How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

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If the above is too much of a read here's what it says ... "we make UAVs and flog them to the military."

To which I would add "we used to sell them for hitting terrorist but we want in the big game".

[womble]

7 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Writing bollox or making UAVs?

Depends if you're writing the script for one of those Russian agitprop talkshows or making a living out of battlespace intel...

[Combatintman]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe but let's for argument sake that Russia pulls back and digs in and claims all lands south of the Dnipro cutting a line to Donetsk - the famous land bridge.  And then that hunk south of the Oskil, so roughly, and for arguments sake: 

By my math, that is an area roughly the same size as Ireland above and beyond the old DNR/LNR and Crimea lines.  Why not just call that, plus Mariupol and be done with it?  Victory, Peace in Our Time...now if anyone mentions it again, they get a free trip to a shallow grave.

I mean the Ukrainians are going to hack away at that but if you need a 9 May "win".

It is untidy but can certainly be sold as a win to the important internal target audiences but Ukraine and the ROW is another matter.  We are certainly living in interesting times.

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Writing bollox or making UAVs?

I am the one writing bollox, very hopeful they are ACTUALLY making UAVs, or at least rebranding ones that actually work, and translating the control systems and manuals into Ukrainian.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

It is untidy but can certainly be sold as a win to the important internal target audiences but Ukraine and the ROW is another matter.  We are certainly living in interesting times.

Considering the Russian military has been throwing up on itself for nearly two months straight now, I think "tidy" is off the menu.

[AlsatianFelix]

52 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

I'm not sure this can be said with 100% confidence, but it's still amazing that it is even something that might be true, given the force disparity at the start of the current invasion. 

 

 

When I said 100 pages ago that at loss/capture rates of March Ukraine would have more tanks than Russia in 18 months I meant the entire stockpile of tanks for both sides. In-country, I suppose, is the more important measure. Still...I am surprised.  

[AlsatianFelix]

Today, the Aerospace Defense Research Institute in Tver Russia had an explosion and burned to the ground. They did Iskander and S-300 (?) research and development.

Also today, the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, the largest producer of chemical solvents in Russia, had a major fire.

Hmmmm.......

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by AlsatianFelix

[Holien]

36 minutes ago, Desertor said:

Watching putler’s right hand clutching the table corner in his last tv images conforts my opinion that he had a brain stroke after the Moskva get lost in sea.

We need to see more to be certain but the left side of his body was more interesting to watch, looked like he had no strength?

He certainly looks in trouble and reminds me of my father who had strokes.

The grip goes so maybe why he was filmed from that angle? 

[Der Zeitgeist]

2 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Today, the Aerospace Defense Research Institute in Tver Russia had an explosion and burned to the ground. They did Iskander and S-300 (?) research and development.

Also today, the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, the largest producer of chemical solvents in Russia, had a major fire.

Hmmmm.......

 

Terrible accidents. 

[Hapless]

One alternative on the political front is that Putin isn't actually in power anymore: that there's been a quiet coup behind the scenes. The new bosses have all the power, but they're keeping him in position to soak up the failure while they try to bring an end to hostilities.

Probably tremendously unlikely, but that video of him talking to Shoigu seems so off. Slouched, unhealthy Putin gripping onto the table for dear life, tapping his foot with his shoulders up by his ears. Shoigu in a suit and not his uniform. The tiny table and the uncomfortable proximity. Looks like the same room that Putin gave his hour long history lesson from just before the war started (the one with the Kremlin screensaver and the array of 70s phones)- but he's not behind the desk in a position of authority here, he's out in front face-to-face with Shoigu.

I mean, I've only seen a short cropped video but it definitely doesn't has the same vibe as the pre-war stuff.

[FancyCat]

I’m thinking insurance scam more than sabotage. If it was sabotage, false flag?

oof, feeling bad for the Russian defense industry, all these videos make terrible selling points. Ukraine should definitely keep their defense industry online, I could see a ton of money being made on those Neptunes. (Taiwan anyone?)

 

[rocketman]

17 minutes ago, Holien said:

We need to see more to be certain but the left side of his body was more interesting to watch, looked like he had no strength?

He certainly looks in trouble and reminds me of my father who had strokes.

The grip goes so maybe why he was filmed from that angle? 

I’m thinking onset of Parkinson. Gripping the table to hide tremors, which typically affect one hand in the first stages of the disease. 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, rocketman said:

I’m thinking onset of Parkinson. Gripping the table to hide tremors, which typically affect one hand in the first stages of the disease. 

He looked reasonably OK during the public event on the stadium, around a month ago. For sure he looks stressed in this today's  Shoigu video, but Parkinson/ stroke/ whatever is a bit too much of a speculation in my opinion:

 

Also regarding the numbers, more BTG inserted into Ukraine

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Today, the Aerospace Defense Research Institute in Tver Russia had an explosion and burned to the ground. They did Iskander and S-300 (?) research and development.

Also today, the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, the largest producer of chemical solvents in Russia, had a major fire.

Hmmmm.......

 

The russians already had some bad luck with accidental fire aboard the Moskva and now that?...what a pity...Their tanks seem to be prone to spontaneous combustion too...

Edited April 21, 2022 by DesertFox

[DesertFox]

 

 

[MikeyD]

I recall after the stadium rally Steve had speculated that Putin was undergoing chemo treatment, judge from his puffy appearance. Also, the cameras notoriously cut away from him in mid-speech, an unusual move.

Edited April 21, 2022 by MikeyD

[Holien]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

but Parkinson/ stroke/ whatever is a bit too much of a speculation in my opinion:

Maybe, let's see some more live meetings with him from today onwards but he certainly looked crap and it was filmed at an interesting angle.

[Desertor]

If his hair fell suddenly is chemo, hand trembling Parkinson, and loss of mobility in half of the body stroke. Hope he dies slowly!

[dan/california]

Was he live at that stadium, or on some sort of piped in video?

 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Holien said:

Maybe, let's see some more live meetings with him from today onwards but he certainly looked crap and it was filmed at an interesting angle.

That's true. It looks like they filmed him from his "bad side" on this video. Either there is no such thing, and he was just grabbing this table out of stress, or this is on purpose. I go with option one, but if anybody feels particularly tinfoilhatty today, this video is a great fodder for conspiracy spotting.

Edit: or maybe it is not stress, maybe he was just so pissed at Shoigu for being a failure, but had to congratulate him for the propaganda  After the video he punched him in the teeth.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[Erwin]

And still we in the west subsidize Russia's war on Ukraine.  Until this trade is stopped there is no reason to be optimistic about the hopes expressed for Russia's implosion:

https://www.worldstopexports.com/us-uranium-imports-by-supplying-country/

https://sports.yahoo.com/us-must-stop-importing-uranium-150024558.html

"Seventeen percent of the uranium used at U.S. nuclear plants is imported from Vladimir Putin's Russia. In fact, half of our nation's uranium imports come from Russia and two of its satellites, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan..."

Also re gas and oil:

"...an opaque market is forming to obscure the origin of that oil. Unlike before Russia invaded Ukraine, oil buyers are worried about the reputational risk of trading crude that is financing a government that Western leaders accuse of war crimes."

"Oil from Russian ports is increasingly being shipped with its destination unknown. In April so far, over 11.1 million barrels were loaded into tankers without a planned route, more than to any country, according to TankerTrackers.com. That is up from almost none before the invasion. One reason to obscure the origin of Russian oil is that countries desperately need the crude to keep economies going and prevent fuel prices from surging even further. But companies and oil middlemen want to trade it quietly, avoiding any blowback for facilitating transactions that in the end provide money for Moscow’s war machine.  The use of the destination unknown label is a sign that the oil is being taken to larger ships at sea and unloaded, analysts and traders said. Russian crude is then mixed with the ship’s cargo, blurring where it came from. This is an old practice that has enabled exports from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Venezuela."

 

 

[kraze]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Was he live at that stadium, or on some sort of piped in video?

 

There are no live broadcasts in Russia. Hence why that "live" video suddenly and abruptly jumped to old fart singer mid-song with putin teleporting back to his bunker.

[Huba]

Comparing the scale of the economies, this is more then the whole US support so far.

 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Agree, however, at this point there is nothing that Russia can do beyond this above.  Russia can not shoot its way out of this larger "loss" with respect to political/diplomatic isolation, western perceptions, actual concrete regional influence or gains in context of Ukraine itself.  That ship sailed about 2 weeks into this thing to be honest.

So all Putin has left is shoring up domestic support and internal power structures aka staying in power.  So we are back to "why do this whole drama, when you can make up whatever end state you like...Vlad?"

 

There is a conversation out there about the end state Putin needs to stay in power and a fear that therein lies the potential for use of nuclear weapons to finish it on terms that Russia can live (sic) with. Personally, I don't see any way in which nuking Kyiv doesn't multiply rather than simplify Russia's problems but given the isolation and opacity of Putin's decision making process it can't be entirely ruled out.  

[kraze]

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3335768/russians_storm_azovstal_advancing_into_continuous_ruins_butusov

Not a surprising non-twist.