How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Kalynivka village, Mykolaiv oblast. YOU SHALL NOT PASS!!! (C)

It has been a long while since I flexed my combat engineering muscles but that is a professional job right there.  The fact they bagged a tank on the bridge (which is the only thing that makes sense here) is pretty rare.

[Armorgunner]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I dont know about defeating of Russian 1st tank army, looks like usual spirit rising propaganda, but there is a fact - yesterday units of 93rd mech.brigade engaged the Russians near Mokovskyi Bobryk village in 60 km SW from Sumy. One tank carries "4" marking, probably 4th Guard "Kantemirovskaya" tank division

 

Is´nt 4th Guards Tank Division the only unit which use the T80U? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_Guards_Tank_Division#Equipment

 

First Guards tank regiment of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division. Uses T-72B3 maybe M?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2nd_Guards_Motor_Rifle_Division#1st_Guards_Tank_'Chertkovsky'_Regiment 

[akd]

2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Is´nt 4th Guards Tank Division the only unit which use the T80U?

Yes.

[kraze]

23 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

There have been demonstrations against leaders in many countries and politicians have done what they can to remove the leader they don't like. That is all according to the law.

If later on USA or Russia, or another country, is removing the leader in a non-lawful way just to put their puppet on the throne won't make things better.

And even if the people would revolt and imprison or kill the hated leader and put a loved new leader in the office, there's always the possibility that bankers and businessmen will "convince" him to go back to the former way of leading the country.

Just look at what has happened in history where there was a revolt and the bad leader was removed. The new one(s) didn't make life better for the people.

Then people will get rid of that bad leader again.

Only people are responsible for their life and people who they choose to lead them.

A great recent historical proof of that is South Korea. It went through half a dozen extremely corrupt leaders, not much different from DPRK, before they got where they are - each time changing the bad leader.

In fact learn the history of any developed country - it's always about people changing the bad leader until they got the better one.

No change means no desire for change.

Every russian must be held accountable or we'll repeat 1991 once again. If not 1939.

Edited March 3, 2022 by kraze

[kraze]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

 

Sorry, but the modern Russian people have not once been tested with a real war.  These are all small wars that cost nothing from the standpoint of the average Russian citizen, and steeped in constant propaganda, what reason was there to question their leader’s wisdom?  Now the boys will start coming homing in zinc like it is the 80s again (but maybe times ten) and the Russian economy will completely implode.  These are all just and right things, but there is the potential to bring about enormous change in the attitudes of everyday Russians.

Except Afghanistan brought zero change in attitudes of an everyday russian.

When Yeltsin staged a coup to take power in Russia and ordered an invasion of Moldova, Georgia and Ichkeriya - russians couldn't care less.

[Haiduk]

35 minutes ago, akd said:

Sorry, but the modern Russian people have not once been tested with a real war.

What part of "average Russians" are in army service now? Their army have many servicemen with combat experience, especially sergeants and officers of Western and Southern military districts. From Afganistan to Chechnia, Georgia, Donbas 2014, Syria. Yes, all they had a moods "we will take Kiev in 2-3 days" and "Nobody can't resists to Russian overhelming power", but this is not cancelling their "breathing of war" like while Russian society, which feed agressive military propaganda. 

I think, when Russia will lose this war, this "average Russians" will have "national shame feeling" deeply inside themselves. And this evil will await own time to grow up again if there will no "de-rushization"  (from the word "rushizm"). Russians want such leader lilke a Putin, they want "make Russia great again", but not in spheres of science, wellness etc. How said one of their politics "The greatness of nation is determined by capability to destroy a world". If Putin will gone, another similar will come. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

Except Afghanistan brought zero change in attitudes of an everyday russian.

I am pretty sure that is not true.  A quick search on the links between Afghanistan and the Fall of the USSR produces a lot of contrary evidence to that effect.

https://faculty.washington.edu/aseem/afganwar.pdf

https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/uresposters/180/

As examples.

[Bulletpoint]

Maybe the Ukraininans won't even need to destroy that huge column of Russian vehicles north of Kyiv. If they keep pushing north, they might just capture the whole thing and drive it back to town. Or am I getting into wishful thinking territory here?

[riptides]

The change in Russia attitude will happen in the coming days. When they go to the bank, when they try to go shopping, when they try to communicate to their families abroad. When their vacation plans have been interrupted and lastly when they go on social media and either cannot, or get redirected in some fashion.

The next few days are critical for the average urban Russian.

[Haiduk]

Reportedly Russian jet shot down over Kyiv, It fell in SW area near Chayka airfield (small airfield for training flights, parachute training and private light aircraft)

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

If russians are ordinary people and only top of the leadership of Russia is bad - then who are those 800k serving in russian army and another 800k in reserves? Is it putin firing Grads at apartment blocks?

But most importantly - who lets putin stay in power for 22 years and all other bloodthirsty dictators before that?

If russians are against the war - then why are they doing literally nothing?

In Germany allies forced "ordinary" germans to bury all the people they murdered or at least forced them to come to concentration camps and stare at what they've done. While also forcing germans to pay reparations for decades to come. Not to mention that bastards felt at least some part of how it felt for their victims when allies entered Germany.

If "ordinary russians" are not at fault - then how come they always pick the worst bastards to lead them for the past 300 years?

Sometimes asking different questions is necessary to see things in another light or perspective. But I think that now is not the best time perhaps, nor is this the best place.

I know plenty of Russians are against this war, I'd suspect most of them especially if they have info about what's going on. Let's hope from all this unnecessary destruction and loss of life, some things can change for the better. 

[Haiduk]

SOF fighters ambushed small Russian convoy

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

Destroyed Russian column in Voznesenck, Mykolaiv oblast

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Taranis]

Quote

15:16 L'ESSENTIEL

• Partage

Emmanuel Macron pense que « le pire est à venir » après son échange avec Poutine, « très déterminé », selon l’Elysée

Le chef de l’Etat français pense que « le pire est à venir » en Ukraine après son échange avec Vladimir Poutine, qui a fait part de « sa très grande détermination » à poursuivre son offensive, dont le but est « de prendre le contrôle » de tout le pays, selon l’Elysée.

Lors d’une discussion téléphonique d’une heure et demie à sa demande, le président russe a affirmé à son homologue français que l’opération de l’armée russe se développait « selon le plan » prévu par Moscou et qu’elle allait « s’aggraver » si les Ukrainiens n’acceptaient pas ses conditions, a déclaré la présidence française. « L’anticipation du président [Macron] est que le pire est à venir compte tenu de ce que lui a dit le président Poutine », selon l’Elysée.

Emmanuel Macron thinks "the worst is yet to come" after his exchange with Putin, "very determined", according to the Elysée
The French head of state thinks "the worst is in" Ukraine after his exchange with Vladimir Putin, who expressed "his very great determination" to continue his offensive, whose goal is "to take control" from all over the country, according to the Elysée.

During an hour and a half telephone discussion at his request, the Russian president assured his French counterpart that the Russian army operation was developing "according to the plan" planned by Moscow and that it would " get worse" if the Ukrainians did not accept its terms, the French presidency said. "President [Macron's] anticipation is that the worst is yet to come given what President Putin has told him," according to the Elysee.

From "Le Monde"

Edited March 3, 2022 by Taranis

[c3k]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

 

What hope does Russia have against a country that does stuff like this? 

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap.  Well, if the Russian people haven't figured out yet that things are going well in Ukraine, this will surely get them thinking that might be the case:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3418415-on-march-4-russia-set-to-impose-martial-law-ukraines-nsdc-secretary.html

If (or perhaps when) Martial Law is implemented in Russia, the entire game changes.  This will allow Putin, theoretically, to push aside all kinds of constraints on his ability to go "all in" for the war in Ukraine.

To us in the West, this is an obvious admission that the war is going very, very, very badly for Russia.  Probably worse than we think.  I expect a lot of people will get arrested in the first couple of days.  This is going to look like the purges of Stalin days but perhaps with less people getting shot on the spot.

Steve

Julia Ioffe reporting today that her Russian friends are all racing to the Baltics border bc there are no plane tickets. A friend said to stop texting her until she was out bc they are searching phone for 'anti-regime' material (and then denying exit). The friend was frantically cleaning out her phone cache.

[OldSarge]

11 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

I have also seen this behavior before, about 40 or so years ago in a news paper story about an attempted bank robbery in Italy. The “Red Brigade” attempted to rob a bank by shooting out the lock of the doors with sub machine guns. They pulled and pulled on the doors, but the doors didn’t budge, so they left in disgust. The picture in the news paper article was a closeup of the door with a sign that said “push” in Italian!. True story.

A lot of that goin' around.

[billbindc]

Significant: https://www.agents.media/rossijskie-vlasti-sanktsii/

[Baneman]

24 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Genius ! He knows it's non-taxable too ! 

 

[Haiduk]

Here is fresh Kadyrov's fighters, arrived 2-3 days ago. Now they launced counter attack on our troops on the line Hostomel - Bucha - Irpin'. Reportedly there are 4 hours of heavy clashes. The artilley battery in our district shot about each 2-3 minutes, probably in this area

 

 

[Sarjen]

How Putin came to power. A twitter thread. Very informative and a must read.

TL;DR Putin initially built his reputation and popularity through a Special Operations disguised as a small victorious war. He repeated this little trick every time his image waned. In Ukraine he just scaled up, mistakenly

 

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

I'm sorry but no. If "ordinary people" aren't happy with someone in power - they get rid of that guy.

If they don't - they are happy with the guy.

Well, I most certainly do not agree.

I feel that your posts are becoming a little, well, too spiteful for my liking..

[DerKommissar]

I think US/EU/NATO can expedite lasting peace, here. Why not help organize the Opposition with our many clandestine services? Alienated oligarchs, officers and officials are prime candidates for informants.

The objective being not only to topple the Tsar, but also ensure the following regime is pro-West. It will be necessary to keep them on a short leash, at least for the foreseeable future.

We don't have to look far for examples of pro-Putin politicians getting extra support from their friends abroad. Why can't we do the same?

Finally get those alphabet agencies to use their funding for something positive?