How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

If that was the case they would not be launching assaults on multiple directions around Severodonetsk and driving north from Popasnaya. They lack manpower but it isn’t that bad yet to where they only have one unit capable of offense

the important thing, obviously, is for RU to be smart enough to split their dwindling offensive forces over multiple offensive axes so that none are strong enough to actually achieve anything.  It's the last thing a smart enemy would expect! 

[BlackMoria]

It looks like decision paralysis is setting into the Russian command.   They commit to something and then it appears like a short time later they change their mind.  It the only thing I can think of that explains the units going one direction and then another, like some toy truck that a set of wheels fell off. 

[Suleyman]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

the important thing, obviously, is for RU to be smart enough to split their dwindling offensive forces over multiple offensive axes so that none are strong enough to actually achieve anything.  It's the last thing a smart enemy would expect! 

I think in their minds, they have one major focus but they split the attacks in support of one another to form “cauldrons” they call it. Even if it’s small, they like to encircle the enemy (I think most militaries prefer this style of offense) they have the support of artillery and aviation so their minor success in Donbas’ isn’t a shocker, they’re not gonna win the war but since they call it a special military operation I got a feeling they just want a victory in Donbas’ before they call it quits.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, MSBoxer said:

Just to be clear, I appreciate your analysis of the bridges.  I also appreciate the opportunity to point out that you continue after you said you were done with it a few hundred pages ago.  All in fun buddy.

Heh.  Well, I don't recall saying I'd never talk about the bridges again.  I think I said that I was done researching them.  Though new stuff does keep popping up   Aside from the fascinating events themselves (in one case Ukrainians ambushed the bridge builders with tanks!), this was no mere sideshow.  Therefore, still more to talk about because it directly affects the battles that are still going on now..

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Does this imply the Russians are down to one functional infantry assault force? They are bouncing it around Luhansk praying to get a breakthrough before they burn them out?

Not just one, but one of the few.  These guys could be from the 11th Guard Air Assault Brigade.  They have the "O" marks and I'm pretty sure they were deployed east of Kyiv.  Though could be wrong about that.

I can't remember if 106th fought to the east or west of Kyiv in the early days.  They had been in Izyum but withdrawn a few weeks ago.

Steve

[sburke]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not just one, but one of the few.  These guys could be from the 11th Guard Air Assault Brigade.  They have the "O" marks and I'm pretty sure they were deployed east of Kyiv.  Though could be wrong about that.

I can't remember if 106th fought to the east or west of Kyiv in the early days.  They had been in Izyum but withdrawn a few weeks ago.

Steve

so they've been beat up and "reconstituted" twice now?  Good lord.

[Vic4]

Some absolute beauts from ISW today. …In some ways it shows that the pen truly can be akin to the sword; shredding/damning/searing, is their assessment of Russia. ...Some personal favs:

The opener: “Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a resort city, depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place.”

Mid: “The Kremlin may hope to offset the loss of revenues from Azovstal and other destroyed infrastructure in Ukraine by profiting from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant that is forces have seized... Khusnullin added that the Zaporihia Nuclear Power Plant will exclusively work for Russia and will sell electricity to Ukraine."

Finale: “This statement is a clear Russian recognition that there will be an independent Ukraine at the end of this war…”

The rest: "This announcement epitomizes the kind of Pyrrhic victories Russian forces have won in Ukraine, to the extent that they have won victories at all."

Love this thread - Glory to Ukraine$

Edited May 19, 2022 by Vic4
quote

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, sross112 said:

For the EU experts: Why has France been so quiet or have I just missed it? I thought that predictions were that after the election was over we would hear a lot more support for Ukraine out of them?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-tells-zelenskiy-french-arms-deliveries-ukraine-will-intensify-2022-05-17/

Macron has promised more aid to Ukraine is inbound. I still think France's military industrial complex is lapping at Macron (I doubt he needs much convincing) to let them supply Ukraine and hook them to French armaments. It would very shortsighted for France to neglect Ukraine in favor of Russia relations in my opinion.

[kraze]

Dunno about France, but Scholz certainly ground any military support to us to a halt. We got nothing of what was promised. No Gepards, no Pzh2000. Even though we were going to pay for it.

[sburke]

Russia Embeds Spies in Military Units to Identify Rebellion, Report Says (msn.com)

 

Ukraine’s Guns Are In Range Of Izium. That’s Bad News For Russia. (msn.com)

Edited May 19, 2022 by sburke

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Dunno about France, but Scholz certainly ground any military support to us to a halt. We got nothing of what was promised. No Gepards, no Pzh2000. Even though we were going to pay for it.

And they still refuse to allow Rheinmetall to deliver Marders and Leo1A5. It is nothing but a disgrace.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

And they still refuse to allow Rheinmetall to deliver Marders and Leo1A5. It is nothing but a disgrace.

As I said some pages ago, unfortunately the whole situation depends on USA completely - from UE, those who are helping are too weak, and those who aren't weak are not helping.

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

As I said some pages ago, unfortunately the whole situation depends on USA completely - from UE, those who are helping are too weak, and those who aren't weak are not helping.

I think you underestimate the value of the smaller, "weaker", countries that are helping, especially including yours.  Russia's immediate neighbors may not have the economic strength or as much materiel to offer, but they're all helping enormously to keep Russia isolated and with enough implicit border threat (whether real or imagined) that it can't just pull absolutely every last man, vehicle, and airplane and put them in Ukraine.  Not to mention the ability to provide safe staging and training areas for incoming equipment.

[TheVulture]

Some good sense from the Advisor to the Office of President of Ukraine:

 

 

[Huba]

Here's an article from Politico about US's hesitancy for providing Ukraine with MLRS. The quoted sources claim the already known "it will be perceived as escalation" argument, which can really be applied to any weapon system Ukraine needs. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/18/biden-resists-ukrainian-demands-long-range-rocket-launchers-00033473

Still, thanks in large part to Rand Paul's obstruction, the perception I think is growing that military support for Ukraine is losing it's momentum a bit. Senate's vote was postponed for today, I really hope that it will be immediately followed by announcing a new arms package, and one that does not care about Russia's sensibilities.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Huba

[Ts4EVER]

Maybe the fear is that the MLRS would be perceived similar to cluster munitions in the public.

[SteelRain]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

Dunno about France, but Scholz certainly ground any military support to us to a halt. We got nothing of what was promised. No Gepards, no Pzh2000. Even though we were going to pay for it.

Training of the Crews for the PzH 2000 should have started at the 9th May at the Artillerieschule Idar Oberstein in Germany but other than that i fear the "Zeitenwende" was warm words only.
So far Germany only gave old stuff, remember the Strela 2. They were decommissioned in 2011 or 2012 and should have been scraped by now.

And reading BS like the following lets you think that Germany is only interested to supply stuff if the industry benefits and Germany doesn't have to pay much.

The Czech Republic will receive 15 Leopard 2A4 tanks donated by Germany as it supplies its own Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in February, the Defence Ministry said on Wednesday.
The Czechs will also start talks with Germany on acquiring up to another 50 more-modern Leopard 2A7+ tanks in coming years.
The donated tanks could arrive this year.

https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/05/ringtausch-fuer-die-ukraine-tschechien-erhaelt-aeltere-deutsche-leopard-kampfpanzer/

 

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by SteelRain

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

Dunno about France, but Scholz certainly ground any military support to us to a halt. We got nothing of what was promised. No Gepards, no Pzh2000. Even though we were going to pay for it.

I am really no fan of our chancellor. I'm in favour of helping Ukraine and I don't see much of a difference between sending Panzerfausts vs tank. Still, it would be legitimate to say no, we want to stay out of this conflict (you may like it or not but that would be our decision to make). Scholz doesn't have the balls to really do one or the other.

However: Scholz is also in a bad spot here. Public support seems to be decreasing and, frankly, Ukraine can thank their leaders at least it part for that. The rather constant demanding, berating and even insulting of German politicians that came from Selenskyj, your foreign minister and especially your embessador didn't help at all. At least not after the first one or two weeks. Prices here are climbing in a way that it gets hard for the poorer part of society and along, the threat of nuclear war hanging in the air and along come your leaders and say, no we don't want to see your head of state, we want to see the chancellor, so we can give him our wishlist (had you had tried that with the Queen, it would have been bye bye NLAWs) and f*** you, if we don't get it. (Out don't say it was really like that but that is the it is perceived here, at least by some). I think, as a general rule of thumb, if you want something from someone you are nice and say please - especially in Germany. You may not like it and I'd agree, it shouldn't be necessary and it's one of our less sympathetic traits - and maybe I'd be too proud for that, too. Still, embessadors, for instance, should be professionals and able to read the psychology of a people.

Not sure if things were different without those incidents, maybe not, but that's certainly additional ammunition for Scholz to be able to not fully commit to delivering weapons.

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I am really no fan of our chancellor. I'm in favour of helping Ukraine and I don't see much of a difference between sending Panzerfausts vs tank. Still, it would be legitimate to say no, we want to stay out of this conflict (you may like it or not but that would be our decision to make). Scholz doesn't have the balls to really do one or the other.

However: Scholz is also in a bad spot here. Public support seems to be decreasing and, frankly, Ukraine can thank their leaders at least it part for that. The rather constant demanding, berating and even insulting of German politicians that came from Selenskyj, your foreign minister and especially your embessador didn't help at all. At least not after the first one or two weeks. Prices here are climbing in a way that it gets hard for the poorer part of society and along, the threat of nuclear war hanging in the air and along come your leaders and say, no we don't want to see your head of state, we want to see the chancellor, so we can give him our wishlist (had you had tried that with the Queen, it would have been bye bye NLAWs) and f*** you, if we don't get it. (Out don't say it was really like that but that is the it is perceived here, at least by some). I think, as a general rule of thumb, if you want something from someone you are nice and say please - especially in Germany. You may not like it and I'd agree, it shouldn't be necessary and it's one of our less sympathetic traits - and maybe I'd be too proud for that, too. Still, embessadors, for instance, should be professionals and able to read the psychology of a people.

Not sure if things were different without those incidents, maybe not, but that's certainly additional ammunition for Scholz to be able to not fully commit to delivering weapons.

See, that's what the problem is with Germany's perceived position. You have every right to declare not doing anything or to squabble internally and in effect also do not do nothing. What Germany is not entitled to though is to demand that it's position is accepted and understood by the others ( including Ukraine). It isn't, it makes Germany look weak, indecisive, for sure not a political leader for anybody east of the Oder. It will be pointed out repeatedly by all interested parties, the price for doing what Germany does is losing face. The same of course goes for France, who also somehow expected to be a political leader of the EU and proves that it can't be expected to assume this role.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

24 minutes ago, Huba said:

What Germany is not entitled to though is to demand that it's position is accepted and understood by the others ( including Ukraine). It isn't, it makes Germany look weak, indecisive, for sure not a political leader for anybody east of the Oder.

Maybe it's just me, but I think it's bit funny that someone from Poland is now blaming Germany for not wanting to be a leader east of the Oder

[Butschi]

25 minutes ago, Huba said:

See, that's what the problem is with Germany's perceived position. You have every right to declare not doing anything or to squabble internally and in effect also do not do nothing. What Germany is not entitled to though is to demand that it's position is accepted and understood by the others ( including Ukraine). It isn't, it makes Germany look weak, indecisive, for sure not a political leader for anybody east of the Oder. It will be pointed out repeatedly by all interested parties, the price for doing what Germany does is losing face. The same of course goes for France, who also somehow expected to be a political leader of the EU and proves that it can't be expected to assume this role.

You are right. Still, that's not the point. The result is what matters: It's like in every other (democratic) country, Scholz gets elected by Germans, not by Poles or Ukrainians.

Also, I hope you see the irony in your statement: a) Your government usually doesn't care about how it is perceived by the rest of the EU as long as it sits well with their voters. b) Usually, the last thing especially the eastern european countries want is strong Germany. Another perception thing: I think Germans are used to be... well, not liked by people who very much like to take our money. So, I guess, losing face is something that for many is not that important, either.

 

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe it's just me, but I think it's bit funny that someone from Poland is now blaming Germany for not wanting to be a leader east of the Oder

Yes, we want Germany to:

a) build an army

b) drive it through Poland to

c) fight Russians. 

I couldn't find the relevant Polandball comic, but you can imagine

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Also, I hope you see the irony in your statement: a) Your government usually doesn't care about how it is perceived by the rest of the EU as long as it sits well with their voters. b) Usually, the last thing especially the eastern european countries want is strong Germany. Another perception thing: I think Germans are used to be... well, not liked by people who very much like to take our money. So, I guess, losing face is something that for many is not that important, either.

Yes I see it, our government is an unfortunate incident ( that even more unfortunately got a second term..) It will change though, probably in next election, and hopefully there will be enough common ground to rebuild the relations then.

Anyway I held Germany to a higher standard, as the one country around which the whole EU more or less is centered. Nobody wants strong Germany in way Russia is strong, but strong as being able to make decisions and act with some vision? That would be great. I'm not doing German-bashing for the sake of it here, it is seriously distressing that the political center of EU looks to be helpless in face of the crisis.

The whole taking your money is another topic altogether as Germany is benefiting from how EU is arranged much more that it is investing in it (as are other countries, it's not a zero sum game). 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

I am really no fan of our chancellor. I'm in favour of helping Ukraine and I don't see much of a difference between sending Panzerfausts vs tank. Still, it would be legitimate to say no, we want to stay out of this conflict (you may like it or not but that would be our decision to make). Scholz doesn't have the balls to really do one or the other.

However: Scholz is also in a bad spot here. Public support seems to be decreasing and, frankly, Ukraine can thank their leaders at least it part for that. The rather constant demanding, berating and even insulting of German politicians that came from Selenskyj, your foreign minister and especially your embessador didn't help at all. At least not after the first one or two weeks. Prices here are climbing in a way that it gets hard for the poorer part of society and along, the threat of nuclear war hanging in the air and along come your leaders and say, no we don't want to see your head of state, we want to see the chancellor, so we can give him our wishlist (had you had tried that with the Queen, it would have been bye bye NLAWs) and f*** you, if we don't get it. (Out don't say it was really like that but that is the it is perceived here, at least by some). I think, as a general rule of thumb, if you want something from someone you are nice and say please - especially in Germany. You may not like it and I'd agree, it shouldn't be necessary and it's one of our less sympathetic traits - and maybe I'd be too proud for that, too. Still, embessadors, for instance, should be professionals and able to read the psychology of a people.

Not sure if things were different without those incidents, maybe not, but that's certainly additional ammunition for Scholz to be able to not fully commit to delivering weapons.

Steinmeier did a lot of bad things to Ukraine, his and Merkel's direct support of Russia and successful attempts to sweep the war under the rug in 2015 with billions poured into a Russian warmachine since - has caused suffering for us for 8 years, resulting in the current warcrime-filled escalation - so naturally he isn't welcome here. Can Zelenskyy be blamed for finally acting like we should've acted towards German political establishment many years ago?

And it's not only us, who suffer. Remember Georgia? Merkel & Co are absolutely horrible human beings and should be treated as such. They wouldn't be held responsible if they didn't basically help Russians kill for all these years with lots and lots of money. Money Ukraine now turns into burned out husks. Wouldn't your poorer people need that money that went into Russian tanks and airplanes that our army is now forced to turn into junk?

Edited May 19, 2022 by kraze

[Butschi]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Steinmeier did a lot of bad things for Ukraine, his and Merkel's direct support of Russia and successful attempts to sweep the war under the rug in 2015 with billions poured into a Russian warmachine since has caused suffering for us for 8 years, resulting in the current warcrime-filled escalation - so naturally he isn't welcome here. Can Zelenskyy be blamed to finally acting like we should've acted towards German political establishment many years ago?

True and I'm well aware of that. Can he be blamed... maybe not, is it wise? Certainly no. The thing is, Steinmeier is not just Steinmeier but the head of the German state, even if only for ceremony. I don't like him either, and I wouldn't want to inflict any of his boring speeches an anyone. Still, that's the way deplomacy works. By insulting the head of state, by extension you insult the whole country and while humanly understandable, it is not something you should be doing in such a situation. As I said, try that with the British Queen...

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

True and I'm well aware of that. Can he be blamed... maybe not, is it wise? Certainly no. The thing is, Steinmeier is not just Steinmeier but the head of the German state, even if only for ceremony. I don't like him either, and I wouldn't want to inflict any of his boring speeches an anyone. Still, that's the way deplomacy works. By insulting the head of state, by extension you insult the whole country and while humanly understandable, it is not something you should be doing in such a situation. As I said, try that with the British Queen...

Equaling a single guy to a country is a bad idea. You know where that leads.

Also British Queen isn't calling the shots. Steinmeier isn't some nobody, he still bears a ton of responsibilities and strings to pull - and he pulls them. Even then the Queen already did a lot of good in the past few months (and never, ever did anything bad to Ukraine), whereas Steinmeier decided to act all insulted, instead of, I dunno, apologizing (which changes nothing but at least would've showed some accountability). Or at least telling it how it is, like Merkel did - "I regret nothing".

Ukraine is past trying to swallow deaths for 8 years and pretending like nothing bad happens. Rape, looting, mass executions and forced deportation to concentration camps deep in Siberia - all while Steinmeier was tight-lipped - happened before he got his well-deserved "insult".

I mean Germany pours money into a country that runs concentration camps in 2022 - what are we even talking about?

Edited May 19, 2022 by kraze