How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

9 minutes ago, kraze said:

One of the reasons russians were extremely brutal in Bucha is because they encountered something they don't have at home - middle class living alright. In fact they spray painted "who allowed you to live this good?" on one of the buildings.

Us already living much better than them, despite being under their occupation just 30 years ago and despite all their "resources" - is one of the major reasons the war began in 2014. Russians are very envious bunch.

Did anyone take a photo of it? While I wouldn't doubt it existed, I've been trying to find evidence it was photographed, and the only english article I can find is from the UK Express, a trash rag.

They didn't have a photo I think.

Edited June 26, 2022 by FancyCat

[womble]

Lukashenko's sabre rattling in the direction of the Poles could well just be an excuse to not participate in any material way in actions inside Ukraine. "Sorry Vlad, we can't send any troops to cut the Lviv-Kyiv LOC, because of the threat of those pesky Poles." I get the feeling that Lukashenko's position is much less ideologically warped away from pure self-interest than Putin's. Where Putin, deep down, believes, in the face of all contradictory facts, that the West might come over the border, Lukashenko knows "we" won't without some serious additional provocations, and can make "promises" in that knowledge.

[Grigb]

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

One of the reasons russians were extremely brutal in Bucha is because they encountered something they don't have at home - middle class living alright.

it is incorrect assessment. Officers involved in massacre live in similar conditions. Soldiers from poor regions indeed live in noticeably poor conditions but nothing in Bucha was something they did not hear or see in Russia.  Moscow region (not Moscow) is very similar. 

 

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

 In fact they spray painted "who allowed you to live this good?" on one of the buildings.

I think I remember that photo and meaning I got is that you, Evil Nazis, must suffer instead of living good peaceful life. It was not about quality of life per se but more about lack of suffering you deserve for being Evil Nazis.

 

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

 Russians are very envious bunch.

Indeed, they are except they envy of Europe and US. Ukraine itself is very low on their radars. 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Lukashenko's sabre rattling in the direction of the Poles could well just be an excuse to not participate in any material way in actions inside Ukraine. "Sorry Vlad, we can't send any troops to cut the Lviv-Kyiv LOC, because of the threat of those pesky Poles." I get the feeling that Lukashenko's position is much less ideologically warped away from pure self-interest than Putin's. Where Putin, deep down, believes, in the face of all contradictory facts, that the West might come over the border, Lukashenko knows "we" won't without some serious additional provocations, and can make "promises" in that knowledge.

My thoughts exactly. I can't find it now, but I recall a great article about Lukashenka, that made a claim that his strategy to survival is playing stupid. Case in point, photos of his meeting with BA generals which showed maps of the planned invasion routes. He portrays himself as too incompetent to be an effective ally to RU, and a serious threat to anybody else. 

Putin would really like to have BA take a part in the invasion, but they won't, cause they have to protect the flanks against NATO. Everyone involved knows that this is BS, but as Poles and NATO are a threat and menace in official RU narrative, Lukashenka uses it to make sure BA army is not going anywhere. He's again playing dumb by pretending to believe in the RU narrative about NATO. 

Edit: This same interpretation can be applied to the recent nuclear escalation threats too. Putin might've tried to threaten the West by suggesting he'll deploy nuclear armed Iskanders in Belarus. A moderately credible threat in itself. Lukashenka adding that he'll make Belarusian Su-25s, of all other possible platforms, a nuclear weapons carriers just turned the whole threat into a joke. Again, he superficially pretends to be on board with RU, while giving a wink to the West that he's not to be taken seriously.

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

The State Duma proposed to allow military contracts immediately after the draft

Quote

At the plenary session on September 28, the State Duma may consider amendments in the second reading, in which it is proposed to allow signing contracts with school graduates immediately after conscription - without passing three months of military service. However, it is by no means proposed to send young people directly to armed conflict zones - they will have to gain experience for four months.

They are preparing to send kids to the fight. Well, not to the fight, just very close, to the areas UKR is going to pass after penetration of forward line. 

 

[hcrof]

17 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The State Duma proposed to allow military contracts immediately after the draft

They are preparing to send kids to the fight. Well, not to the fight, just very close, to the areas UKR is going to pass after penetration of forward line. 

 

So much for refusing to send conscripts to the front... These kids (presumably hauling ammo etc) will not get proper training but instead will end up being chewed up like the donbas cannon fodder 

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

No problem - there are nukes in Crimea. Since 2014. Nobody cared up until this year.

Hardly proves your point about being in full berserk mode now.  Crimea's a nation these days ... give your head a wobble.

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

superficially pretends to be on board with RU, while giving a wink to the West that he's not to be taken seriously.

What we call here "Two bob each way". No doubt putin has some cocktail ready for him. 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

What we call here "Two bob each way". No doubt putin has some cocktail ready for him. 

Well, Putin needs Lukashenko and his repressive apparatus to keep Belarus at least somewhat aligned with RU. I would say Belarus switch side the moment Luka dies.

[chuckdyke]

Just now, Grigb said:

Belarus switch side the moment Luka dies.

We have 4 systems Utopian, Democracy, Theocracy and Autocracy. From 0 to 10 Utopian scores 10, Democracy 7 Theocracy 4 and Autocracy 1. It is a matter of inclusion I based my numbers on. Democracy is the best out of a bad lot. The people from Belarus are Europeans like the Russians I feel sorry for them. Here we have people from all over the world who had a fair go. I am one of them and get on with most of them. 

[paxromana]

2 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

Speaking in St Petersburg, Mr Putin said Russia would help to modify Belarusian SU-25 warplanes so that they could carry nuclear weapons, in response to a query from Mr Lukashenko.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61938111

Maybe I missed it but the article doesn't explicitly say they are sending nuclear warheads, just that they are nuclear capable.  If it's supposed to be a nuclear deterrent surely you would show off the warheads ?  Also would they want to send that stuff to what might turn out to be an unstable government?

Exactly how many Iskanders do the Russians have left? And how many of those remainmg are they actually likely to give Lukashenko?

Especially since what they've got left is probably all they're ever gonna have with sanctions in place.

[Huba]

22 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Well, Putin needs Lukashenko and his repressive apparatus to keep Belarus at least somewhat aligned with RU. I would say Belarus switch side the moment Luka dies.

I think that strongly depends how the power vacuum there will be filled. It can end up under RU occupation as well. A while ago we went through "what if Putin dies tomorrow", I recall you gave a nice overview of the actors in the power struggle that will ensue. I wonder how that looks in Belarus, any idea? Luka's position seems to be much weaker than Putin's, and actual people might want to have a say about what happens next, as opposed to it being a palace fight as in Russia.

Another point in case of Lukashenko being a clown on purpose:

 

[Bulletpoint]

80 pct. casualties in elite Ukrainian unit.

[Letter from Prague]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

I think that strongly depends how the power vacuum there will be filled. It can end up under RU occupation as well.

I'm not sure the Russia has the strength to execute on that. They might have enough soldiers (or they might not!), but do they have the "leadership capacity" (for lack of better term) to fight Ukraine at the same time?

Especially as that would probably make the various Belarusian Legions say "sorry guys, we're going home" and what would Ukraine do then, say "sure" or "sure, take some javelins with you"? Would Belarusian army join the Russians, or the Legions, or stand aside or all of the above, depending on each individual soldier?

But I might be too optimistic as always.

[Huba]

I imagine that targeting data for that had to be provided by a satellite, given RU air defence around Izium. The effect of GMLRS introduction is already impressive, and it really is just a beginning...

 

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

it is incorrect assessment. Officers involved in massacre live in similar conditions. Soldiers from poor regions indeed live in noticeably poor conditions but nothing in Bucha was something they did not hear or see in Russia.  Moscow region (not Moscow) is very similar. 

 

I think I remember that photo and meaning I got is that you, Evil Nazis, must suffer instead of living good peaceful life. It was not about quality of life per se but more about lack of suffering you deserve for being Evil Nazis.

 

Indeed, they are except they envy of Europe and US. Ukraine itself is very low on their radars. 

They really don't. If you look up in google maps where those russian officers lived - you will find horribly dirty towns in the middle of nowhere. Of course if by officers you mean generals - then sure. But their generals come to the frontlines to die, not kill.

Sure quality of life in Europe and US is considerably higher than here - but they have absolute disconnect with Europe and US, they didn't get to occupy much of Europe and thus don't really care about if France or Netherlands live good.

But here comes Ukraine, a country they occupied for more than 70 years the last time and did everything they could to turn it into a ****hole - and yet in 30 years of independence Ukraine got ahead of them, adding insult to injury - Ukraine, still being corrupt (even if less so) and supposedly "borderland" - got ahead of them exactly during the war they themselves started. Before Feb 24 a so called "McDonalds burger flipper" was already earning close to average salary in Russia of 500 bucks. While millions of russians still live in wooden barracks.

This is what causes envy. They don't care if some Billy from Texas lives better than them. But when some Oleksa from Sumy lives better than them even when working some mundane job - this they can't stand. They are the Empire, the Metropoly, the Center of It All and we are the province and thus have to live worse than them - otherwise wtf is this?

Edited June 26, 2022 by kraze

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

But their generals come to the frontlines to die, not kill.

Certainly, a State Funeral with full military honors is a fringe benefit. Very nice uniforms at the airbase coffin nice and shiny and a salute whilst wearing white gloves. They shouldn't complain too much. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by chuckdyke

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Combatintman said:

Hardly proves your point about being in full berserk mode now.  Crimea's a nation these days ... give your head a wobble.

Russians occupied Crimea, proclaimed it's their territory and put nukes in there. Same can be done with whole Belarus no problemo. Belarusian army is in a horrible state, it's almost fully conscript, was purposefully decayed and robbed since USSR (much like it was in Ukraine until 2014, which resulted in Crimea grab and the war) and didn't have the relative luxury of having 8 years to be rebuilt, while learning how to fight russians.

So if putin suddenly decided "Belarus is mine now" - Belarusian army will crumble fast (especially with highly pro-russian leadership and infiltration) - and he can then put nukes in there too.

I mean technically nukes were put onto a territory of Ukraine, no matter how you spin it - and who knows, who knows - what if one of these days that bridge suddenly goes down, ships will get to meet Neptune with harpoons - and there will be no other way to evacuate those nukes.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

My thoughts exactly. I can't find it now, but I recall a great article about Lukashenka, that made a claim that his strategy to survival is playing stupid. Case in point, photos of his meeting with BA generals which showed maps of the planned invasion routes. He portrays himself as too incompetent to be an effective ally to RU, and a serious threat to anybody else. 

Putin would really like to have BA take a part in the invasion, but they won't, cause they have to protect the flanks against NATO. Everyone involved knows that this is BS, but as Poles and NATO are a threat and menace in official RU narrative, Lukashenka uses it to make sure BA army is not going anywhere. He's again playing dumb by pretending to believe in the RU narrative about NATO. 

Edit: This same interpretation can be applied to the recent nuclear escalation threats too. Putin might've tried to threaten the West by suggesting he'll deploy nuclear armed Iskanders in Belarus. A moderately credible threat in itself. Lukashenka adding that he'll make Belarusian Su-25s, of all other possible platforms, a nuclear weapons carriers just turned the whole threat into a joke. Again, he superficially pretends to be on board with RU, while giving a wink to the West that he's not to be taken seriously.

It was Galeev tweets probably. He made Luka looking like some sort of very intelligent, fool-pretending politician straight out of Icelandic sagas. He also made many factual errors (like Lukashenka supposedly high position within post-Soviet world).

I think truth is more mundane and simpler- Putin needs Belarus but simply have no valid replacement for Lukaschenka right now. He hates him personally (many experts on region underline this; btw the same was with Yanukovych) but possible successor puppet may be more fickle, lacking support of society (again-remember Yanukovych) and would need to be kept in power by Russian military directly. Outside coups are always risky business, as ultimately power may slip into hands of somebody we did not wanted. Putin lacks resources for that. So he will need to endure Lukashenko's rants and keep finding more and more bags of potatoes in his sleeping room as a gift of friendly nation. Sometimes life of a Czar can be unbearble...

Lukashanko has weak cards, but he play them pretty well and fits exactly in niche created by current crysis.

Interesting link about unlikely nuclear weapons in Belarus and what can be played instead.

Edited June 26, 2022 by Beleg85

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

My thoughts exactly. I can't find it now, but I recall a great article about Lukashenka, that made a claim that his strategy to survival is playing stupid. Case in point, photos of his meeting with BA generals which showed maps of the planned invasion routes. He portrays himself as too incompetent to be an effective ally to RU, and a serious threat to anybody else. 

Putin would really like to have BA take a part in the invasion, but they won't, cause they have to protect the flanks against NATO. Everyone involved knows that this is BS, but as Poles and NATO are a threat and menace in official RU narrative, Lukashenka uses it to make sure BA army is not going anywhere. He's again playing dumb by pretending to believe in the RU narrative about NATO. 

Edit: This same interpretation can be applied to the recent nuclear escalation threats too. Putin might've tried to threaten the West by suggesting he'll deploy nuclear armed Iskanders in Belarus. A moderately credible threat in itself. Lukashenka adding that he'll make Belarusian Su-25s, of all other possible platforms, a nuclear weapons carriers just turned the whole threat into a joke. Again, he superficially pretends to be on board with RU, while giving a wink to the West that he's not to be taken seriously.

 

But Lukashenko forces the Ukrainian army to keep strong forces near the Belarussian border. In that respect he's helping Putin. So he's far from harmless. 

[Letter from Prague]

11 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

But Lukashenko forces the Ukrainian army to keep strong forces near the Belarussian border. In that respect he's helping Putin. So he's far from harmless. 

He also had quite a few people put into gulags, tortured and murdered, and caused trouble for EU when his ****ery with immigrants served as advertising campaign for various far-right parties - who are in turn often on Putin's payroll. Oh and airplane piracy.

He's definitely a good candidate for hanging from a lamppost.

Edited June 26, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

He also had quite a few people put into gulags, tortured and murdered, and caused trouble for EU when his ****ery with immigrants served as advertising campaign for various far-right parties - who are in turn often on Putin's payroll. Oh and airplane piracy.

He's definitely a good candidate for hanging from a lamppost.

Amen to that.

[Beleg85]

Very interesting thread from Rob Lee about current Russian commanders:

 

[Ultradave]

6 hours ago, Combatintman said:

I would say that supplying nuclear weapons to Belarus is unlikely - it contravenes various nuclear proliferation treaties/conventions which I doubt Russia would contemplate given all of the other sanctions it is already under.  This is more of the same in terms of fairly empty threats to exert pressure in the Baltic.

It could also be a similar arrangement to NATO. The Russians could send the missiles but maintain control of the warheads at bases with Russian troops. The US has done that. "Giving" them the nuclear weapons openly. No one has done that (at least that we are aware of - relevant technology, yes, actual weapons, no) and would be a grievous violation of the NPT. 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

80 pct. casualties in elite Ukrainian unit.

This is 503rd separate marines battalion of 36th marines brigade. About 80 % of KIA/WIA relates to one of companies of this battalion, because company coommader tells about own detachment. According to loses places it participated in battle near Kyiv (Irpin'), near Verkniotoretske (Avdiivka direction, Donetsk oblast) and probably somewhere on the south in first days of war. Maybe most of losses were in theses days.

About motivation and combat capabiliies of 36th brigade according to Azov statements now exists difefernt opinions... And before a war also there were different talks that elite status of 36th brigade not match enough with real things. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Haiduk