How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Machor]

Some of these Ukrainian CAESAR pics had been posted before but I don't remember others, so I decided to post all here for @Taranis 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Good post. Your last bit on Ukraine being cautious in its attacks is the key open question.

[Huba]

36 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Whether Ukraine has the ability to or the willingness to seek out mechanized deep breakthroughs, I have no clue. While the offensive in Kharkiv region was successful, I don't think it was necessarily a example of a breakthrough. Also, Ukraine seems in a way, quite keen to preserve their manpower, instead of risky maneuvers, Ukraine seems fine with slower advances, whether this is intended or a result of their situation, i dunno. 

I agree on Kharkiv, better example too look to might be the ongoing Kherson counterattack, that apparently already took about the same amount of ground as Russians did around Popasna - still this is probably just a shaping operation, but seems to have a lot of potential. 

On that subject, a well known but suspicious Twitter profile of Canadian Volunteer just reported that Ukrainians took Shihurivka - town on west bank of Inghulets and a crucial road junction on direct road to Mikolayiv. 
https://maps.app.goo.gl/3TRshJtJivyVYeuj6

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Roman Khlynovsky, engineering officer (probably) in the 64th Guards Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (at least as of 2017):

 

[akd]

Detail on ISW's assessment of the Kherson front:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine training using a British made Wolfhound.

 

A video showing the friendship between Poland and Ukraine through the power of great music.

Edited May 30, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Kinophile]

Its really incredible what a common a$$hat enemy will do. My wifes Polish, her mum's Ukrainian from Lviv (now living in Przemysl) and ive heard very heavy stories of the border fighting during and after WW2.

Babca's dad saw, suffered and endured through things that were full-on Bucha-level atrocities - first the Ukrainians inflicting it on his Polish neighbors, then vice Versa. In the town over it was the other way, Polish attacking first. No good/bad side, just a horrible situation egged on and exacerbated by Russian meddling and influence ops.

When I met the wife's family in Poland, the dismissive and distrustful attitude to Ukrainians was extremely strong, esp in the older generations (naturally). Babca was clear the feeling was mutual (she herself is very even minded about the whole thing).

For Babca, this war's unification of the Polish and Ukrainian peoples is Putin's greatest failure. Reinvigorating NATO is just vomit-icing on the sh!t-sandwich cake that Herr Komrad Putler gets to gnaw on, like an incontinent beaver.

Poland will never be conquered ever again, and sure as **** not by the Ivan.

As long as Poland exists so will Ukraine - and vice versa.

Edited May 30, 2022 by Kinophile

[Vanir Ausf B]

T-72Bs and T-80BVs pulled from storage to join the earlier mentioned T-62s.

 

[FancyCat]

I completely forgot about airpower.  Can mechanized offensives can occur when airspace is contested? I don't think that Ukraine can or wants to do any mechanized offensives and certainly not deep penetrations without air control. While Russia can't control the airspace, they can contest it, if these rumors about Russian airstrikes halting Ukrainian advances in Kherson are true, it would certainly be in line with the ability of the Ukrainian air force to contest and hurt Russian columns on the offensive as well while airspace is contested.

If Ukraine is about to be supplied with F-16s, and is actively training pilots right now, I would absolutely defer big actions until they finish and come online for use. Whether thats true, well we will see when the later half of summer comes around. 

[akd]

Interesting interview with a battalion commander in the 95th Air-Assault Brigade:

Also notes from an interview with the 28th Mech Brigade commander:

 

[Kinophile]

37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Can mechanized offensives can occur when airspace is contested?

Absolutely - it just comes down to how much can you suffer to lose? 

France '40 was contested air, Yom Kippur and 6-Day war were contested air. 

The difference nowadays, I'd wager, is that the attrition and lethality have increased, but yeah - If Ukraine want run a MechInf assault towards the Azov coast they need to do a simple, brutal thing- pad the human margin they're willing to lose to achieve operational success and do the assault math.

37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

If Ukraine is about to be supplied with F-16s

This is currently pure hopeful, RUMINT right now.

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

21 minutes ago, akd said:

Interesting interview with a battalion commander in the 95th Air-Assault Brigade:

Also notes from an interview with the 28th Mech Brigade commander:

 

"If earlier their tanks were equipped with thermal imagers, in relatively good condition, now the equipment we seize from the enemy needs to be repaired so that combat operations can be carried out on it."

The combined effects of battlefield attrition and endemic institutional corruption.

 

[akd]

Some interesting (if perhaps overoptimistic) analysis of the potential of US MLRS provision to Ukraine (thread contains a link to an earlier important thread):

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by akd

[SeinfeldRules]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

Some interesting (if perhaps overoptimistic) analysis of the potential of US MLRS provision to Ukraine (thread contains a link to an earlier important thread):

 

I am always skeptical of people claiming certain equipment or contributions will be war changing, I've heard that since February 24th and yet to see any of it pan out. There's also a lot of best-case-scenario type situations being bandied about with MLRS, and it may be strictly factual but often doesn't take into account reality. I think HIMARS or the M270 will be a good asset for Ukraine and give them a useful capability, but I doubt it will be war changing and there is still a lot that is contingent on what they actually will receive, and how much. 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

I am always skeptical of people claiming certain equipment or contributions will be war changing

I agree.  The recent Russian gushing over the "terminators" is a prime example on the Russian side, but on the Ukrainian side there seems to be this sort of thing about every system earmarked for Ukraine.

The reality is it's the totality of the effort that is important.  The massive quantity of AT weapons has greatly contributed to the victories so far, but no single one of them was responsible.  Same thing with the MANPADS.  Russian air activities have been seriously curtailed, but not because of any one type of MANPAD.  Beefing up Ukrainian artillery systems is likely to be in the same category.

Steve

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

I am always skeptical of people claiming certain equipment or contributions will be war changing, I've heard that since February 24th and yet to see any of it pan out. There's also a lot of best-case-scenario type situations being bandied about with MLRS, and it may be strictly factual but often doesn't take into account reality. I think HIMARS or the M270 will be a good asset for Ukraine and give them a useful capability, but I doubt it will be war changing and there is still a lot that is contingent on what they actually will receive, and how much. 

I think there is a far amount of evidence from Ukraine that this isn't true. NATO ATGMs are why the initial bums rush got stopped. The Ukrainians had to do a lot of other stuff right, and be suicidally brave. It didn't hurt that the Russians are idiots. But is was ATGMs that just made the Russians STOP. The entire Russian plan was to NOT stop. Once they stopped Ukrainian artillery could get serious about killing them, their supply lines could be attacked and so on, and the war evolved from there. FWIW I think NLAWS were probably more important in the battle for Kyiv than Javelins. Both missiles seem too handily kill anything the Russians have, but with mostly short sight lines north of Kyiv the NLAW's much shorter time to fire trumped all the Javelin's other advantages.

The MLRS will meaningfully increase the Russians attrition rate, it will apply at least some pressure further behind the Russian lines than anything else the Russians have had to deal with on a regular basis. If we assume the fight is relatively balanced currently, that is a lot.

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Clearly there are no units to spare, therefore it is reasonable to conclude that Russia has finally hit a critical point in this operation where Russia has to be very concerned about systemic collapse simply because it has insufficient forces to man the front it already has.

And it gets worse...

I hope you're right, Steve.  For the sake of Ukraine, first and foremost.

But also for the sake of the Russian and Siberian and Caucasian kids whose lives are being thrown away so wantonly by an evil elite that views them as cattle.

History, of course, suggests things could drag on, against all sense and reason, for much longer than we think....

Even Comrade Lenin underestimated both the anguish of that 900 mile long front, and our cursed capacity for suffering. 

... But of course this is not the old Russia, with infinite numbers of hardy peasant boys to fling into the firing line.

Also, the Ukrainians are every bit as hardy, and fighting much smarter.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I hope you're right, Steve.  For the sake of Ukraine, first and foremost.

But also for the sake of the Russian and Siberian and Caucasian kids whose lives are being thrown away so wantonly by an evil elite that views them as cattle.

History, of course, suggests things could drag on, against all sense and reason, for much longer than we think....

Even Comrade Lenin underestimated both the anguish of that 900 mile long front, and our cursed capacity for suffering. 

... But of course this is not the old Russia, with infinite numbers of hardy peasant boys to fling into the firing line.

Also, the Ukrainians are every bit as hardy, and fighting much smarter.

It is worth at least throwing out that in 1917 the Russian army's capacity for suffering was not infinite. In fact they folded up pretty completely when they decided the Tsar was an idiot and was going to get them all killed. And the Tsar had far more legitimacy than Putin can ever dream of. Though I don't doubt Putin has thought about having himself crowned as the first Czar of a new dynasty daily for fifteen years. We are perhaps quite lucky he doesn't have a competent, well educated son around the age of forty. 

[FancyCat]

If this is true, then those reports that the T-62s were merely for reserve units to replace more modern units for the front are false somewhat.

 

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

For Babca, this war's unification of the Polish and Ukrainian peoples is Putin's greatest failure. Reinvigorating NATO is just vomit-icing on the sh!t-sandwich cake that Herr Komrad Putler gets to gnaw on, like an incontinent beaver.

[G.I. Joe]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

We'll learn about it only when/if the planes will already be in Ukraine. F-16/ A-10 combo seems the most likely, there was also some gossip about UK Tranche 1 Eurofighters. This is the one thing that Eastern Europe cannot help that much with, altough we paved the way delivering "MiG-29 parts" and Su25s. 

Meanwhile, Canada shops for artillery ammo:

 

Definitely...OPSEC and concerns about escalation would ensure that anything of the sort would (and should) be kept very quiet until it's a done deal. The Su-25 and MiG-29 deliveries are definitely important both for setting a precedent for supplying combat aircraft and for providing something Ukraine can use now. The latter being the key part at this point.

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

This is currently pure hopeful, RUMINT right now.

 

Indeed. I would say not even RUMINT so much as pure speculation. Apologies for any unintended confusion...

However, that being said, I think there is definitely a nonzero probability that something along those lines may be going on. The well will run dry for replacement MiG-29 and Su-25 airframes very soon (if not already for the Su-25) and there might not be a workable source for additional Su-24s or Su-27s. Switching to NATO aircraft is not going to be a quick process, but that's all the more reason to start that process as soon as practicable.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree.  The recent Russian gushing over the "terminators" is a prime example on the Russian side, but on the Ukrainian side there seems to be this sort of thing about every system earmarked for Ukraine.

The reality is it's the totality of the effort that is important.  The massive quantity of AT weapons has greatly contributed to the victories so far, but no single one of them was responsible.  Same thing with the MANPADS.  Russian air activities have been seriously curtailed, but not because of any one type of MANPAD.  Beefing up Ukrainian artillery systems is likely to be in the same category.

Steve

Definitely. And I think the key issue with breaking the Ukrainian Air Force's dependency on Soviet hardware is at least as much a matter of long-term sustainment and better potential for building numerical strength as it is about the potential qualitative edge.

Edited May 30, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

If this is true, then those reports that the T-62s were merely for reserve units to replace more modern units for the front are false somewhat.

 

I am preaching to the choir here but.... Two things about Kherson I keep thinking about, The newly stood up brigade equipped with Polish tanks is reported to be on the Kherson front, and the enormous losses in senior officers that the Russians have suffered in that area. If I understand it correctly the Senior Russian commander Kherson has been killed twice, and at least one of those strikes also took out a huge number of whole command structure. There just can't be a lot of unit cohesion left. Throw in Steves insights about the Russians stripping support from everywhere for the push in the LPR salient, and a lot of dominoes are lined up in a row.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Definitely. And I think the key issue with breaking the Ukrainian Air Force's dependency on Soviet hardware is at least as much a matter of long-term sustainment and better potential for building numerical strength as it is about the potential qualitative edge

HIMARS is much the same situation actually. I am quite sure that if there was a massive stockpile of the Soviet legacy MLRS systems available anywhere on the planet, we would ship the Ukrainians those first. But that appears to just not be the case. So it isn't just that HIMARS/M270 is better, it is that or nothing as the Ukrainians run through the last of their legacy stocks.

[Machor]

54 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But also for the sake of the Russian and Siberian and Caucasian kids whose lives are being thrown away so wantonly by an evil elite that views them as cattle.

Truth.

[Steve, can we please have more likes? The previous balancing you had for the forum is clearly not adequate for what we have with the war in Ukraine.]

45 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't doubt Putin has thought about having himself crowned as the first Czar of a new dynasty daily for fifteen years. We are perhaps quite lucky he doesn't have a competent, well educated son around the age of forty.

Guess who checks that box. 

[It's Erdoğan and his son-in-law, Bayraktar - Yes, THAT Bayraktar.]

[G.I. Joe]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

HIMARS is much the same situation actually. I am quite sure that if there was a massive stockpile of the Soviet legacy MLRS systems available anywhere on the planet, we would ship the Ukrainians those first. But that appears to just not be the case. So it isn't just that HIMARS/M270 is better, it is that or nothing as the Ukrainians run through the last of their legacy stocks.

Or for that matter conventional artillery. Look at that piece Huba linked last page about Canada looking into buying 100,000 rounds of 155mm from South Korea to supply to Ukraine. There's already been a fair bit of discussion here about the importance of transitioning to pieces that fire NATO standard ammunition instead of Soviet 152mm, that looks like a prime example of the practical benefits.

And that is one key point going for the F-16 - everyone and their cat has Vipers and often fairly large numbers of them (says a guy from a country that chose F-18s instead), so there are plenty of sources and there's plenty of room for plausible deniability about the source. There is also a big enough pool of pilots qualified in type who've already retired that Ukraine could recruit volunteer pilots who have been retired long enough from enough different air forces that they wouldn't look like a "Flying Tigers" type unit that could be construed as direct intervention by any particular country.