How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/06/02/how-sweden-and-finland-could-reshape-natos-northern-security/

Sweden and especially Finland joining NATO will make a lot of Baltic people sleep a whole lot better. A vast reinforcement of the Northern NATO flank.

Edited June 2, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Armorgunner]

2 hours ago, rocketman said:

Sweden will support Ukraine with anti-sea missile Robot 17 (design based on US Hellfire) in unknown quantity, 5000 AT4 and automatic rifles.

The automatic rifles, seems to be the Barrett M82.

[Aragorn2002]

19 minutes ago, kraze said:

"In Russia, more and more people are against the war. " - what happened? They started losing it?

Body bags. Lots of body bags. That will change their mind. Nothing else will.

[LongLeftFlank]

15 minutes ago, kraze said:

"In Russia, more and more people are against the war. " - what happened? They started losing it?

Does it matter at this point?  Do you want them to give up and go home or don't you?

Your fever dream -- which I have a feeling long predates 2014 -- of the world somehow proscribing Russians from the human race as the Romans did the Sarmatii (unsuccessfully) isn't ever going to be a thing.

So you're going to need to find a way to live with Them afterwards.

[Huba]

It turns out that the Belgian M109s will make it to Ukraine anyway, Ukrainians purchased them directly from the private company that owned them.

 

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

LOL.

@BlackMoria is also the playtester who demolished -- no really, chewed and effing spit out! -- my CMSF1 Ramadi JOKER 3 urban hellscape (back a decade ago), taking only a single casualty! 

IIRC, he end ran the QRF column around the (obvious) insurgent kill zone, linked up the forces (replenishing ammo, which is key) and then brutally straight punched into the heart of the ghetto to relieve the cut off Marines.  Freeking legend! (I had to make quite some design tweaks to the scenario after that, I can tell you)

Canucks by and large are a peaceable people, but we do have hidden talents for war when put to it.  My uncles in the South Scotias and Seaforths told quite some stories  #TommySS

There is still a trick to that scenario, or at least there was when I played it. It is by the way the best scenario ever, period. It is just fun to play. There is a spot where you can bring the AAVs grenade launcher to bear on the primary concentration of insurgents that is just out of RPG range. The AAV has a LOT of 40mm ammo. You can just hose down that whole street and the  buildings on one side of it until the problem goes away. No, I didn't figure that out the first time thru.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There is still a trick to that scenario, or at least there was when I played it. It is by the way the best scenario ever, period. It is just fun to play. There is a spot where you can bring the AAVs grenade launcher to bear on the primary concentration of insurgents that is just out of RPG range. The AAV has a LOT of 40mm ammo. You can just hose down that whole street and the  buildings on one side of it until the problem goes away. No, I didn't figure that out the first time thru.

[LLF preens feathers modestly]

Yep, ammo supply (and casualty avoidance) is the key factor there, by design. What should really happen is that the insurgents fade away the moment their main force starts getting Owned, but the TacAI just ain't that smart.  I didn't want to induce a Surrender because it could be triggered without rescuing the trapped squads and that, not killing bad guys, was the point. But thanks for the kind words mate.

[BlackMoria]

I love that scenario.   And the map.   Wicked urban terrain.   Based on the feedback I provided, it got harder to complete without taking some casualties but playing it about a dozen times, I have managed to keep the casualties to a single digit each time.   A true gem of a scenario.  And that map.  Deep respect of LLF for painstaking doing that map.

Edited June 2, 2022 by BlackMoria

[sburke]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

"In Russia, more and more people are against the war. " - what happened? They started losing it?

Nope, they discovered washlets!

Washlet - TotoUSA.com

Now looting Ukraine just isn't as appealing. Putin has begun raising the concern of a little known Russian minority in Hokkaido!

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Russian lurkers, could this post-imperial condition honestly be any worse than the place your Tsar has put you in right now? Consider that Thais and Vietnamese today live better than you do now, under Western capitalist 'exploitation'. Without a fraction of your mineral wealth and human capital (although that is growing, fast!)

...Yet you have parliamentarians on talk shows frothing about nuclear war!  Do you think the Chinese will back you in that? What nonsense!  Xi and Modi will make common cause with the West long enough to put you down like mad dogs.

End this, now.  It's horrible, it serves no purpose.

well said, LLF.  It's insane.  An entire national culture built on victimization myths when for the last 75 years they are only victims of their own gov't.   

Thanks to all for another round of good posts.

Ex-artillery guy talks about the logistics of HIMAR type stuff:  BEWARE LIBERAL SITE ENTER AT OWN PERIL

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/1/2101780/-Ukraine-Update-Not-enough-Here-s-the-challenge-of-moving-even-four-HIMARS

I didn't realize each rocket can weigh 2.5 tons!  So loading must be quite the operation w some kind of specialized support equipment.  Can't wait for these to rain down on RU arty & LOC assets.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.

The defense of the eastern side of the river by Ukrainian forces will go on only as long as Ukraine wants or is able to keep fighting.  I expect they'll withdraw forces over the river in a particular area as soon as they feel they can't cause disproportional harm.  The terrain itself is largely useless for both sides, but if Russia wants to lose hundred of men taking it... let them.

Steve

From Dmitri

Galeev discusses the idiosyncracies of the Russian conscription system:

 

 

[MOS:96B2P]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

What a clown.

Wow.  This guy is a Russian senator but seems out of touch with reality.  I don't think he understands the predicament the Russian Federation is in.  They are going to keep this destructive behavior up until they destroy their military, economy,  political system, etc.  The entire house of cards will collapse with this attitude.  Some rational, pragmatic, sensible Russian power brokers need to wake up and end this. For their own survival if nothing else.  

I wonder how many different pieces the Russian Federation may dissolve into.......  Map makers will be busy I guess. 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

From Dmitri

Galeev discusses the idiosyncracies of the Russian conscription system:

 

 

In case people missed it, Perun did an excellent deep dive into Russia's ability to conduct a long war.  It's in two parts and both are worth listening to while driving or doing housework (visuals aren't necessary for his videos):

 

[JonS]

8 hours ago, Huba said:

Here's a quite comprehensive article about Russia's naval blockade and food crisis stemming from it.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/russias-war-on-global-food-security/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/russia-and-the-west-compete-to-secure-safe-passage-for-ukraines-grain?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Very noble response from Baykar. Also great PR.

This war has made Bakyar a player in the global arms market, they seem more than smart enough to keep climbing that ladder.

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Russia Goes After British MP’s Son for Killing of Chechen Commander in Ukraine (msn.com)

He will be Prime Minister some day, if he lives through this war.....

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Wow.  This guy is a Russian senator but seems out of touch with reality.  I don't think he understands the predicament the Russian Federation is in.  They are going to keep this destructive behavior up until they destroy their military, economy,  political system, etc.  The entire house of cards will collapse with this attitude.  Some rational, pragmatic, sensible Russian power brokers need to wake up and end this. For their own survival if nothing else. 

This is a common refrain from the Duma guys as well as the general ultra-nationalists.  I expect that SOME might understand that what they are saying is utter BS, but I suspect that most lack the intellectual capacity to properly comprehend the world as it really is.

It's been said that one of the biggest dangers the world faces is a warmongering nuclear armed nation where the levers of power have drank the same Kool Aid as the brainwashed masses.

Russians have been told that they are the dominant military power in the world.  They have been told that they can win a nuclear exchange because their wonder weapons will protect them.  That's dangerous.

Compare this to the West.  By and large our people, and certainly our leaders, know that any use of nuclear weapons isn't likely to end well for anybody.  Period.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 hours ago, akd said:

I believe Pushilin was subsequently seen in Mariupol:

Death of the Chechen Police Lt. Col. Zaur Dimaev on 31st May was already noted earlier in the thread.

Pushillin was on RT saying all is fine, so even if wounded it isn't a significant wound.  The source of the wounding was a Ukrainian government source, but no verification:

https://press.ukranews.com/en/news/860570-terrorist-pushilin-wounded-in-donetsk-region-herashchenko

Steve

[BlackMoria]

Aahhh..... Those wonder weapons they have faith in?  Like their oversold, overestimated vaulted military.  Someone needs a coffee enema to clear the toxins poisoning their brain.   Maybe, just maybe .... I don't know.... perhaps consider the possibility that your wonder weapons will perform as well as your army and equipment is performing in Ukraine.  Just saying...

[G.I. Joe]

53 minutes ago, sburke said:

Nope, they discovered washlets!

Washlet - TotoUSA.com

Now looting Ukraine just isn't as appealing. Putin has begun raising the concern of a little known Russian minority in Hokkaido!

 

+1 Out of likes...

Given the level of competence we've seen so far in Special Military Operation: Final Blyatzkrieg, I'd bet good money that would end in Japan getting the Kuril Islands back.

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

+1 Out of likes...

Given the level of competence we've seen so far in Special Military Operation: Final Blyatzkrieg, I'd bet good money that would end in Japan getting the Kuril Islands back.

I will bet bet a great deal of money that one of the places this crisis ends is Japan becoming a nuclear power. They are the opposite of stupid, and see how countries with the bomb get treated vs countries that don't have it. The have the plutonium, my bet is it wouldn't take them six months. I wouldn't be surprised if we are two months into that six month program.

Edited June 2, 2022 by dan/california

[Sequoia]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

T

Russians have been told that they are the dominant military power in the world.  They have been told that they can win a nuclear exchange because their wonder weapons will protect them.  That's dangerous.

Steve

Hopefully our intelligence sources will continue to keep the Free World powers that be alert to something ominous.

[dan/california]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a common refrain from the Duma guys as well as the general ultra-nationalists.  I expect that SOME might understand that what they are saying is utter BS, but I suspect that most lack the intellectual capacity to properly comprehend the world as it really is.

It's been said that one of the biggest dangers the world faces is a warmongering nuclear armed nation where the levers of power have drank the same Kool Aid as the brainwashed masses.

Russians have been told that they are the dominant military power in the world.  They have been told that they can win a nuclear exchange because their wonder weapons will protect them.  That's dangerous.

Compare this to the West.  By and large our people, and certainly our leaders, know that any use of nuclear weapons isn't likely to end well for anybody.  Period.

Steve

One of my greater worries about this whole disaster is that Putin is sitting around watching his own government's propaganda, and believing it.

[G.I. Joe]

27 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I will bet bet a great deal of money that one of the places this crisis ends is Japan becoming a nuclear power. They are the opposite of stupid, and see how countries with the bomb get treated vs countries that don't have it. The have the plutonium, my bet is it wouldn't take them six months. I wouldn't be surprised if we are two months into that six month program.

I'm not sure if Japan, of all places, would go back on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty...

But at this point I would not be at all surprised if we see some sort of Asian equivalent to NATO before too long (Japan's constitution and Taiwan's ambiguous diplomatic status are hurdles of course). I also would not be at all surprised if the follow-on to the Izumo class has an angled deck, EMALS and an air wing with C-model F-35s, maybe also F/A-XX and/or a naval version of the Mitsubishi F-3. I also would not be surprised if Japan were to follow Australia's lead on nuclear powered submarines...

Heck, I wouldn't be too shocked if the final list of Gerald Ford-class CVNs ends up reading like something out of Starfleet: Lexington, Midway, Shokaku, Zuikaku...

Edited June 2, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[kraze]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Does it matter at this point?  Do you want them to give up and go home or don't you?

Your fever dream -- which I have a feeling long predates 2014 -- of the world somehow proscribing Russians from the human race as the Romans did the Sarmatii (unsuccessfully) isn't ever going to be a thing.

So you're going to need to find a way to live with Them afterwards.

Eh, they all support the war, they are just against the responsibility. "Going home" means they will have to suffer the consequences. So either support it till the bitter end or pretend to be against it so maybe the guy will be the one to avoid personally suffering the consequences of his own actions/inaction.

What I want won't change russians. Only our army will and does.

As for living with them - pretty sure that's easily resolved. By not letting them in anymore.

 

P.S. I dig your comparison with Roman Empire though. Ukraine, the big intimidating empire that wants to eliminate the other small people.

Edited June 2, 2022 by kraze

[kraze]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

This war has made Bakyar a player in the global arms market, they seem more than smart enough to keep climbing that ladder.

Of course, this whole war is one giant grim advertisement for Baykar's product. Giving away one Bayraktar for free nets them such street cred - that they are going to be having even more clients now.

And I'm really happy with this business model.