How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

I saw a report that Captain Aleksander Chirva, commander of the landing ship Caesar Kunikov (Ropucha-I class) has died in hospital from his injuries.

Any confirmation of this? Would this be from when the Saratov was sunk at Berdyansk, and two other Ropucha class ships were clearly on fire to some degree as they sailed away?

 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

I saw a report that Captain Aleksander Chirva, commander of the landing ship Caesar Kunikov (Ropucha-I class) has died in hospital from his injuries.

Any confirmation of this? Would this be from when the Saratov was sunk at Berdyansk, and two other Ropucha class ships were clearly on fire to some degree as they sailed away?

 

This is Russian source, so this is confirmation. See my post above. Yes, this LLS also was near to "Saratov" and cought fire.

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our General Staff made a statemant that there are signs of Russia launched offensive operaton. They intensified assault actions and shellings and in nearest days will gradually trow in the battle more and more BTGs.

Our twitters reported, Russian after Kreminna turned west and having huge advantage in armor, advance to Lyman town, seizing Zarichne village in 10 km from this town. 

Situation and possible Russian intentions you can see on the map. Maybe Russian efforts from Izium were just distract actions and here we see initial phase of main strike from Kreminna, which in previous week was relatively calm place after our troops pushed back LPR fighters.

I suppose, if the fights around Kreminna lasted three days our and NATO intelligence uncover their plans. So, who asked "where the offensive?", well, maybe it started.  

 

 

Well, here we go.  So on both axes there's wooded areas, that's good.  Does RA have the infantry to clear these areas?  UKR teams could drift into the woods when challenged then come back to ambush follow on, weaker units.  And it's raining, correct?  mud everywhere.  So that should help.  I am optimistic but still nervous.  And the forces from Izyum still face danger of being cut off north of Izyum before they can link up w other pincer. 

Eastern force has lots of wooded and what looks like marshy areas to go through. 

Thanks for this Haiduk.  I hope this turns into more of a Ukraine trap than a RA offensive a few days from now.

[Taranis]

Russian troops already in Zarichne (according to this source) between Sloviansk and Kremina:
 

Ukraine's armed forces command says it sees signs that Russia is beginning its new offensive in eastern Ukraine- Reuters :

 

Russia now has 76 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine now, a slight increase in recent days, a senior U.S. defense official says :

 

Vladimir Putin decorates a brigade accused by kyiv of Boutcha's abuses
The Russian president on Monday named an honorary title for “heroism” to the 64th motorized rifle brigade, which Ukraine has accused of having participated in the abuses committed in Boutcha, near kyiv.

Vladimir Putin signed, according to the Kremlin, a decree granting the “honorary title of “Guard”” to this brigade because of the “heroism and tenacity, determination and courage” of its men.

“The skilful and decisive actions of all personnel during the special military operation in Ukraine are a model of the execution of military duty, courage, determination and high professionalism,” Vladimir Putin wrote to the military. . The Kremlin does not indicate where these men are or have been deployed or specify their missions.

Ukraine has accused the Russian army and in particular the 64th brigade in question of having committed a massacre of civilians in Boutcha, discovered after the withdrawal of Russian soldiers on March 30.

Russia denies it, and for its part accused the Ukrainian authorities and the media judged of having staged the massacre, or the Ukrainian forces of having committed it in order to accuse Moscow of it.

 

Quote

Vladimir Poutine décore une brigade accusée par Kiev des exactions de Boutcha
Le président russe a décerné, lundi, un titre honorifique au titre de « l’héroïsme » à la 64e brigade de fusiliers motorisés, que l’Ukraine a accusé d’avoir participé aux exactions commises à Boutcha, près de Kiev.

Vladimir Poutine a signé, selon le Kremlin, un décret accordant le « titre honorifique de “Garde” » à cette brigade du fait de l’« héroïsme et de la ténacité, la détermination et le courage » de ses hommes.

« Les actions habiles et décisives de tout le personnel lors de l’opération militaire spéciale en Ukraine sont un modèle d’exécution du devoir militaire, de courage, de détermination et de grand professionnalisme », a écrit Vladimir Poutine à l’adresse des militaires. Le Kremlin n’indique pas où ces hommes sont ou ont été déployés ni ne précise leurs missions.

L’Ukraine a accusé l’armée russe et notamment la 64e brigade en question d’avoir commis un massacre de civils à Boutcha, découvert après le retrait des soldats russes le 30 mars.

La Russie dément, et a accusé de son côté les autorités ukrainiennes et les médias occidentaux d’avoir mis en scène le massacre, ou les forces ukrainiennes de l’avoir commis pour en accuser Moscou.

 

[sross112]

Someone posted this elsewhere and asked if the RuAF's planes were made of Styrofoam. This is a picture off google earth of Lipensk air base in Russia. I jumped on google earth and it is indeed from there and there are several more aircraft in pieces like this on the base.

So intel and air guys: is there a logical explanation for this? If not what are we seeing? cannibalized for parts and the rest just left there?

Edited April 18, 2022 by sross112

[DesertFox]

Russian corruption...

 

 

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@The_Capt @Battlefront.com

Our General Staff made a statemant that there are signs of Russia launched offensive operaton. They intensified assault actions and shellings and in nearest days will gradually throw in the battle more and more BTGs.

Our twitters reported, Russian after Kreminna turned west and having huge advantage in armor, advance to Lyman town, seizing Zarichne village in 10 km from this town. 

Situation and possible Russian intentions you can see on the map. Maybe Russian efforts from Izium were just distract actions and here we see initial phase of main strike from Kreminna, which in previous week was relatively calm place after our troops pushed back LPR fighters.

I suppose, if the fights around Kreminna lasted three days our and NATO intelligence uncover their plans. So, who asked "where the offensive?", well, maybe it started.  

 

 

Alright, let's see where this goes.  Could be a poke, jab or all out offensive.  Or the Russians could be feeling around, any indication of what their recon is up to?  That is a weird spot to try and punch through though as it is right through closed terrain with more chokepoints.  Could also be a setup and a suckers pull to shift focus eastward while setting up for the push down from the north. 

[benpark]

Could be they are dealing with that Izium bulge issue by shoring up their left flank. Taking the Lyman/Sviatohirsk path looks like a way to remove the Ukrainian salient there. Not sure what Ukrainian forces are in the area north that could be pocketed (if that is possible). Not much reason as far as on-map population centers to defend. That's partially a rail-line which seems like a change of pace for the Russian side, and this has been a roadway war so far.

There were also reports of Ukrainian attacks on the opposite side of the Russian salient (around Izium). Lots of activity around those two Yin/Yang areas of "control". That also leaves forests in front of the Russians if they take the area in question.

[fireship4]

9 hours ago, mosuri said:

One thing I've been wondering is -- since Stugna-P is laser guided AIUI -- we're seeing very few vids of tanks popping smoke. Don't RF tanks have detectors, are they only facing forward, or is it just operator ineptness?

In CMBS smoke popping and reversing happens the instant someone points a laser a tank's way ... BFC please fix or something

Yes, something I have advocated before is a second look at laser warning systems on tanks in CMBS - it has such a large impact on tactics, and I was unsure whether they were as effective as they are in game.  In light of this, perhaps the next patch should simply switch them off!  It would be a new game...

But back to the main topic.  I haven't much to add, I'll probably post a bunch of links again at some point to useful resources on the war for those that would find it useful. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by fireship4

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

[LukeFF]

Apologies if it's already been posted here (haven't had the chance to read all the new posts yet), but this a very good analysis about what happened to the Moskva. Basically, it came down to gross negligence and nothing to do with the drone distracting the ship's crew:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/analysis-chain-of-negligence-caused-the-loss-of-the-moskva-cruiser/

 

[Bulletpoint]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has bestowed an honorary title on a brigade accused by Ukraine of committing atrocities in the town of Bucha.

A decree signed by Putin gave the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade the title of "Guards" for the "mass heroism and valour, tenacity and courage" of its members.

(BBC)

[LukeFF]

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Someone posted this elsewhere and asked if the RuAF's planes were made of Styrofoam. This is a picture off google earth of Lipensk air base in Russia. I jumped on google earth and it is indeed from there and there are several more aircraft in pieces like this on the base.

So intel and air guys: is there a logical explanation for this? If not what are we seeing? cannibalized for parts and the rest just left there?

If I wanted to make may airforce look stronger than it really was, I'd have dummy and/or unserviceable aircraft everywhere.  Keep the enemy guessing about where the real aircraft were and how many there might be.

That said, I don't know what to make of this picture.  The four planes that are in pieces seem to be deliberately disassembled.  Maybe they were disassembled for road transport and haven't been put back together again?  In which case I presume they are not serviceable.

Scavenging wings for parts is a little odd, though I suppose possible to do.

Steve

[Sandokan]

On a lighter tone. This one about the tractor brigade is fun.

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If I wanted to make may airforce look stronger than it really was, I'd have dummy and/or unserviceable aircraft everywhere.  Keep the enemy guessing about where the real aircraft were and how many there might be.

That said, I don't know what to make of this picture.  The four planes that are in pieces seem to be deliberately disassembled.  Maybe they were disassembled for road transport and haven't been put back together again?  In which case I presume they are not serviceable.

Scavenging wings for parts is a little odd, though I suppose possible to do.

Steve

(also @sross112)

This might be a remnant of CFE verification measures when the treaty was still in force. Destruction of equipment under the treaty could be verified by various means, including on-site inspections but also satellite surveillance. Placing certain parts of equipment in a certain way can allow the other side to verify that a piece has been disassembled.

The same was done with B-52s at AMARC, which had their wings and fuselage cut in a treaty-prescribed way so that the other side could check this with satellite imagery.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Conventional_Armed_Forces_in_Europe

Edited April 18, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting piece of news...

 

[billbindc]

 

It begins. 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, sross112 said:

 I'm going a little dark here, but as for the Crimea maybe Ukraine takes it back and then trades all the Russian transplants for the kidnapped citizens of Ukraine. Again, dark politics of basically hostage trading but it would be a good way to get the people they want back and get rid of the people they don't want without lowering themselves to the cleansing activities like Russia. 

Sorry mate, there is no way that does NOT end up as 'ethnic cleansing'. And that's just about the worst direction Ukraine can possibly take postwar.

Remember, well over half of Ukrainians have some form of Russian ties, ethnic, linguistic or marriage. Especially in the East. You want a huge chunk of your own citizenry looking nervously over their shoulders wondering if some dirtbag will denounce them to take their home?

Anyway, Ukraine is like Russia, a declining birthrate country. Who will resettle those 'cleansed' areas? Turkish migrants?

.... I would suggest the reverse. One great way to defang Russia is to brain drain it -- offer visas to their young technorati.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

My question is how far will it go before being stopped? My opinion is it will be stopped at the major cities the latest. Ukraine has land to trade for momentum.

According to many analysists this attack is too early. The Russians are not sufficiently prepared. Attack will be lots of feeding units to the front piece meal.

Might even be some silly victory day deadline that caused this.

[akd]

40 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

This might be a remnant of CFE verification measures when the treaty was still in force. Destruction of equipment under the treaty could be verified by various means, including on-site inspections but also satellite surveillance. Placing certain parts of equipment in a certain way can allow the other side to verify that a piece has been disassembled

This is an active air base, not a boneyard.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

@The_Capt @Battlefront.com

Our General Staff made a statemant that there are signs of Russia launched offensive operaton. They intensified assault actions and shellings and in nearest days will gradually throw in the battle more and more BTGs.

Our twitters reported, Russian after Kreminna turned west and having huge advantage in armor, advance to Lyman town, seizing Zarichne village in 10 km from this town. 

Situation and possible Russian intentions you can see on the map. Maybe Russian efforts from Izium were just distract actions and here we see initial phase of main strike from Kreminna, which in previous week was relatively calm place after our troops pushed back LPR fighters.

I suppose, if the fights around Kreminna lasted three days our and NATO intelligence uncover their plans. So, who asked "where the offensive?", well, maybe it started. 

It is difficult for me to believe that a buildup of forces capable of piercing the line to the east of Slovyansk wasn't detected by someone.  Maybe this explains the counter attacks by Ukraine in the last day or two in that particular area?  Trying to throw it off balance or, perhaps, provoke it into attacking early?

It would seem that at the moment the Russians have a single attack route with the near term goal of taking Slovyansk.  But I doubt that is the way it will stay.  Forces in the Izyum area will likely do something more than sit around.  Especially because, right now, the direction of attack against Slovyansk is from the front where it is most prepared.

The Russians might turn south, however the terrain doesn't seem to be good for this until reaching Slovyansk.  Though Road T-05-13 does head into the rear of Ukrainian forces Lysychansk and there's been quite a lot of fighting in Popasna to the south.

Detailed thoughts to follow this one.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Mykolaiv under intensive shelling with heavy MLRS. Impacts already during 40 minutes with small breaks. Russians fires from Kherson area

Reportedly heavy bomb dropped from Tu-22M3 on Azovstal

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Mykolaiv under intensive shelling with heavy MLRS. Impacts already during 40 minutes with small breaks. Russians fires from Kherson area

Reportedly heavy bomb dropped from Tu-22M3 on Azovstal

Looks like the Russians are sticking with what they know and love, massed dumb fires and the good old frontal.  COAs and nuance, what were we thinking?

[Battlefront.com]

Now that the attack is under way, what's it going to do?  Here's my stab at it:

Phase 1

General attacks along the entire line to tie down Ukrainian forces, confuse them as to main points of effort, and to hopefully create unexpected opportunities.

Three specific points of attack with the following short term objectives:

• Izyum -> Slovyansk and Barinkove
• Kreminna -> Slovyansk
• Popasna -> Bakhmut

Izyum and Kreminna attacks converge on Slovyansk from two directions. 

The attack towards Barinkove would greatly complicate defending Slovyansk as that is a direct supply route.

Popasna attempts to break through on its own.  Possibly this is just a means of putting pressure/distracting Ukrainian efforts to hold Slovyansk.

Desired outcome -> seal off Ukrainian forces east of Izyum into a pocket and establish jumping off points for Phase 2

 

Phase 2

The forces in Slovyansk drive south along Highway M-03 towards Bakhmut which, optimally, will already be under pressure from attacks out of Popasna.  Even if the Popasna attack is initially hindered, pressure on Bakhmut from the east would make it more difficult for the Ukrainian defenders to also hold from the north.

A secondary attack force would head down to Kramatorsk along H-20 (only a few KM distant) to tie things up there and shield Slovyansk from counter attack.

Desired outcome -> pocket all forces from Lysychansk to Popasna

 

Phase 3

Drive south from Izyum on an axis further westward in order to link up with forces coming from Donetsk City - Velyka Novosilka line.  Where they meet up is not relevant, but taking out M-04 is obviously important.

Desired outcome -> full control over Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, destruction/surrounding of large amounts of Ukrainian forces, raise doubts in Ukraine's mind that it can hold the new line.

 

If they achieve all of this they have the preconditions Putin needs to try and end the war.

Steve