Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Its great that there's more snow and ice in UKR now - when it melts in the next few days/week it'll really and truly f*ck the RUS mobility off-road for even longer.

^ This, also that statistically, there's more rain in Ukraine during March, April, May. I said at the beginning of the campaign, this would have an effect on RF forces being able to deploy in open country and the only alternative - having narrow avenues of approach on the roads - makes them vulnerable to ambush. It can only get worse!

With regard to the drainage ditches, if you go down on google maps and look at the terrain to the west of Kiev (e.g. Irpin) it's exactly as described; the only way across are a series of elevated tarmac road causeways. They serve as perfect bottle necks, and from what I've seen, they seem to be well prepared with road blocks and set defence in place. I'm sure this explains why the RUS encirclement in the west of Kiev has been very slow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Hippity, hop, mob stop!

This type of movement is obviously why they don’t seem to have much infantry protecting their columns!

These guys are likely DNR/LNR militia conscripts that Russia is apparently using as cannon fodder (even more so than their own soldiers).

Edited by akd
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

If UKR can get proper, coordinated and redundant suppression of RUF battlefield Air then a large scale counter attack with those saved tanks could be very dangerous. 

As noted by others, UKR cannot attack until they can deal with the RUS Air. I dont believe MIGs will do it, but a flexible, networked AA/AD would be sufficient, based on how chickensh*t the RUS AF is when faced with something other than children in schools and mothers in hospitals. Assh*les.

^ And this.... but I wouldn't want to mount any counter offensive without substantial ground attack support. And in the absence of tank busting helis, two squadrons of MiGs are the next best thing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Markus86 said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10598315/Ukraine-war-Putin-fires-eight-generals-rages-FSB-battlefield-failures.html

  • Eight Russian generals sacked over Ukraine invasion failings, Kyiv said today 
  • Putin also said to be furious at secret services for misleading him over resistance

We've seen this pattern many times before -the actions of tin-pot dictators the world over when they realise that their war effort is on the verge of falling apart.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Sequoia said:

And if it's true, did they lie to him to set him up for a fall?

No, it's just what happens with all tyrants who operate a regime based on terror - they end up living in an echo chamber and their advisors tell them what they think they want them to hear, rather than the truth.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

One of my favorite Officer Evaluation Reports I received when I was in the Army stated that "CPT Anderson can always be relied upon to provide his frank and honest opinion"

It was meant as a complement, but I could see it being taken two ways (could also be "this guy is trouble"). The Major who wrote it genuinely appreciated that I told gave him honest advice, even (or especially) if it disagreed with his. He liked to hash things out and depended on having a devil's advocate to do that with.

But then we(I) come from a culture (meaning Army) culture, that mostly appreciates that. And we would know that if we disagreed with something strongly we'd better damn well have a better alternative to propose.

Dave

Ultradave,

Have long liked the British practice when having a council of war before a battle is planned and the CO is soliciting opinions as to the best course to take, of starting with the most junior officer in the room and going by ascending rank, so as to avoid intimidating the lower ranking officers fearing to contradict their superiors who got to speak first. 

On a related note, when I was in high school and thought (was right) I might be going into military aerospace, in which Dad was a EE for decades on all sorts of cutting edge projects, he warned me about something called the directed study. When I asked him what he meant, he told me it was a study in which the commanding general or admiral dictated, in advance, the conclusions of the study, resulting in the subordinates then rushing about to "prove" the predetermined conclusions. Seems to me that this could very well be the way the Russian military wound up in its current terrible, bloody, embarrassing predicament.

As for the devil's advocate, you may be interested to know that the real deal official post in the Vatican underwent drastic changes in 1982 under Pope John Paul II.

https://www.catholic365.com/article/5514/no-the-church-did-not-eliminate-the-devils-advocate-position.html

Regards,

John Kettler

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, akd said:

It was a bit more nuanced than that.  The FSB source said that because this sort of pushback was typical, they would only do the work to defend negative assessments if it was judged a plausible scenario that might lead to use of the intelligence in a reasonable timeframe.  The author used the example of being asked to prepare an assessment of how Russia would be able to respond to a major meteor impact on the country.  Why not simply assess that the state would be fine rather than deal with pushback on predicted failures since the scenario was both so low probability and so difficult to accurately assess anyways? The author indicated that the FSB considered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the same category.

Thanks for that.  What my point was is that they were pushed to produce something that they themselves didn't think was true.  Since they didn't think a war was on the menu they didn't feel it was worth fighting about and so the reports went forward "as is".  But they were cut out of the decision making process where they might have gotten serious and voiced their concerns.

Hmm.  Someone else here speculated that it might be possible that someone within Putin's inner circle wanted this war to fail to create conditions ripe for a power grab.  Certainly possible, as most of Putin's inner circle has careers in the intel services (i.e. they all play games like this).  However, it could also be someone/s really thinking they could pull this war off and didn't want FSB, with all their negative vibes, getting in there and messing with it.  It could also be that the FSB really thought Ukraine was easy pickings and are now trying to cover their butts.  And of course the time honored possibility that nobody wanted to tell the Emperor that his army didn't have any clothes on.

I think sometime down the road we might know what actually happened.  For now it appears that the FSB produced fantasy reports which were acted upon before the FSB had a chance to raise objections.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, John Kettler said:

DesertFox,

Yet more V force SO troops. Have seen so many more V marked AFVs and MT that I believe it's fair to say that the true size of the V force is at least twice what we'd previously seen

Regards,

John Kettler

Question: how big was the assumed size and what is the current estimate based on the above.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, herr lask said:

Looks like this battle is right on top of the first ukrainian campaign mission in CMBS?

 

 

I did some analysis of this yesterday of another variation of this clip with slightly different timings (0.02 in my slide = 0.00) but you'll get the drift

The location is correct and you need to be aware that there are cut scenes taken from different direction ... but quite interestingly ...

486353068_Sequence1.thumb.jpg.c2a53fdc625da1906d815cef808a6a37.jpg

1227803135_Sequence2.thumb.jpg.a56098eef2e4f073782e02a702654df0.jpg

560600179_Sequence3.thumb.jpg.8840aad5e4fdf1e506f8a11beb0e56ae.jpg

Now that you're oriented it is quite obvious in which direction that they drive off in and to give you a clue ... the opposite direction from Kiev.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Here's another fun example of the Russian financial house of cards collapsing in unexpected ways.

How many here have some experience with banking?  Can you please tell the class what happens when an asset used as collateral is no longer viable for securing the loan?  Because the answer is rather fun and I only have a basic grasp of where this can go ;)  We might next see an article about insurance companies shredding paperwork.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was looking for a video I saw earlier in which hard proof was shown the media in Ukraine are using CNN-grade deception techniques (recall the reporter clinging to a pole in the hurricane while in reality a  powerful fan drenched him with water?) to paint a false picture of what's really happening in Kviv. In that not yet found anew video you could clearly see that an artificial barricade and surrounds had been built and the camera positioned in such a way that it could seem to be looking through an embrasure. Yet nothing was happening, the reporter was in body armor, and there was no damage at all to the buildings behind the barricade. Didn't find the video I wanted but I found something far more interesting and disturbing. Part of it was a BBC investigation of who Zelensky really is and where the real power lies in Ukraine. There are extensive BBC interviews with him, and you'll be amazed to know what he was doing before being elected President. The other part of it consists of one brutal exposure (through comparing videos and stills) after another of Russian deceptions, Ukrainian deceptions and media deceptions from a bunch of countries ref events in Ukraine and earlier events. The whole thing is presented in the context of "Wag The Dog", and the doc is interspersed with pertinent scenes from that 1997 film. Knew full well both sides were telling lies and hiding truth in this war, but nothing prepared me for what's revealed in this stunning doc. Some of the techniques revealed weren't even feasible when "Wag The Dog" was made. When it's all said and done at 21:50, you might find yourself wondering how much of "Wag The Dog" was disturbing, provocative fiction and how much was revelation of how credible false realities can be created and used to create uncertainty, fear, panic, even "justify" a war. 

https://inoneplace.com/thewatch/wag-the-dog-in-ukraine-can-you-trust-the-media/

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, akd said:

It was a bit more nuanced than that.  The FSB source said that because this sort of pushback was typical, they would only do the work to defend negative assessments if it was judged a plausible scenario that might lead to use of the intelligence in a reasonable timeframe.  The author used the example of being asked to prepare an assessment of how Russia would be able to respond to a major meteor impact on the country.  Why not simply assess that the state would be fine rather than deal with pushback on predicted failures since the scenario was both so low probability and so difficult to accurately assess anyways? The author indicated that the FSB considered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the same category.

Exactly this. There is plenty of evidence that the elites, the senior intelligence elements and most of the military assumed what the proponents of a "rational" Putin did too...that is was an enormous bluff. How could it not be since they didn't bother to do the most basic footwork? It's the one part of that story that really rings authentic to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...