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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Since Mr. Putin says there is no war with Ukraine, there are no rules of Geneva convention to be applied either. /sarcasm off

While clearly sarcastic, a fair point could be made that one cannot ignore international laws of war on the one hand, and then simultaneously bring charges in international criminal court regarding violations of those same laws. 

That being said I think one crime (the murder of civilians) is a bit more serious than the other (the doxxing of surrendered soldiers). The second is far more common, and to be honest I think the law in this case is out of step with the realities of war. Im not a lawyer or anything, but I have a hard time seeing how Ukraine has treated these soldiers as wrong. 

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54 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Since Mr. Putin says there is no war with Ukraine, there are no rules of Geneva convention to be applied either. /sarcasm off

The convention doesn't restrict itself to "war".  I went and read some yesterday out of curiosity.  It also covers a number of types of conflict.  I think however they may need to revisit some aspects of the convention.  Russia is way over the top violating everything in the convention and is a signatory.  The videos etc are an attempt to break through the Russian media lies in the hopes of getting information to the Russian people on the reality and stopping the war.  The Geneva convention may need to adapt to the reality of social media.

Regarding the crimes committed by Russian troops an argument could be made that as Russia has not declared war, Ukraine is free to try these criminals in their own courts.

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5 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Big news you guys. The US transfered nuclear material to Ukraine prior to the war (according to Russian state media)

As sad as it is, but looks to me Putin is preparing his people to accept the use of tac. Nukes against Ukraine. Remember the average russian has no independant information channels available and is target to state desinformation since he is born.

That doesn´t look good. 

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4 minutes ago, AER0mat said:

I'm impressed that they're trying to use the WMD justification after the fact. They didn't even testify in front of the UN! Amateur hour

Yeah I feel like I've seen this episode before. Show writers are really getting lazy now, reusing plots.

Am I going to have to learn what Nigerian Yellow Cake uranium is again? 

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2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

To be honest I don't see Moldava or Georgia actually joining EU anytime soon. Ukraine might have more chance but they won't get a free pass. So think like 5-10 years, probably.
There is of course ceremonial value in applying for membership and having that granted.

I agree.  I think Ukraine joining the EU or NATO is also not going to proceed all that quickly either.  The point is more that Putin has managed to make alliance with the west an even more enticing move than previously.  A lot of folks (myself included) figured after 1991 that the threat from Russia was not much of a threat anymore.  Even the war already committed on Ukraine seemed a more limited scope and not really requiring a force agreement on the size of NATO.  Putin flushed that all down the toilet.  Peace with Russia seems to require a big f'n stick.  Those countries not formally in NATO need to develop more extensive treaties and arms programs so that further Russia thoughts of military action invoke a reminder of the pain that can be brought to bear.  It also becomes a message to China.  Enough of this sh1t. 

This also means we need to start addressing this move towards authoritarian leaders.  The EU need to seriously address the issue of Orban in Hungary for example.  What exactly does the EU stand for?  

When this war is finally done, the west should invest heavily in rebuilding Ukraine.  F'n Russia can go begging at China's door until we see a fundamental change in perspective.

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Reportedly the strike on Havryshivka airfield (is a part of civil Vinnytsia airport) was conducted with Kh-101 missiles, launched from Russian strategic bombers Tu-95MS or Tu-160 over Black Sea. 8 missiles were launched.

Also Russia anounced missile strikes on Ukrainain defense facttories and plants. I, think first of all Pivdenmash in Dnipro and Artem factory of LUCH DB in Kyiv will be first targets like a factories involved in UKR missile program  

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Russian BMDs, 7 vehicles, abandoned yesterday near Mykolaiv. This was an artillery strike - even close hits forces Russians to disembark and fled. Not all could do it, but I will not post other video with Russian airbornes bodies 

 

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8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian BMDs, 7 vehicles, abandoned yesterday near Mykolaiv. This was an artillery strike - even close hits forces Russians to disembark and fled. Not all could do it, but I will not post other video with Russian airbornes bodies 

 

they fled after artillery strike?  I'd rather flee an arty strike in a vehicle, but this is a nice UA outcome.  I keep asking myself if I'm being deluded by anecdotal evidence, but there's just too many of these abandoned vehicles to deny to that russian army has a very serious morale issue.  This a powerful unit and they all just fled under fire? 

And the earlier video showing entire russian arty battery completely destroyed, that's says UA still has organized army, not just hit & run.  Another thing is that is interesting is how there's no front line for the russians.  All these ambushed convoys and then UA & militia troops just milling about, unconcerned.  So the red areas on the maps maybe should be red polka dots.

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7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I'd rather flee an arty strike in a vehicle,

Probably they were out of vehicles - on other video their bodies lay some further. But anyway you should to turn on engine, maneuvre and gain a speed. And all this sitting in the alluminium can under fire... Even side armor of the tank doesn't protect from clsoe hit of 122 mm +. I, think only crack+, high motivated with fanatism can do this, when artillery rounds is impactimg close.

Edited by Haiduk
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1 minute ago, BornGinger said:

What has happened to this thread? Only four pages of posts since around midnight. Four pages used to be done each hour a few days ago.

It seems the interest has stagnated a bit now when we're into day 10 of this conflict.

I've noticed something similar, but I think thats more reflective of the conflict. The Russian invasion was supposed to be 'reinvigorated' early this week, Remember Putin had put out that 'Kyiv by Monday' dictate. But it seems like the opposite has happened. Excepted in the south and other limited areas the offensive has stalled out. Even where there is movement, its far more positional. Much of the reporting I am seeing on the Reddit livethread has shifted from tactical and operational reports towards the sanctions and the diplomatic front where there is still real change going on. 

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Brave citizens of the occupied Melitopol burn putin (with the words "putin, you are f***ed") in front of the armed occupiers

They weren't yet told they should be afraid of getting hit by a police club and proceed to the nearest IKEA instead.

780x584.jpg

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8 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

What has happened to this thread? Only four pages of posts since around midnight. Four pages used to be done each hour a few days ago.

It seems the interest has stagnated a bit now when we're into day 10 of this conflict.

No I don't think so.  I think it is more it is Day 10 and we are looking to see what is Russia's next move as right now nothing seems to be working for them.  Between their military getting humiliated and western sanctions hammering the economy... when do the cracks start to appear?

The questions of why now for the invasion, how long before the collapse of Russian army logistics etc aren't ones we can do more than guess yet.

Edited by sburke
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4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Two days ago Russians bombed some objects in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi area, Odesa oblast, using RBK-500 cluster bombs. One of the bombs didn't work properly and submunition HEAT bombs PTAB-1M didn't explode

 Зображення

Nice source of anti-personnel/light vehicle IEDs in the near future.

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3 hours ago, akd said:

Yes, but what does Geneva Convention say about Prisoners of Special Military Operation?

I was reading it yesterday, and "whatever you call what's happening in Ukraine" it definitely fits the description of the various armed conflicts that the Convention says it covers.

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