How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

Russian troops attempted to cross the border in Shostka district of Sumy region this morning, withdraw after clash with border guards
 

 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Not sure about pontoons, but submerged bridges were used by Soviet forces in WW2  - see https://www.lonesentry.com/articles/ttt07/submerged-bridge.html for a reference that includes how quickly they can be constructed.

It may be even easier for the Donets, if it's shallow enough to just sink pre-fabricated sections to the river bed that provide enough clearance to keep vehicles from flooding and provide the firm base needed to avoid sticking in the river mud.

I'll defer to former army engineers on whether intentionally flooding a pontoon section (or the whole bridge, after constructing it) would be a very quick and easy way to achieve that.

So from the link you provided I understand that this type of bridge uses more or less traditional pontoons, but anchored to the piles driven into the river bed that keep it underwater? Makes sense, however as the link suggests, preparations have to be substantial, and building such a bridge in a drone infested environment undetected must be a challange.

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

So from the link you provided I understand that this type of bridge uses more or less traditional pontoons, but anchored to the piles driven into the river bed that keep it underwater? Makes sense, however as the link suggests, preparations have to be substantial, and building such a bridge in a drone infested environment undetected must be a challange.

I can be wrong, but PMP bridges can be slightly submerged if this need - this trick our engineers made in 2014, when they put pontoon crossing through Kozhevnia river for supply route of UKR forces along the border. DPR forces and Russians didn't spot it long time. But anyway the waters of river is not so muddy to completely cover the pontoon sectins from the UAV camera.

PMP pontoons havn't piles - this is floating bridge. It sections can be used also as ferries of different lengths. 

[LongLeftFlank]

So based on this rather dramatic action, the UA is still very much on the defensive in  Donbas.

UA logistics problems in the 'bulge'? That said, they clearly had enough shells to repel the river crossings

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Huba]

A follow-up to the gifted "Danas" - looks like a nice piece of equipment, 155mm L52.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

24 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

[EDIT: looks like you either changed your post, or else there's something strange going on with Twitter links, in which case my apologies]

As others here have noted, take Roepke's reporting with many, many grains of salt. He uses a weird mix of sources, many quite dated and draws overly dramatic conclusions. Repeatedly.  While reporting from the Ukrainian side, he bears many hallmarks of a concern troll.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[cesmonkey]

Supposedly:

Russia and Ukraine reach agreement to evacuate wounded from Azovstal

https://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/151841-azovstal_evacuation_wounded/

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/15/2022 at 7:06 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

3 bloody weeks later and the Russians finally seem to hold Dovhenke, which @Combatintman flagged back on 23 April as a tough nut to crack on the road to Sloviansk.

... I am a little skeptical though that the Russians are going to be doing any broken-field running at this point though, still less pocketing anything.

...DefMon seems to think that's a southern limit for the Izyum bridgehead.

 

Ha, Dovhenke is still in play! 

.... since early April, b!tchez.

 

 

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Leonid Sharshukov, unit unknown, likely engineer. Died in hospital on 9th of May

Mayor Viacheslav Karenko, due to anchor signs he served in Black Sea Fleet, but in some coastal unit. He had Ukrainian citizenship, served in Ukrainian naval forces and betrayed in 2014. 

Also check theese lost high-ranked officers from the captured list of 1st tank army losses, posted above:

KIA:

lt.colonel Valentin Kuzmin, HQ of 2nd GMRD

mayor Alexandr Shchetkin, 1st GTR of 2nd GMRD

mayor Dmitriy Lytnyev, 423rd GMRR of 4th GTD

mayor Ilgiz Usmanov, 423rd GMRR of 4th GTD

mayor Maxim Khlebko, 7th separate recon battalion of 47th GTD

MIA:

lt.colonel Dmitriy Golosenko, 1st GTR of 2nd GMRD

POWs:

lt.colonel Yevgeniy Starodubov, 1st GTR of 2nd GMRD

mayor Ilshat Gazimov, 27th GMRB

mayor Yuriy Grechko, 96th separate recon brigade

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

Ru lost less tanks/AFVs, and more artillery yesterday than my mk1 eyeball of the recent trend. Reflects that they don't have enough left to keep attacking as hard, maybe? And tried to push more guns forward to maintain pressure?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So based on this rather dramatic action, the UA is still very much on the defensive in  Donbas.

UA logistics problems in the 'bulge'? That said, they clearly had enough shells to repel the river crossings

 

Two thoughts on the dam, worth what you paid...

1) This is a section of front where both side have been digging since 2014 if I am flipping back and forth between map windows correctly, so Ukraine probably doesn't want to attack here regardless.

2) It could be an attempt to compensate for drying weather, and maintain AFV unfriendly conditions on this section of front for longer.

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Two thoughts on the dam, worth what you paid...

1) This is a section of front where both side have been digging since 2014 if I am flipping back and forth between map windows correctly, so Ukraine probably doesn't want to attack here regardless.

2) It could be an attempt to compensate for drying weather, and maintain AFV unfriendly conditions on this section of front for longer.

My thoughts exactly. Pushing into Donbas is probably the last on the To-Do list of Ukrainian Army, even after re-taking Crimea.

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

1) This is a section of front where both side have been digging since 2014 if I am flipping back and forth between map windows correctly, so Ukraine probably doesn't want to attack here regardless.

Izium was out of JFO, so no heavy fortifications there until war begun. Lysychansk maybe has fortified positions, though it was deep rear of JFO.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

 

[riptides]

Some serious flying.

 

 

[Armorgunner]

Graphic images

Soldiers of the Ukrainian 93 motorized brigade, have defeated 3, T-72B3 Obr 2016 with Panzerfaust 3´s. And climb up on a flyedoff turret, saying "knock knock, is there any russian occupyers here" And looks down in one of the turret hatches. And one severly burned guy, had followed the turret when flying off, and sits in his place there. a bit more in the film, english subs.

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Usual reservists gathering, I think. Without official declaration of war, they havn't juridiacal right to mobilize anyone at the war. All what they can do - to call reservists and brainwosh them about "enemy at rhe gate! We must fight with nazi, puppets of US" and offer big salary for participation. Of course they can find people, which will agree to sign contracts or even to go at war as volunteers in composition of some units, which sponsored by different oligarchs like Maloffev or around-Kremlin patriotic organizations.

I did see one report that draft notices were posted in DPR territory for women.  I have no way to know if this is accurate, but it would not surprise me.

Steve

[womble]

14 minutes ago, riptides said:

Some serious flying.

 

 

Wow. That's in "Pull up! Camels!" territory of NOE flying.

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I did see one report that draft notices were posted in DPR territory for women.  I have no way to know if this is accurate, but it would not surprise me.

Steve

Is there going to be ANYONE left in the DPR by the time this is over?

[Huba]

More sources claim that UAF crossed Donets in Staryi Saltiv, also info of probing attacks in direction of Vovchansk. We'll know in a couple of days, all the reports are based on RU sources:

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Ru lost less tanks/AFVs, and more artillery yesterday than my mk1 eyeball of the recent trend. Reflects that they don't have enough left to keep attacking as hard, maybe? And tried to push more guns forward to maintain pressure?

for those of us hoping for RU collapse it seems there's lots of positive information from the excellent posts over the weekend.  Desperation in manpower, shown by the crazy mixing of sailors w soldier, mercs w paratroopers, conscription notices, possibly women being conscripted in DNR.  Low morale, low cohesion, and zero motivation (other than looting, though I think all the good stuff already stolen in the occupied areas).

Another nice precursor for collapse is the loss of the RU artillery umbrella.  It seems the number of arty systems lost per day is climbing.  And we'll really know there's an RU arty shortage if the rumored Donetz crossing east of Kharkiv is real. 

By the way, the more things change the more they stay the same.  Currently reading Prit Buttar's Collision of Empires, eastern front 1914.  paraphrase: "the germans setup two pontoon bridges but each time troops formed up to cross the bridging sites were pounded by Russian artillery". 

And it sounds like US et al need to send some trucks.

 

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Supposedly:

Russia and Ukraine reach agreement to evacuate wounded from Azovstal

https://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/151841-azovstal_evacuation_wounded/

If Russia is saying it, worthless paper. 

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

More sources claim that UAF crossed Donets in Staryi Saltiv, also info of probing attacks in direction of Vovchansk. We'll know in a couple of days, all the reports are based on RU sources:

Show of hands... who here would be surprised to learn that what Russia spectacularly failed to do 7 times is something Ukraine did correctly the first time?

Seriously, if this is true (and it does feel like it) then Russia is in a world of hurt for at least the next few days.  If Ukraine can hold onto its new bridgehead then rail and road traffic from Belgorod to Izyum bridgehead (and everywhere between) is severely threatened.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Let's see if I have this straight.  Russian liberators blew up the building and deliberately killed civilians while attempting to liberate Kharkiv from flower planting Nazis.  Do I have that about right?