How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

If you think RU cannot get even crazier:

In Ekaterinburg somebody glued Putin portrait to a gas distributor surrounded by a fence as an obvious reference.

Big problem for local authorities. They could not leave it like this because it is Putin portrait. But they also could not scratch it off because it is Putin portrait. 

However, they found a solution. They covered it with cloth! 

 

Like the story of the bartender from Good Soldier Svejk - can't take down the portrait of Franz Josef from the wall, but can't keep it hanging there, cause flies s**t all over it. 

[FancyCat]

Best not to impact Russian grain exports, which if restricted would only raise food prices and cause instability worldwide, which is not beneficial for the West. As far as I'm concerned, the main point of the sanctions should remain impacting the ability of Russia to import, they can export all they want, money is worthless if they cannot buy the materials needed to maintain their economy.

[Grigb]

RU comms reality

How it looked on paper - pay attention to drone repeater.

 

How it is in real life

On other hand it does work.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Andrey Melikhov, senior expert of the Military Scientific Committee of the Airborne Forces of the Russian Federation:

what the heck was he doing near the front?

[dan/california]

39 minutes ago, sburke said:

what the heck was he doing near the front?

They have scraped the bottom of barrel, then cut up the barrel with a torch and thrown the pieces into the fight. When that couldn't keep up with the cargo 200 coming back by the trainload, or just being burned in pits, they got out an excavator and started digging a hole where the barrel used to be, sort of, maybe. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[billbindc]

Huawei accelerates the Chinese takeover of the Russian economy: 

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5436796

[Beleg85]

Interesting link from Kherson axis with UA units visible. It is telling that opsec there is particullary strict.

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

As result it looks like RU developed the following tactics. They keep the front line with infantry teams but concentrating bulk of mechanized forces several km behind. The idea is to build up enough forces along the front line to be able to attack across several axis driving fast through gray zone. And the goal is not to breakthrough in to UKR rear but to reach an urban terrain several km behind front line before UKR starts bringing reinforcements with drones.

Urban terrain allows RU to mitigate to large extent UKR drone superiority and arty accuracy. So, it enables RU both defend and advance, suffering much less losses (relatively speaking). As far as I understood this is how they managed to dismantle Zolotoe-Gorskoe bulge.

It would be interesting to see if Ukrainians will attack in similar fashion. In Kherson area open battlefields seem to very much enforce such "village hopping" on both sides, with relative protection given by housing as only relatively safe "anchor" for troops. Ukrainians have elements of 4-6 brigades there (+TD and specialists) but as of now they are unable to break RU lines. So we have this "village dance" with strong artillery and probably smaller SOF teams.

This front will also be very interesting for discussions about future of warfare.

Edited July 1, 2022 by Beleg85

[sburke]

Former defense secretary James Mattis rips Putin's 'pathetic' military performance in Ukraine: 'We're watching Russia wither before our eyes' (msn.com)

When asked during the forum what military lessons could be learned from Russia's more than four-month-long war with Ukraine, Mattis replied, "One is don't have incompetent generals in charge of your operations," according to the news outlet. 

purportedly he also said the Russia general staff is worse than PowerPoint.  

[Huba]

There's some very interesting info in today's ISW update. Apparently RU economy is being secretly set on the wartime footing. There won't be a official war, but  instead "special military operations" will be codified in the law to circumvent it.

Quote

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine. The Kremlin proposed an amendment to federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the Russian State Duma on June 30, that would introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” obliging Russian businesses (regardless of ownership) to supply Russian special military and counterterrorist operations.[1] The amendment would prohibit Russian businesses from refusing to accept state orders for special military operations and allow the Kremlin to change employee contracts and work conditions, such as forcing workers to work during the night or federal holidays. The Kremlin noted in the amendment’s description that the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine exposed supply shortages, specifically materials needed to repair military equipment, and stated that Russian officials need to “concentrate their efforts in certain sectors of the economy." Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely mobilizing the Russian economy and industry to sustain the ongoing war effort, but has not yet taken parallel measures to mobilize Russian manpower on a large scale.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-1

[Gary R Lukas]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

It is worth pointing out that this corner of Ukraine tucks right up against Romania. It is more than likely that this operation was covered a NATO AWACS putting out enough radar to cook seagulls halfway to Crimea. Anything launched at that artillery would be spotted the instant it launched. The gun would have time to redeploy.

It isn't the Ukr air force that is holding them back, it is the SAMs

The_Capt, we don't deserve you , but we sure as bleep appreciate you!

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/army-to-test-its-biggest-interactive-drone-swarm-ever-over-utah

The U.S. Army seems to have gotten the memo on drones, at least for the most part. Unfortunately they don't seem to have gotten the memo that helicopters are just over.  They are utterly vulnerable in Ukraine now, and as you eloquently point out neither side in Ukraine is playing with anything close to a full suite of modern capabilities

Let me preface this comment by reminding everyone that I am the guy that thinks NATO air power should just join the war and The Polish Army should be passing through Kyiv on the way to the front as we speak. You can't be more anti Russian/pro Ukraine than I am without arguing for a straight up nuclear first strike. 

I don't think we should cut the Russians off from the hybrid seeds. The disruption in food production is one of the strongest levers Putin has at the grand strategic level in this war, and I honestly think hurting Russian grain production costs The Ukraine/NATO/The West more problems than it causes Russia. Putin doesn't care how many Russians starve. He won't even blink if all of Africa does. Honestly, I am right back to NATO joining the war and trying to end this thing quickly...

The world clearly needs to bring more grain production on line as quickly as humanly possible, but it was getting grown in the belt extending from Ukraine thru Russia to Kazakistan for a reason. It is not going to be trivial to replace that production.

Edit: And the U.S. Congress needs to pass the bill to subsidize a BUNCH of U.S. semi conductor production NOW, before China attacks Taiwan and the world economy just dies.

Well said, I'm 100% with you. I had Great Grandparents and Grandparents who immigrated to the United States in the early 1900's, They lived in Poland close to the Ukrainian Border. They were pushed out by Lenin's Communists. They told me stories about how the Polish people and Ukrainian people got along so well and referred to them as cousins. I served in the Marines from 1982-1989, my MOS was 0351/0352, TOW Missiles, the M-47 Dragon ATGM, and the LAAW [Light Anti-tank weapon and Demolitions] with a little cross training on the M-60A1 Tanks. In the 8 years that I served all we were taught was how to defeat the Russian Armored Juggernaut, and honestly after I started learning more and more about the Communists and Soviets, I started to really dislike them, almost a hatred towards them. The hatred I had towards the Russians wasn't against its people but centered more on their leaders and military. I know what the Germans did to them in WWII and what the Soviets did to the Germans while they raced to Warsaw and Berlin how many in the Soviet Army acted like animals towards the Polish and German People. When I started watching the war that Putin unleashed on Ukraine, I figured it was a war like many before it, but after seeing the Atrocities against the Ukrainian People I clearly see that nothing has changed, the horrors that they committed against ordinary people, the old, young children and even babies made my blood boil. When I was a Marine, I wouldn't even think of doing that to any person, and if I saw anyone doing such a thing to civilians, I would have stopped it. I have a conscience that I have to live with, and I wouldn't be able to sleep if I witnessed something like that and did nothing to stop it. The Russian soldiers are acting in a barbaric way towards the Ukrainian people, almost like they are not even human. I hunt Deer and other animals like Wild Turkey, Elk, and Black Bear, and I always do my best to make sure that the animals I kill don't suffer, which is more I can say for the Russian soldiers killing civilians needlessly. If I had to kill a person in war or self-defense I can do it without hesitation, but I can't Murder somebody in cold blood. These so-called Russian soldiers are acting no different than the Roman soldiers or even the Huns, killing and murdering everybody they see. If Putin takes over the Ukraine, you know he's NOT going to stop there. I suspect he will start going after the Baltic Countries and Poland, maybe even Finland. I do have more to say on this topic but it's almost my bedtime.

[cesmonkey]

Here's a few videos looking at the training of Ukrainian troops on artillery systems in the UK. The must have had a press day earlier this week:
 

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

what the heck was he doing near the front?

A couple of months ago there was a BTR knocked out with a bunch of LTs in it.  Somewhere in the south.  One of the LTs was a meteorologist.  They are obviously so short on officers that they are moving around people based on rank instead of capabilities. 

Steve

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Here's a few videos looking at the training of Ukrainian troops on artillery systems in the UK. The must have had a press day earlier this week:
 

 

 

 

So secret there is 20 minutes of video in the SUN......

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Sorry, it looks like I confused you with my use of 'civilian Girkin'. This particular quote comes from Anatoly Nesmyan whom I call civilian "Girkin" because it is all what you need to know about him. Use him to check RU for civilian matters like I use Girkin.

Thanks for the clarification!  I saw the note you made and wasn't sure what to make of it.  Now it is all clear to me

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

But you are right in your assessment - all three guys I mainly translate (Girkin, Murz, Nesmyan) tend to be much more factually correct. All of them have unusual disdain for RU cheerleaders despite being on the same side (they are all Nationalists). And all of them prefer straight talk about issues rather than sugaring it or outright lying. Finally, they are much less crazy and blood thirsty than others. 

I have read many of the things Girkin and Murz have said and I look forward to reading more from Nesmyan as well.  From an analytical standpoint what they say is often more accurate and insightful than what I see in the Western media.  These are people who really know their subject matter and aren't afraid to be honest about how they see things.  As distorted as their view of the world is, they do seem to value facts even if they aren't flattering about their cause.

I think of these guys as the sort of agents for the SD in Nazi Germany.  They went out and accumulated a lot of information about the average German's view of particular things, in particular those having to do with the war.  I've read a fair number of the raw intel reports and they were really insightful.  The German population was not generally supportive of the war as early as 1943, but they were caught between the reality and propaganda.  They wanted to believe the propaganda because the alternative wasn't very pleasant.  But it's pretty obvious that the higher up one went in the SD the more distorted the information became because politics demanded it. 

My guess is that the Russian intel gathering leading up to this war was simialr.  Raw reports were probably more realistic and cautious than what Putin saw.  Each level of the FSB massaging what it received to the point that there were no sharp edges left by the time it got to the senior levels.  Emphasize what Putin wanted to see, discard the rest.

I really hope that at some point in my lifetime we get to see what really happened with Russian intel gathering prior to the war.  I'm so very curious to know at what the raw intel was and what Putin actually saw.

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

And indeed, Girkin himself is an interesting "actor". He is the enemy, no doubt about that, but the enemy you can respect.

Yup, Girkin is smart.  Very smart from what I can tell.  Bent in a really bad way?  Absolutely, but in a strange way he's honest.  Mostly because he doesn't feel the need to hide who he is and what his beliefs are.  He also seems to understand one of Sun Tzu's most basic principles:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

The lies the other nationalists tell each other creates a fantasy image of both their own side as well as their opponent.  Telling themselves that Russia can defeat NATO clearly demonstrates that.

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

[Artkin]

The most precise artillery strike I have ever seen. Two targets hit on the move.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vo5wzs/accurate_ukrainian_artillery_targets_two_claimed/

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Artkin said:

The most precise artillery strike I have ever seen. Two targets hit on the move.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vo5wzs/accurate_ukrainian_artillery_targets_two_claimed/

 

I am really thinking these were remotely triggered IEDs. This was clearly a targeted strike. It will be interesting to see if we ever get any more information, because this was a fair bit of effort for a couple of civilian cars that couldn't have held 8 guys

[Artkin]

A remote triggered explosion makes more sense than something like a DM-22 mine. I would be interested to know as well

[The_MonkeyKing]

22 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

Anybody know if the US delivered this, with the M777?

 

This looks like it: https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vploqq/destruction_of_russian_equipment_with_what/

[Haiduk]

22 hours ago, Huba said:

 

Ah, this rock arrangement of the "Four tankers and the dog" movie theme - my favorite movie in childhood  

 

 

Edited July 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ah, this rock arrangement of the "Four tankers and the dog" movie theme - my favorite movie in childhood  

 

 

This looks pretty interesting and well executed for its age, I searched the title, Pancerni and pies or smth. Mini series. Maybe we could find this somewhere online. Looks indeed like the kind of movie that haunts you as a little kid. Das Boot (in mini series) was the one for me. I was so excited when it was re-eleased as directors cut to the cinemas 20yrs later. 

 

Edit : Another old B&W polish film came to mind, one with the Warsaw uprising and many sewer battle scene. Any luck with that? 

Edited July 2, 2022 by panzermartin

[Haiduk]

50 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This looks like it: https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vploqq/destruction_of_russian_equipment_with_what/

I repeat this video as embedded - reportedly this is Pantsyr S1 was destroyed

 

[Calamine Waffles]

According to Theiner, it is BONUS fired from the CAESAR
 

 

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

This looks pretty interesting and well executed for its age

In some scences you can see soldiers with AK-47 rifles or IS-3 tanks on background, but in whole this is good series for all age, though the original book of Yanush Pshimanovski was written mostly for teenagers. The film is enough close to the book

Das Boot also great movie, I didn't know that inintially it was mini-series too.

Edited July 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

21 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

This looks pretty interesting and well executed for its age, I searched the title, Pancerni and pies or smth. Mini series. Maybe we could find this somewhere online. Looks indeed like the kind of movie that haunts you as a little kid. Das Boot (in mini series) was the one for me. I was so excited when it was re-eleased as directors cut to the cinemas 20yrs later. 

Wel, to say it has a cult status is an understatement. A few generations of Poles were raised on it, most actors made huge careers and it was an export hit very popular in the whole Warsaw Pact.  I have no idea how many times I sang the opening song while drunk with my buddies

It is available online, and Youtube's auto- translated subtitles are reasonably good:

Authentic "Rudy 102" tank they used for filming, a T34-85 with one side cut open for the cameras is on display in the armor museum in my city:

Bigger gallery

https://gloswielkopolski.pl/muzeum-broni-pancernej-w-poznaniu-jedna-z-atrakcji-czolg-rudy-102-z-serialu-czterej-pancerni-i-pies-zdjecia/ga/c1-14483589/zd/3921617

And museum webpage:

https://muzeumbronipancernej.pl/

Edited July 2, 2022 by Huba