How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BornGinger]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Russia truly went to hell IMHO when they lost their Jews...

Wasn't it the jews that had been put into positions to control the different Soviet production facilities and factories that later on stole them from the Russian people and became the oligarcs? And if you're talking before the Bolshevism, wasn't it the jews that were 80% of the Bolshevik/Leninist-Stalinist Communist leadership and stole the freedom, factories and production facilities from the people although the communists talked about the workers' equality?

If you're talking these days with new sanctions to let the Russian people suffer for what the oligarcs and Russian government have cooked up together, I'm sure the oligarc jews still are in the background although some of them might have went to other countries on a long vacation.

So I don't think Russia ever lost their jews.

[BornGinger]

17 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

And how would that happen exactly?

The usual way money and weapon disappear when politicians and military officers get their hands on them.

[kraze]

29 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Kraze. I know it doesn’t suit your own apparently racist credo but read a bit more history please. Or stop posting your racist crap about all Russians being evil. I am not sure why it’s getting a  free pass here.

War criminals are war criminals and the Russian army and govt is clearly barbaric. It’s treatment of Ukrainian civilians is inhuman, unlawful and evil. It’s assault on Ukraine is equally illegal and morally wrong. The Russian public, like the post ww2 Germans, will have to face a reckoning with what they knew or didn’t want to. But if you think of them all as fundamentally evil, you’re just playing to Putin’s fascist crap about races and civilisational conflict. You start to sound like your own little putin. You prevent the redemption by Russians of their own country and make a repeat of this even more likely. You make Russian claims about Ukrainian nazis seem that little bit closer to the truth.

Revolutions are not easy. They are usually not a single event and last a long period, with all sorts of interference from outside forces. They also continue being contested long after and between the actual fighting. History looks a lot simpler from far away. The EU’s revolutions that you suggest were done rather simply took hundreds of years. The US didn’t do it by itself either! France bankrupted itself supporting the US revolution. 

 

So again I'm racist because I don't like seeing my friends getting killed by russians? I'm racist because I don't feel like russians raping underage girls in my country is OK? I'm racist because I'm shocked they are robbing my people of what those people worked so hard for years?

What does race have to do with any of it? 

Maybe I just don't find a fluffy position of "it's only Putin who's at fault" (that, granted, has changed into "it's only Putin and his army who is at fault" from "those innocent 18 y o kids who were sent here by the evil putin") good enough?

That army of rapists, robbers and murderers is armed by someone, is catered to by someone, dressed up by someone, fed by someone. And that someone is dozens of millions of russians.

Who all keep feeding that army, keep catering to that army, keep dressing up that army. And keep supporting the war machine. While  nobody there is trying to stop it.

So if me not being amused by some civilian Ivan somewhere cooking food for sergeant Vova who just finished raping another 14 y o girl in Mariupol makes me a nazi, who mistreats poor russians - I have no more arguments.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

This gu is calling the Russian pullout from Kiev "organized and well executed". Opinions? 

I too am surprised we are not seeing entire formations surrendering after being cut off. Maybe this is coming in the next days?

Russian had so much trouble sustaining their forces and attack how can they now all a sudden execute a organized fighting retreat?

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, only 100 in service??? 

71 lbs.

The narrator's cheery pitchman style is really annoying, like something out of the Simpsons. But many thanks for sharing 

100 is old data. On 2018 there was about 200 launchers and 2500 missiles produced. But Stugna-P is heavy AT-asset of brigade's AT-battalion level - it can be compared with TOW. It really too heavy to carry it. Initially Stugna-P crew was three men, but already probably since 2015 it was reduced to two, that made this launcher more hard for quick position change. So, different ways of increasing of mobility were implemented - from mounting its on technicals like Mitsubishi L200 in 2014 in 79th airmobile brigade (now air-assault), to ATV vehicles in National Guard and 93rd mech.brigade and finally on armored Novator heavy pick-ups. 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Maquisard manqué]

17 minutes ago, kraze said:

So again I'm racist because I don't like seeing my friends getting killed by russians? I'm racist because I don't feel like russians raping underage girls in my country is OK? I'm racist because I'm shocked they are robbing my people of what those people worked so hard for years?

What does race have to do with any of it? 

Maybe I just don't find a fluffy position of "it's only Putin who's at fault" (that, granted, has changed into "it's only Putin and his army who is at fault" from "those innocent 18 y o kids who were sent here by the evil putin") good enough?

That army of rapists, robbers and murderers is armed by someone, is catered to by someone, dressed up by someone, fed by someone. And that someone is dozens of millions of russians.

Who all keep feeding that army, keep catering to that army, keep dressing up that army. And keep supporting the war machine. While  nobody there is trying to stop it.

So if me not being amused by some civilian Ivan somewhere cooking food for sergeant Vova who just finished raping another 14 y o girl in Mariupol makes me a nazi, who mistreats poor russians - I have no more arguments.

No, you are a racist because you say all Russians are the same, that they are somehow intrinsically less than Ukrainians or others you deem “ok” in some way.

[kraze]

17 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

No, you are a racist because you say all Russians are the same, that they are somehow intrinsically less than Ukrainians or others you deem “ok” in some way.

No, what I'm saying is that all russians have to be held collectively responsible for actions of army they themselves feed.

Holding russians collectively responsible is just as "racist" as denazifying Germany in 1945.

I can guarantee you there were absolutely anti-nazi germans who were forced to bury the victims of their army even if they disliked Hitler and his supporters.

So were american soldiers forcing them to do it - racist?

Why "it's all Hitler's fault" didn't fly?

Edited April 2, 2022 by kraze

[The Steppenwulf]

19 hours ago, womble said:

I think the intent is to "boil the frog*", and hope there's a resolution before anyone gets desperate enough to do something thermonuclearly stupid.

* By which I mean incrementally ratchet the pressure in such a way that there's never an inflexion point where the new level of pressure is sufficiently different from the old level that restraint snaps. 

This is precisely the strategic approach of NATO that I think has been adopted from the start and is being slowly played out, and to which I related some 3-4 weeks ago in this thread. I think you've expressed it much better than I did though in this sentence.

'Death by a thousand cuts' gives Putin time and space in which to realise that the course must change, his ambitions are devolved and slowly diluted, rather than suddenly be presented with a dramatic change in military circumstances, which being harder to swallow for himself (even undermining his own position), he might blame wholly on NATOs meddling, and react unpredictably as a consequence.

In short, if this is NATOs game plan, it's underpinned by a psychological profile of Putin and how he is likely to react in this situation. You consider how the Kiev drive has failed (slowly), took time for that realisation to sink in as such for Putin, and then time to secure an 'offramp' (possibly an arrangement fixed in the Turkey talks) and the gentle landing achieved in the first phase of this conflict, fits this hypothesis very neatly. 

Edited April 2, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

No, you are a racist because you say all Russians are the same, that they are somehow intrinsically less than Ukrainians or others you deem “ok” in some way.

All Germans were collectively responcible for HItler's crimes after WWII. Russians also have to be. Indifferents and confomism of milliions gives rise of the impunity of one tyrant.

Russians really turned to zombie. Even mothers and wifes of Russian soldiers ask them to loot as much as possible, make "wishlists" for them, whish them to kill more "khokhlov". Russians are terminally ill with rashism and chauvinism, this nation fell to the bottom. Only huge national catastrophe and de-rashization (like de-nazificztion for Geramany ) can bring them to their senses. And to do ot is a the duty of civilized world.     

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[AlsatianFelix]

The live strategic map this group has been waiting for. Unit identifications. Locations. BTG quantities. Yet to be seen if this is timely or sustainable info:

https://www.uawardata.com/

Zoom in or click on a stack of counters and it breaks down into sub unit IDs.

Edited April 2, 2022 by AlsatianFelix

[Haiduk]

Sorry all for this pictures, but after this no one dares to accuse us in "racism", "bulling of Russians", "violation their rights" and other bull****. There many killed civilians were found in Irpin', but now our troops came to Bucha and have seen THIS. The nation, which let all of this must be punished. ALL, maybe except those, who actively represented own anti-rashism position before this nightmare.

GRAPHIC IMAGES!

Just tortured and executed civilans: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPSd5RMXsAoLdXy?format=jpg&name=900x900

The street of Bucha, littered with dead bodies of civilians: https://twitter.com/i/status/1509985789404459011

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

5 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

The live strategic map this group has been waiting for. Unit identifications. Locations. BTG quantities. Yet to be seen if this is timely or sustainable info:

https://www.uawardata.com/

Zoom in or click on a stack of counters and it breaks down into sub unit IDs.

Great link, thank you (I haven't lots of like available  )

[womble]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Even SOME mothers and wifes of SOME Russian soldiers ask them to loot as much as possible, make "wishlists" for them, whish them to kill more "khokhlov".

There, fixed that for you.

Collective responsibility for Putin's excesses is vastly different from asserting that every Russian soldier is a rapist and looter, and every Russian is a zombie who wishes to murder any Ukrainian they can get their hands on. Every. Single. Conflict. Ever. Has brought out the worst in SOME of the combatants. Generalisations can lead to tragedy.

[Lethaface]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

100% agree, the single best thing the EU can do for Ukraine, in addition to paying for a vast amount roads and bridges and train stations is to provide a REALLY good investment guarantee, in particular against further conflict. Ukraine was already getting a fair number of German auto part plants, I think they can get those back, and ad great deal more if the EU just insures companies against another Russian invasion. If Ukraine comes through this in fixable condition Zelensky is going to be the second coming of George Washington, with nearly bottomless access to EU money, and legal/technical expertise. I think he can get the governance and rule of law issues right. The Ukrainian "brand" is going to be sort of unimaginably positive.

While I think @LongLeftFlank post was interesting and surely/hopefully >50% chance going forward, I'm not sure I agree with what you write here. I'm sorry to interrupt your George Washington dreams

If Ukraine manages to kick out Russia from it's lands (Crimea another story) and does good on the internal cleansing of kleptocracy and other undesirable stuff, I think it will be able to attract large investments.

Of course the EU will do something (as will US, UK, AUS, etc), they might even do a whole lot but they won't give a blanc cheque or give financial guarantees against Russian aggression (lol that would be really, really, stupid). The EU doesn't have unlimited moneys. So like LLF wrote Ukraine will also need private (for profit) investments. With a decent security lookout those will surely come!

Also the EU isn't a moneypot membership where if you fight hard against Russians, you are allowed to become member and scoop it till the bottom . And unlike many people in the world seem to think, winning a war against Russia doesn't mean you can enroll in any coalition/union without meeting the requirements. 

EU membership is imo probably in Ukraine's hands IF they manage to achieve all the required preconditions. Fast forward 5-10 years. Personally I hope they manage.

Sorry if I'm being negative but that's just not how the world works. And after reading for the n-th time how Americans (not only you ) write that Ukraine should be in the EU for fighting against Russia, I felt the need to address it. 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Lethaface

[Bulletpoint]

11 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Also the EU isn't a moneypot membership where if you fight hard against Russians, you are allowed to become member and scoop it till the bottom 

Well, it might mean that when you switch to the euro currency, you can then take out huge loans at artificially low interest levels, siphon off the money to your buddies, and the day you can't pay back, the EU just prints more money to bail you out... Then austerity measures get imposed, but they hit the average guy in the street, not you as a politician and your well-connected friends...

At least that was my understanding of the Greek debt crisis.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Taranis]

Does any one had info on the composition (type, name of brigades etc) of the separatis 1st AK et 2nd AK ?

[Maquisard manqué]

47 minutes ago, kraze said:

No, what I'm saying is that all russians have to be held collectively responsible for actions of army they themselves feed.

Holding russians collectively responsible is just as "racist" as denazifying Germany in 1945.

I can guarantee you there were absolutely anti-nazi germans who were forced to bury the victims of their army even if they disliked Hitler and his supporters.

So were american soldiers forcing them to do it - racist?

Why "it's all Hitler's fault" didn't fly?

But that’s not what you keep typing. You just keep referring to Russians as an entire group. I can only take what you write at face value.

The whole point of denazification is that it opens peoples eyes, because you accept that people are capable of much better than they’ve shown. Shame on them. A million times over. Because they should know better.

But don’t degrade yourself by not respecting their fundamental humanity. Otherwise you don’t look much better than them.

 

[Ultradave]

Could we maybe knock off these racist accusations? Russian is not a race. Ukranian is not a race. It's the same as saying American or British or French is a race. That's just nonsense and all it's doing is inflaming passions.

Plus it's tiresome to wade through while trying to catch up.

Dave

[Maquisard manqué]

36 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Sorry all for this pictures, but after this no one dares to accuse us in "racism", "bulling of Russians", "violation their rights" and other bull****. There many killed civilians were found in Irpin', but now our troops came to Bucha and have seen THIS. The nation, which let all of this must be punished. ALL, maybe except those, who actively represented own anti-rashism position before this nightmare.

GRAPHIC IMAGES!

Just tortured and executed civilans: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPSd5RMXsAoLdXy?format=jpg&name=900x900

The street of Bucha, littered with dead bodies of civilians: https://twitter.com/i/status/1509985789404459011

 

I’m not calling any one a racist for anything more than what they type about other people. I want to see all involved in those murders brought to some sort of justice. It is not racist of Ukraine to defend itself and kill its invaders. 

[Haiduk]

33 minutes ago, womble said:

Collective responsibility for Putin's excesses is vastly different from asserting that every Russian soldier is a rapist and looter

Your western hypertrophied tolerance, false humanism and "real politic" led to Russian attrocities in Georgia, Syria and Ukraine. Western world - the stronghold and the stream of civilization turned out to the bunch of frightened wimps which deadly scared of this "superstate", made from "s**t and sticks" and gave us "48 hours to new political reality". So, this is our right how to relate to Russians. Here, in ruined Mariupol and Izium, in looted, raped, murdered Kyiv outskirt cities and villages, here completely other reality, where all liberal or leftist ideology voices must shut up and keep silence until last Russian scum find own death here. 

Yes, even among SS troopers not all were murderers. But whole SS was criminal organization and the spot of blood fell to all. So this is no matter either private Vania looted or murdered or not. The spot of dirt on them all. 

This is not Putin loots and murders. This is Russian soldiers. This is not "SOME".  This is "USUAL". The army is a cross section of society. So it reflects Russian society. So if I hear "common Russians shouldn't bear the brunt of sanctions", "stop bulling and cancelling of Russian" etc., I say "Too few sanctions. Too few cancelling. Too few rusophobia". Russia must be destroyed, derashizied and de-nuclearezied.   

My hate speech is finished.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Splinty]

@Haiduk, @kraze Agreed. What is being done to your country and your people is vile and evil. Your anger and hatred towards your enemies is justified. All the " be nice to each other" crap can wait until the war is over. Be safe and keep your heads down guys.

 

 

[Ultradave]

21 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

I’m not calling any one a racist for anything more than what they type about other people.

Exactly my point, which you seem to have missed completely.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Does any one had info on the composition (type, name of brigades etc) of the separatis 1st AK et 2nd AK ?

1st AK (DPR): 1st motor-rifle brigade, 3rd motor-rifle brigade, 5th motor-rifle brigade, 9th motor-rifle regiment (naval infantry), 11th separate motor-rifle regiment "Vostok", 100th Republican Guard motor-rifle brigade, Commandant regiment (military police),  2nd separate tank battalion "Diesel", separate recon-assult battalion "Sparta", separate motor-rifle assault battalion "Somali", 1st SOF battalion "Khan", 3rd SOF battalion,  artillery brigade "Kalmius", separate AD battalion, 1st-6th battalions of territorial defense, separate UAV company, separate EW company

Number of personnel (on paper) - 35 000 

2nd AK (LPR): 2nd motor-rifle brigade, 4th motor-rifle brigade, 7th motor-rifle brigade (initillay was in DPR subordination), 6th Cossack motor-rifle regiment, separate recon battalion, 4th separate tank battalion "August", artillery brigade, separate AD battalion, commandant regiment (military police), 14th territorial defense battalion "Prizrak" 

Number of personnel (on paper) - 15 000

TO&E of their brigades mostly matched to Russian motor-rifle brigades. 

Also unknown number of rifle regiments were established from conscripted citizenssince the war began. I spotted for now only two - 113th and 127th rifle regiments of DPR. This is just footmen rgiments without combat vehicles in battalions.

 

Both AKs are subordinated to 12th Reserve Comamnd of Russian armed forces. 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

Supposedly Russian forces yesterday abandoned Horodyna NNE of Chernihiv.  There has been a lot of talk of Russians pulling back to hold a line along the Snov river, but this would suggest they may also be completely abandoning their gains on the eastern side of the Dnipro all the way back to the borders.

[Aragorn2002]

36 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

But that’s not what you keep typing. You just keep referring to Russians as an entire group. I can only take what you write at face value.

The whole point of denazification is that it opens peoples eyes, because you accept that people are capable of much better than they’ve shown. Shame on them. A million times over. Because they should know better.

But don’t degrade yourself by not respecting their fundamental humanity. Otherwise you don’t look much better than them.

 

Why don't YOU stop your nonsense, instead of trying to show how enlighted you are and accuse people of being racist, who just love their country and have a hard time to control their anger because it's being bombed to rubble. People like you make me sick to the stomach.