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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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11 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Unconfirmed: Suspicious moves of military equipment in Kazakhstan. Is Tokayev going to help Putin?

 

Let's not add such unconfirmed information to the thread. If there's really any mass redeployment going on, I'm sure it will be spotted from the air and made public from confirmed sources soon enough. Until then, it could just be any regular troop transport spotted by a civilian and made into a story.

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8 hours ago, db_zero said:

Some are saying that nuke plants have improved safety features since Chernobyl so the danger is overblown.

I know nothing about this. Maybe someone on here who does can explain if above is true or not.

After my Army service the rest of my career was in the nuclear engineering field (just recently retired). 3 degrees in nuclear engineering and 34 years experience in reactor plant testing, reactor plant design, radiation protection, and nuclear non-proliferation.

In the case of these plants not only have safety features improved, these particular plants are a completely different design than Chernobyl. The Chernobyl "explosion" (it was steam and hydrogen, not a nuclear explosion), was caused by a variety of factors including a rather bizarre design, and operating the plant in a dangerous manner, and then when things went wrong, operators not understanding how the plant would react. EVERY action they took made the situation worse and fed right into the design flaws.

A VVER reactor like the ones being fought over is a pressurized water reactor with up to the current standard safety features, and a robust containment building (Chernobyl didn't have a containment, and Russia had ironically justified that as their design and careful operation not needing it). To cause a serious problem you'd have to cut the off-site power to the plant, while also damaging/destroying all the backup diesel generators or their infrastructure that gets the power to the plants. What do they need power for? Cooling. Even a shutdown reactor needs continual cooling, and how much depends on the power history - how long operating at what power level before shutdown. Spent fuel is stored in cooling pools which also require water cooling. These are inside the containment. This is what happened at Fukushima - the Tsunami swamped the diesel generators and knocked out all electrical power to the region, so they got hot. The explosions seen at Fukushima were from hydrogen buildup in the containments. The sparkers that are designed to safely burn it off actually caused the explosions (old design). The containments at Fukushima were very old, dated designs.

It appeared from the feed that the fighting was going on around office buildings adjacent to the actual containment. These would be engineering, admin, labs, that are part of the plant. 

In short, while having a battle on the grounds of a nuke plant is generally a very bad idea, the potential for serious problem is certainly there, but not on the scale of Chernobyl or even Fukushima.

Hope that helps. Also, it seems this morning that the Ukrainians withdrew and Russians are controlling. Don't know what that means about operators, but the shooting stopped, thank goodness.

Dave

 

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1 hour ago, BornGinger said:

Mind your language.

Too ugly hoodies and stickers on that page. I rather use my money to buy stuff which are being sent to the refugees in Poland which we have done through work.

Misunderstanding? Only the last link of the tweet was the funny part. The rest is not. Sorry if the rest offended you.

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BBC is still referring to the attack on the nuclear plant as "shelling", but on the video they show on their article, it's clear that it was not shelling as in indirect fire from above, but direct fire at point blank range against the top floor of the building:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60609633

(second half of the clip embedded in the article)

Wondering if the Ukrainians had a force there to protect the plant, and they were the target of the attack? It seeems like very targeted fire.

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17 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

BBC is still referring to the attack on the nuclear plant as "shelling", but on the video they show on their article, it's clear that it was not shelling as in indirect fire from above, but direct fire at point blank range against the top floor of the building:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60609633

(second half of the clip embedded in the article)

Wondering if the Ukrainians had a force there to protect the plant, and they were the target of the attack? It seeems like very targeted fire.

Looks like the Russians have seized the power plant, the UKR forces can't be everywhere 🙄 

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19 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

It says Hostomel, morning of 04/03/2022. Would fit. BMDs in platoon size. I guess they are VDV?

I think too. And to me, it confirmed one more time (with all others videos) that V is not for Naval Infantry but initialy Airborne Infantry (and now Kadyrov's troops too). I think the V for Naval Infantry is a confusion of the ukrainian author with VDV.

m5j2.png

V markings are at least north of Kyiv (theoricaly)

Edited by Taranis
Bad habit to write Kiev and not Kyiv
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1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

I have seen sooo many footage of destroyed, abandoned hardware and I'm wondering how the Russians aren't routed yet. They are nearing the casualties of the whole Afghanistan war in a week's time. It's madness.

Simple answer: there are a lot of them.

Slightly less simple: they fanatically worship and follow their "great leader" until they get hit by the javelin in the face. Then it's turn of a next fanatic cannon fodder group.

One soldier had words written on his armor that quoted putin "you are all going to die and we will go to heaven".

Hostomel, a prime example, is like this giant scrap heap at this point, spetsnaz, VDV, kadyrovites got wiped there multiple times at this point and yet they keep coming as if expecting a different result each time.

Edited by kraze
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3 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

just an hour erlier, they were the Russian elite. Now just waiting for sunflowers to grew on their bodies

Sorry for being morbid, but most of them were so burnt that I don't think anything will grow from them.

If these guys were the elite, I think we can expect the war to end soon.

The whole thing reminds me of photos from the last days of WW2.. except this time, this kind of carnage and destruction and vehicles left for lack of fuel is not happening in the chaos of the last days of a major war, but at the very beginning.

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