How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

So Putin cuts Facebook & other forums, and law coming out w 15 year sentence for contradicting official war propaganda.  Interesting just how much he fears folks knowing things.  It says he does worry about public opinion.  It'll be interesting to see how well the Big Lie works there.  Goodness knows that utterly absurd Big Lie campaigns never work in the 'civilized' and educated west .......

There was video of reporter asking Russians, on camera, what they thought -- like they are gonna tell the truth on something as widely viewed as CNN!  They'd be arrested ASAP.

[panzermartin]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

Note I said "much of a plan".  You have to admit as a plan it was just a bit lacking.  The backup plan doesn't sound much better.

Yes, it looks more like a half-hearted operation 

[Armorgunner]

can @kraze or @Haiduk or someone else. Translate what the guy behind the camera say? I know its a shocking film, so be aware! But a friend of mine, who happens to be a Russian. Dont belive ****, in what I tell him. He belives that the operation against nazis, is going fine!  

 

[George MC]

Sky news team ambushed. 
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585

[Seedorf81]

1 minute ago, chris talpas said:

I'm not sure how 'chilled' I would be if I were in Ukraine now rather than in safety in the west.

Haiduk is in the same horrible predicament, and in all these years on this Forum I've never heard him utter spiteful words or ask him for revenge or show hate.

He must have the same feelings of bitterness, resentment, horror and yes, maybe an intense hate for the Russians, but he always kept his reactions on this Forum civil.

Maybe I am too sensitive about the spitefulness of one Forummember, but if that is so, than my admiration for Haiduk grows even greater.

[chris talpas]

Just now, Seedorf81 said:

Haiduk is in the same horrible predicament, and in all these years on this Forum I've never heard him utter spiteful words or ask him for revenge or show hate.

He must have the same feelings of bitterness, resentment, horror and yes, maybe an intense hate for the Russians, but he always kept his reactions on this Forum civil.

Maybe I am too sensitive about the spitefulness of one Forummember, but if that is so, than my admiration for Haiduk grows even greater.

I agree that Haiduk has been showing more restraint.  Not meant as a big criticism of you but I'm not sure how forgiving I would appear in the heat of the moment but would hope to show more of the Haiduk behavior.  As I had posted earlier in the thread, I hope the end result of this is eventual regime change in Russia and their reintegration with the world community.

We'll leave it there

[Haiduk]

29 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

can @kraze or @Haiduk or someone else. Translate what the guy behind the camera say? I know its a shocking film, so be aware! But a friend of mine, who happens to be a Russian. Dont belive ****, in what I tell him. He belives that the operation against nazis, is going fine!  

 

Our trooper say: "Well what? Did you storm us, pederasts ? Here is their technic... which all day tried... and all these pederasts, which stormed us throughiut the night... Here they are, bitch... Came running, bitch.... And there also... Is it all... Ran oneself, f...ck ..."

BTR-MDMs, captured in Hostomel and probably theese Russians are from 31st Guard Air-assault brigade.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

POW´s from Russian paramilitary Police Elite Unit SOBR, of the OMON on TV. Among them a SOBR Lieutenant Colonel!

High skilled unit, Spetznas style. But detained now  

 

Very, very powerful “interview!” While the possibilities remain that it was coerced, they look to me to have injuries that can be consistent with battle wounds. Sure, they might be trying to save their own hides, but they were very convincing.

[Armorgunner]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our trooper say: "Well what? Did you storm us, pederasts ? Here is their technic... which all day tried... and all these pederasts, which stormed us throughiut the night... Here they are, bitch... Came running, bitch.... And there also... Is it all... Ran oneself, f...ck ..."

BTR-MDMs, captured in Hostomel and probably theses Russians are from 31st Guard Air-assault brigade.

Big thanks @Haiduk I have unfortunately no likes left. So I give you a +1 here! Sadly some Russians, even living in Sweden. Only watching Russian propaganda, and think the Nazi regime is about to fall. Very, very sadly. And this is one of my best friends at my job. We have girls in the same age to!

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am not as sure as you.  I am thinking he wouldn't pass up an opportunity to kill some NATO forces if he thought he could get away with it.  And that brings me to...

Because sending weapons is different than sending personnel.  Even though Putin can do pretty much anything he wants, as you said yourself he has to be concerned about escalation to some degree.  Weapons flowing to Ukraine was certainly something he would expect since it's been happening for years already.  But uniformed NATO forces coming directly into the fight?  That could be a red line for him.

The US did not send uniformed personnel into proxy wars that the Soviet Union was engaged in.  Stingers?  Yes.  Ammo?  Yes.  Covert training teams?  Certainly.  But no uniformed units. 

Which reinforces my point... both the West and Soviet Union/Russia have been very careful to not put overt forces inside the other's warzone.  A Patriot system would be the first time and Putin won't care what excuse is given for it being there.

US Army puts in a Patriot missile system.  Russia gets lucky and kills it.  Then what do you suppose happens?  Do you think the US does nothing?  No, it will retaliate.  Which then will cause the Russians to retaliate.  Ukraine will be caught in that crossfire.

What the West needs to do is more of what it is already doing.  Moving lots and lots of stuff (including food) into Ukraine as rapidly as possible.  Allowing any Ukrainian citizen who wishes to leave to do so and then provide them with shelter and support once they leave.  Continue to make sure that the Russian economy is headed towards collapse as quickly as possible.  Seek out those in Russia that might be willing to topple Putin's regime.  And be ready to use NATO's military might at any minute if the need arises.

After the war is over the West has to remain united about making Russia pay for its crimes, literally and figuratively.  Some sort of effort to "denazify" Russia so that it is less likely to threaten the world again needs to be a condition of allowing Russia back into the world's societies.

In a perfect world NATO would step in and in a few hours have the entire Russian airforce destroyed and its ground forces paralyzed.  But we do not have a perfect world.

I know this is a difficult concept to accept, but keeping NATO forces out of direct participation is in everybody's best interests.  Including Ukraine's.

Steve

This +1! 
 

while this former military man has a war dog inside struggling to get out, I understand my country’s position. One really great line in an online game I play goes something like “Control your hatred. A warrior is like a finely forged weapon. Once you lose your temper, you lose your effectiveness, and you are no good to anyone!”

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Big thanks @Haiduk I have unfortunately no likes left. So I give you a +1 here! Sadly some Russians, even living in Sweden. Only watching Russian propaganda, and think the Nazi regime is about to fall. Very, very sadly. And this is one of my best friends at my job. We have girls in the same age to!

This is not only in Sweden. Many Russian migrants, living in EU and in USA (especially Brighton Beach) still like a fragment of USSR / putinism mentality. They use all western wellness, technology and social achievments, but hate the West anyway. Many of them even didn't want learn the language of the country, where they leave. Just some more useful phrases. They live in own communities like in Soviet reservation. 

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

On the tactical side of things, I am struck by how much can be done w so little.  With the mud, the russian forces are mostly roadbound.  As they venture onto smaller roads passing through woods & villages the leading vehicles are hit.  The entire avenue of advance just backs up (we know this because the videos are made by the UA forces who own the territory after the attack). 

So it's interesting how in these conditions of mud and mostly smaller roads, even a squad or two can close an entire battalion group pretty easily.  Hit hard, either displace or wait for the next sortie to come down the road.  If spotting shells come in, run back to next position and wait.  ATGMs (+ courage!) really are wonder weapons.

Why are you so surprised? The basic difference between this invasion and Operation Market Garden is that mud is forcing the columns to stay on the roads, and in Market Garden, they had to stay on the roads because of the flooded terrain. Same basic premise of extremely unrealistic pie in the sky planning in both.

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

This is not only in Sweden. Many Russian migrants, living in EU and in USA (especially Brighton Beach) still like a fragment of USSR / putinism mentality. They use all western wellness, technology and social achievments, but hate the West anyway. Many of them even didn't want learn the language of the country, where they leave. Just some more useful phrases. They live in own communities like in Soviet reservation. 

That sounds like our African migrants. They scared the hell out of state television (not State controlled television, like in Russia, just financed. No mather who is PM). And stated that this suburb was not Sweden, and that the TV team had to go away, or else! And this is a big failure in Sweden. But its not proper to discus here! So we leave it there!

[Battlefront.com]

Compare this video from Russian propagandists with all the Ukrainian footage we're seeing.  This video is so 1945 in how scripted and ham fisted it is:

 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Why are you so surprised? The basic difference between this invasion and Operation Market Garden is that mud is forcing the columns to stay on the roads, and in Market Garden, they had to stay on the roads because of the flooded terrain. Same basic premise of extremely unrealistic pie in the sky planning in both.

I am surprised at the apparently AWFUL quality of the Russian planning and leadership. They have a large number of examples of why this attack at this time of year was an poor idea. Seems even minimum competency would be to do this as soon as the ground froze for winter, or wait for May. There is a report That Xi asked Putin to put it off past the Olympics. Having everyone spend that month freezing, drinking, and selling their fuel to drink more may have doomed the entire enterprise

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Compare this video from Russian propagandists with all the Ukrainian footage we're seeing.  This video is so 1945 in how scripted and ham fisted it is:

 

I love the gold cross that the get over the shoulder of the MTLBs and in the BG of a couple other shots. Totally "natural." 

But also, does this really inspire confidence in the Russian war effort? A bunch of nervous looking soldiers jump off the top of an APC (why arnt they inside of it?) thats as old as their grandfathers, then stand around awkwardly as a minivan carrying officers pulls up. Where are the shiney new toys? Where is the GAZ jeep? Are they really just driving around tactical Soccer SUVs? You know they roll....

Anyway this isnt the greatest hits propaganda roll they think it is....

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Compare this video from Russian propagandists with all the Ukrainian footage we're seeing.  This video is so 1945 in how scripted and ham fisted it is:

 

actual dialogue

UKR guys:  What do you want?

RUS guys: We'd like to surrender

UKR guys:  Great.  Please don't punch holes in your gas tank, we can use them still.  Except for that truck back there.  Looks like its tires are shot.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Why are you so surprised? The basic difference between this invasion and Operation Market Garden is that mud is forcing the columns to stay on the roads, and in Market Garden, they had to stay on the roads because of the flooded terrain. Same basic premise of extremely unrealistic pie in the sky planning in both.

I am not saying I am surprised by things being roadbound and the implications.  I am saying I was struck by how a very small force could have significantly disproportionate results in ways that were not available in WW2.  Blocking a dutch road and knocking out tanks required close combat if it's panzerfaust or panzershreck.  If it's AT gun it's highly immobile and so can fire can be concentrated on that point via direct fire or mortars.  But modern squad is killing w ATGMs at hundreds of meters and can displace w/o abandoning equipment. 

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Another Su-25 pilot was taken alive today.

But no upcoming teary-eyed statement of his on camera will make me ever understand how, knowing that those targets are just civilian buildings with absolutely defenseless people, often hospitals, one can pull a trigger and feel OK about the multiple murders and shrapnel traumas/decapitations that follow.

I just don't get it. One has to be absolutely devoid of humanity.

Yes, I guess this is very different from Allied carpet bombing turning Axis cities to so much rubble and fire bombing Dresden and Japanese cities. At least we can acknowledge our own sins.

[akd]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

Very impressive, and I understand that Ukraine is trying to get the reality of this ugly war to the Russian people in this way.

Unfortunately, this rarely, if ever, works. The US pilots being captured by the North-Vietnamese made similar statements, and we older guys surely remember the downed US-pilots in the first Iraq war, early '90s, who had to appear in front of Saddam Hussein's camera's.

How truthful the guys in the video may be, the Russians will believe that they were cohersed in saying what the Ukrainians told them to.

The only result is that these guys will be considered traitors..

 

Does not have the feel of a coerced statement, at least from the older guy. Certainly not like those from Hanoi Hilton (especially not after just a few days there).

I don’t think Russians will say anything about it at all.  If it is real, it is dangerous.

Edited March 4, 2022 by akd

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Chechen fighter of Free Ichkeria with NLAW. Two detachments of Chechen fighters (batalion named after Jokhar Dudayev and battalion named after Sheikh Mansur - but really theese battalions have less a company each) already fight near Kyiv against Chechens of Kadyrov. Blood feud...

As long as the Ukrinians have ten times more of NLAW, I´m happy!........ No I´m not...... I want the Ukrainians to be out of NLAWS, becous that means a lot of dead Russian armor! If Kadyrovs chechens still have NLAWS, it means no destroyed Ukrainian AFV. I hope they dont understand how to use it!

[Armorgunner]

GB had instructors there to teach the Ukrainians to use the NLAW. I Guess, they are not there to teach the Chechens?

[akd]

58 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

There was video of reporter asking Russians, on camera, what they thought -- like they are gonna tell the truth on something as widely viewed as CNN!  They'd be arrested ASAP.

It doesn’t really work that way in Russia, at least not yet (but may be on the fast train to that station).

[Vacillator]

3 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

As long as the Ukrinians have ten times more of NLAW, I´m happy!........ No I´m not...... I want the Ukrainians to be out of NLAWS, becous that means a lot of dead Russian armor! If Kadyrovs chechens still have NLAWS, it means no destroyed Ukrainian AFV. I hope they dont understand how to use it!

I think the guy pictured is a Chechen fighting on the UKR side, unless I'm misreading @Haiduk's post?

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, Vacillator said:

I think the guy pictured is a Chechen fighting on the UKR side, unless I'm misreading @Haiduk's post?

If thats the case. I´m extremly happy. Hope so!