How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't want us to turn this thread into a WikiLeaks/Assange distraction, so let's just leave it alone and wait (patiently) for the US courts to get their chance to present their case against him.  As of 2 weeks ago the US formally requested extradition now that the British courts are satisfied he won't be mistreated once he arrives in the US.

 

Steve

yeah the wikileaks was just part of the excerpt.  What I found more interesting is the info leak back then being the MVD even if it was a hack.

[Battlefront.com]

I loved this bit from yesterday (June 1st) ISW update.  The wording is exquisite:

Quote

Russian milbloggers are expressing growing alarm about the threat of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the areas Russian forces have deprioritized while concentrating on Severodonetsk.

I was reading yet more Western "Chicken Little" reporting yesterday about Russia's gains.  While they noted Ukraine's counter attacks, they once again talked about Russia reinforcing and reconstituting forces in Izyum, Popasna, and Severodonetsk without any discussion of where those reinforcements/replacements were coming from.  Not thin air and only partially from "recruitment" efforts.  Nope, since Russia has robbed pretty much all the Russian based units of personnel, it's been sapping strength from forces already in Ukraine.  At the very least it means it doesn't have replacements to invest in other places.  Or as ISW puts it... areas Russia has "deprioritized".

I've already run the numbers for Russia's probable frontline troop density several times now.  It's not pretty, and every time Russia botches another attack or Ukraine launches a counter attack, it becomes uglier from Russia's perspective.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

yeah the wikileaks was just part of the excerpt.  What I found more interesting is the info leak back then being the MVD even if it was a hack.

There were a few pretty high profile hacks at the time.  I don't remember if it was part of that MVD hack or another one that showed the detention records for all the Russians that came back to Russia complete with their weaponry.  The reports were quite detailed and IIRC there was some sort of letter that warned higher ups that the large number of returning fighters could pose a security risk if not properly dealt with.

Steve

[Huba]

Here's a quite comprehensive article about Russia's naval blockade and food crisis stemming from it. Author argues that the only viable solution at hand is international naval mission to create a safe corridor to Odessa. Given that:

- we are on the clock, Ukraine's grain silos has to be empty to store next crop in August/September

- alternative ways to export the grain won't have the sufficient capacity in foreseeable future

- Ukrainians won't be able to lift the blockade by themselves

- and finally, expecting Russia to just act decent or listen to pledges by UN is a folly,

there really isn't any other way than some kind of limited intervention. Here's the article:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/russias-war-on-global-food-security/

Edited June 2, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, JonS said:

Yeah, nah. He shouldn't be *doing* "stuff like that."

Is it understandable? Yes.

Is it illegal? Also yes.

Does the first negate the second? No.

I'm not sure whether it's really "understandable". For a Ukrainian fighting for the survival of his country and his family, yes maybe. For an American who decides to travel around the world and fight in a foreign war, not so much.

I'm reminded of that scene in the movie The Thin Red Line where you hear the thoughts going through the heads of various soldiers during a firefight. One is horrified that he might have to hurt someone, another thinks how awesome it is that he can kill people without getting in trouble for it.

[LongLeftFlank]

14 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Very good series of posts on the subject of desensitization. I have to admit I often avoid watching the videos...each to their own, though. One odd inconsistency I've noticed is why it tends to make me uncomfortable when I'm fairly used to watching World War II footage in documentaries...somehow the length of elapsed time and the known outcome of the conflict seem to buffer the emotional impact on some level.

Agreed, although there is one horrible full colour sequence I won't link from Saipan 1944 ("Hell in the Pacific" series), where a Japanese hetai emerges on fire from his bunker and runs around for a bit before lying down in a ditch to expire. The poor guy's body language expresses less agony than embarassment, as if he had been caught outside naked.

And then there's this non-explicit but nonetheless poignant sequence of a US tanker on Okinawa, a young skinny kid, likely sole survivor of his crew. His body language alone tells the tale.

....These are the kinds of stories a good friend of mine at USVA hears on a daily basis from veterans ever since they began offering extra PTSD benefits.

The stories invariably begin, "I always thought I'd take this story with me to the grave with me, because who the hell would want to hear it, except my wife who wonders why I wake up screaming at night."

We are all human.

[LongLeftFlank]

17 hours ago, danfrodo said:

BlackMoria, that is the most amazing AAR screen I have ever seen in my life.  Wow.  Tells me I can do better.

LOL.

@BlackMoria is also the playtester who demolished -- no really, chewed and effing spit out! -- my CMSF1 Ramadi JOKER 3 urban hellscape (back a decade ago), taking only a single casualty! 

IIRC, he end ran the QRF column around the (obvious) insurgent kill zone, linked up the forces (replenishing ammo, which is key) and then brutally straight punched into the heart of the ghetto to relieve the cut off Marines.  Freeking legend! (I had to make quite some design tweaks to the scenario after that, I can tell you)

Canucks by and large are a peaceable people, but we do have hidden talents for war when put to it.  My uncles in the South Scotias and Seaforths told quite some stories  #TommySS

Edited June 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Elmar Bijlsma]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

even Russian dogs are joining the UK army though I think this does counter the rumor of Russians eating dogs.

Special forces dog abandoned by Russians joins Ukrainian forces (msn.com)

I've seen Jojo Rabbit (everyone should have) and I believe Yorkie. They aren't eating them.

[rocketman]

Sweden will support Ukraine with anti-sea missile Robot 17 (design based on US Hellfire) in unknown quantity, 5000 AT4 and automatic rifles.

[LongLeftFlank]

9 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

"When they come across us... first of all we don't take prisoners. You come across my squad, it's a death sentence for you"

Just casually admitting to war crimes I guess? Or maybe implying that they engage to kill without ever intending to give the guy a chance to put his arms in the air. Somehow I get the feeling there were plenty of guys that tried.

Tiktok war whores and pronstars can all f**k off as far as I'm concerned. I don't care what side he's on.

And I wouldn't click a YouTube link that looks like that if you told me it was the second coming of Moses.

 

IMHO....

[Harmon Rabb]

Very noble response from Baykar. Also great PR.

[sross112]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I loved this bit from yesterday (June 1st) ISW update.  The wording is exquisite:

I was reading yet more Western "Chicken Little" reporting yesterday about Russia's gains.  While they noted Ukraine's counter attacks, they once again talked about Russia reinforcing and reconstituting forces in Izyum, Popasna, and Severodonetsk without any discussion of where those reinforcements/replacements were coming from.  Not thin air and only partially from "recruitment" efforts. 

How does the first round of conscription fit into having available bodies for the reconstitution of units? I understand it is supposed to be illegal to send them but it doesn't seem like the Kremlin has played by that rule very tight. Or have they been able to get any significant number of them to sign contracts? Haven't heard much about the spring call up for awhile here. Certainly not enough to totally replace their losses but maybe enough to fill out several units.

[Huba]

Quite a touching gesture:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Lyman sector, river NE of Sloviansk:

1.  I like OsA's maps except for the Red Arrows of Dooom, but as Steve noted he tends to overcred RU side sources. So I personally call BS on this. The Russians have no capability at all to force the river in the Lyman area. If they try, they will simply get more elite troops killed to no purpose.

2.  I believe I mentioned Monte Cassino before. The Russians have only just reached the far side of that hill. They can and will level this beautiful monastery to the ground (slow clap for Third Rome) but that won't take the ground, so long as it is defended by men who know it. Yet again, the Ukrainians are choosing the battlegrounds. All Ivan can do is bleed.

A little clearer view here

It's taken them all of May to clear those wooded zones and Lyman town. And they've mainly pulled the forces that got them there.

Edited June 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[OldSarge]

Switzerland slams the brakes on Denmark’s shipment of military vehicles to Ukraine

Switzerland has vetoed Denmark’s request to deliver Swiss-made military vehicles to Ukraine, referring to its neutrality policy of not supplying arms to conflict areas.

According to OLFI, the Danish media focused on defence and security policy, the decision to send about 20 Piranha three-crew cars to Ukraine was made as far back as April.

However, these armoured personnel carriers were produced in Switzerland, which has a policy that foreign countries seek permission before re-exporting Swiss-made arms.

https://cphpost.dk/?p=134328

It looks like the Swiss are having an internal discussion of their long-standing policy of neutrality.

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Lyman sector, river NE of Sloviansk:

1.  I like OsA's maps except for the Red Arrows of Dooom, but as Steve noted he tends to overcred RU side sources. So I personally call BS on this. The Russians have no capability at all to force the river in the Lyman area. If they try, they will simply get more elite troops killed to no purpose.

2.  I believe I mentioned Monte Cassino before. The Russians have only just reached the far side of that hill. They can and will level this beautiful monastery to the ground (slow clap for Third Rome) but that won't take the ground, so long as it is defended by men who know it. Yet again, the Ukrainians are choosing the battlegrounds.

A little clearer view here

 

From what I gather, russians are still working on clearing the forests south-west of Lyman of Ukrainian rearguards, and not showing much progress on that. Same for the areas north of the Sviatohirsk monastery. It took them a month to dislodge Ukrainians around Oskil dam, and that's just a few kilometers from Izyum itself.

I'd think that for army that is really short of infantry, clearing swampy forests is an endeavour equally hard, if not harder than urban combat.

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, sross112 said:

How does the first round of conscription fit into having available bodies for the reconstitution of units? I understand it is supposed to be illegal to send them but it doesn't seem like the Kremlin has played by that rule very tight. Or have they been able to get any significant number of them to sign contracts? Haven't heard much about the spring call up for awhile here.

The conscripts, in this case, are not Russian citizens.  They are Ukrainians in territories occupied by Russia.  In particular Luhansk and Donetsk.  These guys have been rounded up and sent to the front without any training.  The LPR and DPR units are doing a lot of the fighting in the Donbas right and therefore these reinforcements, no matter how crap quality they might be, are still bodies going into the fight.

Russia is also doing a lot of tricks with contracts.  They are pressuring/threatening, and perhaps at times forcing/forging, Russian conscripts to sign contracts.  Once they've signed, they are on the hook.  They are doing the same thing with contractors whose terms are expiring.

The other tricks they are doing  is siphoning off individuals from far flung Russian based units.  They have to sign a waiver to fight in Ukraine, apparently, and so the same trickery is being used with them as well.  They've been doing this one for awhile now, probably focused on specific needs like junior officers, engineers, etc.

And of course they have been stripping units from parts of the front that they are "deemphasizing".  Which is the point that ISW was mostly focused on in that quote I posted.

30 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Certainly not enough to totally replace their losses but maybe enough to fill out several units.

Correct.  But that's the level of desperation Russia is at right now.  They first drained their military capabilities at home and in frozen conflict zones, then they reduced the scope of the war to free up (shattered) units, and they've starved areas of lesser importance of replacements, mobile reserves, and even frontline strength.  All of this is extremely short term thinking, but other than ending the war or mobilizing that's really all they can do.

This is why I've been saying for months that the fruitless assaults in otherwise stable sectors of the front were asinine.  All those attacks did was drain away the ability to defend without reinforcements which are desperately needed for the primary areas of interest.  Ukraine punching back at weakened sectors of front was inevitable.

Steve

[keas66]

8 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Switzerland slams the brakes on Denmark’s shipment of military vehicles to Ukraine

Switzerland has vetoed Denmark’s request to deliver Swiss-made military vehicles to Ukraine, referring to its neutrality policy of not supplying arms to conflict areas.

According to OLFI, the Danish media focused on defence and security policy, the decision to send about 20 Piranha three-crew cars to Ukraine was made as far back as April.

However, these armoured personnel carriers were produced in Switzerland, which has a policy that foreign countries seek permission before re-exporting Swiss-made arms.

https://cphpost.dk/?p=134328

It looks like the Swiss are having an internal discussion of their long-standing policy of neutrality.

I mean seriously - Just ignore them - what are they going to do ? Not sell anyone  any more military hardware  ?    Close down the local Rolex/Omega  dealerships ?   Not take your ill gotten billions into their  secretive banking systems ?  Switzerland's loss  - Buy your gear from elsewhere .

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'd think that for army that is really short of infantry, clearing swampy forests is an endeavour equally hard, if not harder than urban combat.

Yup.

The defense of the eastern side of the river by Ukrainian forces will go on only as long as Ukraine wants or is able to keep fighting.  I expect they'll withdraw forces over the river in a particular area as soon as they feel they can't cause disproportional harm.  The terrain itself is largely useless for both sides, but if Russia wants to lose hundred of men taking it... let them.

Steve

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.

The defense of the eastern side of the river by Ukrainian forces will go on only as long as Ukraine wants or is able to keep fighting.  I expect they'll withdraw forces over the river in a particular area as soon as they feel they can't cause disproportional harm.  The terrain itself is largely useless for both sides, but if Russia wants to lose hundred of men taking it... let them.

Steve

I imagine that keeping the LOC  Izyum > Lyman > Kreminna > rest of Donbas open will be really resource consuming even if we disregard the UA artillery interdiction completely. And that in turn means that capturing Lyman really didn't change the situation much, except from maybe preventing major UA counterattacks in the area.

[LongLeftFlank]

Stand up now, Kuban and Novgorod and Belgorod and Voronezh-Volga Republics!

And in time there could yet be a place for a prosperous Muscovy Republic as well!

Russian lurkers, could this post-imperial condition honestly be any worse than the place your Tsar has put you in right now? Consider that Thais and Vietnamese today live better than you do now, under Western capitalist 'exploitation'. Without a fraction of your mineral wealth and human capital (although that is growing, fast!)

...Yet you have parliamentarians on talk shows frothing about nuclear war!  Do you think the Chinese will back you in that? What nonsense!  Xi and Modi will make common cause with the West long enough to put you down like mad dogs.

End this, now.  It's horrible, it serves no purpose.

Edited June 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank
Galeev

[Harmon Rabb]

What a clown.

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

What a clown.

that really isn't fair to clowns.  

[sburke]

Russia Goes After British MP’s Son for Killing of Chechen Commander in Ukraine (msn.com)

[kraze]

29 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Stand up now, Kuban and Novgorod and Belgorod and Voronezh-Volga Republics!

And in time there could yet be a place for a prosperous Muscovy Republic as well!

 

Russian lurkers, could this post-imperial condition honestly be any worse than the place your Tsar has put you in right now? Consider that Thais and Vietnamese today live better than you do now, under Western capitalist 'exploitation'. Without a fraction of your mineral wealth and human capital (although that is growing, fast!)

...Yet you have parliamentarians on talk shows frothing about nuclear war!  Do you think the Chinese will back you in that? What nonsense!  Xi and Modi will make common cause with the West long enough to put you down like mad dogs.

End this, now.  It's horrible, it serves no purpose.

"In Russia, more and more people are against the war. " - what happened? They started losing it?