How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

@Haiduk you might enjoy this

A lot of "****s" said, zero ****s given!

Ona relevancy note, it's descriptive of how complete the destruction is of so many RUS mech units.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Kinophile

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Something appears to be methodically destroying all these Russian vehicles with high precision:

 

Man, I really love the way the Russians have been so obliging by painting those bullseyes on their vehicles.

[Sarjen]

General Mud is going on counter-offensive too. 
 

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

General Mud is going on counter-offensive too. 
 

 

Hopefully this will hinder any russian attacks in the south.  Probably won't matter much up north since russia not manuevering, just retreating or digging in

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, c3k said:

"Traitor" is a fraught word when applying it to a military officer in time of war.

Being dismissed is an odd punishment: I'd think execution would be in the cards...

Of course, in a country like Ukraine, these men and their families are now going to have to flee. Is that really what Zelensky wants?

Again...odd to just dismiss.

I don’t know what the UKR Constitution says about crimes and trials, etc., but i*m sure that there would have to be trials, sentencing, appeals, etc. Better to “out” them, maybe the population will take care of it in their own way, it appears that haven’t been in a position of affecting the war since the beginning.

Sorry, posted before reading Haiduk’s info abou the fleeing before the war started.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Vet 0369

[Battlefront.com]

Someone in the polling business pointing out that the recent poll about Russian support for the war is not a credible poll.  He pointed to several flaws, one of which is there's no follow ups to understand why someone said "I support the war", the other being that the sample size is too small.  Why is the sample size too small?  Either they didn't have the money or time to conduct a large enough poll (not likely considering who conducted it) or because they had difficulty finding people willing to take it (my guess).  If people aren't willing to take a poll, that itself is an interesting thing that should be polled

 

[danfrodo]

So UK sending long range artillery system to Ukraine, it's reported.  Anyone else seen this?  Looks like my hope that there'd by heavier weapons system sent is starting to come true!!!! 

 

[danfrodo]

the great Anne Applebaum smacking us all upside the head (we deserve this)

 

[Probus]

23 hours ago, akd said:

No comment:

You may have no comment, but I can't help but hear The Beverly Hillbillies theme. 

[Machor]

War crimes & rock bottom discipline: "empty bottles of alcohol" 'nuff said.

"Ukraine war: Gruesome evidence points to war crimes on road outside Kyiv"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60949791

 

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, Machor said:

War crimes & rock bottom discipline: "empty bottles of alcohol" 'nuff said.

"Ukraine war: Gruesome evidence points to war crimes on road outside Kyiv"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60949791

 

I'm glad the Russians half assed their coverup as much as they half ass everything else.  Hopefully the documents seized can at least identify the unit the tanks belonged to.  Not that it likely matters as their crews are probably dead.

Steve

[sross112]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So we gotta get this guy playing CM

 

I'm pretty sure this guy is just turning our thread into powerpoints. Here is his playlist:

Sending their best: debunking the myth of cannon fodder in Ukraine (pointing out the 1st tier units in the invasion)

Drones in Ukraine: Lessons for other countries.

End of the tank: ATGMs and shoulder fired AT weapons in Ukraine

Reservists and Irregulars in Ukraine: A people at war (talks of the Hybrid formations)

I expect his next video to be on the importance of logistics or the internal political ramifications of Putin's venture.

[ASL Veteran]

3 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Was Maj. Gen. Sergei Nyrkov, deputy commander 35th CAA, already on the list?  There is a report here that he was treated for serious abdominal wounds in Belarus and evacuated to Russia:

https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/3/2/457129/

Edited April 1, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Was Maj. Gen. Sergei Nyrkov, deputy commander 35th CAA, already on the list?  There is a report here that he was treated for serious abdominal wounds in Belarus and evacuated to Russia:

https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/3/2/457129/

Just made the list today along with Major General Andriy Serytsky Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 36th Combined Arms Army (also  seriously wounded)

These are the first reports we have on the 35th and 36th CAAs

Major Ruslan Petrukhin, a graduate of the Kazan Higher Military Command School and a deputy battalion commander in the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade <----  also a unit of the 35th CAA

Edited April 1, 2022 by sburke

[JonS]

3 hours ago, womble said:

If anyone is alive to the downsides of a frozen conflict, it'll be the Ukrainians. The cost they're going to have to pay is excruciating, though, and I hope the rest of the world will be suitably grateful and they get the result they need.

There is a bunch of Russian offshore assets currently frozen. I'd like to think an international group of lawyers and finance folk are currently working out how to seize all that and place it in trust to fund the rebuild.

[chris talpas]

Here is a nice video on the Ukrainian Stugna P ATGM

Chris

[LongLeftFlank]

17 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Here is a nice video on the Ukrainian Stugna P ATGM

Chris

Wow, only 100 in service??? 

71 lbs.

The narrator's cheery pitchman style is really annoying, like something out of the Simpsons. But many thanks for sharing 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, only 100 in service??? 

71 lbs.

The narrator's cheery pitchman style is really annoying, like something out of the Simpsons. But many thanks for sharing 

They were building them for export to Arabic speaking countries, a large number were diverted to the Ukrainian army at the beginning of the war. I have not seen a firm number. There are several videos though of the control units displaying Arabic writing.

[sburke]

another Russian diplomat expelled

Bulgaria expels Russian diplomat over alleged espionage (msn.com)

Meanwhile in Germany

Germany charges army reserve officer with spying for Russia (msn.com)

 

and to further muddy the waters

China accused of launching cyber-attacks on Ukraine before Russian invasion (msn.com)

Edited April 2, 2022 by sburke

[sross112]

Ok, does anyone know if the UA has any riverine capability or water capable SOF? I believe they have a Naval Infantry brigade but I'm not sure of their capabilities. 

Anyway, looking at the south around Kherson there are basically two bridges of the Dnepr. The UA holds part of the river north of them around Nikopol so they have access to the waterway. Seize them or destroy them? That puts an awful lot of RA forces in a pickle if the UA was able to put pressure on them at the same time. Thoughts?

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

There is a bunch of Russian offshore assets currently frozen. I'd like to think an international group of lawyers and finance folk are currently working out how to seize all that and place it in trust to fund the rebuild.

 

You are hitting on something extremely important here, but not just punitive reparations in the Versailles sense....

This topic risks going way OT so I'll try to keep this tweetstorm as brief as I can. I exaggerate in places for clarity, nothing is so simple of course, nor is success guaranteed:

1. Let's assume the Western master game is for the  'European frontier' (i.e. the edge of the Western economic order as well as its military boundary) to shift east from Poland to Ukraine (and Belarus).

2. For that shift to occur, and not to revert to chaos, gangsterism and mass emigration, a stable economic order must be established. That doesn't mean an immediate German or even Polish standard of living, but it must deliver reasonably broad prosperity that keeps talented Ukrainians (including the cheerful, resourceful citizen soldiers who are presently astonishing the world!) at home!

3. The aftermath of this war presents a fantastic opening to "Build Back Better!"(c). Not everywhere and not always optimally or fairly. But in addition to aid monies, private (profit seeking) capital investment is absolutely essential.

4.  Globalization 2.0 is underway right now as multinationals seek to diversify operations out of an increasingly extortionate and unreliable China. ASEAN has countless high tech parks building right now, levering their cheap talent and basic infra (where it exists). They are overwhelmed and there is room for others to play too.

5. The Ukrainian infra base remains solid, if rusty and uneven. And rebuilding isn't as hard or expensive as some folks may think. Infra and plant is modular today, and the Chinese have driven global costs (and quality lol) through the floor, the current inflation notwithstanding. That's IF an investment case is there to bring in private FDI (and not just fat cat contractors gobbling subsidies a la Haiti).

6. Talent and infra (plus low cost energy) are table stakes, but not sufficient. You must also have reliable (I didn't say good or honest -- look at Thailand) government. The post-Soviet disease of gangsta kleptocrats turned oligarchs (ref. Galeev for the short form) taking rakes off resource flows and other forms of graft afflicted Ukraine as badly as it did Russia. If it returns, it will poison the well and foreign investors will go elsewhere. Look at the Philippines and Indonesia, whose governments talk big but can't get out of their own way or manage the greed and corruption of their oligarchs. Even the Chinese have trouble making headway.

....That will be postwar Russia btw, with or without Putin. Screw 'em, let them rot in Chinese receivership, and in time take their brightest young people in as new Ukrainians!

7.  BTW, that's why I have absolutely NO sympathy for the kinds of ancient 'tribal' hatreds espoused (or at least not denied) by certain folks on this board, where everything will be just great if only our golden motherland can be, ahem *cleansed* of those horrid Mongoloid Russian orcs who take murder and rapine in with their mothers milk. That Bloodlands crap leads only to even worse evils than what Putin is visiting today, and impoverishment.

8.  Embrace Ukraine's melting pot! when Kiev and Odessa are filled with South Asian tech bros (with their Ukie counterparts shuttling to Chennai), you'll know things are going in the right direction!

9. Am I just blowing Thatcherite hopium smoke? Maybe, I don't know, it isn't my country. But the ONE good thing the Commies left behind them is solid primary education. As I once told Lech Walesa (and really p***ed him off!) to his face back in 1997, the post-Soviet game was kleptocrats playing smash and grab for the rusting hulks of the Soviet order, and then taking a rake off resources. While where the wealth really was, and is, is in the people.

10.  As a pool for talented labor, this region is quite cost competitive with the 'expensive' end of ASEAN (Thailand, Malaysia), and with the emerging tech centers of India.  Do you need a soaring birthrate society? Nope, that creates as many problems as it solves. Witness Phils and Nigeria. And once Ukrainians have stable work, they can afford things like families and kids.

....Anyway, I think I made my point.

[/hopium]

Edited April 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report from today speaks to the questions asked here about Russia's redeployment of forces from Kiev to the DLPR area.  Spoiler alert... you've seen similar information here first

Quote

ussian assaults in the Donbas region have not made meaningful territorial gains since March 24.10 The Kremlin will continue to funnel reinforcements (including both low-quality individual replacements from Russia and damaged units redeployed from northeastern Ukraine) into this main effort, but these degraded forces are unlikely to enable Russia to conduct successful large-scale offensive operations

People who have been spooked about the redeployments need to know that a headcount means nothing.  3000 men being redeployed (just making that number up) might sound like a lot, but not if it had stared out at 4000.  If it were me, I'd rather have a 2000 man force that started out as 2000 men than 3000 men that started out as 4000.

Steve

[dan/california]

Even 200 tanks, and the logistics to keep them running would make a HUGE difference.

[Cobetco]

I am a know nothing person, but is there a reason people assume its a redeployment, and not just being called that to cover a failure or being done to prevent a potential collapse?