How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

I am no ballistics expert, could the 30mm penetrate the side of the tank in question?

[Kinophile]

The BMP hit was very well done - hit the vehicle, Ivan bailed out, then Azov fired underneath and through the lower tracks to hit the escaping men. Interestingly he kept firing into the engine until it was clear it was destroyed - also for certain killing anyone in the driver/commander spaces. 

Total unit kill - vehicle done, infantry are probably combat ineffective, no immediate resupply or proper first aid, no real comms and probably ammo cook off coming. So gtfo quick.

That is some cool-headed, efficient and ruthless work. 

@Kraft for sure. BMP protection is garbage.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Kinophile

[Thomm]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Kraft for sure. BMP protection is garbage.

Kraft was asking about the side shots at the tank in the first part of the video, I guess.

[Battlefront.com]

I'm pretty sure 30mm AP can penetrate the side lower hull.  Even if it can't, 30mm of any type could seriously damage the running gear.  Breaking or weakening track linkage, damaging wheels, etc. can be a pretty effective way to counter superior armor.  At the very least raking it with 30mm fire would strip off ERA and likely rattle the crew quite a bit.  Meaning, no matter what it had some positive effect even if only temporary.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russian Orlan-10 UAV fell in Romania. AD again decided "do not escalate"...

 

 

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, Thomm said:

Kraft was asking about the side shots at the tank in the first part of the video, I guess.

Uff, good catch, yes. Yah as Steve says. Even in CMBS I'll happily rake a tank with BTR/BMP fire for the exact reasons he mentioned, plus hopefully stripping fancy optics n stuff.

[keas66]

Ukrainian "Technical"

 

[Kinophile]

@kraze@Haiduket al

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-02-22/h_37193ed6c5c7962b66806b39e8ed0c70

is this correct? Konotop has negotiated a local peace with local militia/police still in situ?

 

 

 

[akd]

34 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I am no ballistics expert, could the 30mm penetrate the side of the tank in question?

Looks like they are shooting only with HE (“OF”).

[akd]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Very good. Also shows how important TI imaging is.

That is TV, not thermal.

Edited March 14, 2022 by akd

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Incredible combat footage from inside a BTR-4. Close range street fighting against T-72 ? and BMP-1 + dismounts in Mariupol with autocannon.

That is some intense footage @Kraft ! Can you tell if that was folks watching a replay on the screen or actual live footage as it happened? Pretty scary. 

[Ultradave]

Better news on the nuclear power plant front. Power is restored to Chernobyl. IAEA's biggest concern seems to be the overworked and isolated staff, with some maintenance being neglected. On the good side, safeguards information is being sent to the IAEA from everywhere except Chernobyl (again, a reminder that the safeguards being mentioned here are not reactor operation but concerned with the safeguarding of nuclear materials from illicit diversion)

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-20-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Dave

[Probus]

3 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Better news on the nuclear power plant front. Power is restored to Chernobyl. IAEA's biggest concern seems to be the overworked and isolated staff, with some maintenance being neglected. On the good side, safeguards information is being sent to the IAEA from everywhere except Chernobyl (again, a reminder that the safeguards being mentioned here are not reactor operation but concerned with the safeguarding of nuclear materials from illicit diversion)

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-20-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Dave

@Ultradave, you know a lot about nuclear power.  You don't happen to be a nuclear engineer?

[Lethaface]

24 minutes ago, akd said:

That is TV, not thermal.

Good resolution though, even when the screen is captured by phone (?) camera. 

[Ultradave]

18 minutes ago, Probus said:

@Ultradave, you know a lot about nuclear power.  You don't happen to be a nuclear engineer?

I am, yes. PhD in NE. Worked during my career on nuclear weapons (Army artillery experience - 82d didn't have any but nuclear weapons was my secondary specialty after artillery), nuclear reactor startup testing, radiation protection, and nuclear non-proliferation R&D.

As Steve pointed out at one point - just because I jumped out of airplanes, it appears I'm not completely an idiot (or something to that effect   )

 

Dave

Edited March 14, 2022 by Ultradave

[DesertFox]

41 minutes ago, akd said:

That is TV, not thermal.

That´s why I mentioned it. If they would have been using thermal the tanks and soldiers would have been glowing like a christmas tree.

[Thomm]

32 minutes ago, Probus said:

That is some intense footage @Kraft ! Can you tell if that was folks watching a replay on the screen or actual live footage as it happened? Pretty scary. 

If it was life then the camera man would be affected by the vehicle acceleration.
This is not the case, so it must be a "gun cam"-like recording.

Best regards
Thomm

[Kraft]

11 minutes ago, Thomm said:

If it was life then the camera man would be affected by the vehicle acceleration.
This is not the case, so it must be a "gun cam"-like recording.

Best regards
Thomm

45 minutes ago, Probus said:

That is some intense footage @Kraft ! Can you tell if that was folks watching a replay on the screen or actual live footage as it happened? Pretty scary. 

Since vehicle audio is available, vibrations and muzzle flashes visible (look at the window frame) when shooting I am certain it is live recording during combat, you can also see the camera guy getting moved by inertia as the vehicle breaks during the tank engagement.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Kraft

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh I love a "technically" fight, especially with int types.  My western bias is no doubt showing but in the west where a bridge is parked does not reflect ownership.  Bridges are operationally (and in some cases strategically) controlled assets, the Brigade or lower have them attached in a command relationship for employment but that can be pulled at any time.  There are exceptions such as an independent Brigade Group but even then strategic gets really touchy around bridging assets.  The "so what" here is that these are near the top of the Joint Target List-like so much abandoned Russian kit on display, often above other Brigade level assets because there are so few of them (1 per MRR and 3 per TR in the old Soviet layout, no idea as to current Russian TO&E) and targeted as Div or higher level assets.  

Now the Russians may be going in another direction and might have parking lots full of these things [aside: the pontoon bridges we saw earlier are parked and owned at a Div level in the old Soviet parlance] and allocate them as a Bde Comd's personal toys but either way this is a high-level asset that was abandoned...and we are back to "WTF?!"

Yes you brainwashed NATO imperialist fool ...  I'll let that one stand for the sake of harmony but the targeting issue that you raise is certainly one that merits discussion.

Starting simplistically and I know I'm preaching to the converted so this is for the wider caucus - targeting, when done properly, should attack the centre of gravity which doctrinally is the thing from which the enemy derives strength.  It can be targeted directly or indirectly by stripping away key capabilities.  Personally I dislike the methodologies used to analyze this that are found in many Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace pamphlets and Military Decision Making Process pamphlets so my analysis is not according to the accepted templates but informed by the fact that I am a qualified targeteer.

Taking our contested  AVLB as an example, it is only going to be candidate for the HPTL, JPTL if the enemy needs to cross a gap or lots of gaps to get from where they are to where they need to go.  This then set me thinking as to what the HPTL/JPTL for the Ukrainians might look like now for the battles around Kiev.  This 'operational pause' which seems to be marked by the Russians stonking the city leads me to an HPTL with artillery at the top, followed by fuel associated logistics then artillery associated logistics with HQs bringing up the rear.  Mind you I'm not dying in a ditch over it, the logs could actually be right at the top.  Going back to centres of gravity and key capabilities, it seems that the Russians are now favouring the employment of artillery in order to shape the subsequent assault by manoeuvre assets on the city by attrition.  By stripping away the guns and their ammunition you are denying that shape effect.  By attacking fuel-related logistics you limit the freedom of action of the manoeuvre assets and cause general headaches all round for the whole force and by targeting HQs you are disrupting the ability of the Russians to come up with a 'Plan B' as well as all the other coordination stuff that goes on in HQs - albeit this has been fairly lacking to date without too much outside interference ... hence why I put HQs further down the list.

[akd]

Why keep your visor down, bro?

 

[BeondTheGrave]

Just now, akd said:

Why keep your visor down, bro?

 

Hey do you want to do an interview? Me: 

Can you lift your visor up? Me: 

[Thomm]

42 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Since vehicle audio is available, vibrations and muzzle flashes visible (look at the window frame) when shooting I am certain it is live recording during combat, you can also see the camera guy getting moved by inertia as the vehicle breaks during the tank engagement.

Yes, sorry. I better go back to lurking.

Best regards,
Thomm

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Yes you brainwashed NATO imperialist fool ...  I'll let that one stand for the sake of harmony but the targeting issue that you raise is certainly one that merits discussion.

Starting simplistically and I know I'm preaching to the converted so this is for the wider caucus - targeting, when done properly, should attack the centre of gravity which doctrinally is the thing from which the enemy derives strength.  It can be targeted directly or indirectly by stripping away key capabilities.  Personally I dislike the methodologies used to analyze this that are found in many Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace pamphlets and Military Decision Making Process pamphlets so my analysis is not according to the accepted templates but informed by the fact that I am a qualified targeteer.

Taking our contested  AVLB as an example, it is only going to be candidate for the HPTL, JPTL if the enemy needs to cross a gap or lots of gaps to get from where they are to where they need to go.  This then set me thinking as to what the HPTL/JPTL for the Ukrainians might look like now for the battles around Kiev.  This 'operational pause' which seems to be marked by the Russians stonking the city leads me to an HPTL with artillery at the top, followed by fuel associated logistics then artillery associated logistics with HQs bringing up the rear.  Mind you I'm not dying in a ditch over it, the logs could actually be right at the top.  Going back to centres of gravity and key capabilities, it seems that the Russians are now favouring the employment of artillery in order to shape the subsequent assault by manoeuvre assets on the city by attrition.  By stripping away the guns and their ammunition you are denying that shape effect.  By attacking fuel-related logistics you limit the freedom of action of the manoeuvre assets and cause general headaches all round for the whole force and by targeting HQs you are disrupting the ability of the Russians to come up with a 'Plan B' as well as all the other coordination stuff that goes on in HQs - albeit this has been fairly lacking to date without too much outside interference ... hence why I put HQs further down the list.

Get back in your cave, J2 troll!!  The Comd and "his chosen" determine the enemy CoG; the J2, while scuttling around chasing their 20 sided dice, provide advice...most of which is promptly ignored.  Remember your station!!

Seriously, my assessment of the Russian CoG is it ability to move and sustain mass at what they think the UKR Strategic CoG is, Kyiv, which is odd as I disagree with that assessment, the UKR Strategic CoG is likely support from the West, along with sustaining the will to fight, neither really depend on Kyiv remaining in UKR hands.  That "mass" includes fires but also manpower if they are dumb enough to try and take Kyiv the old fashion way. 

Regardless, that elevates operational logistics and mobility (particularly bridging - as there seem to be belts of irrigation canals NW of Kyiv) to the top of the joint targeting list to my mind (I will leave it to you "qualified targeteers" to work out on what Kafka-esque list-system it goes on).  Artillery is going to be right up there as well but I would focus on the trucks and bridges needed to keep pushing "boom-boom" to those tubes, then hit the tubes.  I too would put CPs and command infra a bit further down the list, mainly because killing the current -and I will be kind- "Russian system" might lead to better Russian C2 and they appear to be on the side of the Ukrainians right now.  Lets not create Darwinian pressure to promote more talented junior people (I am only half joking here, CPs are going to die if they are found).  I would also prioritize Russian ISR though, particularly tactical unmanned systems.

Regardless, Russians abandoning these systems for the Ukrainian tractor brigade, makes zero sense.    

Edited March 14, 2022 by The_Capt

[panzermartin]

I read that even the Germans didn't inflict so much  damage on Kharkiv. This war will stay as a monument of stupidity of Slavic people killing each other for the sphere of influence of foreign powers. Ukraine is becoming Syria and Russia will be back to the 90s. And rest of Europe will sink in economic crisis when it was obvious its future lied in coming closer with the East . Well whoever planned all this, well done.

[sburke]

Italy is running away with the prize for most Oligarch yachts.

Italian Police Seize Russian Oligarch Andrey Melnichenko’s 468-Foot ‘Sailing Yacht A’ (msn.com)