How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[amadeupname]

5 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Rough guess from a n00b in this community: as @dan/california alluded to, Battlefront has contracts from actual militaries, and those probably just ramped up a little bit in recent weeks. I would hazard a guess that a professional simulation tool for the Pentagon or another NATO or SEATO Ministry of Defence might just take priority over a World War II game for us history nerds...

IIRC they have 1 contract with the British. That's it. If the workload is ramping up like yall say it is then it surprises me that they're even talking to us to begin with.

[Taranis]

Russian buildup forces near Kherson :
 

 

[TheVulture]

Deleted - duplicate info

Edited April 13, 2022 by TheVulture

[Machor]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russians also have a history of throwing in the towel when it's had too much:

• Russo-Japanese War

I'm tempted to revisit the Russo-Japanese War - hopefully not going too much OT - not least because @Kinophile has also been musing about it, and @LongLeftFlank has posted the racist cartoons that preceded the Russian defeat. Certainly, the fact that Russia provoked that war with nothing but racist hubris, and got dealt a decisive defeat that lead to quasi-regime change, invites comparisons with the current situation in Ukraine. However, that leads us to the teleiosis [I canz use big wordz] of the Russian defeat: Tsushima. What I find most fascinating about Tsushima isn't the fact that an early industrial fleet got obliterated after sailing halfway through the globe, but that the 2nd Pacific Squadron was ordered to sail forth from Madagascar AFTER Port Arthur had already fallen: They were supposed to sail to Vladivostok and continue the fight against the Japanese from there, but... If you've played Norm Koger's Distant Guns, you'll know that this was a hopeless strategy. The Russian leadership at the time gambled away their nation's decades-long gains in becoming a naval power for a face-saving operation that would not have brought back Port Arthur, and Russia gave up its international status as a naval power after Tsushima.

TL;DR: Russians are bad losers, even if they like to recast this in their movies as being 'hard learners' *cough* The Barber of Siberia *cough*. It's one thing that the forum and a host of experts have concluded that Russia has been defeated in Ukraine; it's another thing when Russians themselves will be able to acknowledge that.

[Maquisard manqué]

Re US arms shipments, it’s good to see heavy stuff making the bill of materials but the reaper drones thing seems very far fetched. If anything needs extensive training and infrastructure it’s aircraft, even drones. I guess the only way it works in the short term is US pilots flying from the base in Nebraska (or wherever). Otherwise this sounds like speculation by the companies themselves: sure, we can provide expensive weapon systems… at US tax payer cost.

[Der Zeitgeist]

If anyone these days is asking himself "What the hell is wrong with Germany, anyway?", this article from the New York Times describes the problems pretty well:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/germany-russia-ukraine-war.html?smid=url-share

Non-paywall version: https://web.archive.org/web/20220413073717/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/germany-russia-ukraine-war.html

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

If anyone these days is asking himself "What the hell is wrong with Germany, anyway?", this article from the New York Times describes the problems pretty well:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/germany-russia-ukraine-war.html?smid=url-share

Non-paywall version: https://web.archive.org/web/20220413073717/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/germany-russia-ukraine-war.html

This:

“The real Zeitenwende,” said Ms. Puglierin, “will come when we remake our model for a future of competition with both Russia and China and realize that every dependency can be used against us.”

[Aragorn2002]

17 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

If anyone these days is asking himself "What the hell is wrong with Germany, anyway?", this article from the New York Times describes the problems pretty well:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/germany-russia-ukraine-war.html?smid=url-share

Non-paywall version: https://web.archive.org/web/20220413073717/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/germany-russia-ukraine-war.html

Germany needs more time. You can't expect a Lion to behave like a Lion after you've taught it to behave like a lamb.

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This:

“The real Zeitenwende,” said Ms. Puglierin, “will come when we remake our model for a future of competition with both Russia and China and realize that every dependency can be used against us.”

That is still a very long road to go for the germans. I wonder if they even manage to get rid of the energy dependency from russia within the next 3 years let alone the economic dependency from the chinese market. Let´s see what happens.

Edited April 13, 2022 by DesertFox

[Aragorn2002]

13 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

That is still a very long road to go for the germans. I wonder if they even manage to get rid of the energy dependency from russia within the next 3 years let alone the economic dependency from the chinese market. Let´s see what happens.

Perhaps everybody should realize that the survival and future of the EU is for a large part dependent on the German economy AND German money. Without a strong German economy, no EU.  It's bitter, but we need Russian gas for a couple of years more. Those politically responsible for this outrage should be held responsible though. This is the legacy of Merkel.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Der Zeitgeist]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Perhaps everybody should realize that the survival and future of the EU is for a large part dependent on the German economy AND German money. It's bitter, but we need Russian gas for a couple of years more. Those politically responsible for this disaster should be held responsible though. This is the legacy of Merkel.

What I find maddening right now is the lack of imagination and flexibility in the SPD especially. Sure, we can't completely cut ourselves off from Russian gas for a while, everyone INCLUDING Ukraine understands that by now and doesn't expect us to completely tank the EU economy.

What Ukraine does expect is to make up for that with increased weapons shipments. It should have been a no-brainer to be prepared for that and have a few attractive options ready (which the German military industry is already offering).

[Huba]

3 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

I'm sure there are people here who know more about these things than I do, but the short answer is that the anti-missile defences on the Slava, Krivak II and Admiral Grigorovich (Krivak IV) class ships in the Black Sea Fleet are quite capable, but not comparable to AEGIS (highly integrated computerized fire control with a phased-array radar). I'd say 72 Harpoons probably could destroy the main striking power of the Black Sea Fleet but would hesitate to suggest that they inevitably would.

Thinking back to my days of playing Harpoon Classic, I'd guess an attacker would probably allocate 10-20 for the Slava (which would probably take at least 2-3 hits to sink), 5-10 per Krivak IV and 5 per Krivak II (one hit would probably at least disable a frigate), but none of that is based on any actual doctrine or calculation and it may all be overkill. The high end of those numbers doesn't leave much throw weight for taking on patrol boats and amphibs, but it does suggest that the article's claims are credible.

More to the point, it raises the prospect of the Black Sea Fleet being taken out of play by the deterrent value of the Harpoons. Warships are very hard to replace (probably all but impossible for Russia under the current sanctions) and the Russian Navy might be feeling risk averse after watching the land war.

Here's my take on the impact those AShMs will make, first a question though: do we know for sure that the missiles that will be delivered are indeed Harpoons? I heard many conflicting news, mentioning basically any missile at UKs disposal, starting with sea versions of Brimstone, up to Harpoons. I don't recall any confirmation being made. Anyway, assuming those are heavy missiles able to take out major surface combatants, not only patrol boats, and are delivered in large enough quantity( like 72 mentioned here), I thing that's what gonna happen:

- the potential landing around Odessa or in Budjak is out of the question, nobody's going to even think of risking that. Not that it was a viable option earlier anyway. What changes is that Ukraine can now reassign some of the anti invasion forces to different tasks, likely operations around Kherson.

- those missiles are too short ranged unfortunately to be a threat to Russian base in Sevastopol, you'd need at least 300 km range for that. Russian fleet still rules the high (black) seas and can launch remaining Kalibrs with impunity, no big impact here.

- now for the first interesting possibility. IF at some points Ukrainians are able to fight their way back to Sea of Azov shores, it means that it as a whole is denied to Russians more or less. No more supplying it's forces by the sea. On top of this, the whole Volga- Black Sea inland route would be closed to merchant traffic. This is really huge, makes you understand a bit why Russians are so insisting on the land bridge to Crimea. The Kerch bridghe won't be at risk though in my opinion. Even it was in range, Harpoons are way too small of a weapon to damage it sufficiently.

- the biggest potential for interesting things to happen lies however in fact that with Harpoons guarding the coast, Russians won't be able to do a close blockade of Odessa and whole Ukrainian Black Sea coast. We can discuss how many Harpoons would it take to hit Slava or Krivak etc, but I don't think that Black Sea Fleet would even risk their ships at all loitering in range of those missiles all the time. They will no longer be able to stop and board ships going from Romanian to Ukrainian territorial waters. If they want to keep the blockade up, they would have to outright attack those ships with AShMs from their fleet or from airplanes. Or by submarines. They can do it technically, but this approach has strong vibes of "Unlimited Underwater Warfare" of WW2, and is horrible from PR perspective.
This is the matter of greatest importance to Ukraine, as right now their economy is strangled by inability to export it's goods. A week ago there was supposed to be 25000 train cars waiting along the UE border, full of export goods. I see them trying to run the blockade. We might soon see some actual naval warfare.

Edit: There's still the question of sea mines floating around. Ukraine might have tough time trying to sweep those already emplaced, and Russians can continue mining operations from aircraft/ submarines.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

What I find maddening right now is the lack of imagination and flexibility in the SPD especially. Sure, we can't completely cut ourselves off from Russian gas for a while, everyone INCLUDING Ukraine understands that by now and doesn't expect us to completely tank the EU economy.

What Ukraine does expect is to make up for that with increased weapons shipments. It should have been a no-brainer to be prepared for that and have a few attractive options ready (which the German military industry is already offering).

But you and I both know how sensitive that subject is with regard to history. I agree with you, but the Germans are coming from far. Very far. I'm sure they will get there, but first need to find other suppliers of energy, to keep at least the economy going. Let's not forget this war has just begun. Germany is resourceful enough to find a balance.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

It still takes six weeks to retrain a T72 tanker for a Leopard 2. T72 it is for the Ukrainians it has a terrific punch but a glass jaw. Hungary is currently switching from T72s to Leopard 2s the process takes well into 2023. This war is a nightmare for the greenies, back to coal and uranium.  

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

It still takes six weeks to retrain a T72 tanker for a Leopard 2. T72 it is for the Ukrainians it has a terrific punch but a glass jaw. Hungary is currently switching from T72s to Leopard 2s the process takes well into 2023. This war is a nightmare for the greenies, back to coal and uranium.  

Good point. Besides we need those Leopard 2s ourselves now. It would be foolish to send our best weapons to Ukraine, while we may need them ourselves in a couple of months. Harsh, but true. Apart from that Germany and the Netherlands did already sent (mainly German) weapons to Ukraine and will continue to do so. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Good point.

Thanks Australia is switching from the present Abrams to this one M1A2 SEPv3, there is more involved than just changing over. 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[panzermartin]

It wasn't a german initiative to push things in the East and ignite the mess we are in today. They are certainly not happy, they have deep bonds with Russia. It was Nuland who said on the phone f*** the EU. 

And if it's WW3, Europe will pay the price again and the ones that lead the situation across the Atlantic will once again thrive over our ruins. Does Germany really want to get dragged by US and UK, the centuries old imperialists that they were always at war with and burned their cities to the ground? And if this happens , they will have to first clear from their memory the last time they marched eastwards

 

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Given the bad state of Ukraine army in 2014 and the defeat in Donbas I wonder why Putin didn't attempt to reach Kiev back then.  

Russia conducted hybrid warfare. On initial stage they have a plan to create "people republics" throughout whole Ukraine with support of local "5th column" or at least on territories of so-called "Novorossia". Putin's goal in that time was not "demiliatarization", but "federaliozation" of Ukraine in turning in again in Russia's sattelite. The war is the continuation of politics by other means. Of course, in March 2014 together with Crimea, Russian troops could almost without significant resistance reach to L'viv and Uzhhorod, but this didn't correspond to Putin intentions.

Like now in 2022, then in 2014 he believed, that "russian-speaking population, opressed by Maidan junta" just would overthrown "nationalists power", for this need only money and agents, who just set fire anf lead - corruption, helpless and pro-Russian moods among authorities and force structures would be do other job. But great surprise for Putin became total fail of these plans, especially in pro-Russian Odesa, when despite police actually took a side of pro-Russian forces, pro-Ukrainan self-organized forces decided a fate of the city in violent street clashes. In other cities pro-Russian elements was too inert to do something, so they could win only in part of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with support of southands of Russian "tourists", which came to participate in meetings. 

So, when our troops started ATO and "republics" turned out on the verge of elimination, Putin changed own plans and conducted limited invasion - only in order to force Ukraine to sign agreement on own terms, but not in order to conquer all Ukraine. Alas, they could do this, because of strategical mistakes in conducting of ATO, when part of troops were placed on the border and suffered big losses not so in personnel, but more in equipment and because of Poroshenko didn't want to fight, hoping only on force of agreements and that West would make all job insead him.

Putin expected, Zelenskyi, having reputation of "moderate pro-Russian guy" would change politic of Ukraine and Russia would take Ukraine back in own sphere of influence, but this didn't happened. Putin had no more time to wait for implementation of his sick neo-empire ambitions in diplomacy way. He is probably terminally ill  with cancer, so he wanted to have a time to see "crash of the West domination" and eliminationon of Ukraine, hated by them, like a main destructor of USSR and "Russian world" conception.   

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Germany needs more time. You can't expect a Lion to behave like a Lion after you've taught it to behave like a lamb.

You will never be a lion when you are strong with the weak and weak with the strong.

[Combatintman]

12 hours ago, Huba said:

In light of the discussion above it looks like it's hardly possible to hide your forces, but I'd think that until those start moving, you can't fully predict how are they going to be used and plan accordingly, you have to make some assumptions. 

What I was wondering is if it is possible to achieve some surprise on this level. Let's say that the Russian northern group of forces around Izyum doesn't push south at all, instead going west trying to encircle Kharkiv (not saying that this particular scenario is realistic, just an example, probably on a lesser scale too). Does this kind of thinking make sense at all ?

We call them assessments in the trade and yes it is possible to achieve surprise.  There will always be gaps in coverage and there is the issue of sorting out the wheat from the chaff and then getting that recognized picture to the people who need the information.  Additionally the vehicles do not necessarily have to start moving to be able to work out the Courses of Action available.  It is fairly easy to narrow down the courses of action using processes such Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and once you narrow those down, you can task your ISR to look into areas where they might travel and when they might travel through their areas.  Ideally you cover areas where the enemy has to make a decision, called a Decision Point in the trade and if you get it right, you end up well ahead of the enemy's' Decision-Action cycle which allows you to trigger counter actions or strikes as necessary.

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, Fernando said:

You will never be a lion when you are strong with the weak and weak with the strong.

Exactly! A certain Olli once said "we need more eggs"...

[Aragorn2002]

34 minutes ago, Fernando said:

You will never be a lion when you are strong with the weak and weak with the strong.

In which regard is Germany strong with the weak?

[Ts4EVER]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

In which regard is Germany strong with the weak?

Just look at how past German governments treated Greece and other countries hit by the 2008 crisis.

[Fernando]

14 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

In which regard is Germany strong with the weak?

Exactly what Ts4EVER said: Just look at how past German governments treated Greece and other countries hit by the 2008 crisis. ... and whenever their economic interests are at stake, I would add

Edited April 13, 2022 by Fernando