How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Cobetco]

do t80s burn aviation fuel or is it some other grade powering those turbines?

[Vet 0369]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody know what Russia's 100% domestic aviation fuel production capacity is?  The report that Moscow's airport ran out of fuel got me wondering if there might be a problem with Russia's supply chain now that Shell, BP, and basically the rest of the world isn't interested in fueling their planes to kill Ukrainian children.  One thing that can cut through corporate profit motivations is being tagged as a child killer.

Steve

I would ask if anyone knows how many refineries Russia has. Sure, they are a major oil exporter, but how much do they actually refine for internal use?

[akd]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

How can the airport run out fuel when there are almost no planes flying? Is the refinery/distributor holding back because they are afraid they won't get paid? Because getting paid in rubles amounts to NOT getting paid? Ran out of critical little part immediately? So many questions, but i can't imagine any of the questions, or any of the possible answers are improving Putin's day.

Russia is a big country.  Most people get around by flying.  The train from Moscow to St. Petersburg is (or was) more expensive than a flight.

[danfrodo]

This aviation fuel debacle is certainly fun.  What if the world's businesses were actually able to play a big role in bringing down Putin, just by simply walking away for a little while.  Fascinating to see what sanctions and shutdowns can do to Putin's power. 

[Vet 0369]

10 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

do t80s burn aviation fuel or is it some other grade powering those turbines?

All the gas turbines, aviation, industrial, marine, etc., that I know of, run on JP-4 or JP-5 (kerosene or paraffin in Europe) or natural gas. The old Soviet reciprocating vehicles such tended to burn a fuel that was only one or two refinement stages above tar.

 

[Vet 0369]

Just now, Vet 0369 said:

All the gas turbines, aviation, industrial, marine, etc., that I know of, run on JP-4 or JP-5 (kerosene or paraffin in Europe) or natural gas. The old Soviet reciprocating vehicles such tended to burn a fuel that was only one or two refinement stages above tar.

 

Err, such as tanks,

[BamaMatt]

Arleigh Burkes burn diesel fuel marine, or at least did in the 90s.

[OldSarge]

50 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody know what Russia's 100% domestic aviation fuel production capacity is?  The report that Moscow's airport ran out of fuel got me wondering if there might be a problem with Russia's supply chain now that Shell, BP, and basically the rest of the world isn't interested in fueling their planes to kill Ukrainian children.  One thing that can cut through corporate profit motivations is being tagged as a child killer.

Steve

Gazprom seems to have two refineries, one in Siberia and one in Moscow that is undergoing updates that are expected to be completed in 2025. It isn't the current operationsl status of the Moscow refinery isn't clear.

https://www.ogj.com/refining-processing/refining/article/14201155/gazprom-nefts-omsk-refinery-producing-internationally-compliant-jet-fuel

https://www.gazprom-neft.com/company/oil-refining/third-party-refining/

Edited March 9, 2022 by OldSarge
Additionl link

[sburke]

Korean Air said it canceled flights to Moscow because it can't refuel its planes there (msn.com)

"We were informed by a Russia-based refueling service provider this afternoon that we can no longer refuel our planes at the airport in Moscow," a Korean Air spokesperson told Reuters.

seems confirmed

[Vet 0369]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This aviation fuel debacle is certainly fun.  What if the world's businesses were actually able to play a big role in bringing down Putin, just by simply walking away for a little while.  Fascinating to see what sanctions and shutdowns can do to Putin's power. 

Yeah, shut down the password protected system software used to refine the petroleum, and you can cut the entire country off from fuel; power plants, trains, buses, military, heating oil, etc.

[Vet 0369]

13 minutes ago, BamaMatt said:

Arleigh Burkes burn diesel fuel marine, or at least did in the 90s.

I’m not a petrorefinement engineer, but I expect the refinement level isn’tfar from that of JP.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Vet 0369

[dan/california]

We will know Putin is absolutely, irrevocably bleeped when we see high school kids, and the army being sent out to countryside to try and get some of the crop in by hand.

 

[Vet 0369]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

Korean Air said it canceled flights to Moscow because it can't refuel its planes there (msn.com)

"We were informed by a Russia-based refueling service provider this afternoon that we can no longer refuel our planes at the airport in Moscow," a Korean Air spokesperson told Reuters.

seems confirmed

Why are KAL still flying into Moscow? I thought most were boycotting. Is there a “World Champion Gaming Tournament going on there?

[db_zero]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody know what Russia's 100% domestic aviation fuel production capacity is?  The report that Moscow's airport ran out of fuel got me wondering if there might be a problem with Russia's supply chain now that Shell, BP, and basically the rest of the world isn't interested in fueling their planes to kill Ukrainian children.  One thing that can cut through corporate profit motivations is being tagged as a child killer.

Steve

The Russian economy is said to be on verge of collapse. Ruble is worthless and country cut off from global economic system.

Getting oil out of the ground, refining it and transportation to where it needs to be requires people and if there is no way to pay them with something of value and to even if you could give them worthless rubles or ill liquid yuans what good is it if there is little to nothing to buy?

where’s the incentive to work?

Plus if the current reports of civilian trucks being pressed into service at the front is true then there could be issues with the supply chain…

in the past economic sanctions have been ineffective and taken a while to take hold, but I’m not sure anything on the speed and scale of what the west has done in a very quick, unified and wide scale have ever been done.

There are now moves being made to restrict the buying of Russian gold.

Once the Russian economy collapses they are back into the 18th century. There will be more than just fuel shortages.

Don’t be surprised if we start seeing Russian workers go on strike soon.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by db_zero

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Why are KAL still flying into Moscow? I thought most were boycotting. Is there a “World Champion Gaming Tournament going on there?

Fueling issues, i think.  Distances to Europe are just too far.  JAL and ANA chose to just cancel flights to Europe.

 

[Commanderski]

Russia’s central bank, faced with unprecedented sanctions and a plummeting ruble, said Wednesday it was suspending the sale of foreign currencies through September. 

Between March 9 and September 9, Russian banks "will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens," the central bank said in a statement, adding that it will be possible to exchange cash currency for rubles at any time and any amount.  

Also on Tuesday, American credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded Russia’s credit rating from a "B" to a "C" and suggested that sovereign default is imminent. The ruble has crashed to just 0.0077 against the US dollar on Tuesday.

[db_zero]

27 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

Russia’s central bank, faced with unprecedented sanctions and a plummeting ruble, said Wednesday it was suspending the sale of foreign currencies through September. 

Between March 9 and September 9, Russian banks "will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens," the central bank said in a statement, adding that it will be possible to exchange cash currency for rubles at any time and any amount.  

Also on Tuesday, American credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded Russia’s credit rating from a "B" to a "C" and suggested that sovereign default is imminent. The ruble has crashed to just 0.0077 against the US dollar on Tuesday.

The largest ruble bill you can buy is 5000.

I collect fiat bills and may try to get one just for fun if banks will sell them.

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

All the gas turbines, aviation, industrial, marine, etc., that I know of, run on JP-4 or JP-5 (kerosene or paraffin in Europe) or natural gas. The old Soviet reciprocating vehicles such tended to burn a fuel that was only one or two refinement stages above tar.

As I recall, isn't one of the advantages of a turbine engine that it can burn virtually anything from bunker oil up to kerosene and jet fuel? Not that you would want to burn heating oil in your tank long, especially idling in a convoy car park. But if true, could be a source of maintenance issues in the near future. 

Also I've just come back from a short trip. What did I miss, lol? I have 30 pages of thread to get caught up on 

Edited March 9, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[danfrodo]

This youtube channel is one I've visited quite a few times over the last year.  A good guy w some good info.  His opinion isa counterpoint to Russia-is-failing (aka Steve, et al) analysis.  He thinks that Russia is currently just doing what Russia does, and that the early snafus are not really all that telling. 

Any thoughts?  This is actually his 3rd video since the war started, his earlier ones had similar theme. 

 

 

[dan/california]

This is yet another weight on the Russians morale.

[LongLeftFlank]

Another battlefield panorama, though no shooting in evidence.

More good shooting. I like seeing UA conventional artillery in action; indicates more substance in the forces than just irregular infantry detachments humping around rockets.  That capability will become critical once the fighting becomes more static. Artillery is the long term killer, as we all know, and that hasn't changed. 

Hmm. 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Machor]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

13th day of war, but our jets still flying. From where?

FWIW There's a good chance the TB2s are still operating from within Ukraine. Ukraine bought these with mobile ground control stations, pictured below:

The mobile GCS can control TB2s at a range of up to 300 km. While I couldn't find hard data on the TB2's take-off and landing distances, the video below shows take-off is very short, thus presumably landing as well:

All of which goes to say that Ukraine can easily operate these from the country's road network.

[John Kettler]

Today I learned a new term while delivering a withering reply to OSINTtechnical regarding a statement made in it's tweet that a dead Russian tank's cope cage hadn't worked vs Javelin (top attack). In my reply, pointedly noted there was no proof offered a Javelin was responsible or that it was in a top attack mode if it was. Said multiple witnesses and inspection of the wreck would be the way to determine what really happened. Forgot to mention there'd be missile debris proving a Javelin was used as well, were that the case. Absent that, all that was certain was there was a dead tank. The cope cage mention caused me to research the term's origin, and here's what I found. IN a separate tweet, I savaged the expression "notorious Javelin cage, noting I'd seen precisely ZERO evidence of its effectiveness in combat and that the UA's test was farcical at best, and not against even a tank.

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/cope-cages 

Regards,

John Kettler

[danfrodo]

I wonder how much easier it is for businesses to shut down in Russia when they know the rubles they'd receive is losing value by the minute. 

[The_Capt]

49 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This youtube channel is one I've visited quite a few times over the last year.  A good guy w some good info.  His opinion isa counterpoint to Russia-is-failing (aka Steve, et al) analysis.  He thinks that Russia is currently just doing what Russia does, and that the early snafus are not really all that telling. 

Any thoughts?  This is actually his 3rd video since the war started, his earlier ones had similar theme. 

 

 

I guess I am a little sceptical that a 40+ km convoy that hasn’t moved for 5 days and is in the open on the road behinds bare to the sky in an air parity situation, is really a coiled steel spring.  I mean if they were organized they would be in hides and assembly areas with cam nets up and all around security.

Russian may be trying to grip their logistics problems but everyday they don’t the worse it gets.  Vehicles will start to break without maintenance support, fuel tanks run dry from running in the cold and troops run out of food, there is ample evidence of this happening.  I guess I am not seeing the same FOBs (a concept that really doesn’t work here) or a logistics hub system yet.

The Russians have lost 15 BTGs worth of tanks and a CAA’s worth of logistics vehicles if the open source stuff is accurate.  That is a bit more than a SNAFU and starting to approach operational damage it is hard to recover from.

 I am not calling the Russians done yet but they can see it from where they are, they need to re-start serious offensive action, achieve the preconditions they should have two weeks ago and get on with it before Ukrainian forces chew up their logistics system while they are setting it up.