How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I just read twitter of local citizen, her last post was about hour ago - the town is 50/50 between Ukrainans and Russians. 

Ok good, so pretty much as its been. Which, for UKR, counts as an on-going win.

[keas66]

17 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Just catching up on this thread, but I really have to react to this and am copying @BFCElvis.

This kind of accusation is beyond the pale, col. Douglas Macgegor is a very well respected officer, he has written many articles that have influenced U.S. Army doctrine. Launching personal attacks just because you do not like his politics or agree with his politics is not what we do around here.

 

Sorry - where did I insult him ?

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Just catching up on this thread, but I really have to react to this and am copying @BFCElvis.

This kind of accusation is beyond the pale, col. Douglas Macgegor is a very well respected officer, he has written many articles that have influenced U.S. Army doctrine. Launching personal attacks just because you do not like his politics or agree with his politics is not what we do around here.

 

Respect is something that is earned, but it can also be something that is lost.  Once someone starts shilling Kremlin talking points on Russian state media, well...

Steve

[panzermartin]

The thing is, does Putin realize that now the West views him as Sadam Hussein, and actually nobody will actually aggre to sign anything with him, especially Ukrainians that hate him ? He must have known that, that is all or nothing now, a total war. And actually I don't see him getting out of Russia for the rest of his life if he is considered a war criminal and could face the fate of Milosevic. 

[billbindc]

38 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

1) I don't care what the original plan was, and you should know by now as literally everyone on this forum should know, no plan survives contact with the enemy. As I stated in my post, things will continue until Mr. Putin decides to stop them.

2) I never said Russia has uncontested control of UKR airspace, please read my post again, or just learn to read in general, thanks.

3) I specifically reference the fact the Russian Navy has not been aggressive. What they have NOT done though is turn around head back to home port.

4) I would like to see this evidence of defeat please. I'm sorting through the pages of this thread as fast as I can, but the reddit-tier cringe and literal tweet posting is ruining my vision and giving me a headache, especially having to once again observe videos and tweets of stuff that was disproven, mistaken, or redacted weeks ago.

5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS.

It's like you're desperately trying to both insinuate I'm saying something I'm not, and also make points that simply fly in the face of reality. The Russians have hundreds, or thousands of tanks and vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and thousands of troops in Ukraine. That is not what losing looks like. When Ukraine announces they've retaken Kherson, relieved Mariupol, or some other such thing, then I will be the first to say, "Yup, looks like they're winning."

Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.

I will always find myself completely unmoved by claims of Russian victory that completely ignore the economic damage that's been done already and the economic catastrophe that coming and how that will affect both Ukraine's calculations of resistance and Russian ability to maintain...or return to...any sort of forward momentum that can achieve their strategic aims. And just a thought...if a quick fait accomplis was the winning scenario here, I really can't imagine calling a costly slog that can't get past it's own initial logistical tail a win. 

[G.I. Joe]

2 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Does anyone else find it odd the deputy of the regimental commander was flying active combat missions?

Honestly, I would find it a lot odder if he weren't flying active combat missions. I'm hardly an expert, but my understanding has always been that anything below a one-star or equivalent flying combat missions has been the norm for most air arms throughout most of aviation history, squadron/wing/regimental etc. COs especially...

[LukeFF]

48 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

1) I don't care what the original plan was, and you should know by now as literally everyone on this forum should know, no plan survives contact with the enemy. As I stated in my post, things will continue until Mr. Putin decides to stop them.

2) I never said Russia has uncontested control of UKR airspace, please read my post again, or just learn to read in general, thanks.

3) I specifically reference the fact the Russian Navy has not been aggressive. What they have NOT done though is turn around head back to home port.

4) I would like to see this evidence of defeat please. I'm sorting through the pages of this thread as fast as I can, but the reddit-tier cringe and literal tweet posting is ruining my vision and giving me a headache, especially having to once again observe videos and tweets of stuff that was disproven, mistaken, or redacted weeks ago.

5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS.

It's like you're desperately trying to both insinuate I'm saying something I'm not, and also make points that simply fly in the face of reality. The Russians have hundreds, or thousands of tanks and vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and thousands of troops in Ukraine. That is not what losing looks like. When Ukraine announces they've retaken Kherson, relieved Mariupol, or some other such thing, then I will be the first to say, "Yup, looks like they're winning."

Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.

Yep, that one guy in every bar. 

[Fenris]

15 hours ago, Fenris said:

Gets more interesting towards the end.  Would appear UKR morale is pretty good.

 

 

When I thought about this later a question I had about the Russian SPA's taking counter battery fire... Is the armour on those things thick enough to withstand near misses from long tube artillery?

It seems rather risky to move that far forward, into the open and be under observation.

 

[Kinophile]

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/ukraines-insurgency-in-waiting/

Pretty standard stuff, a little old (pace this war).

Best part, the final lines:

“At the moment,” Anton says, “we have no doubts about Zelenskyy. He seems very strong. We are all shocked in a good way.”

“We removed the ‘Capitulation’ from our name because as of right now, no one is talking about it. The entire nation is concentrated on fighting these dickheads.”

SU!

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Fenris said:

 

When I thought about this later a question I had about the Russian SPA's taking counter battery fire... Is the armour on those things thick enough to withstand near misses from long tube artillery?

It seems rather risky to move that far forward, into the open and be under observation.

 

I was curious too,  seemed very out in the open. Brave or dumb...I lean to the latter.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Kinophile

[The_Capt]

14 hours ago, General Jack Ripper said:

1) I don't care what the original plan was, and you should know by now as literally everyone on this forum should know, no plan survives contact with the enemy. As I stated in my post, things will continue until Mr. Putin decides to stop them.

2) I never said Russia has uncontested control of UKR airspace, please read my post again, or just learn to read in general, thanks.

3) I specifically reference the fact the Russian Navy has not been aggressive. What they have NOT done though is turn around head back to home port.

4) I would like to see this evidence of defeat please. I'm sorting through the pages of this thread as fast as I can, but the reddit-tier cringe and literal tweet posting is ruining my vision and giving me a headache, especially having to once again observe videos and tweets of stuff that was disproven, mistaken, or redacted weeks ago.

5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS.

It's like you're desperately trying to both insinuate I'm saying something I'm not, and also make points that simply fly in the face of reality. The Russians have hundreds, or thousands of tanks and vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and thousands of troops in Ukraine. That is not what losing looks like. When Ukraine announces they've retaken Kherson, relieved Mariupol, or some other such thing, then I will be the first to say, "Yup, looks like they're winning."

Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.

So I gotta start by asking: are you honestly engaging in a discussion here and want to explore ideas?  Because you are coming across as a guy whose mind is made up and no amount of rational discussion is going to matter.  I am honestly going to try here, you get exactly one shot based on your tone so far:

1 - Absolutely true, plans definitely do not survive contact, as old as warfare.  However, what is important is how fast one can re-plan and pivot.  In this the Russians have not demonstrated an ability to come up with a "new plan" and re-org to it.  They have had a pregnant pause which has allowed their opponent to organize/mobilize, arm up, dig in, dominate the narrative, and access billions in military support.  And then there is the quality of that initial plan.  Failing to establish some key operational pre-conditions (e.g. why does the internet still work for Ukraine?) is also not a very good sign. So let's see the quality of the second (or third) plan and then we might now better what is going on.

2 - You said "The Russians have taken losses, but they remain free to operate combat aircraft and helicopters over most of the country." That is not true, in fact it is very not true below about 10k feet.  The fact that Russian forces did not set the basic pre-condition of gaining air superiority is a demonstration of their problem, not Ukraine's.  Plenty of evidence of Ukrainian UAV strikes online to demonstrate that we really are in more of an airpower stalemate and that is bad for an invading force.

3 - The Russian Navy is definitely still a factor.  They have sea control and are hitting with missiles but 1) like everything else the Russians are doing, there appears little integration between naval, air and land power at this point and 2) the Russian amphibious capability is in serious question. If for the sole question, "why have they not used it yet?  that said sea control will likely not be decisive, nor has it been decisive so far.

4- Evidence of defeat (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html), so that is coming up on 24 BTGs of tanks, look at the logistics vehicle, coming up on 485...that is bad.  But even if you refuse to believe this, then one has to ask "what losing looks like".  Over to you as you asked the question.  However, it is a layered issue.  Political defeat, military defeat, economic defeat - if we are talking military defeat, well then an inability to influence or shape negotiations in the direction of national interest is near the top for me.  And as we watch the bubble slide on the Russian side of the table, it is not looking good, but I will give you that the jury is still out. 

5- Well backwards, as on a map, is kind of a one dimensional view to be honest. The primary way Russia has "gone backwards" is in the will of the Ukrainian people.  This is not about terrain, it is about their willingness to fight.  I think if Russian had one a quick and fairly clean fight that will might have stayed relatively dormant; however, that "plan did not survive" and now the entire nation is galvanized in an existential fight...that is definitely "backwards" from a Russian perspective.  Economically, narrative and just about any other non-military metric you want to apply Russia has gone backwards severely and let's not even start on the diplomatic front as it has been a complete disaster.  But if you only want to measure ground, then I guess we have to see.

So we have discussed a lot on forces and comparisons.  Right now, conservative estimate is that UA and Russian manpower is pretty near parity in theatre.  Russia does have equipment advantage but it has failed to be able to really leverage that.  Why?  Well that is a million dollar question.  What we have seen is that Russian mass is not working, if it was that map would look a lot different.  I suspect it is either because the Russian war machine simply is not setup for this complexity and has fallen under its own weight, and the Ukrainians help them along with that.

You are correct on one point, this is coming down to Will.  The Russians can keep pouring men into this fight, even if they are dismounted and have no ammo or food but if they have the Will that is an option.  What you seem to be sidestepping is the other issue, the Ukrainian Will to fight.  They see this as existential and are acting as such, so that is a problem right there for the Russians, unless they want a decades old resistance blowing up in their face but frankly I can't even seeing them getting that far as that would mean the Russians actually have to control the entire country and not about 15% of it.  Until then arms and support will flow in from the west and Russians will bleed...but we will see who blinks first.

 Lemme just close with a very important point - this is not an internet argument that anyone can "win".  I know the reflex is there to play forum games and try to "out argue each other" but that is not what is happening here.  For the most part no one really has a full picture of that is going on so we are sharing information and trying to build the best picture we can.  So the usual internet argument games do not apply here.  If you have a different assessment based on information you have, present it and we can all get a better picture.  This is a real war and people are dying in droves, so I frankly do not care who is "right or wrong" on a given Thurs because the situation is too dynamic.  But if you honestly want to contribute then do so, but this is not a contest...it is a really violent and scary puzzle.  Finally, there are people posting here who are actually in range of all those guns so let's also try and keep that in mind.

Edited March 18, 2022 by The_Capt

[The Steppenwulf]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Actually, it might be easier to do.  I reminded folks an eon ago (probably yesterday!) that the coup against Gorbachev happened when he went to his dacha.  The physically cut the communications lines and surrounded him with pro-coup forces.  They then had a cover story fed to everybody, internal and external, that Gorbachev was sick and that they were acting on his behalf.  If Gorbachev had been in Moscow this would have been much harder to do

Not too far removed from the Valkeryie plan too! And half a dozen Roman emperors found themselves vulnerable when they were away from Rome and command of the Praetorian guard was detached.

I'd be very surprised if Putin takes one step outside the Kremlin anytime soon. 

[General Jack Ripper]

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Right, but some plans survive better than others.  The problem is Putin's Plan B is to shell civilians and hope that gets him a peace deal that is fully acceptable to him.  Not going to happen.

Is that his plan B? It looks to me more like plan F. Then again, if they continue to reduce Mariupol the Crimean front and Donbas front will be merged. What happens after that is for the future to tell, but more likely there will be a push from the south towards the Kharkiv front.

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Apparently you haven't read much of this thread because this has been refuted quite thoroughly.  The war is outside of Putin's hands.

I don't know Steve, it seems to me he can throw in the towel any time he wants to. It's not like there's someone standing behind him with a pistol to his head forcing him to continue fighting, and if there actually is then we should all be VERY worried.

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Says the guy that apparently can't read.

Says the guy who apparently can't read either.

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They are irrelevant to the ground war, so not important.

So a ready supply of cruise missiles, artillery shells, and a capability for supply distribution that can be operated along the entire coastal region is not relevant to the ground war? Okay Steve, you got me there. It's irrelevant.

Quote

Er, you are reading THIS thread on THIS forum?  Because what you just described isn't at all what is here.  Unless, of course, your reading comprehension is substandard.

Or maybe you're so used to sludge you don't notice it anymore. Then again you've been on THIS forum longer than any of us. I'm sure you could tell some horror stories over a few drinks.

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You have an unusual definition of winning. ... And hate to break it to you... the frontlines are being pushed back.  Only just starting, but it is happening already.

My definition of winning is 'The Complete Absence of the State of Losing'.
Why do you 'hate to break it to me'? I hope you're right. But we'll see, won't we? Maybe after another week or two the glorious counterattack will be plain to see, and beyond all doubt.

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Says the guy that makes grandiose statements that to many, including me, are completely contrary to the facts.

Okay.

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When Nazi Germany surrendered had millions of men under arms, they had thousands of tanks and armored vehicles.  They even still had functional aircraft, including the only operational fleet of jet aircraft.  They even still had some naval forces.

Historians have gone back and looked for when they think Germany lost the war.  Not 1945.  Not 1944.  For many, not even 1943.  Somewhere in 1941 or 1942 is where most informed historians feel Germany lost the war.  When this war is over most informed historians will say Russia lost the war by about Day 3.

 

A hundred years from now I'm sure the historians will have fun picking this apart, but when Germany surrendered the largest part of their territory they controlled was in Austria.

So yeah. They surrendered Austria and Norway and Denmark and Czechoslovakia. When the largest part of Ukraine Russia controls is none of it, they can feel free to surrender that too. Then we can stop dealing with the ongoing fallout of 2014, and the complete lack of political, social, and military response to a blatant invasion and annexation of foreign territory that happened live on camera in front of everyone.

Personally I think future learned historians will call this, "The War That Didn't Have to Happen at All, Except Stupid People on Both Sides Made Stupid Decisions, and Now We Have to Deal With It."

Quote

 

He has no plan.  If you read the discussion here instead of dismissing that you might actually see why.

One thing I do agree with you though.  Putin is not going to roll over and die unless someone shoots him in the head.  Until that happens, it's Hitler in his bunker behavior.

 

I am doing my best to read this thread but after taking three advil I think I'll give up.

Let me know when that bunker thing happens though, when that nonexistent guy with a pistol pulls the trigger. But he doesn't exist though, so I don't think that's going to happen.

Would make a cool movie though. 'From Russia with Love: Downfall Edition'

Anyway, I've got a bursting headache, so if anyone wants to actually refute any of the bullet points I made in my first post feel free to PM me, I'd appreciate some extra info I apparently don't posses, and the Institute for the Study of War doesn't possess either.

[BFCElvis]

41 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Just catching up on this thread, but I really have to react to this and am copying @BFCElvis.

This kind of accusation is beyond the pale, col. Douglas Macgegor is a very well respected officer, he has written many articles that have influenced U.S. Army doctrine. Launching personal attacks just because you do not like his politics or agree with his politics is not what we do around here.

 

I don't know much (or anything) about the guy but one of the links John Kettler linked to read like straight up Russian propaganda. So, I'm not sure what to think, Joch. Rudy Giuliani used to be a very well respected mayor. The links John put up are still there if you want to scan through them.

[Kinophile]

...he's gone?

Man, that was an aggressively unwelcome distraction.

This STILL makes me laugh, hard. I spent a half hour trying to explain the significance to my significant other. I eventually told her something like this blew up MH17. Then she became very happy about this photo.

[billbindc]

A more nuanced take: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17

[Machor]

"Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785754

TL;DR: He's now ready to settle for Ukraine ceding Crimea and Donbas.

[keas66]

Somewhere  In Ukraine - an ambush plays out :

 

 

 

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Machor said:

"Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785754

TL;DR: He's now ready to settle for Ukraine ceding Crimea and Donbas.

"Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia."

This isn't happening...or at least not in any way that actual disarmament occurs. 

[akd]

BBC report from Kharkiv:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785679

[Cobetco]

2 minutes ago, Machor said:

"Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785754

TL;DR: He's now ready to settle for Ukraine ceding Crimea and Donbas.

no that's not what it said, the terms the BBC have stated are what we already knew. no joining any blocks, cede Donbass and Crimea, and make Russian a protected language. and disarm. its not progress. the BBC is delusional thinking this a a good deal for Ukraine.

[Vacillator]

5 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

the BBC is delusional thinking this a a good deal for Ukraine.

To be fair I don't think the BBC said it would be a good deal, that would not be for the BBC to decide.  Or did I miss something?

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

no that's not what it said, the terms the BBC have stated are what we already knew. no joining any blocks, cede Donbass and Crimea, and make Russian a protected language. and disarm. its not progress. the BBC is delusional thinking this a a good deal for Ukraine.

Exactly. This isn’t a real offer, as the French Foreign Minister has been at pains to point out. It’s merely propaganda designed to let Russia claim it’s open to a deal but in reality it’s only open to getting for free what’s become to costly for it to take. Read properly, it tells us that at least publicly Russia is still in denial.

[Cobetco]

5 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

To be fair I don't think the BBC said it would be a good deal, that would not be for the BBC to decide.  Or did I miss something?

you are correct. its just the way things were worded gave me the impression that the author was thinking Zelensky should take the deal. but that is my mistake to have read it that way, and I suspect upon re-reading that its the turks who are flavoring it that way, not the BBC.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Cobetco

[Sequoia]

@G.I. Joe

Welcome to the forums, but I thought I'd let you know that avatar has been in use by an esteemed forum member and former BFC employee, so you have big shoes to fill.