How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Territorial defense volunteers escort the train which evacuates people, probably Kyiv

 

[White2Golf]

19 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

On the encirclement of Kiev, it seems that the area around Hostomel keeps 'changing hands'. Seems that Ukrainian troops are utilizing a sort of mobile 'active defense' and keep hitting troops advancing into the area piecemeal. Now fortunately there is little intel on Ukrainian troop movements but I suspect they aren't digging in there but rather using ambush / anvil tactics and seem to have created a rather effective 'killzone'.
In other words, the encirclement is looking like a pipe dream.

Even if they end up with this encirclement, who would have whom surrounded?   Someone raised a couple of great points about this a few pages ago.  

[Lethaface]

15 minutes ago, kraze said:

I have doubts that putin will risk open confrontation with the West even now, especially now that the world has seen how much of russian might is really just on paper.

He didn't do it with Stingers, NLAWs and Javelins, which already caused a very huge loss for his army - why would he do it with Patriots?

Especially in such scenario that worked well for US during cold war.

However if the West keeps letting him do what he does for some more time - he may really go off the rails but it may be too late for all of us.

His army shelled a nuclear power plant of all things and EU is trying to pretend like it wasn't a big deal. "Hey it didn't explode so everything is fine". That's literally enabling putin right there.

To be frank I think that if Ukraine is able to reach ceasefire conditions, NATO is in sight. But NATO will not be 'on board' with offensive operations on territory that is lost before ceasefire. 
Just my opinion of reality, not necessarily what I 'wish' reality to be.

[riptides]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble!  Microsoft just cut Russia off from new product releases, which includes PowerPoint.  Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?

Steve

Last I checked, I saw a detailed muster and battle plan written on paper. So I think they are one step ahead of MS in that regard.

That is another reason that convoy is stalled. You have to go to each vehicle for write off and status.

[Armorgunner]

POW´s from Russian paramilitary Police Elite Unit SOBR, of the OMON on TV. Among them a SOBR Lieutenant Colonel!

High skilled unit, Spetznas style. But detained now  

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Armorgunner

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

To be frank I think that if Ukraine is able to reach ceasefire conditions, NATO is in sight. But NATO will not be 'on board' with offensive operations on territory that is lost before ceasefire. 
Just my opinion of reality, not necessarily what I 'wish' reality to be.

Russians aren't interested in ceasefire. This war is ideological to them. A some kind of a retarded jihad.

They are hell-bent on destroying Ukraine and doing ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians and won't agree on anything less.

Any ceasefire will be temporary and russians will just do murder or deportation on territories they occupy (see Crimea and Donbass, except this time it will be much worse due to these territories resisting). That would be letting our people die there for nothing, unprotected.

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Microsoft needs to wipe every hard drive in Russia.

Or be more subtle and just do the forced updates that take forever and ever.  Then have the updates add memory leaks that drive computer into the ground, needing reboot w yet another forced update.  Russia will be screaming for mercy in no time.  Oh, wait, this is my life already!

(in all fairness, MS OS & SW has gotten infinitely better than it used to be, but makes for a good joke still)

[danfrodo]

I use a mix of linux & MS systems all day, every day.  It used to be that the linux systems were insanely better.  Now, both are actually really really good.  But those forced updates are sure a nice place to wreck every laptop in russian military....

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 2/26/2022 at 3:01 PM, OldSarge said:

Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics.
    -- Omar Bradley

Large operations succeed or fail based upon the ability of logistics to keep the forward elements well supplied. During the First Gulf war, it was said that you could tell where the U.S. armor forces were by tracking where the fuel trucks were heading.

Exactly! 

**************

https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1499252779571093506?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1499252779571093506|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.miltalk.net%2Findex.php%3Fthreads%2F163010%2F

Late to the party, I bet the 65 miles long convoy outside NW Kiev has been discussed hundreds of times. I still want to add my 2 cents here

A long length convey is no surprise. A Soviet tank division can be 50km long in a single file marching formation.  But what happened on NW of Kiev is a logistic nightmare. Under normal circumstances, one road can barely support one mechanized regiment. But now Russian has to use one road to support the whole army that is 200km away from the rail terminal/supply depot. On one hand, Russian force has to ferry troops forward, on the other hand you have to supply food, water, fuel and large amount of ammunition forward for the planned besiege. The trucks need several re-fuel and maintenance under this 400km back and forth trip. So several small supply depots must be set up somewhere on the road.  No surprise this will cause a huge traffic jam.

Now imaging you have an inexperienced staff officer team from Army HQ to manage the supply convoys on a traffic jam road. The frontline troops urgently request fuel and ammo, their combat readiness degrade with low supplies.  The Army HQ’s first reaction is very likely to send more supplies on the road, which in turn be delayed on the road, causing more congestion. Since the frontline troops cannot get the delivery on time, their voice for more supplies needs become louder and louder. And an inexperienced Army HQ team will send more convoys into this mess, causing more delay and congestion. It’s getting into a vicious circle.

A little bit naughty analogy: When facing a clogged a toilet, many people’s first reaction is to flush the water again. Sometime it unclogs, but many time it will make clog worse.

Sounds familiar? Well, that’s happening everywhere, port congestion, container stuck at the rail terminal while the goods are out of stock in shopping mall and supermarket.  Global supply chain issue.

 

[billbindc]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble!  Microsoft just cut Russia off from new product releases, which includes PowerPoint.  Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?

Steve

Heard from a friend about this who is an expert in IP and related. He pointed out that this is as effective a cyber attack in the medium term as most countries could mount and will take a serious toll on Russia in many obvious and less obvious ways. He seemed a bit awed talking about it. 

[Chibot Mk IX]

39 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

On the encirclement of Kiev, it seems that the area around Hostomel keeps 'changing hands'. Seems that Ukrainian troops are utilizing a sort of mobile 'active defense' and keep hitting troops advancing into the area piecemeal. Now fortunately there is little intel on Ukrainian troop movements but I suspect they aren't digging in there but rather using ambush / anvil tactics and seem to have created a rather effective 'killzone'.
In other words, the encirclement is looking like a pipe dream.

If Russian force coming from east side can secure their supply line,  advance via M02 and then E95 , they can still make an encirclement. But at this moment the Russian force from east advance at a very slow speed. 

[Sequoia]

46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble!  Microsoft just cut Russia off from new product releases, which includes PowerPoint.  Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?

Steve

I took this as Steve making a joke. Am I wrong?

[Lethaface]

23 minutes ago, White2Golf said:

Even if they end up with this encirclement, who would have whom surrounded?   Someone raised a couple of great points about this a few pages ago.  

Exactly, read those as well 

[danfrodo]

is a joke, yes.  If they lost zoom chat, then they'd be doomed.

[Haiduk]

UKR SOF captured T-80BVM

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

is a joke, yes.  If they lost zoom chat, then they'd be doomed.

[Haiduk]

Hostomel, probably 3/03. Anandoned BTR-MDM and MANPADS (Verba?)

One more abandoned BTR-MDM, probably Hostomel too

Edited March 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Chibot Mk IX]

THE WARGAME BEFORE THE WAR: RUSSIA ATTACKS UKRAINE

 

Quote

So, although the number of actual strikes made by the Russians in the conflict’s first 24-hours tracked almost exactly to what was employed by the Russians in the wargame, the impact was substantially different. In the wargame, every strike was focused on eliminating Ukraine’s air force and air defense network. In real life, the Russian strikes appear to have been more widely spread over a range of targets. Thus, the Russians employed far fewer munitions than required to cripple Ukraine’s air defenses or to significantly degrade their ability to control forces in the field. In short, unlike in the game, the Russian attacks were damaging but insufficient to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses.

 

[Lethaface]

48 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

POW´s from Russian paramilitary Police Elite Unit SOBR on TV. Among them a Lieutenant Colonel!

High skilled unit, Spetznas style. But detained now  

 

@kraze, here is example of the FACT that Russian people are human just like every other human. This man gave statement from heart (after few minutes of skittishness), or he is perhaps the best undiscovered actor in the universe.

[BeondTheGrave]

 

I was wondering about this, Is this a ban on future products and updates or is it a total revocation of the license? Did Putin's word just got into 'bad boy' mode? Or is this more of an issue because it leaves Russia increasingly vulnerable to new cyberattacks? Also excuse the reverse order quote, for some reason the editor isn't cooperating on this post. 

45 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Heard from a friend about this who is an expert in IP and related. He pointed out that this is as effective a cyber attack in the medium term as most countries could mount and will take a serious toll on Russia in many obvious and less obvious ways. He seemed a bit awed talking about it. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Haiduk]

UKR AD shot down Russian Su-25 near Markhalivka village, Kyiv oblast, enemy pilot, falling, threw bombs on the village - several buildings were ruined, 6 civilains (including children) got killed. Russian pilot ejected and even engaged our soldiers, but was shot

Markhalivka after the strike

Remains of downed Su-25

Looks like how it was before

Dead pilot (graphic photo!)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNBMYEKXMAA1BII?format=jpg&name=large

His documents and ammunition

Edited March 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Rinaldi]

https://strawpoll.com/polls/w4nWD7vXqgA

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

I have doubts that putin will risk open confrontation with the West even now, especially now that the world has seen how much of russian might is really just on paper.

I am not as sure as you.  I am thinking he wouldn't pass up an opportunity to kill some NATO forces if he thought he could get away with it.  And that brings me to...

1 hour ago, kraze said:

He didn't do it with Stingers, NLAWs and Javelins, which already caused a very huge loss for his army - why would he do it with Patriots?

Because sending weapons is different than sending personnel.  Even though Putin can do pretty much anything he wants, as you said yourself he has to be concerned about escalation to some degree.  Weapons flowing to Ukraine was certainly something he would expect since it's been happening for years already.  But uniformed NATO forces coming directly into the fight?  That could be a red line for him.

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Especially in such scenario that worked well for US during cold war.

The US did not send uniformed personnel into proxy wars that the Soviet Union was engaged in.  Stingers?  Yes.  Ammo?  Yes.  Covert training teams?  Certainly.  But no uniformed units. 

Which reinforces my point... both the West and Soviet Union/Russia have been very careful to not put overt forces inside the other's warzone.  A Patriot system would be the first time and Putin won't care what excuse is given for it being there.

1 hour ago, kraze said:

However if the West keeps letting him do what he does for some more time - he may really go off the rails but it may be too late for all of us.

His army shelled a nuclear power plant of all things and EU is trying to pretend like it wasn't a big deal. "Hey it didn't explode so everything is fine". That's literally enabling putin right there.

US Army puts in a Patriot missile system.  Russia gets lucky and kills it.  Then what do you suppose happens?  Do you think the US does nothing?  No, it will retaliate.  Which then will cause the Russians to retaliate.  Ukraine will be caught in that crossfire.

What the West needs to do is more of what it is already doing.  Moving lots and lots of stuff (including food) into Ukraine as rapidly as possible.  Allowing any Ukrainian citizen who wishes to leave to do so and then provide them with shelter and support once they leave.  Continue to make sure that the Russian economy is headed towards collapse as quickly as possible.  Seek out those in Russia that might be willing to topple Putin's regime.  And be ready to use NATO's military might at any minute if the need arises.

After the war is over the West has to remain united about making Russia pay for its crimes, literally and figuratively.  Some sort of effort to "denazify" Russia so that it is less likely to threaten the world again needs to be a condition of allowing Russia back into the world's societies.

In a perfect world NATO would step in and in a few hours have the entire Russian airforce destroyed and its ground forces paralyzed.  But we do not have a perfect world.

I know this is a difficult concept to accept, but keeping NATO forces out of direct participation is in everybody's best interests.  Including Ukraine's.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Some other AD victories today

Near Volnovaka, Donetsk oblast was shot down another Su-25SM3

Lifetime photo

After Su-25 fell, rescue Mi-8 appeared and... also was shot down

 

This guy today shot down Russian Su-25 fighter jet with Igla-1 in Chernihiv. He is usual post clerck, but had experiense of army service in AA-units. After yesterday bombing of Chernihiv, when bombs hit residential area and killed 47 of people, Russian pilot, which ejected, hadn't any chances to be captured... 

 

Yesterday's downed Su-25 near Makariv, Kyiv oblast

Lifetime photo

Edited March 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

24 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

@kraze, here is example of the FACT that Russian people are human just like every other human. This man gave statement from heart (after few minutes of skittishness), or he is perhaps the best undiscovered actor in the universe.

I doubt he will accept it, but in my opinion this is how Ukraine wins the war, even if it is the long war.