brigade or one of its detachments] were killed in Ukraine…”

Edited July 2, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Grigb said:

Girking confirms that Pushilin decree to control "humanitarian" goods most likely has the goal to decrease effectiveness of fighting aka hardcore LDNR units.

 

This is very interesting.  Something like this doesn't happen without a reason.  And in an autocratic government, that reason is likely part of a centralized plan of some sort. 

For sure Russia needs to make sure that DLPR "sings from the same hymn" if they decide to seriously engage in cease fire talks.  My guess is that Russia is well aware that this isn't 2014-2021 where Ukraine will just sit on its hands when there's a cease fire violation.  Since Russia needs this war to go cold as soon as possible, it is not in its interests to have DLPR forces engaging Ukraine without explicit permission of Moscow.  It seems that Moscow is not all that sure DLPR will ask for that permission.

It is not difficult to imagine a scenario where the line is largely cold and DLPR forces try to do something offensive in nature.  Ukraine would then be able to clobber it and that would not be in Russia's best interests if Ukraine decided to keep on going.

Not that I think there's much chance of a cease fire.  Even after Russia believes it has enough to fake a victory and end the "special military operation", I don't think Ukraine will agree to whatever terms Russia offers.  Which means Russia is fretting about something that is likely irrelevant.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Murz summary of Lisichansk withdrawal

Heh.  I was waiting for something like this.  Didn't take very long for the more clear minded Russian bloggers to notice that there was no "cauldron" and Ukraine seems to have slipped away rather easily.

I'm sure Girkin will have something similar to say very shortly.

Steve

[Grigb]

Another rant from Murz regarding comms preparedness of RU for war

Quote

I had a post in May that was accessible for less than a day, becasue Roskomnadzor [RU censor] "froze". In the post, I posted photos of the communications equipment of the R-168 complex, issued to people for the war by the our own Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation...

The result of that shame is that most of the radio stations in that batch, not really bad radio military encrypted-circuit radio stations, cannot be used for their intended purpose due to the fact that they do not have normal batteries.

Actually, the stability of field communication in general is determined not by the presence of radio stations, one, two, three or ten, but by how many batteries you have for them, how many sources of electricity you have. And whether you have the ability to constantly charge batteries from these sources. Lack of batteries or if batteries are rubbish - there is no communication, even if the stations themselves are very good. A typical example is the situation with "Arakhis"[something like R-392 AK-2], an encrypted communication complex, the batteries for which were originally made of not vey good elements, and then were put into storage together with the stations and were not serviced until the thunder struck [suddenly become much needed]. First time, en mass, with a lot of blood, it surfaced in the winter of 2014-2015, when it turned out that the batteries kept charge for 2-3 hours instead of at least 6-9. Were there any systematic changes since then? No. All sorts of "whiners and defeatists" [he talks about himself and his group of volunteers] are forced to continue patching up systemic failures with folk remedies [basic handicraft tricks]. However, against the background of the monstrous shortage of military radio stations themselves and, most importantly, relay equipment, the issue of batteries does not always have time to manifest.

This post, in fact, was originally generated by the fact that I spent a couple of days earlier this week in Donetsk (DPR), where I had to participate, so to speak, in distributing unencrypted analog radio stations to the troops. And I brought a few pieces back with me to distribute to reservists in the LPR. Instead of joyfully smashing these radio stations with a hammer, because it's a shame to fight with such an equipment in 2022, but the reservists have nothing else. And, most importantly, there are no specialists capable of competently maintaining encrypted military or civilian radio networks, they still have to be painfully grown for a long time. Just like any specialist.

I cut the rest - he ranted that it looks like Chinese manufacturers are flooding RU market with low quality batteries that have much smaller capacity than their price and documents suggests.

 

 

[dan/california]

The situation in Belarus continues to simmer but not boil. Lukashenko may collapse from simple exhaustion as he desperately tries to appease his own power structure and Putin at the same time. They are demanding incompatible things.

[MikeyD]

Remember several days ago there were reports of Russia taking (stealing) the Belarus army's stockpile of artillery shells, working round the clock to load them onto trains. Before that Russia was reported to have 'bought' Belarus warfighting provisions to make up for their own shortages. I wonder just how much Belarus warfighting potential remains intact.