How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

gawd these guys need to do stand up comedy after the war.

Russia sets up no-fly zone over Ukraine's Donbass -Interfax (msn.com)

[The Steppenwulf]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I've been hoping to see more optics and imagers in UKR infantry hands. Not many vis with regular army show them. SOF doe, naturally. 

Given that the battle initiative, especially around Kiev, appears to be slowly shifting in UA favour, supplies of TI equipment would support coordinated UKR counterattacks taking place under cover of darkness.  If the Russians are not getting most basic stuff right, then there must equally be all kinds of tactical vulnerabilities that night attacks could exploit. 

 

[db_zero]

We can go back and forth about NATO this NATO that but it’s not going to get us anywhere. 

What’s done is done…Ukraine is more than likely not going to be a NATO member now and perhaps never.

Question now is will this be a long drawn out affair or will there be some sort of settlement.

Looking like this is going to drag on for some time, Ukrainian cities will continued to be pummeled and civilians suffer.

[The Steppenwulf]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

gawd these guys need to do stand up comedy after the war.

Russia sets up no-fly zone over Ukraine's Donbass -Interfax (msn.com)

+1  doing their bit for the "humanitarian aid" effort  . The sight of flattened towns and cities must be getting some public attention in Russia then.

[c3k]

2 hours ago, nik mond said:

So at what level does corruption run in the Russian army. I am assuming its divisional. A division submits a budget and gets funding for its running costs. Rations are expired. Tires are expired. Budget for basic upkeep pocketed?

Budgets for training maneuvers are expunged  too? Even the most remfy of the REMFs know how to respond in an ambush. So are we expected to believe the Russian SOP is for the the first tank to get blowed up, the second tank freezes, the 3rd vehicle a BTR dumps its troops who run to the opposite ditch, the 4th vehicle backs and collides with the 5th? Obviously these troops don't perform drills. What invading army does that?

I think corruption goes down even lower.

Platoon commanders can get ~50% pay bonus if they get some certifications...controlled by their company commanders. "So, yevgeni, sure, I'll sign you off for a 10,000 ruble increase, if you give me 3,000 of it."

Since it's driven down to the platoon commander, how bad do you think it works on the conscripts in the squad?

Yeah.

[Erwin]

5 hours ago, womble said:

They don't have enough of anything to make an impermeable line of control and their rear areas will be a hotbed of resistance. Yes, this will become a long term standoff, if Russia doesn't failback sooner rather than later, but the Ukrainians don't seem to be in a giving up kind of mood. And while public interest might wane, that didn't stop Governments helping the Muj out in Afghanistan.

Ukraine is not Afghanistan.  As was said, we couldn't bomb Afghanistan back to the stone age, cos it was already a stone age nation of warring tribal leaders.  Ukraine is a relatively sophisticated nation with a substantial relatively comfortable middle class.  A long period of "trenchline" war may motivate the people to want peace at a much higher price.  

Everyone is talking like "it's all over" bar the fat lady singing...  But, am pointing out a possible Russian successful defensive strategy of waiting everyone out till the west gets bored.  My guess is that Ukrainian disillusionment and western  burn-out will increasingly become apparent as we get into April.  If Putin is not removed by then, he has little or nothing to lose by sticking it out.

 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Erwin

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Ukraine is not Afghanistan.  As was said, we couldn't bomb Afghanistan back to the stone age, cos it was already a stone age nation of warring tribal leaders.  Ukraine is a relatively sophisticated nation with a substantial relatively comfortable middle class.  A long period of "trenchline" war may motivate the people to want peace at a much higher price.  

Everyone is talking like "it's all over" bar the fat lady singing...  But, am pointing out a possible Russian successful defensive strategy of waiting everyone out till the west gets bored.  My guess is that Ukrainian disillusionment and western  burn-out will increasingly become apparent as we get into April.  If Putin is not removed by then, he has little to lose by sticking it out.

 

That kind of strategy only works if you have the supplies / ammunition /men  / logistics  to keep them  squatting in trenches on the current front lines while avoiding death from above . Meanwhile the Russian Economy is  melting before our eyes .

[com-intern]

Even with an official peace you might still have Ukrainians in the “occupied territories” willing to carry out an insurgency with support of Ukrainians in unoccupied Ukraine for some time. Just because the State negotiations a ceasefire to the war doesn’t mean local Ukrainian patriots can’t source an RPG and AK to continue the war on their own terms.

[LongLeftFlank]

48 minutes ago, keas66 said:

That kind of strategy only works if you have the supplies / ammunition /men  / logistics  to keep them  squatting in trenches on the current front lines while avoiding death from above . Meanwhile the Russian Economy is  melting before our eyes .

Yes, we seem to be in a period where leg infantry squads with precision shoulder fired rockets can single-shot-kill pretty much anything from bunkers to MBTs to helos to jets at standoff ranges, as well as their supply vehicles.

For defenders, the 'low tech'* counter is to send out their own hunter teams on foot, with the ability to call in artillery to fix and kill intruders approaching within missile range of the defenses. But that requires excellent tactical comms and training which will take some time to refine.

I also expect the Russians to use the nasty old tactic of creating 'denied zones' by scattering millions of cheap (Chinese?) plastic mines and bomblets, which will sadly be killing civilians for another 2 generations.

* 'High tech' being mainly drones

Edited March 19, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[sross112]

I believe it was THH419 (sp?) that linked the youtube channel War in Ukraine showing yesterday's map and units with explanations of what is happening where. I found it very useful in helping put together the clips of stuff from all over. There is a new video showing events from the 18th.

It looks pretty accurate from what I know, but maybe @Haiduk or @Kraze could confirm it as a good source or not?

[BletchleyGeek]

3 hours ago, keas66 said:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/

That was a great find @keas66, thank you! I think many concerns around where this conflict may be going are justified. I would like just to share a few thoughts of mine on this.

Today I had an online chat with a wargaming friend based on Seattle. As we were catching up, it became apparent to me that he was quite anxious and worried about the implicit threat posed by Putin declaring Russian nuclear forces to adopt a "higher" degree of readiness. He lives close to the water, across the huge US Navy shipyards in Puget Sound. An obvious target for an SS-25 Topol or worse. You don't need to "play" a bit with this little thing

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

to be worried.

That somebody implies a threat to start a nuclear war is something sure to attract attention and focus the minds. But to what end? Is he really going to trigger the end of the world (for Russia definitely would be the end of the world, and probably cripple our cities and economies for generations too)?

Now, let's say that you're leaving a bar in Long Beach late at night, walking to your car, and the another car stops and some dude walks out with a gun and puts it to your head (real story from a good friend from LA). Do you give them your wallet? Or you turn around, look into his eyes and dare him to shoot?

In the real world story, obviously my friend gave away the wallet. Did that make them a coward or a really smart person? I want to think it was smart because all the incentives were for that gunman to shoot at them if they weren't cooperative: there was no real possibility of retribution or "negative reward" if they were uncooperative and finished off.

Putin isn't even pulling out the gun, or putting it on top of the table, or anything like that, more like giving an order to "make sure that there are no birds roosting in the launchers, and every vehicle has their battery". Which given what we're seeing in Ukraine at the moment, it may already be a tall order.

He also doesn't know for sure how good the US anti-ballistic missile defence systems are. He doesn't know how effective the US and British SSBNs can be at making sure that him and anyone related to him would have a horrible death within 15 minutes of the first Russian ICBM taking off. What he knows is that if he started a nuclear war there would heaps of "negative reward" flowing the way of everyone, and first and foremost his people. Maybe he doesn't give a turd about his people, but I am pretty sure he gives one about his legacy. And what a great legacy would be to have all major cities in Russia become graveyards, and Siberia gingerly colonised by the Chinese in 30 years or so. Sure, you have also ruined Europe, the US and anybody else they're targeting, but not really a great legacy, by any reckoning.

Maybe he's a psychopath and doesn't give a damn about his legacy or anything or anyone else. Then we're already royally screwed guys, and we should all check out the NUKEMAP app to see where we should be relocating. Unless someone produces a time machine from their garage (John Kettler?) and goes pays a visit to Harry S. Truman to convince him to forget about the work at Lost Alamos, and give the go-ahead for Operation Olympic.

Let me consider another counterfactual, and a more serious one. Let's go back to 1938. And now let's imagine that the French and British tell Mr. Hitler to sod off, and he goes and launches a "special operation" on Czechoslovakia. Without straining credibility, let's consider that the 1938 Wehrmacht gets hopelessly bogged down trying to break through the Czech fortifications at the border (which were quite serious). Let's imagine those Panzer I and Panzer II being taken out by the same anti-tank rifles and guns from Brno that then armed the Nazi war machine early in World War 2. Would have the Third Reich then "escalated" and launched an attack on Poland (or France)? Nope. Can Czechoslovakia counterattack and go all the way to Berlin to force a German surrender? Nope.

I think we're right now at an scenario very much like the counterfactual above. The blatant difference with respect to 1938 is that Mr. Hitler's alter ego now has the means to "escalate" or to credibly threaten with escalation. But giving the appearance of having the means for an escalation doesn't mean that those means 1) are ready or 2) they are really willing to use them.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

I think corruption goes down even lower.

Platoon commanders can get ~50% pay bonus if they get some certifications...controlled by their company commanders. "So, yevgeni, sure, I'll sign you off for a 10,000 ruble increase, if you give me 3,000 of it."

Since it's driven down to the platoon commander, how bad do you think it works on the conscripts in the squad?

Yeah.

What this guy said!

The corruption goes from the lowliest conscript all the way up to Putin.  The differences within that are the degree of access to enrichment and protection from punishment each has.  The lowly conscript might only be able to nick something reasonably small on his own without help.  For example, the Platoon Leader covers for the entire platoon's NVGs going up on eBay.  Now, you would think that everybody in the platoon would get caught by, say, the Company Commander.  But since he got 10% of the take, he's not going to tell anybody.

This is how corruption works. And as a system, it works pretty well if everybody is getting a piece of the action.  Well, until all that stuff that went missing, wasn't really acquired. or was swapped out for something inferior starts to matter.  Oh, say invading a neighboring country that doesn't roll over.

I think I mentioned this somewhere in the thread.  In the 1990s I had a down payment on a BMP-3 that a base commander in St. Petersburg was selling to an intermediary I was connected to.  The intermediary had already purchased a couple of tanks and at least one aircraft through this contact in Russia.  So it was legit.  The problem was the broker took all the seed money and invested in a shipload of oil that turned out to be too low quality to sell at the price he needed.  So the deal fell through, the broker was arrested by the FBI for fraud, and later deported back to Russia.  I, fortunately, got my money back as it was in an escrow account.

So yeah, I know a little about Russian military corruption

One of my favorite memes of the war so far:

[Kinophile]

17 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

But giving the appearance of having the means for an escalation doesn't mean that those means 1) are ready or 2) they are really willing to use them.

 

Well said, especially this last.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

Everyone is talking like "it's all over" bar the fat lady singing...  But, am pointing out a possible Russian successful defensive strategy of waiting everyone out till the west gets bored. 

And several of us keep pointing out that there's reasons for this not being a practical option.

First, Putin's economy is in the dumpster already.  It's going to get MUCH worse.  Keeping his own people, and even full republics, from revolting on him will become Priority #1.  He's already robbed troops from the most dangerous areas already for the war in Ukraine.  What do you think he's going to have to do if those places heat up again?  He doesn't have forces to draw from other areas.

Another problem is the conscripts.  They turn over twice a year, with the first one of 2022 supposedly being April.  This means he's going to lose a large number of soldiers and have to train up a new batch.  This is going to further reduce readiness.  Worse, there's a whole bunch of conscripts in Ukraine right now that shouldn't be there.  Sorting that out is going to be problematic.  We're also seeing reports of active Contractors resigning, though of course that is tough to confirm.  In any case, with word getting around about all the death in Ukraine, how do you think that's going to affect recruitment of new Contractors?  There's some reports that Wagner Group has had difficulty recruiting and they pay a lot better than the Army.

However, the big problem is that Ukraine is not going to just sit around doing nothing during this defensive period.  They will be attacking and they will be killing Russians.  Not just through artillery strikes, but through rear area shoot outs.  Russians can't live in their bunkers.  Someone has to drive around to get food and supplies.  The roads for doing this are not that difficult to predict and to hit.

In the rear the civilian population that remains is likely to be hostile to Russian occupation.  Which gives the Ukrainians under arms a lot of benefits, such as intel gathering, shelter, supplying, etc.

There's just too many things headed in the wrong direction for the Russians.  So while the war isn't over yet, the scene is already set for it.  Nazi Germany fought pretty hard for the last 6 months of the war, but their defeat was pretty much a foregone conclusion after about September.  Just took a while.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I also expect the Russians to use the nasty old tactic of creating 'denied zones' by scattering millions of cheap (Chinese?) plastic mines and bomblets, which will sadly be killing civilians for another 2 generations.

This is part of the real problem Ukraine faces right now.  Russia has effectively lost the war, but it can pretty well screw up the peace that follows.  First by leveling cities and villages, second by making it vastly more difficult to rebuild by booby-trapping them.  The longer it takes to force the Russians to leave Ukrainian soil, the longer and more painful the post-war recovery will be for Ukraine.  Putin is counting on the Ukrainians coming to the conclusion that the post-war costs are too high and they'll agree to unfavorable terms now just to end it.  But I don't see that happening.

Steve

[Kinophile]

doublepost

**** nope.

Oh well, felt good.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Kinophile

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

There needs to be an overt, clear declaration from the EU /West that they will help Ukriane through the recovery. Its sorta assumed right now but a definitive official statement of intent, with an initial framework and priorities list, preliminary commitments, consultations with Zelenksy's government of future priorites, etc would go a long way to showing that the West is in this for the long haul.

You need a Marshall Plan. Serves the same purpose to keep Ukraine in the western camp. I can also see a Pan Slavic movement in Eastern Europe who at best keep a neutral stand but may also turn against the west. 

[Kinophile]

5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

You need a Marshall Plan. Serves the same purpose to keep Ukraine in the western camp. I can also see a Pan Slavic movement in Eastern Europe who at best keep a neutral stand but may also turn against the west. 

Hell, Pilsudski's dream of the Intermarium might still come to pass, albeit in a far more balanced and less chauvinistic manner.

[Battlefront.com]

Here's an interesting tidbit.  Lithuanians are donating their SUVs for territorial defense units in Ukraine:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Moldovans and Albanians could follow suit too.

WELCOME TO MOLDOVA. YOUR CAR IS HERE ALREADY 

 

[chuckdyke]

A new Slavic union without Russia and sentiments are much the same in Kazakhstan with its Central Asian population. They have long memories. Keep them as friends you can't afford to ignore them.

Edited March 19, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Battlefront.com]

Ukrainian Ambassador to Austria posted this:

The Ukrainian General Staff reports are more cagey about this, reporting that they've conducted counter attacks in several places, but did not get specific.

The ISW report for the 18th of March, on the other hand, highlighted the counter attacks out of Mykolaiv and

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18

Quote

Key Takeaways

• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia has “significantly exhausted its human resources” due to battle casualties, cases of self-mutilation to avoid deployment, and psychological factors.
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces around Mykolayiv in the past several days.
• The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term.
• Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest or northeast of Kyiv on March 18.
• Russian forces continue to make steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.
• Ukrainian forces halted a Russian attempt to advance southeast of Kharkiv, through the city of Izyum, in the past 24 hours. Russia is deploying additional reserves to reinforce the Kharkiv axis of advance.
• Russian and proxy forces made minor territorial gains north of the city of Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast and will likely assault the city itself in the next 24-48 hours.
• Ukrainian military intelligence created an official website to provide support and guidance to Ukrainian fighters and civilians in Russian-occupied territory.

And a US Pentagon correspondent posted this:

 

[Machor]

22 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

a Ukrainian field media crew in an earlier posted clip referred to the Russians repeatedly as 'Mosculs' and occasionally 'orcs' (although others reserve that for Chechens).  So, that dehumanizing is gonna happen as more blood is shed.

Sadly, true. What struck me specifically with 'ukrop' is that when I first heard the term being used in 2014, it was limited to Ukrainian security forces, as a counterpart to their use of 'separ' for separatists. Extending the use of 'ukrop' to Ukrainian civilians: 1. Doesn't follow the Kremlin's ideology of this war being something like a civil war. 2. Acknowledges that they are fighting a war of aggression. If the soldiers fighting the war are openly expressing their ideology in these terms, this can go to very dark places...

[BletchleyGeek]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The Ukrainian General Staff reports are more cagey about this, reporting that they've conducted counter attacks in several places, but did not get specific.

The latest ISW update also showed two parallel deep penetrations from the Russian southern abteilung (the German word is perfect) north of Mariupol.

Edited March 19, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukrainian Ambassador to Austria posted this:

The Ukrainian General Staff reports are more cagey about this, reporting that they've conducted counter attacks in several places, but did not get specific.

The ISW report for the 18th of March, on the other hand, highlighted the counter attacks out of Mykolaiv and

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-18

And a US Pentagon correspondent posted this:

 

While this information is still anecdotal, it does add to the growing list of anecdotes that support what  US and NATO officials are describing as the "BFC Steve" scenario.  This scenario is considered by senior diplomatic and defense officials as being, using technical language,  "really fricking great".