How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Rocket artillery delivered from Czech Republic to Ukraine:

 

[Battlefront.com]

I think this is a new one.  Major Martyushev Alexei Prokopievich, no unit specified:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

15 minutes ago, Hister said:

Been away from the forum a while now. So the North collapsed as Steve and some others predicted. What is the situation in the East and South?

What are Steve's (and others) predictions for the war now?

Well, you got some back reading to do, mate!

[Fenris]

18 minutes ago, Hister said:

Been away from the forum a while now. So the North collapsed as Steve and some others predicted. What is the situation in the East and South? Will it collapse too or are Russian logistics on par now there?

Reading Russian attack is imminent in the East - is that true or is this BS like imminent attack on Kiev was that media was promoting until it wasn't?

Are Ukrainians waiting for the Russian attack and will they counterattack then? 

What are Steve's (and others) predictions for the war now?

To get the campaign ribbon you have to read all 500 pages.  Good luck.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, chris talpas said:

I love the irony/synchronicity of the postage stamp release and the successful attack on the Moskva 

Black sea humor

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, Hister said:

Been away from the forum a while now.

Welcome back!

36 minutes ago, Hister said:

So the North collapsed as Steve and some others predicted.

Others predicted it too   But yeah, I called that one pretty early.  Putin should have pulled them back a couple of weeks earlier, but... breaking up is hard to do.

36 minutes ago, Hister said:

What is the situation in the East and South? Will it collapse too or are Russian logistics on par now there?

Knife's edge.  For now they aren't capable of offensive action on any large scale, but they don't appear ready to fold up their tents and go home yet.

The East has been a constant series of failed Russian company (ish) sized attacks which have resulted in 20-50% losses for no gain in many cases.  They are running out of cannon fodder so they are filling gaps in their lines with a hodge-podge of hastily conscripted men from DLPR, low quality units scavenged from all over Russia, Chechen national guard, and the remains of the forces that had been north of Kharkiv.

In the South there's a line north of Mariupol that seems to be held by minimal forces on the Ukrainian side with no significant moves by the Russians, so it's presumed they aren't very strong either.  North of Kherson, on the other side of the Dnepr, there is what looks to be a slow moving advance by Ukrainian light infantry made up of volunteers and guard units.  The Russians gave up some ground a few days ago but not much seems to have changed hands since.  There is some active pressure by Ukrainians near Kherson, but not much from the Russians (a failed small scale attack was crushed a few days ago).

Mariupol... a large group of Marines broke through the Russian lines and joined up with Azov at the steel works.  They are low on ammo, food, and water but they are determined to keep fighting.  The Russian losses in that city have got to be massive.

36 minutes ago, Hister said:

Reading Russian attack is imminent in the East - is that true or is this BS like imminent attack on Kiev was that media was promoting until it wasn't?

Pretty much everybody, including us here, thinks that Russia *must* try a large offensive to take (at least) the rest of Donetsk.  There's not many options for such a move and it's probable that Ukraine will be able to smash it up pretty good when it starts.  Which could be within days or weeks.  Theoretically they should wait weeks until more forces are rebuilt, but that just gives Ukraine more time to prepare.  So really unclear which way Russia will go with it.

36 minutes ago, Hister said:

Are Ukrainians waiting for the Russian attack and will they counterattack then? 

Yes, largely that seems to be the case.  I think Ukraine wants to make sure it's not caught in the middle of something when the Russians go for broke.  Ukraine likely can't handle two major ops at once.

36 minutes ago, Hister said:

What are Steve's (and others) predictions for the war now?

My view is Russia's offensive will decide the fate of the military aspect of this war.  Best case for Russia is that they manage to get the rest of Donetsk and kill a bunch of Ukrainians in the process.  Worst case is they won't do much of anything except put more demands on the makers of zinc coffins back in Mother Russia.  *EITHER WAY* this is likely Russia's last possibility of a large attack in the next few months.  Even a successful attack is going to drain away what little remains of Russia's offensive potential.

It is expected that after Russia gets the rest of Donetsk it will try to freeze the conflict for a period of time.  I doubt Ukraine will agree to that.  So then Russia will sit in its positions as Ukraine's reserves and new military aid gets brought into the battle, then it will be a daily grinding down of Russian forces.  At some point Russia's will to fight will collapse.  Much sooner if the battle for Donetsk goes as poorly as I suspect it will.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

You take your pleasures rather sadly, brother, do you not?

 

Guess I do. Not proud of it. But this is war against an enemy that is far from honorable. And you only win a war by killing your enemy. I'm not a sadist, but the higher the price the Russians have to pay, the sooner this war will be over. But I understand your point, just don't share it.

I wish there's something we could do for those Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Mariopol. That's where my compassion lies. According to the mayor there the Russians are cremating the bodies of civilians there, to wipe out the traces of more war crimes. Hard to believe for a civilised person in the West, sipping his morning coffee.

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Welcome back!

Others predicted it too   But yeah, I called that one pretty early.  Putin should have pulled them back a couple of weeks earlier, but... breaking up is hard to do.

Knife's edge.  For now they aren't capable of offensive action on any large scale, but they don't appear ready to fold up their tents and go home yet.

The East has been a constant series of failed Russian company (ish) sized attacks which have resulted in 20-50% losses for no gain in many cases.  They are running out of cannon fodder so they are filling gaps in their lines with a hodge-podge of hastily conscripted men from DLPR, low quality units scavenged from all over Russia, Chechen national guard, and the remains of the forces that had been north of Kharkiv.

In the South there's a line north of Mariupol that seems to be held by minimal forces on the Ukrainian side with no significant moves by the Russians, so it's presumed they aren't very strong either.  North of Kherson, on the other side of the Dnepr, there is what looks to be a slow moving advance by Ukrainian light infantry made up of volunteers and guard units.  The Russians gave up some ground a few days ago but not much seems to have changed hands since.  There is some active pressure by Ukrainians near Kherson, but not much from the Russians (a failed small scale attack was crushed a few days ago).

Mariupol... a large group of Marines broke through the Russian lines and joined up with Azov at the steel works.  They are low on ammo, food, and water but they are determined to keep fighting.  The Russian losses in that city have got to be massive.

Pretty much everybody, including us here, thinks that Russia *must* try a large offensive to take (at least) the rest of Donetsk.  There's not many options for such a move and it's probable that Ukraine will be able to smash it up pretty good when it starts.  Which could be within days or weeks.  Theoretically they should wait weeks until more forces are rebuilt, but that just gives Ukraine more time to prepare.  So really unclear which way Russia will go with it.

Yes, largely that seems to be the case.  I think Ukraine wants to make sure it's not caught in the middle of something when the Russians go for broke.  Ukraine likely can't handle two major ops at once.

My view is Russia's offensive will decide the fate of the military aspect of this war.  Best case for Russia is that they manage to get the rest of Donetsk and kill a bunch of Ukrainians in the process.  Worst case is they won't do much of anything except put more demands on the makers of zinc coffins back in Mother Russia.  *EITHER WAY* this is likely Russia's last possibility of a large attack in the next few months.  Even a successful attack is going to drain away what little remains of Russia's offensive potential.

It is expected that after Russia gets the rest of Donetsk it will try to freeze the conflict for a period of time.  I doubt Ukraine will agree to that.  So then Russia will sit in its positions as Ukraine's reserves and new military aid gets brought into the battle, then it will be a daily grinding down of Russian forces.  At some point Russia's will to fight will collapse.  Much sooner if the battle for Donetsk goes as poorly as I suspect it will.

Steve

About Kherson area, if someone doesn't know it, I recently see that it seems the 14 Mec Brigade (previously near Kiev) was redeployed in the Kherson area (in the 80 Mec (Mot?) Brigade area)

Good sum up by the way Steve !

Edited April 14, 2022 by Taranis

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Since everyone in this thread seems to be talking about game dev again, when are we going to get a new line in the mission results screen? Killed, wounded, destroyed, $ cost for ordinance?  

We'll get it when people finally learn the difference between ordnance and ordinance. 

[TheVulture]

Bridge destroyed near Izyum with a few Russian vehicles taken out in the process:

https://t.me/verkhovnaradaukrainy/16654

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think this is a new one.  Major Martyushev Alexei Prokopievich, no unit specified:

 

got him earlier today,

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Bridge destroyed near Izyum with a few Russian vehicles taken out in the process:

https://t.me/verkhovnaradaukrainy/16654

 

Izyum. For me the most likely and most important point of gravity in the coming offensive.

[G.I. Joe]

7 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Folks here haven't played CM?  Didn't know that.  Welcome!  And note that it's a realistic military simulation -- meaning bad guys try to destroy your forces and your men don't have any healing powers once sufficiently wounded, or killed.  Like in real life.  Winning happens only one way: through the use of real life proper tactics and combined arms.  Losing, unfortunately, happens lots of ways!   Bad luck, bad decisions, mud, soft sand, lucky enemy shots are all part of the action. 

This aint Assault Squad or company of heroes. 

I started on the modern titles a few years ago after some years in CM-WW2.  What fantastic fun and intellectual challenges.  Modern weapons systems are crazy deadly, crazy fast, and crazy in variety.

^What he said! Having said that, my own CM experience level is very much at the beginner end of the spectrum. I bought all the WWII titles (CM1 on gog.com and CM2 direct from Battlefront) over the course of 2019 but work and parenthood have left me little time for gaming of any description. Wouldn't feel right about buying CMBS until this war is over, but I did pick up CMCW recently to support the team...

And welcome to my fellow newcomers...I've had a lurker account here for a few years but these discussions finally drew me out of the shadows. I meant to start off with a tip of the hat post like this as others have done, but ended up chiming in a few times and it just snowballed from there...apologies for the lack of manners.

I will echo what others have said: This thread has become my go-to source for news and analysis on the current conflict, the variety of experience and expertise here is quite remarkable. @Battlefront.com and @The_Capt have definitely earned all the accolades, along with many of the other contributors.

And of course, a special thanks to @Haiduk and everyone else contributing from Ukraine. Anything I can say in these terrible times would feel utterly inadequate, so I'll leave it at a heartfelt stay safe and stay strong. Hopefully better times are ahead soon...

[Taranis]

https://t.me/rian_ru/158691

Propaganda : "Secretary of security council of Belarus warns of provocations from Ukraine to get Belarus involved in the war"

Could it be that Belarus is trying to attract attention (eventually launch raids) by using this kind of casus belli to divert supplies from the Izium sector and leave as many as possible in the kyiv sector?

and in the same kind last night :
"Russian military shot today at Ukrainian border point near Hremyach village in Chernihiv region with small arms and grenade launchers"

Edited April 14, 2022 by Taranis

[chuckdyke]

We are in WW3 whether we like it or not. 

 

[panzermartin]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

the point was more that they'd fail just like the rest of their crap

I think their missile tech is the cream of the crop. Even NASA relies on them. So, less likely to malfunction than their subpar land or navy forces I guess. 

Stop taking out their ships and conventional army before it's too late

Edited April 14, 2022 by panzermartin

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I think their missile tech is crop of the cream. Even NASA relies on them. So, less likely to malfunction than their subpar land or navy forces I guess. 

Stop taking out their ships and conventional army before it's too late

Great, so mighty USSR rocket genius now being competitive capitalist overlord Musk or Bezos?

 

[panzermartin]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Great, so mighty USSR rocket genius now being competitive capitalist overlord Musk or Bezos?

 

Haha good one. Probably with the all Russian ban, not sure what will happen with the rockets.

https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/3/22959691/russia-roscosmos-rocket-engines-ula-northrop-grumman-rd-180-181

[Huba]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Can you imagine Russia deciding to use a tac nuke in Ukraine and having it fail to detonate?  Oh boy would that create problems for everybody.  All the strategic implications of an actual detonation but without the effects that gets everybody upset.  I can't even imagine how that would be handled.

Even more problematic is if a tac nuke was so unstable that it went off prior to reaching it's target.  Blowing up en route to the launch site, detonating in mid air over Russian territory, etc.  I have NO IDEA how possible something like this might be from a technical side, so maybe the risk is effectively zero.  But the dud thing is for sure possible.

Note that any nuke detonating within Russia's borders will be blamed on someone other than Russian incompetence.

Steve

The obvious solution to this is to have few ready and if one fails, immediately launch another in the same area. Nobody would ever know of the failure.

[Hister]

Thank you Steve for the detailed answer! Much appreciated. Am in no position to follow the thread due to current work load so knowing what you guys think will most probably happen there is a boon. 

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

The obvious solution to this is to have few ready and if one fails, immediately launch another in the same area. Nobody would ever know of the failure.

This Organization Will Not Tolerate Failure!

 

(sorry, last one I promise)

[Taranis]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

The obvious solution to this is to have few ready and if one fails, immediately launch another in the same area. Nobody would ever know of the failure.

Or using systems like the RS-24 LARS (SS-X-29). The pros in bonus is to say "look how hightech our nuclear weaponry is (with the MIRV (Multiple Independently targeted Reentry Vehicle))". In the manner they done it with the hypersonic missile (Kinzhal), even it is not confirmed it was one. The cons are the vehicle could be geolocalized but may could be protected with a mass S-400 area ?

Note : In a perfect world, where all russian equipment do what it was pretend to do

Edited April 14, 2022 by Taranis

[Huba]

Sorry, but this is a strategic system, no way they'd use it for a tactical strike. Unless the goal is to obliterate whole Kiyv and the surrounding cities. Free-fall bombs  or short range missiles would be the weapon of choice I think.

Given what we all seem to think about Russian strategic situation at the moment, one might think that opening the offensive with few tactical nukes is the only option that would actually allow them to achieve success. There are no hints that suggest they might be preparing for this, but how much preparations would you really need for limited use of let's say 10 warheads? I'd like to keep the element of surprise too if I were intending to actually use them on the battlefield. 

Russia's reputation would be in shatters after something like this, but it is ruined already. And they would be feared, this seems to be important for them. I doubt NATO would retaliate in kind, or even entered direct conventional confrontation against an enemy with proven willingness to use nuclear weapons. 

I don't want to be a scaremonger, but the world never seen a situation like this, where nuclear power's army is about to be badly beaten in a peer-on-peer conflict, with prospects of the enemy attacking it's territory (Crimea) in the aftermath. AFAIK Russian nuclear doctrine allows for use of nukes in such case.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Huba

[Holien]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Russia's reputation would be in shatters after something like this, but it is ruined already. I doubt NATO would retaliate in kind, or even entered direct conventional confrontation against an enemy with proven willingness to use nuclear weapons. 

That approach would cross a red line which would mean all out war with Russia. NATO and the world would not be able to accept it so I seriously hope they don't but hey Putler is beyond sane at the moment and maybe he does not care about the world his daughters and grandchildren will live in?

I think and hope there might be enough in the Russian military to understand that their children and grandchildren will suffer if they cross this line.

Humans are hardwired to procreate and ultimately that like other animals is the main desire to ensure their offspring survive and prosper.

Perhaps I am being naive but I hope reason prevails....

[Holien]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

with prospects of the enemy entering it's territory (Crimea) in the aftermath.

Hmmm I would think many would disagree that it's their territory, but I presume you mean Russia believe they will lose it after taking it illegally...