How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Suleyman said:

Although I know Russians as well as other major powers commit atrocious war crimes on innocent people during war, it does seem off that they would almost brag about it to their family. I don't know if those phone calls are real, but I know there are war criminals on the Russian side that commit evil acts. If those phone calls are real, it means there's psychos enlisted within their ranks. Which is not good for anyone, like how crazy do you have to be to brag about it to your family? Disgusting. 

We've had several rounds of deep discussion on this point here.  The conclusion is that hundreds of years of uninterrupted culture of brutality and disregard for the sanctity of Human life is a major part of Russian culture.  Russia is not alone in this.  China has similar problems.

See previous post of mine about Occam's Razor.

Note, this is not to say that all Russians are at this level of (from our perspective) barbarity.  For sure that is not the case.  However, it is deeply ingrained in their culture and so it is not surprising that it is out in the open amongst Russians.  The paradox is that even as they are talking about their crimes from a first person perspective, they still think Ukraine and the West's documentation of the crimes is faked.  This deductive reasoning shortcoming is, unfortunately, also a deeply ingrained part of Russian culture.

Steve

 

[MikeyD]

I was thinking about that Moscow book publisher burning down. Ukraine wouldn't bother with it but torching the maker of Russian history textbooks seems too 'symbolic' to merely be an industrial accident. There may be internal opposition in Russia that dare not show its face but is willing to commit bold acts.

[FancyCat]

For those wondering why two "fraternal" peoples can end up this way, leaving aside colonial and imperialist discussion, Ukrainians are betraying their identities as Russians, to accept the West, to become part of the anti-Russia. So in the sense they are "fraternal", Ukrainians have broken the fraternal bond first. It really isn't surprising at the war crimes being inflicted, if you realize the framing. These are simply corrective measures at a wayward little brother (for Ukrainians and Ukraine is a younger brother to Russia and Russians) who has fallen into some very disturbing hatred against their elder brother.

[Haiduk]

35 minutes ago, akd said:

Wrapped up in a bunch of propaganda, Russia confirms loss of Staryi Saltiv:

More interesting, our General Staff to this time didn't confirm this. Some people from there hint Russian counter attacks and shelled with artillery, but we hold taken positions. Also maybe operatoin is more longer and have more deep goals, than reaching Siverskiy Donets bank, so official information will be later.

The chief of miliatry-civil administration said only that evacuatin of civilians from Staryi Saltiv is impossible, but he will not comment antthing about either this village liberated or not.  

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

Wrapped up in a bunch of propaganda, Russia confirms loss of Staryi Saltiv:

Aside from believing that Staryi Saltiv is now in Ukrainian hands, the only other thing I believe in that Russian posting is that the SBU is there to arrest collaborators.  The time to identify them and sort them out from the rest of the population is right now when things are still fresh in people's minds.

Steve

[sross112]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

For those wondering why two "fraternal" peoples can end up this way, leaving aside colonial and imperialist discussion, Ukrainians are betraying their identities as Russians, to accept the West, to become part of the anti-Russia. So in the sense they are "fraternal", Ukrainians have broken the fraternal bond first. It really isn't surprising at the war crimes being inflicted, if you realize the framing. These are simply corrective measures at a wayward little brother (for Ukrainians and Ukraine is a younger brother to Russia and Russians) who has fallen into some very disturbing hatred against their elder brother.

I get what you are saying but I think the analogy of brothers doesn't really fit. Russia is more like the psychotic ex-girlfriend who decides "If I can't have him than no one can!" and "If I can just get him chained up in the basement I could make him love me again." 

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

For those wondering why two "fraternal" peoples can end up this way, leaving aside colonial and imperialist discussion, Ukrainians are betraying their identities as Russians, to accept the West, to become part of the anti-Russia. So in the sense they are "fraternal", Ukrainians have broken the fraternal bond first. It really isn't surprising at the war crimes being inflicted, if you realize the framing. These are simply corrective measures at a wayward little brother (for Ukrainians and Ukraine is a younger brother to Russia and Russians) who has fallen into some very disturbing hatred against their elder brother.

Of course, the Russians don't for a second consider that their "little brother" was driven away by their own brutality towards them.  They have the same cognitive issues with all their "little cousins" and "neighbors" so totally and deeply expressing their distrust and fear of Russia.

Russians are not bad at pattern recognition.  They do clearly see that nobody wants to live under their rule.  The problem they have is not understanding that they and they alone are the reason for it, not some sort of vast conspiracy theory about the West tricking/cajoling people to fear Russia.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree that China is watching this war between the second biggest autocratic bad boy and the West with great interest.  However, for now I'm looking at this as a glass half full thing.

Russia thought it was strong enough to take on the West.  Militarily, economically, and politically.  Russia was wrong on all three counts, as far as we can tell (i.e. the war isn't over yet).  Every single important thing Russia thought would happen has not.  Every single important thing that Russia though wouldn't happen has. 

Many of these same assumptions probably have analogs within China's long standing calculus for war with the West.  In particular that quantity can easily win over quality (military), economic impact to self can be minimized (economic), and influence purchased over many decades can be relied upon (political).  They also likely see that these failures compelled Russia to bang on the nuke drum pretty early in the war and yet the West isn't flinching.

China is looking at all of Russia's abject failures and has one of two conclusions it can draw from it:

1. Russia didn't do overt Evil well enough, so the solution is to do overt Evil better
2. Overt Evil isn't likely going to prevail and keep the homefront secure, so the solution is to maintain covert Evil and be happy with an intact homefront

Never underestimate an autocratic state's capability for making the wrong choice, however so far China has shown itself to be vastly more pragmatic and capable than Russia.

The West's approach to China has not worked out the way it wanted in regards to having China convert itself to a more-or-less Western style of governance.  However, I do think it's worked in the sense that China sees benefit in keeping the current relationship with the West more-or-less intact.  Unlike Russia, China has a lot to lose by damaging the economic relationship with the West.  China needs Western markets to exploit in order to get its revenue, not just petro dependency like with Russia. 

I'm not saying I'm optimistic, exactly, but I do think there's a very good possibility that China is looking at all of this and thinking "maybe we should just keep doing what we're doing for another 10-15 years and reassess at that point".

Steve

Spare a microscopic bit of sympathy for every corporal, and and quartermaster in the Chinese army. Can you imagine the inspections and audits Xi has ordered to be sure how much of a military he ACTUALLY has.

[FancyCat]

Just now, sross112 said:

I get what you are saying but I think the analogy of brothers doesn't really fit. Russia is more like the psychotic ex-girlfriend who decides "If I can't have him than no one can!" and "If I can just get him chained up in the basement I could make him love me again." 

When you add in the brutality of Russian culture, and disregard for human life, it makes sense. For example, the minimization of spousal violence in Russia. If the idea of beating their wife is fine, and considered not abusive, well...you start to see the image of a society that does not regard violence as bad.

Not to mention their brutality of conscripts, it's built into their military training regime. Dedovshchina. It is entirely within parameters for Russians to treat their "younger brother" with horrible violence for their transgressions.

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

That's their best tank too. I don't see an open LOS to them for Javelins, must have been TB-2 or arty? 

On the photo UKR military correspondent Oleh Tsaplienko. He wrote that Russians tried to retake one village, which our forces liberated recently in Kharkiv oblast, but in the fight lost T-90M, BMP, MTLB and withdew. No more any iformation

[Suleyman]

@Battlefront.com

I see that it’s a common theme in major powers, and the Russians do have a brutal history, although not relevant to Ukraine even we (US) done a lot of wrong too. China might actually be worse than Russians when it comes to crimes. Considering what they do to over a million Uyghurs.

Back on to topic, are the Ukrainians in Mariupol expected to hold out for another few weeks? Those guys aren’t gonna give up.

 
 

[Taranis]

↑ Mistral (SAM) units in Ukrainian Army

↓On May the 3rd, 2x French Mirage 2000-5F deployed in Estonia as part of the NATO eAP sky police mission took off on alert to accompany 3 aircraft operating near the Baltic airspace

 

Quote

Un hélicoptère militaire russe viole à nouveau l’espace aérien de la Finlande
Un hélicoptère de l’armée russe a violé l’espace aérien de la Finlande mercredi matin, a annoncé le ministère de la défense finlandais, au moment où Helsinki prépare une très probable candidature à l’OTAN. « L’appareil était un hélicoptère Mi-17 et la profondeur de la violation présumée était de quatre à cinq kilomètres » lors de cet incident enregistré à 9 h 40, heure française, a précisé un porte-parole à l’Agence France-Presse (AFP).

C’est la deuxième fois en un mois et la deuxième fois depuis le début de l’année qu’Helsinki dénonce une incursion d’un appareil russe dans son espace aérien, selon le ministère. Le 8 avril, un appareil de transport civil – mais appartenant à l’armée russe – était aussi brièvement entré dans l’espace aérien finlandais.

Les experts ont prévenu que des actes d’intimidation russes étaient à prévoir contre la Finlande et la Suède, alors que les deux pays envisagent de rejoindre l’OTAN pour mieux se protéger de Moscou. Quatre avions de combat russes avaient également violé l’espace suédois au début de mars au niveau de Gotland, île stratégique en mer Baltique. Vendredi soir, un avion de reconnaissance russe a également franchi la frontière aérienne près d’une base navale dans le sud du pays.

Des actes hostiles difficiles à attribuer, comme des attaques informatiques, sont également jugés probables, selon les analystes, qui écartent toutefois l’hypothèse d’une confrontation militaire directe. Le président finlandais, Sauli Niinstö, doit rendre publique le 12 mai sa position personnelle concernant une candidature de la Finlande à l’OTAN, mais un fort soutien de l’opinion et des députés au Parlement sont déjà acquis.

Selon des médias finlandais, la décision du gouvernement pourrait être prise dans les prochains jours.

 

Russian military helicopter violates Finnish airspace again
A Russian army helicopter violated Finland's airspace on Wednesday morning, Finland's defense ministry said, as Helsinki prepares a very likely NATO bid. “The device was an Mi-17 helicopter and the depth of the alleged violation was four to five kilometers” during this incident recorded at 9:40 a.m. French time, a spokesperson told Agence France-Presse. (AFP).

This is the second time in a month and the second time since the beginning of the year that Helsinki has denounced an incursion by a Russian aircraft into its airspace, according to the ministry. On April 8, a civilian transport aircraft – but belonging to the Russian army – also briefly entered Finnish airspace.

Experts have warned that Russian intimidation is to be expected against Finland and Sweden, as the two countries consider joining NATO to better protect themselves from Moscow. Four Russian fighter planes had also violated Swedish space at the beginning of March at Gotland, a strategic island in the Baltic Sea. On Friday evening, a Russian reconnaissance plane also crossed the air border near a naval base in the south of the country.

Hostile acts difficult to attribute, such as computer attacks, are also considered likely, according to analysts, who however rule out the hypothesis of a direct military confrontation. Finnish President Sauli Niinstö is due to make his personal position public on May 12 regarding a Finnish candidacy for NATO, but strong support from public opinion and members of Parliament has already been acquired.

According to Finnish media, the government's decision could be taken in the coming days.

 

 

[Suleyman]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

On the photo UKR military correspondent Oleh Tsaplienko. He wrote that Russians tried to retake one village, which our forces liberated recently in Kharkiv oblast, but in the fight lost T-90M, BMP, MTLB and withdew. No more any iformation

That's actually a big win. That tank is the M1A2 SEPs counterpart, at least the only one that got a chance toe to toe. 

If they lost it while performing a counter attack, most likely an ATGM took it out in my opinion.

[danfrodo]

not to get too snarky, but I suppose if LePen were elected these weapons would've been sent to the Russians?  I thank all the gods she did not win, both for Ukraine and for the world.

[FancyCat]

16 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I get what you are saying but I think the analogy of brothers doesn't really fit. Russia is more like the psychotic ex-girlfriend who decides "If I can't have him than no one can!" and "If I can just get him chained up in the basement I could make him love me again." 

Something to add on to that, Russians consider themselves superior, chosen by God, etc, the famed Russian chauvinism. The turning of the little brother against the elder constitutes a dagger at the throat of the elder. Matches well with the rhetoric of the West being intent on destroying Russia and Russians, and their culture. What better way than for family to kill family?

In more practical terms, a successful little brother turning into the open arms of the West may well cause the rest of the Russian family to turn away from Russia and to the West. A Ukraine that is successful inside the EU may well convince Belarusians to turn awag and many Russians themselves to revolt against Russian elite and by extension their society and culture.

[Haiduk]

Former (?) Russian DPR fighters Mofack and Wayne Howel wrote on Lost Armor forum about stalled assaults of Maryinka and Avdiivka and about big losses of armor in "regular"  DPR units

Translation:

- All around stuck dead. They can't take neither Marynina, nor Avdiivka

- But do they really try?

- They are trying

- Avdiivka exactly [can't be taken]. Maryinka, more probably no, than yes.

- But on what basis such conclusion? It's seems nobody seen a bunch of destroyed armor around Avdiivka, more similar on assault groups actions

- That's pretty much how it is. Almost all armor already knoked out, now only infantry and artillery are acting  

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/uic32e/kraken_group_released_a_long_video_showing_the/

pretty interesting clip. Shows also a little more of the organization side of things.

Edited May 4, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[BeondTheGrave]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

What better way than for family to kill family?

Related:

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

In more practical terms, a successful little brother turning into the open arms of the West may well cause the rest of the Russian family to turn away from Russia and to the West.

Also related:

Quote

Melians. And how, pray, could it turn out as good for us to serve as for you to rule?

Athenians. Because you would have the advantage of submitting before suffering the worst, and we should gain by not destroying you.

Melians. So that you would not consent to our being neutral, friends instead of enemies, but allies of neither side.

Athenians. No; for your hostility cannot so much hurt us as your friendship will be an argument to our subjects of our weakness, and your enmity of our power.

Melians. Is that your subjects' idea of equity, to put those who have nothing to do with you in the same category with peoples that are most of them your own colonists, and some conquered rebels?

Athenians. As far as right goes they think one has as much of it as the other, and that if any maintain their independence it is because they are strong, and that if we do not molest them it is because we are afraid; so that besides extending our empire we should gain in security by your subjection; the fact that you are islanders and weaker than others rendering it all the more important that you should not succeed in baffling the masters of the sea.

Melians. But do you consider that there is no security in the policy which we indicate? For here again if you debar us from talking about justice and invite us to obey your interest, we also must explain ours, and try to persuade you, if the two happen to coincide. How can you avoid making enemies of all existing neutrals who shall look at case from it that one day or another you will attack them? And what is this but to make greater the enemies that you have already, and to force others to become so who would otherwise have never thought of it?

Athenians. Why, the fact is that continentals generally give us but little alarm; the liberty which they enjoy will long prevent their taking precautions against us; it is rather islanders like yourselves, outside our empire, and subjects smarting under the yoke, who would be the most likely to take a rash step and lead themselves and us into obvious danger.

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Suleyman said:

Although I know Russians as well as other major powers commit atrocious war crimes on innocent people during war, it does seem off that they would almost brag about it to their family.

That's because your western mindset refuses to believe the barbarity of russians. What seems like something out of a horror movie to you and thus not real - is an absolute norm there.

Russia today is what Nazi Germany would've been if it only half-lost the war like Russia did.

 

[akd]

Captured fuel truck (disguised as regular truck) and BMP-3M:

 

[Suleyman]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

That's because your western mindset refuses to believe the barbarity of russians. What seems like something out of a horror movie to you and thus not real - is an absolute norm there.

Russia today is what Nazi Germany would've been if it only half-lost the war like Russia did.

 

No western mindset here, I'm a Muslim American. I know how evil the Russians can be, what they did in Chechnya, Afghanistan and many other places. It's the fact he would call his family to tell them, is what's crazy to me. Although, you have a point, there's many examples of people killing innocents and bragging about it. In the moment I was just caught in surprise. 

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Captured fuel truck (disguised as regular truck) and BMP-3M:

 

Interesting, looks like the Russians have figured out that these things are primary targets...and they are likely running out of them.

[Taranis]

Stupid question but I can't find what was said about the Kraken unit. It seems to me that it is a unit dependent on the Azov Regiment and deployed towards Kharkiv. So it would be a national guard unit, motorized and the size of a battalion?

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

There is a seed of a very important point here - No, we cannot trust anything Russia is saying...because they are the enemy.  I am not sure it has sunk in yet within the western world but at some point -some argue from the very beginning- this whole thing has become a war between Russia and the Western Global Order.  If the May 9th things happens or not, we are already in an undeclared war between Russia, its allies, and the western world.  Ukraine gets the unfortunate distinction of being the battleground but this thing does not end if either Russia takes the entire nation, or is kicked out of the entire nation of Ukraine; this is a violent collision of irreconcilable certainties as to how the world will be ordered into the latter half of the 21st century.

I strongly suspect that we are seeing orders of magnitude proxy happening here.  Ukraine is one, Russia is the other.  And I am not going all "conspiracy theory" here but the other great world power is watching this all in the background and seeing a lot of wins as outcomes.  China is not only tacitly supporting Russia and, it is grabbing up all that US intel - a brilliant move to beat Russia to the punch, but risky in its exposure to China, a risk I am sure the US was aware of.  It could be argued that China is staying on the side lines because it has the most to gain in this collision, and it is likely in its interests to keep it going until Russia is burned out and pulled into its sphere further as a weakened and dependent partner.

This also sets up for further economic incursion into Europe as there is nothing illegal with Chinese owned oil and gas, coming out of Russian soil, being bought by Europe.  Our sanctions are against Russian corporations.  As this thing expands and intensifies, I am starting to see a Chinese long-game emerge as Russian and Western world drive whatever is left of Russia into the Eastern orbit.  I personally would have thought this impossible given culture and history but here we are.

As to the current fight, this is very much us vs them and will be long after the shooting stops in Ukraine itself.  Welcome to the Complicated War 1.

  

My take:

I strongly agree that this a proxy war but (as in the Cold War I), what we imagine to be a solid bloc is really just a collection of more or less capable autocracies with shared interests and strong internal competition. The current iteration is a reversal of the last round in that China is now clearly the senior partner with global heft while Russia is the localized variant which believes it has less to lose and so exercises less restraint. 

What that means in practical terms is that the relationship between the two is highly instrumental and less coordinated than it may appear to us. In this case, Russia was set on a course of revanchism with Ukraine. China was agnostic to that course *as long as it didn't harm Chinese interests*. That is why Putin informed Xi and that is why Putin framed the Ukraine invasion as a "special operation" and that is also why he planned for it to be over in a couple of weeks. China had been doing $10 billion dollars a year in trade with Ukraine and was not on bad terms with the Ukrainian oligarchs. Xi didn't sign off on anything he expected to damage that.

So where does that leave China and Russia?

First off, yes China gets to scoop up tons of technical intelligence about Western military capabilities but what it is gathering must be quite sobering to them. They are learning that even reasonably well trained Western proxy armies fighting on home turf with decent morale and at the far end of the aggressor's supply line are quite difficult to beat. They are discovering that top down militaries with little large scale experience face an intense combat learning curve. They are watching the Western democracies reawaken to their military power, their basic ideological unity and a new found willingness to forego trade when the geopolitical stakes rise far enough.

Second, China has realized that its most significant ally is an inept rentier state run by degenerate geopolitical gamblers and there simply isn't anyone else in Eurasia who is a likely and useful ally in a conflict with the US/EU/Japan. And that is why China is staying on the sidelines. Internal Chinese state propaganda is loudly pro-Russian and had rolled out what was clearly a long planned campaign to denigrate the West and glorify Russian operations. Yet look at what Putin is not getting: arms, aid or real political support on the international stage for the invasion. You can bet that it was promised when he met Xi...with the unspoken proviso that such was dependent on a quick success.

In short, yes it is a proxy war but not against a bloc that has anything more to it than a series of shared interests and virtually zero soft power.

PS:

Forgot to mention: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/eu-aims-to-target-russia-s-global-oil-sales-with-insurance-ban

Shipping insurance folks of my acquaintance are saying that the big Chinese shippers of Russian oil/gas were already going to let current contracts with Moscow lapse but also were looking into how to drop them immediately if they couldn't ensure cargoes. A further salutary lesson to the PRC that the global economic structure is designed in such a way that the West has a multitude of tools to generate severe costs on challengers.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by billbindc

[Huba]

Apparently Russians managed to hit a railroad bridge (or an approach to it, there are different reports) in Dnipro. Pitiful effort in my opinion, without air supremacy there isn't much they can do to interdict UAs strategic movement of materiel.