How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of the fighting somewhere on the southern front.

Soldier says four Russians armored vehicles attacked their position, but couldn't reach it. They abandoned all own vehciles and run away across the field, but not all. He says "now we will go to take vehicles. But they damaged our tank, fortunately all alive and inact. Some more enemy knoked out vehicles there in ravine" 

Soviet ATGM Fagot on position amd UKR RPV-16 thermobaric ammunition (not enough good copy of RPO-A)

  

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile @akd

I don't know either relate this death to this war or not, but... it suspicious

Lt.Colonel Grigoriy Tarasenko. Until 2013 was a chief of 243rd miliatry range Molkino, Krasnodar kray. This unit and military range was officially disbanded and closed in 2013, but the range continued own work. It became training center for LDPR separatists, Russian volunteers and Vagner PMC. Current duty of Tarasenko is unknown. There is no official news in local media about his death. Local citizen just saw his grave on the cemetry. Data of death 23th of March

 

ehh why not.  The list is getting ridiculous anyway.  This guy is approaching 400 officers now.

KIA/WIA/MIA Officer list - Google Drive

[Harmon Rabb]

Good news for Ukraine if true.

[TheVulture]

Here's how the estimated front lines around Karkhiv have moved in the last 7 days (diagonal lined area shows territory regained by Ukraine).

For added info, I've added in various exploding things in Russian controlled areas in the same time (one supply convoy, 2 military warehouses (1 of which is slighly off the north of the map - too lazy to go and re-crop everything), 2 claims by Russians of shelling of border villages).

Not included is a claimed shot down TB2 drone and 10 or so incidents of Russian air defences (mostly in Belgorod) firing at unknown stuff / reckless geese. And a few claims of shell fragments landing in random places.

[Haiduk]

Russian propagandist and military corerrespondent Aleksandr Kots writes: The practice of Special Military Operation shows that one Ukrainian sniper can turn T-72B3 into dozer, firing at gunner's sight Sosna-U. One precise shot and all firepower drops to zero. Multilayer sight galsses of the UKR tanks can be replaced easily , because they have reserve, but we don't have it.

Somebody in comments anwered Sosna-U should have reserve glasses

So, either our snipers so lucky, that Russian tankers exhausted own glasses reserves or thesese spare parts were absent or even stolen before a war.

 

    

And here is our SOF snipers claimed they destroyed Russian BMP-2 with sniper rifle. Maybe second was .50 cal, but first guy has UAR-10 .308

There is no moment of BMP hit on the video. You can see it first how BMP burns and one sniper jokes to other: "So, are you now sniper-artillerist?" then the writing "several minutes early" you can see moving BMP filmed from drone of this SOF unit

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

58 minutes ago, sburke said:

ehh why not.  The list is getting ridiculous anyway.  This guy is approaching 400 officers now.

KIA/WIA/MIA Officer list - Google Drive

He counts junior officers and captains. It's redundant, because junior offciers in war of high intensity is "short-living resourse". One guy from Izium azis wrote, in their company all officers are wounded, but all light or average. Other guy of 95th brigade (also Izium) wrote his company already have about half of personnel. So on companies level both sides suffer big losses.   

[akd]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Looks like the bagged a re-fueler or two, and I think we are seeing ammo cook-off too.

The “before” image:

[TheVulture]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

The “before” image:

Holy **** that's a lot of trucks to stick right next to each other when you don't have to.  You'd think they'd have learned of the potential downsides of doing this by now.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

Holy **** that's a lot of trucks to stick right next to each other when you don't have to.  You'd think they'd have learned of the potential downsides of doing this by now.

the costco of supply truck inventory. idiots

[chrisl]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

The “before” image:

None of these guys have ever seen google satellite view or thought about where it comes from.

[Machor]

9 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

There’s other things you can do but I can’t really say what.

Roger. 

[Ultradave]

19 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Holy **** that's a lot of trucks to stick right next to each other when you don't have to.  You'd think they'd have learned of the potential downsides of doing this by now.

You'd think, wouldn't you? That's just asking for it.

Dave

[The_Capt]

37 minutes ago, akd said:

The “before” image:

Well beyond the whole “let’s stick our bare asses in the air” -seriously have these guys never heard of cam nets? - I count 25-30 logistical vehicles, pretty much parked nose to tail.  That is a BTGs worth of logistics, based on the after video it looks like they pretty much got the lot, or enough of them.  So add one more BTG off the board on top of whatever F echelon losses they had that day.

Edited May 3, 2022 by The_Capt

[Machor]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Going to be a fast parsing of every university in the western world for some Buryat speakers who would like green cards or equivalent, and to continue their educations at government expense if they just take this little sabbatical to Warsaw...

Bearstronaut cannot disclose their methods, but I can think of some technological solutions as a civvie - the most important thing is that you know the target language is Buryat.

Compare this to a situation where two stations simply start speaking Onödowáʼga꞉ (see what I did there  ), where I would be clueless.

And the problem has, erm, wider implications. I had the chance to meet a top scholar who receives funding from the Pentagon for studying 'alien semantics': There are operations that are possible in theoretical semantics but not found in any natural language, suggesting the restrictions have to do with the wiring of the human brain. Should we ever encounter an extraterrestrial language, we'll be in for a rough ride.

[Huba]

There's suggestion that the pre-strike image is photoshopped. I'm no expert on that, but seem plausible:

 

[Machor]

Russian Su-24M striking a Ukrainian position at super-low altitude, dropping probable FAB-500 bombs retarded with parachutes and with delayed fuzes. I'm curious if the purpose is precision bombing, or survival of the platform:

 

[chris talpas]

Another good video from 'Good Times Bad Times'.  Lots of info covered in this thread but also adds some additional geopolitical analysis. Also has a bit of footage of the Polish T72s

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by chris talpas
Added T72 info

[Fenris]

Imagine if UKR could hit one of these.

 

[dan/california]

56 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's suggestion that the pre-strike image is photoshopped. I'm no expert on that, but seem plausible:

 

Regardless of whether or not the Ukr are playing some photoshop games with with OSINT photo analyst, the thing I keep coming back too is how much a of a difference 155 airburst will make vs 152 point detonation, which seems to be all either side is using to this point. It will just take a LOT less rounds to deal with this type of target. Which means more rounds for the next target, and that much sooner you can displace ahead of the counter-battery if the Russians can even do that at their apparent level of technical expertise.

[akd]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

There's suggestion that the pre-strike image is photoshopped. I'm no expert on that, but seem plausible:

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Regardless of whether or not the Ukr are playing some photoshop games with with OSINT photo analyst, the thing I keep coming back too is how much a of a difference 155 airburst will make vs 152 point detonation, which seems to be all either side is using to this point. It will just take a LOT less rounds to deal with this type of target. Which means more rounds for the next target, and that much sooner you can displace ahead of the counter-battery if the Russians can even do that at their apparent level of technical expertise.

I don't have the link at hand, but today somebody from DoD confirmed that the M777s are already in combat. We should see some evidence in the upcoming days. 

[Huba]

Just now, akd said:

Fair enough  Even if it was a bit enhanced, the way Russians exposed themselves there is just mind-boggling. 

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

There's suggestion that the pre-strike image is photoshopped.

Anything on social media could have been Photoshopped. 

[akd]

Holocaust survivor who devoted her life to building modern Mariupol gives interview after evacuation:

 

I’d prefer to hear the actual intercepts, but interesting:

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by akd

[billbindc]

The absolute best thing you can read right now on the internal dynamics and coup possibilities in Russia right now: https://puck.news/putin-vs-his-oligarchs/?utm_code=julia%40puck.news