How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[White2Golf]

37 minutes ago, George MC said:

Meant too add near the end you see the tactical drone operator moving behind the unit commander. 

Two things that caught my eyes and ears.  The cameraman was riding in what appears to be a civilian vehicle and the leader using what appears to be a civilian "walkie talkie"?  I heard no "chirp" of it getting encrypted but maybe their stuff does not do that?   

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

Your swear words didn't offend me. I was just joking. I don't care about which words people use here.

Yes, but he has a point.  Technically that link is in violation of forum posting rules.  I'm going to allow it to slip through given what it was and why it was posted here, but it would be great if you guys can try and avoid it if possible.  Just because there's a bloody war of aggression going on doesn't mean all standards go out the window.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Remember the Cuban crisis? NATO was willing to go all the way then and the Soviets backed off. Eventually you must confront him whether you like it or not. Don't believe for one minute he will stop here, his goal is the restoration of the Soviet Union. The breakup he described as the biggest disaster ever. Don't wait till forces from Eastern Europe are once again part of his army. Who could blame them?

 

In reality, the Soviets didn’t back down on anything. John F. Kennedy made an agreement to deactivate the obsolete Hercules ballistic missiles sited in Turkey before the U.S. were intending to do so. So, the Cuban missile Crisis served it’s purpose for the Soviets.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, White2Golf said:

Two things that caught my eyes and ears.  The cameraman was riding in what appears to be a civilian vehicle and the leader using what appears to be a civilian "walkie talkie"?  I heard no "chirp" of it getting encrypted but maybe their stuff does not do that?   

The forces are most likely DNR, less likely LPR, definitely not Russian military.  Well, technically not Russian military even though they were created by them, armed by them, staffed by them, paid by them, trained by them, and equipped by them to follow their orders.  Other than that, just your everyday volunteer separatist.

(addition -> Haiduk just confirmed this is "Sparta", one of the better of the "separatist" units).

Steve

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct.  Concentrating them in and around Kiev, Kharkiv, and Odessa should be enough to effectively deny Russia tactical air support.  Especially rotary aircraft.

The rest, unfortunately, is not something that really can be dealt with without uniformed NATO personnel and equipment.  Stingers and Javelins can be used by anybody after a few minutes training.  A Patriot system can't be.

This is the same thing that happened back in 2014 when the Russians were claiming that "separatists" were crewing captured Ukrainian BUK systems.  Even if Ukraine had lost such a system to the "separatists" (they did not), there would be a fat chance in Hell of enough "separatists" with prior military experience with BUK being available to crew it.  So the obvious answer was it was crewed by a Russian AAA unit.  And thanks to sleuths like BIllingcat, we even know most of their names.

Anyway, the point is that Stingers are going to Ukraine because a) they are effective and b) there isn't anything else to send.

Steve

So why not play by the same rules and send a patriot crew as official and legal volunteers of International Legion - can even ask a few veteran ex-members of the US air defenses if they are willing to go of their own desire and if yes - then just let them.

And you get perfectly deniable thing going:

Providing Patriots as is (in quantities equaling willing crew members to man them) and also crew members not being actually sent there by US - which would be legit.

 

After all this isn't about just two armies clashing, it's about russians doing major war crimes avoiding punishment

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, womble said:

The Russians aren't using CAS birds to level the cities. You need high level, high capability modern AA missile systems to deny the airspace to the units that are bombing civilians. Stinger won't cut that job.

Thats very true. But Stingers denying them the support of their already exposed groundtroops. And lowlevel bombing/rocketing of citys as well.

Stingers wont do the job aginst cruisemissiles, or ballistic ones like the Iskander. But Russia dont have that much of them anyway. And Russia seems afraid to carpetbomb with Tu-22 Backfires, and Tu-95 Bears. Only using them as standoff missile platforms, as of now. 

 

And the US just went out with the news, that most of the Ukrainian Air Force, is still operational. I belive thats why they are afraid to use the big birds over Ukraine?

[Vet 0369]

8 hours ago, Sarjen said:

Geesh. Doomsday panic in Germany is getting real. One German Red Cross department posted a thread how to prepare emergency baggage.

Personally, I consider that “preparation” vs. “panic.” When you live in a forest in the Pacific North West, packing a “go bag” in case of a forest fire is preparation, if you live in the desert, it’s panic.

[Armorgunner]

Russia though, has a lot of rocket artillery. Their 300mm BM-30 Smerch, with their 1800 pound/800kg heavy thermobaric rockets can wreck havoc in citys. So to for the 220/270mm BM-27 Uragan MLRS

Edited March 4, 2022 by Armorgunner

[BornGinger]

7 hours ago, kraze said:

https://russianfield.com/netvoine

According to sociology - 58.8% russians currently support the war outright.

You do know about the saying which goes "A lie, a damned lie and statistics". It seems that the "research" done by this so called Research Group Russian Field isn't correct. 

They have apparently asked 2000 individuals by the use of the phone which isn't a correctly done research. And it wouldn't surprise me if they have talked to 2000 individuals that don't really know anything about what is happening in Ukraine or have asked other especially chosen 2000 individuals.

If they had asked at least 500 000 from different parts of Russia and of different ages the result of people supporting the war would most likely have been much less.

So this "research" is Russian propaganda which only those Ukrainians believe is true that want to find proof that Russians hate them.

Edited March 4, 2022 by BornGinger

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

So why not play by the same rules and send a patriot crew as official and legal volunteers of International Legion - can even ask a few veteran ex-members of the US air defenses if they are willing to go of their own desire and if yes - then just let them.

And you get perfectly deniable thing going:

Providing Patriots as is (in quantities equaling willing crew members to man them) and also crew members not being actually sent there by US - which would be legit.

 

After all this isn't about just two armies clashing, it's about russians doing major war crimes avoiding punishment

See previous messages where we are joking about playing Putin's game too.  But it doesn't work.

Putin's game is all about causing doubt in the minds of democratic countries.  Doubt produces difficulty for decision making.  Because democracies (generally) follow their laws and public opinion, this matters.

If the West did the exact same things that Putin did in Ukraine, Putin would just declare it an act of war and that's that.  He doesn't have to check with his people, he doesn't have to comply with laws.  He doesn't even have to comply with rational thinking.

The real problem with Putin's methods is that the West allowed it to work because they didn't want to confront him like they have to confront him now.  Many of us at the time pointed out this is Appeasement thinking that got us into WW2.  But they hoped, as did the idiots in the 1930s, that Putin would just stop being Putin.

However, Putin violated the rules of his own game.  This time he didn't make much of an attempt to confuse the West.  What little he did try to do was destroyed by the Biden administration's unprecedented release of intelligence information as it was coming in.  This destroyed Putin's game and it is one of the primary reasons the West is so united this time while it was not in 2014.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, BornGinger said:

You do know about the saying which goes "A lie, a damned lie and statistics". It seems that the "research" done by this so called Research Group Russian Field isn't correct. 

They have apparently asked 2000 individuals by the use of the phone which isn't a correctly done research. And it wouldn't surprise me if they have talked to 2000 individuals that don't really know anything about what is happening in Ukraine or have asked other especially chosen 2000 individuals.

If they had asked at least 500 000 from different parts of Russia and of different ages the result of people supporting the war would most likely have been much less.

So this research is only Russian propaganda which only Ukrainians who want to find proof that Russians hate them believe is true.

Add to this that Russians are very, very, very used to their words being used against them by Russian authorities.

Of that 58%, some amount said "Da" when they really felt like saying "Niet".  Probably a large percentage.

Soviet civilian controls included fake polling that was used to identify people that might oppose their rulers.  They would go so far as to set up entire fake opposition groups to recruit people and then march them off to the Gulags.  This is the basis of the plot in Orwell's 1984.  Russia has been increasingly doing this under Putin.

The latter tactic (fake opposition groups) is a fantastic way to keep the population from organizing against the repressive state.  If I oppose the regime, but the opposition groups keep turning out to be sting operations, then how hesitant would I be to join up with one?

It's all very logical and, sadly, very effective.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble!  Microsoft just cut Russia off from new product releases, which includes PowerPoint.  Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?

Steve

[Lethaface]

On the encirclement of Kiev, it seems that the area around Hostomel keeps 'changing hands'. Seems that Ukrainian troops are utilizing a sort of mobile 'active defense' and keep hitting troops advancing into the area piecemeal. Now fortunately there is little intel on Ukrainian troop movements but I suspect they aren't digging in there but rather using ambush / anvil tactics and seem to have created a rather effective 'killzone'.
In other words, the encirclement is looking like a pipe dream.

[Ts4EVER]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble!  Microsoft just cut Russia off from new product releases, which includes PowerPoint.  Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?

Steve

I am still using Office 2007, still works.

[MOS:96B2P]

On 3/3/2022 at 10:23 AM, DesertFox said:

 

 

If I understand the reports about General Sukhovetsky he was both the commander of the 7th Airborne Division and deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA).  At the same time?  Is a deputy commander in Russia similar to an executive officer in the west? 

Executive officers often oversee logistics and administrative issues allowing the commander to focus on the battle.  Was he attempting to run the battle operations of the 7th Airborne while at the same time overseeing the logistics / administrative side of the 41st CAA?   If so, that seems like an impossible task for one man.  This multiple simultaneous command structure may be one of the reasons we see reports of failed airborne/air assault operations and a breakdown in logistics.  I wonder how many other Russian officers are in a similar situation. 

Or maybe I'm just not understanding the articles they are writing about him.  

Edited March 4, 2022 by MOS:96B2P

[DesertFox]

More stuff for ebay

 

 

[ASL Veteran]

1 minute ago, Ts4EVER said:

I am still using Office 2007, still works.

If Russia is using the subscription version of Office though they could be in big trouble

[Armorgunner]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble!  Microsoft just cut Russia off from new product releases, which includes PowerPoint.  Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?

Steve

+100 

[BornGinger]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble!  ...  Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?

There are free programs that work similarly to Powerpoint they can use. I have one on my computer. I unfortunately don't remember what it's called at the moment.

Edited March 4, 2022 by BornGinger

[kraze]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

See previous messages where we are joking about playing Putin's game too.  But it doesn't work.

Putin's game is all about causing doubt in the minds of democratic countries.  Doubt produces difficulty for decision making.  Because democracies (generally) follow their laws and public opinion, this matters.

If the West did the exact same things that Putin did in Ukraine, Putin would just declare it an act of war and that's that.  He doesn't have to check with his people, he doesn't have to comply with laws.  He doesn't even have to comply with rational thinking.

The real problem with Putin's methods is that the West allowed it to work because they didn't want to confront him like they have to confront him now.  Many of us at the time pointed out this is Appeasement thinking that got us into WW2.  But they hoped, as did the idiots in the 1930s, that Putin would just stop being Putin.

However, Putin violated the rules of his own game.  This time he didn't make much of an attempt to confuse the West.  What little he did try to do was destroyed by the Biden administration's unprecedented release of intelligence information as it was coming in.  This destroyed Putin's game and it is one of the primary reasons the West is so united this time while it was not in 2014.

Steve

I have doubts that putin will risk open confrontation with the West even now, especially now that the world has seen how much of russian might is really just on paper.

He didn't do it with Stingers, NLAWs and Javelins, which already caused a very huge loss for his army - why would he do it with Patriots?

Especially in such scenario that worked well for US during cold war.

However if the West keeps letting him do what he does for some more time - he may really go off the rails but it may be too late for all of us.

His army shelled a nuclear power plant of all things and EU is trying to pretend like it wasn't a big deal. "Hey it didn't explode so everything is fine". That's literally enabling putin right there.

Edited March 4, 2022 by kraze

[Commanderski]

I wonder how many countries have covert teams in there doing things we won't read about until 10 - 15 years from now if ever.

I'm pretty sure Poland does along with the US, Britain and maybe Israel. Any others?

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, now Russia's military is in big trouble!  Microsoft just cut Russia off from new product releases, which includes PowerPoint.  Since it is apparent PowerPoint is the only tool they used to create their invasion plans, how are they going to plan future operations?

Steve

Microsoft needs to wipe every hard drive in Russia.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Microsoft needs to wipe every hard drive in Russia.

Including data centers, just tell all of it to melt.

[Lethaface]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

See previous messages where we are joking about playing Putin's game too.  But it doesn't work.

Putin's game is all about causing doubt in the minds of democratic countries.  Doubt produces difficulty for decision making.  Because democracies (generally) follow their laws and public opinion, this matters.

If the West did the exact same things that Putin did in Ukraine, Putin would just declare it an act of war and that's that.  He doesn't have to check with his people, he doesn't have to comply with laws.  He doesn't even have to comply with rational thinking.

The real problem with Putin's methods is that the West allowed it to work because they didn't want to confront him like they have to confront him now.  Many of us at the time pointed out this is Appeasement thinking that got us into WW2.  But they hoped, as did the idiots in the 1930s, that Putin would just stop being Putin.

However, Putin violated the rules of his own game.  This time he didn't make much of an attempt to confuse the West.  What little he did try to do was destroyed by the Biden administration's unprecedented release of intelligence information as it was coming in.  This destroyed Putin's game and it is one of the primary reasons the West is so united this time while it was not in 2014.

Steve

The difference is that this time he has somehow triggered a snare in 'the West' and short of declaring war 'we' have activated, not to say mobilized. When I look at how help is now organized around, even for 'refugees', I'm happy but also see some hypocrisy vs other refugees.

Anyway, while many people in the West who have experienced the cold war probably are very reminiscent and activated for that reason, I have to admit that this war is also impacting my emotions especially because the intent of the war is to subjugate a people and deny them their own way of living. While this is unfortunately not unique in this world, this is a rather shocking development overall not in the least because the aggressor being Russia (with all her context).

Over here there is quite some impact, personally spend the workday on 'shields up' double checking IT security measures and impact of recent proceedings; basically any supplier with ties to Russia / Belarus is a problem for anything public/semi-public.

[Baneman]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

More stuff for ebay

I loved seeing that guy pop out of the hatch with his phone in hand - I was imagining he's looking up a YouTube video on how to start the tank. Because of course there'd be a YouTube video for that !