How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Armorgunner]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

damn.  That's no way to treat your goddaughter.

Putin brands his own goddaughter as a ‘foreign agent’ for ‘working with his enemies’ throughout the Ukraine war (msn.com)

I do that all the time! If they beat me in any game we play, at a family reuniun. They are concidered "Foreign agents" 

[Huba]

 

6 minutes ago, womble said:

Currently, I'm optimistic that the Russians have done such a bang-up job of being the baddies (invading their neighbouring sovereign nation by force of arms, atrocities, threats of armageddon and broadening the conflict, atrocities, being lying liars, atrocities, oppressing their own press and people, atrocities on the ground, war crimes, effective nationalisation of international corporation assets and more atrocities) that "Europe" is belatedly remembering what happened last time an autocrat got spicy with their neighbours in Europe and everyone made excuses in order to carry on "business as usual".

The flight from Russian energy is likely permanent, or at least the reliance upon that energy will be gone for good (so, at best, Russia will be competing in a more open market, as the supply issues from other locales will be "solved problems") and everyone will know just how scary it is to be reliant on the goodwill of a homicidal maniac. And, as Steve said, no one is going to be keen on handing said maniac a replacement gun for the one that the heroes of Ukraine have so ably taken off him.

On the other hand, here's an article from Politico suggesting that French/ German/ Italian counterweight is forming against US led block, that aims for ceasefire and returning to "business as usual" ASAP, instead of seeing Ukraine to a proper victory. The goal here would be preserving the existing order to a bigger possible degree, instead of embracing the unknown of defeated and humiliated Russia and (truly) victorious Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leaders-fall-out-of-key-on-ukraine/

Edited May 16, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

On the other hand, here's an article from Politico suggesting that French/ German/ Italian counterweight is forming against US led block, that aims for ceasefire and returning to "business as usual" ASAP, instead of seeing Ukraine to a proper victory. The goal here would be preserving the existing order to a bigger possible degree, instead of embracing the unknown of defeated and humiliated Russia and (truly) victorious Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leaders-fall-out-of-key-on-ukraine/

If France, Germany, and/or Italy had made a major contribution to Ukraine fighting back against Russia, then this would mean something.  But they haven't, so it doesn't.  People have to keep in mind that NATO unanimity is a bonus, not a requirement, for fighting Russia.  The US could ensure Ukraine has what it needs to defeat Russia without any assistance from anybody other than Poland as a base of operations.  And Poland is not going to waffle, so all good there.

As I said above, if Russia had regrouped and prepared for a longer struggle then this sort of alliance fracturing might matter.  Instead, they wore themselves out for no gain and that has reduced their options greatly.

Steve

[Huba]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If France, Germany, and/or Italy had made a major contribution to Ukraine fighting back against Russia, then this would mean something.  But they haven't, so it doesn't.  People have to keep in mind that NATO unanimity is a bonus, not a requirement, for fighting Russia.  The US could ensure Ukraine has what it needs to defeat Russia without any assistance from anybody other than Poland as a base of operations.  And Poland is not going to waffle, so all good there.

As I said above, if Russia had regrouped and prepared for a longer struggle then this sort of alliance fracturing might matter.  Instead, they wore themselves out for no gain and that has reduced their options greatly.

Steve

Agreed, as long as US and Poland retain the unwavering support to the UA cause, the rest of Europe is really (technically) redundant. The only card the "Old Europe" really holds is that they can be real dicks regarding rebuilding Ukraine after the war, and it's EU accession. Still, seeing the rift between Eastern/Northern and Western Europe is really sad, and it put's EU's future under a question mark, albeit small at the moment.

What's more worrisome is that that really leaves the course of events for US to decide, it all again rests on USA's shoulders. Hopefully Biden has enough vision (and health!) to see this whole war through to it's most optimal conclusion, even against wishes of some European partners.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Huba

[DesertFox]

GröFaZ:

Mit dem Angriff Steiners wird das alles in Ordnung kommen.

With Steiner's attack, everything will be all right.

 

 

[Kinophile]

 

[Huba]

News about Azovstal, from UA deputy MoD (google translate):

"53 seriously wounded were evacuated to Novoazovsk, another 211 people - to Olenevka

They are exchanged by captured Russian soldiers. Measures to rescue other Azovstal fighters continue."

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Huba

[poesel]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leaders-fall-out-of-key-on-ukraine/

I can speak only about Germany in this regard. This article is a lot of conjecture. Germany is not wavering in its support for Ukraine. The public isn't and I haven't heard from any serious politician anything in this direction.

About the ceasefire from Scholz - please remember that this whole war thing is pretty new for Germany. Sounds crazy but it is. Public talking about weapon systems would have put anyone in the right wing nut job category in January. Now it is becoming a normal discussion point.
But there is still a significant amount of pacifists who had fought in the 70s & 80s for peace and against weapons. Scholz is also their chancellor and those words are meant for them.

There has been a local election on Sunday and I won't get into the details. But the winners had both a pro-Ukrainian / pro weapons delivery stand.
The public support is there and what has been said about Ukraine being the one to decide how and when it ends is still true.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, poesel said:

I can speak only about Germany in this regard. This article is a lot of conjecture. Germany is not wavering in its support for Ukraine. The public isn't and I haven't heard from any serious politician anything in this direction.

About the ceasefire from Scholz - please remember that this whole war thing is pretty new for Germany. Sounds crazy but it is. Public talking about weapon systems would have put anyone in the right wing nut job category in January. Now it is becoming a normal discussion point.
But there is still a significant amount of pacifists who had fought in the 70s & 80s for peace and against weapons. Scholz is also their chancellor and those words are meant for them.

There has been a local election on Sunday and I won't get into the details. But the winners had both a pro-Ukrainian / pro weapons delivery stand.
The public support is there and what has been said about Ukraine being the one to decide how and when it ends is still true.

Good to hear, of course.

I for one think we're quite a ways away from any serious change in NATO or EU policy towards Russia.  There's simply too much public pressure to actively support Ukraine and punish Russia.  This might change if the war goes long, but as I've been saying since the war started... that's not an option for Russia.

Steve

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

I can speak only about Germany in this regard. This article is a lot of conjecture. Germany is not wavering in its support for Ukraine. The public isn't and I haven't heard from any serious politician anything in this direction.

About the ceasefire from Scholz - please remember that this whole war thing is pretty new for Germany. Sounds crazy but it is. Public talking about weapon systems would have put anyone in the right wing nut job category in January. Now it is becoming a normal discussion point.
But there is still a significant amount of pacifists who had fought in the 70s & 80s for peace and against weapons. Scholz is also their chancellor and those words are meant for them.

There has been a local election on Sunday and I won't get into the details. But the winners had both a pro-Ukrainian / pro weapons delivery stand.
The public support is there and what has been said about Ukraine being the one to decide how and when it ends is still true.

If I was to bet, I think that's what will happen, i.e. US and Eastern Europe sets the tone, and Old Europe will just follow suit, this is more or less what is happening since February 24th. The one thing that is scary from the one hand and a bit exciting probably, is that the main powerhouses of EU are suddenly not the ones that can be counted on to lead in the situation that emerged - instead they have to be pressured to just follow and not get in the way. This is the first time since Poland is in EU that that happens, it's quite a new situation.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Huba

[Endyamon]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

On the other hand, here's an article from Politico suggesting that French/ German/ Italian counterweight is forming against US led block, that aims for ceasefire and returning to "business as usual" ASAP, instead of seeing Ukraine to a proper victory. The goal here would be preserving the existing order to a bigger possible degree, instead of embracing the unknown of defeated and humiliated Russia and (truly) victorious Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europes-leaders-fall-out-of-key-on-ukraine/

Italian prime minister Draghi is 100% supporting Ukraine, the "problem" is half of the goverment. Half of it is composed by right wing people that did many things with Putin (Salvini and Berlusconi) and by true "communist" who still think that communism exists and Russia is  right to kill those Nazi ukrainians. Plus above this, everyone is against Nato and even most against USA, since it's the most evil country in the world. I keep hearing that it was only Russia that beated Hitler and Germany in WWII, that explains a lot about italian mentality...

[TheVulture]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

I can speak only about Germany in this regard. This article is a lot of conjecture. Germany is not wavering in its support for Ukraine. The public isn't and I haven't heard from any serious politician anything in this direction.

About the ceasefire from Scholz - please remember that this whole war thing is pretty new for Germany. Sounds crazy but it is. Public talking about weapon systems would have put anyone in the right wing nut job category in January. Now it is becoming a normal discussion point.
But there is still a significant amount of pacifists who had fought in the 70s & 80s for peace and against weapons. Scholz is also their chancellor and those words are meant for them.

There has been a local election on Sunday and I won't get into the details. But the winners had both a pro-Ukrainian / pro weapons delivery stand.
The public support is there and what has been said about Ukraine being the one to decide how and when it ends is still true.

I think that the danger is that once the fighting stops, while there will still be a lot of popular support for Ukraine among the public, in a lot of countries the politicians and business leaders will find the lure of making money for themselves off Russia to be to tempting to resist, particularly among those who are less than entirely whole-hearted about sanctioning Russia now.

There are still a depressing number of public idiots everywhere spouting the "yeah, Russia's bad but so is this war, and we should aim for a negotiated diplomatic solution rather than prolonging the war". They will also be the ones shouting loudly post-war about Russia's genuine security concerns, NATO provocation, the 'problematic elements' of Ukraine, and how we need to welcome Russia back into the international fold to prevent something like this happening again.

The real political battle is going to be with these people once it is obvious that Russia has lost and it's going to be all over soon(ish).

[danfrodo]

30 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

GröFaZ:

Mit dem Angriff Steiners wird das alles in Ordnung kommen.

With Steiner's attack, everything will be all right.

 

 

exactly what I've been thinking for a while.  RU attacks just reek of high level micromanagement by non-military player.

[womble]

7 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

They will also be the ones shouting loudly post-war about Russia's genuine security concerns, NATO provocation, the 'problematic elements' of Ukraine, and how we need to welcome Russia back into the international fold to prevent something like this happening again.

And then we'll know whose payroll they're on.

[Battlefront.com]

Ukrainians getting to know their new Dutch equipment a bit better!

 

[akd]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Has the option for leaving Russian controlled territory for Ukraine controlled territory been in the past, doable for civilians to undertake? Or was the border locked down such that wasn't gonna happen and if you were in the DNR/LPR, that was it, no hope of leaving for Kiev? Or could you have simply gone to Russia and then crossed again into Ukraine?

Generally you could leave before the war started.  But that should not, nor has it ever been, a standard for judging national allegiance / virtue.  Just look at the thousands of people who chose to stay in their homes in active war zones despite the imminent threat of starvation, exposure, wounding or death, even people with the resources to leave and nothing tying them by obligation (like elderly, immobile parents) to stay.

Edited May 16, 2022 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

If I was to bet, I think that's what will happen, i.e. US and Eastern Europe sets the tone, and Old Europe will just follow suit, this is more or less what is happening since February 24th. The one thing that is scary from the one hand and a bit exciting probably, is that the main powerhouses of EU are suddenly not the ones that can be counted on to lead in the situation that emerged - instead they have to be pressured to just follow and not get in the way. This is the first time since Poland is in EU that that happens, it's quite a new situation.

 

Look on the bright side, as time goes on "New Europe" may start looking at Poland as a regional leader who understands the threat that an expansionist Russia poses and has good relations with the United States.

Poland already has the largest GDP out of any former communist country in Europe besides Russia itself. 

[Battlefront.com]

This clip just posted.  Likely out of context, but it is still interesting to see he keeps his feet moving and his right hand clamped to the chair when it isn't in motion.  This is the same hand he had clamped to the desk in the infamous discussion with Shoigu.

 

[akd]

7 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

Look on the bright side, as time goes on "New Europe" may start looking at Poland as a regional leader who understands the threat that an expansionist Russia poses and has good relations with the United States.

Poland already has the largest GDP out of any former communist country in Europe besides Russia itself. 

I think Finland should just be put in charge of everything.

[FancyCat]

Politico is also a notorious political gossip rag in the U.S so color me skeptical on anything they write. 

9 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

Look on the bright side, as time goes on "New Europe" may start looking at Poland as a regional leader who understands the threat that an expansionist Russia poses and has good relations with the United States.

Poland already has the largest GDP out of any former communist country in Europe besides Russia itself. 

There was a slight worry Poland would get themselves condemned and isolated by the EU for defending and being alongside Orban and turning anti-democratic, but I'm hoping with Russia reminding Europe and Poland where to point the sword towards, Poland cools off and recognizes its place in the EU as part of a strong EE bloc is much better than trying to do whatever the hell its doing with its judiciary. 

[sburke]

Allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin Scolded Over Ukraine at CSTO Summit (thedailybeast.com)

But Lukashenko complained that the members of the alliance haven’t been banding behind Russia as much as they should, especially as Russia works to address NATO’s expansion, a common argument Russian officials and allies have been using to justify the war in Ukraine. In a likely reference to Finland and Sweden expressing interest in joining NATO, Lukashenko called for more support as NATO’s threats continue, from “NATO saber-rattling near our western borders to a full-scale hybrid war unleashed against us,” according to Interfax.

“Russia should not fight alone against the expansion of NATO,” he said.

Putin himself complained about a “surge in frenzied Russophobia in the so-called civilized and politically correct Western countries,” and promised the expansion of NATO would “certainly evoke a response on our part. We will see what it will be like based on the threats that are created for us.”

Putin also demanded that his counterparts do more for Russia in the future, citing what he claimed was “documentary evidence” found during the invasion in Ukraine that he said allegedly shows that “components of biological weapons were developed in close proximity to our borders.”

To respond to those alleged biological weapons threats—threats Putin has said Russia has faced for some time—Putin rallied CSTO members during the meeting to agree to demonstrate their combined military might by running joint CSTO exercises this fall in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

 

Joint exercises in the fall thousands of miles from Ukraine...yeah that's gonna make a difference.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Something that will likely be missed by many is the ISW update's reporting yesterday on Russia reconstituting BTGs by combining pretty much any unit that happens to be walking by at the time.  VDV with regular army, sailors, whatever has a pulse is good enough.  The information is from the Ukrainian General Staff which has, so far, been a reliably good source of information.

Quote

Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower.  Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves. The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crewmembers.  Newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat.

What does that tell us?  Several things beyond the obvious point that Russia is hurting for replacements.

The big thing that this underscores is that whomever is making the calls at senior levels, they don't seem to understand or care what this does to unit cohesion.  It's bad enough to scoop up random guys and toss them into a sister unit, but from entirely different types of units or even branches of service or private contracting?  Yesh.

Germany did a lot of this in WW2, however it generally pulled the units from the line and gave them at least some time to get to know each other and weak links to be discovered before going into combat.  It seems this is not happening in any meaningful way or, probably, at all.

This is now the second time that the peacetime units have been diluted, if not the third.  Whatever positive fighting qualities a Russian unit might have had going into this war, it's most likely completely gone now.  As a result of this idiocy there's going to be far higher casualties for even less gain than there otherwise would be.

But hey... Putin is the master strategist, so I'm sure this is all part of his big plan!

Steve

[akd]

The silly existence of the T-80U in active service proves a handy analytical tool:

 

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Something that will likely be missed by many is the ISW update's reporting yesterday on Russia reconstituting BTGs by combining pretty much any unit that happens to be walking by at the time.  VDV with regular army, sailors, whatever has a pulse is good enough.  The information is from the Ukrainian General Staff which has, so far, been a reliably good source of information.

What does that tell us?  Several things beyond the obvious point that Russia is hurting for replacements.

The big thing that this underscores is that whomever is making the calls at senior levels, they don't seem to understand or care what this does to unit cohesion.  It's bad enough to scoop up random guys and toss them into a sister unit, but from entirely different types of units or even branches of service or private contracting?  Yesh.

Germany did a lot of this in WW2, however it generally pulled the units from the line and gave them at least some time to get to know each other and weak links to be discovered before going into combat.  It seems this is not happening in any meaningful way or, probably, at all.

This is now the second time that the peacetime units have been diluted, if not the third.  Whatever positive fighting qualities a Russian unit might have had going into this war, it's most likely completely gone now.  As a result of this idiocy there's going to be far higher casualties for even less gain than there otherwise would be.

But hey... Putin is the master strategist, so I'm sure this is all part of his big plan!

Steve

and contrast the above to Steve's earlier post showing UKR forces training as units on their recently arrived equipment.  UKR feels safe enough at the front to actually train troops instead of desperately throwing them into the fire.  Since leaves on trees I am assuming those training videos were recent.

Meanwhile, if those UKR river crossings east of Kharkiv are real we might see some fun things happen.  Hopefully lots of trapped RU troops and equipment.

[Holman]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Something that will likely be missed by many is the ISW update's reporting yesterday on Russia reconstituting BTGs by combining pretty much any unit that happens to be walking by at the time.  VDV with regular army, sailors, whatever has a pulse is good enough.

Look. That's what you do when everything goes to hell and you're playing in Real Time mode...