How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Pretty much but unfortunately, we do not know the last piece of puzzle - what reserves/reserve tricks they prepared. It could be nothing or could be something. 

Kremlin acts now as if it is either in deep delusion or has some kind of joker card to push UKR toward peace deal. So, it is entirely possible tomorrow we will wake up to the news of RU new push toward Kiev and Belarus entering war. Obviously, it will end up as an even bigger defeat but for the couple of days we will be subjected to a sky is falling panic.  

Putin's about to receive official report from Shoigu in a moment, in one of those TV transmitted meetings. No doubt they'll announce victory in LNR, but probably some of the plans for what's next will be revealed too. I wonder if not fighting for DNR would be an option for them, and going to the defensive from the current status quo? It's going to be interesting for sure...

[panzermartin]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Galeev had a recent thread that was interesting, where he talks about the banning of aid to the separatists by Russians akin to the civil society efforts to support the war effort by Ukrainians we have seen. Galeev's thread is a bit too long and rambling but he suggests something I wanted to highlight. Russia seeks to prevent any civil society from developing, even positive pro-war ones like aid networks to pro-Russian units in Donbas since it bypasses existing power networks and can be beyond the government's influence. Also I guess we shouldn't underestimate the importance of skimming off the top of the military shipments to the republics from Russia that would be harder thru informal networks like aid groups.

I think the point made by many that mobilization is a significant destabilizing factor is important here, destabilization could allow the empowerment of suppressed groups more easily, including people like Girkin who want to go hardline on Ukraine, but the Kremlin found them hard to leash so purged them in the Donbas.

Certainly Girkin would have a better chance of attaining a position of authority when Russia is mobilized then right now.

 

 

Yes good points. I guess Russian empire, the communist party, Soviet Union etc has always been like that, so people involved and have a clue, should not be surprised.

[Huba]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

1. The "Border" front (from the borders with Belarus to the Kharkiv region):
Without significant changes. The situation is gradually but continuously heating up. Artillery skirmishes, actions of the DRG [Recon Diversion Groups]. The enemy is increasing shelling and drone attacks deep into Russian territory. The goal is to force the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to maneuver with existing air defense units to cover cities, weakening the cover of troops at the front and in the near rear + "additionally raise the prestige of the Russian government and the president personally among the population of the shelled settlements."[sarcasm, yes] Both sides are gradually pulling troops to the border. I predict that by the end of the summer (if not earlier) this front will also become quite active - which - in the absence of mobilization measures in the Russian Federation - will be beneficial only to the enemy, due to its mobilization, which will soon be able to field a much larger number of "linear" units and formations, even if they are light infantry.

That is an interesting point to make.

If we agree with this general line of reasoning, the conclusion can be made that if Belarus with it's weak army gets somehow involved in the hostilities, after an initial shock is contained it might easily become liability to RU war effort. If BA army is not able/ willing to hold the line, RU would somehow had to find forces to secure additional hundreds of kilometers of frontline, or risk BA falling. One more reason why I don't think Putin will force Luka to join the war.

Edit:

Reportedly Ukrainian flag was raised on the Snake Island.

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

How much artillery ammo does Russia have?

With their tactics of destroying whole cities, how long can they keep up the barrage, especially with the ammo losses from storage sites being blown up?

I'm guessing they won't have any problems with producing more shells, as it's not exactly hi tech. But that maybe their exisiting stores will be depleted and they might be forced to start to conserve ammunition?

[Grigb]

Sometime ago there was discussion about whether RU forces can live next to dead bodies of their comrades. Also, we discussed reports of recruiting criminals into RA. Here is an interesting quote - a recent sketch from RU front line. 

Quote

"Kherson" [nickname] went for walkie-talkies when the Grads [missiles] arrived. Apparently, the enemy saw or heard the infantry fighting vehicles that entered the oil mill and fired 10 missiles. Several people were injured, and "Kherson" was killed. He was well over 40 years old, with life experience you can see on his face. Someone ordered to put him near the entrance, so as not to forget to take the body away, but they forgot to do it due to the usual military fuss.

So the "Kherson" lay for a couple of days, until one military specialist from the intelligence with whom we worked did pay attention:

- Why won't they take him? The mobilized are passing by... young... It can be morally oppressive.

- It may put pressure on the mobilized, but nothing presses on these [guys] at all in my opinion, - I replied and nodded at the Marines of the 9th regiment.

They lit a fire in a barrel, made the light getting power from car batteries — neon lanterns created comfort. Someone turned on the music on the phone and it started:

"And I am nothing to you—just like you are to me!
I spit on the law — you put me in the [prison] camps!" [criminal song]

The Marines went with mugs of strong tea [very strong tea is RU prison trick to get high when you have neither vodka nor drugs] and sweets, from the stormed warehouse of the "Sweet Life", sometimes saying:

- It's a pity for "Kherson"...
- Be careful not to step on his head!..
- Aw, f*ck... Kherson, bro...

After looking at this picture, the officer smiled back at me. We understood each other. I started a philosophical conversation about the difference in the perception of death between us and our enemies through the prism of folk folklore, citing the proverb as an example: "Maxim died — well, f*ck him!", but we were again distracted by the activity of the enemy, who was sitting five hundred meters away from us

Marines are supposed to be an elite. Yet this group of marines are either low level thugs or outright prisoners. Chifir is not something pleasant to drink and is not used in the Armed Forces.  

[The_MonkeyKing]

18 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

How much artillery ammo does Russia have?

With their tactics of destroying whole cities, how long can they keep up the barrage, especially with the ammo losses from storage sites being blown up?

I'm guessing they won't have any problems with producing more shells, as it's not exactly hi tech. But that maybe their existing stores will be depleted and they might be forced to start to conserve ammunition?

• For reference US military had 20mil 155mm shells in storage when the cold war ended.
• Soviet ammo is at this point mostly outside of its shelf-live and the stockpiles where split among the Warsaw pact countries.
• They can make new ammo but the will have the same or worse challenges of upscaling the production as the west.
• Russia has according to Michail Koffman lot less ammo than everyone is expecting. They have only downscaled this aspect in the resent decade.
• Analysts are generally surprised that we are still to seeing any significant artillery ammo rationing but the Russian side.
• Russia has lots of different systems and they are going to have different ammo situations. For example Russian 152mm is generally not interchangeable with all platforms firing it.
• Russia is already moving ammo out of Belarus. This is an indication, but it might just be the case this ammo is closer than the the Russian far east stockpiles

[Bulletpoint]

44 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Russia is already moving ammo out of Belarus. This is an indication, but it might just be the case this ammo is closer than the the Russian far east stockpiles

Even so, it might be a sign that the effective rate of fire will go down as Russia has to source ammo from farther away?

And if so, it might mean that the current brute force tactics will run out of steam?

[Grigb]

 

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

How much artillery ammo does Russia have?

Let's try to guess.

According to RUMINT there are 2 million tons of various ammo in RF (probably it is before the war). Given total weight of 152 mm ВОФ39 shot is 80 kg then there could be max 25,000,000 rounds of 152mm. But realistically though mush less - something like 10,000,000-15,000,000.

Duration of war is around 130 days. 130 days x 50,000 rounds per day =  6,500,000. They are losing ammo in warehouse strikes but also getting ammo from production and Belarus stock. So, my guess we are talking about half may be one third of rounds left.

So, if I am right, ignoring logistics issues, they probably can last at least a month but most likely two to three.

[Harmon Rabb]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Good job exposing this fraud. I wonder what his motivations were. Just a grab at fake fame, or was the profile some kind of Russian propaganda tool?

Possibly intended to start out all enthusiastic to gather followers and later the guy would suddenly become "disillusioned" and start to reveal Ukrainian "warcrimes" etc.

Did this guy ask for donations from his followers? If so he was probably just a sleazy conman trying to profit from a war, where a lot of folks feel sympathy for Ukraine and are willing to send money over.

If he was working for Russian intelligence I'm sure they could have provided him with a photo of a real rifle so he could continue his disinformation campaign.

[Billy Ringo]

Has to be a major morale buster for Russian soldiers to see massive smoke columns coming from Russian arms depots off in the distance.

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

 

Let's try to guess.

According to RUMINT there are 2 million tons of various ammo in RF (probably it is before the war). Given total weight of 152 mm ВОФ39 shot is 80 kg then there could be max 25,000,000 rounds of 152mm. But realistically though mush less - something like 10,000,000-15,000,000.

Duration of war is around 130 days. 130 days x 50,000 rounds per day =  6,500,000. They are losing ammo in warehouse strikes but also getting ammo from production and Belarus stock. So, my guess we are talking about half may be one third of rounds left.

So, if I am right, ignoring logistics issues, they probably can last at least a month but most likely two to three.

According to analyst (example Kofman) That 50 000 is inflated. Even as much as order of magnitude.

Also there are 122mm and mortars.

[DMS]

56 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Here is an interesting quote - a recent sketch from RU front line. 

Please could you post a proof link?

[cesmonkey]

4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Did this guy ask for donations from his followers? If so he was probably just a sleazy conman trying to profit from a war, where a lot of folks feel sympathy for Ukraine and are willing to send money over.

If he was working for Russian intelligence I'm sure they could have provided him with a photo of a real rifle so he could continue his disinformation campaign.

As someone who enjoyed followed https://twitter.com/canadianukrain1 and now misses his posts now that he has gone, let just say that comments like the above are proof how easily rumors get started on social media.

From what I saw, he never asked for donations, encouraged people to donate to legitimate channelers of donations.

Additionally, he said he was still in Canada, from where he was tweeting, but his two or three buddies, ( I can't remember how many), we're actually fighting in Ukraine.  They emigrated as youngsters from the former Soviet Union to Israel, served in the Israeli army, then he eventually emigrated to Canada. 

I don't have any proof of the above, beyond what I remember him tweeting over the last few months.

[Taranis]

With all the Russian warehouses blowing up, it's all going to add to their strain. We'll just have to wait a little longer to feel the effects.

"Ammunition warehouse of Russian forces exploded at Yakovlivka village in Donetsk region"↓

 

"Fire at Schehlovka in Donetsk"↓

 

"Fire at Hryhorivka/Hvardeiyka in Donetsk"↓

"Explosion of warehouse with ammunition in Snizhne"↓

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Taranis

[The_MonkeyKing]

8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Even so, it might be a sign that the effective rate of fire will go down as Russia has to source ammo from farther away?

And if so, it might mean that the current brute force tactics will run out of steam?

Because of ukrainian deep strikes Russians are going to have to distribute the logistics and often farther away from the front.

This is going to have multiple different cumulative effects. The end result might very well be less Russian attacks less frequently.

The logistics stail will become more in inefficient, unresponsive, harder to protect, more wear and tear ext.

Think of Amazon logistics being forced to distribute their operations into let's say 20 employee locations at maximum. Vs there absolutely huge fulfillment centers...

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, DMS said:

Please could you post a proof link?

Here it is buddy. Do not forget to check the photo.

[Grigb]

19 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Has to be a major morale buster for Russian soldiers to see massive smoke columns coming from Russian arms depots off in the distance.

They are really concerned.

[DMS]

29 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Here it is buddy. Do not forget to check the photo.

"Good manners" in Internet - to post links always.

This is fiction story. Vladlen Tatarsky is writer, he published several books. "Based on true events" (he was there), but still fiction.

Edited July 4, 2022 by DMS

[Grigb]

Just now, DMS said:

"God manners" in Internet - to post links always.

If you try to read what I post you would notice that I do post links in the vast majority of cases. Even if I forgot to post in one case, I did immediately provide it. 

 

Just now, DMS said:

This is fiction story. Vladlen Tatarsky is writer, he published several books. "Based on true events", but still fiction.

Let's make a basic credibility assessment:

• He provided photo of Kherson body. You provided...
• He is there. You are...
• He is a reporter well known for useful reports from the front lines. For example, Combat experience of a UAV operator with the call sign "Angel". You are...?

Never mind.

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

According to analyst (example Kofman) That 50 000 is inflated. Even as much as order of magnitude.

It depends what period and intensivety you take. I took worse case scenario.

50,000 divided by 900 tubes is 55 rounds per gun per day. It is close to 1 ammo load (60 rounds) of 152mm which is AFAIK their historical max per gun per day (they could shoot far more but with long preparation and for shorter period).  Even with my worst-case scenario we see they can last at least a month probably two or three.  

Stock itself is not the issue yet. (Obviously, I could be wrong)

 

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Also there are 122mm and mortars.

122mm AFAIK was phased out some time ago. Stock was given to LDNR. Also I left like 1 million ton for all other types of ammo.

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

As someone who enjoyed followed https://twitter.com/canadianukrain1 and now misses his posts now that he has gone, let just say that comments like the above are proof how easily rumors get started on social media.

From what I saw, he never asked for donations, encouraged people to donate to legitimate channelers of donations.

Additionally, he said he was still in Canada, from where he was tweeting, but his two or three buddies, ( I can't remember how many), we're actually fighting in Ukraine.  They emigrated as youngsters from the former Soviet Union to Israel, served in the Israeli army, then he eventually emigrated to Canada. 

I don't have any proof of the above, beyond what I remember him tweeting over the last few months.

Never followed the guy but from what I have heard from others that I follow on Twitter like @IAPonomarenko is that he made up a lot of his stories. Because I never followed the guy I also have no proof of this.

But anyway lets get back to discussing the war and not Twitter drama.

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

122mm AFAIK was phased out some time ago. Stock was given to LDNR. Also I left like 1 million ton for all other types of ammo.

I recall Murz (or was it Girkin?) ranting over lack of 122mm and LDNR gunners hastily retraining on D-20s. He specifically pointed that there was no more 122mm ammo left in one of the MDs (Southern?).

Meanwhile, first daylight video of UA HIMARSes himarsing Russians:

Also, today was the first meeting of a EU led group for rebuilding Ukraine after the war:

 

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

I recall Murz (or was it Girkin?) ranting over lack of 122mm and LDNR gunners hastily retraining on D-20s. He specifically pointed that there was no more 122mm ammo left in one of the MDs (Southern?).

It was Murz - LDNR arty was in trouble around end of April - beginning of may because Western district was running out of 122mm. RU army phased out 122mm previously and 122mm stock was rather limited.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Additionally, he said he was still in Canada, from where he was tweeting, but his two or three buddies, ( I can't remember how many), we're actually fighting in Ukraine.  They emigrated as youngsters from the former Soviet Union to Israel, served in the Israeli army, then he eventually emigrated to Canada.

I found his posts very early in the war.  He absolutely, unequivocally, portrayed himself (personally) being in Ukraine and fighting.  When people first started to question his authenticity he tried to "prove" he was there by posting pictures that anybody could have made at home with an Airsoft rifle.  As he posted he revealed more and more reasons to dismiss him as a fraud.  Since then he might have tried to reinvent himself as people were shunning him.

To the best of my knowledge he never once posted anything from Ukraine that was original.  The other Twitter accounts of people fighting in Ukraine absolutely did.  A lot.  So he stood as an outlier for that reason alone.

Long ago I became convinced he is a fraud.  Personally, I think he was doing it for egotistical reasons, not financial gain.

Steve

[paxromana]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm guessing they won't have any problems with producing more shells, as it's not exactly hi tech. But that maybe their exisiting stores will be depleted and they might be forced to start to conserve ammunition?

Actually historical experience shows trhat there WILL be a huge problem ... munitions factories (and armament factories in general) simply do not have the capacity to simply switch on such massive increases. New production lines will have to be built, workers trained, ancillary industries also expanded. WW1 and WW2 experience suggest around a year would be required if the society were fully mobilised ... but Russia isn't and the severe economic sanctions will hamper their efforts anyway.

Also, someone here posted something a while back that indicated large swathes of Russian heavy and military related industries are still using Soviet era machinery which is ... wearing out ... and someone suggested that the explosion at the munitions factory in the Urals may have been due to clapped out gear.

Of course, as still others have pointed out, its not all that likely that the Russians will last long enough for it to matter.