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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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I was also asking myself what Russia's plan would be after encircling Kiev. Unless they move the whole frontline in breadth and depth a good margin away from the siege, it would become some sort of battle for Alesia a la Ceasar. With the difference that in 2022 a 'double wall' would be very difficult to achieve conceptually. How are they going to protect the southern half of the sieging forces against the rest of Ukraine?

Basically it would mean a strip of static (siege) forces in a circle around Kiev, 'surrounded' by what is most of central/west Ukraine. 

Unless they would be able to secure a frontline to at least the Dniepr, I'd expect that surrounding Kiev won't really work and or turn in a bloody affair. 

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2 minutes ago, Taranis said:

The history of a 5 axis plan resumed in one word SNAFU !

It's kind of interesting that at the beginning of the war (one week ago!) it was generally agreed that Ukraine would be difficult to defend because the Russians could attack from nearly all directions at the same time. Now the story is that the Russian 5-axis plan was weak and impossible to pull off.

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8 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:

I would think, but am not sure, that the Ukraine SF would have night vision equipment?  If not, I would hope we are sending.

@Haiduk 

Of course, they have. On the middle photo, SOF fighters armed with UKR-developed bullpup "Vulkan" (other name "Maliuk") - this is a deep redesign of AK. These rifles also use army recon units (recon battalions and brigade's recon companies), but is less number.

операція ЦРУ в Україні

Сьогодні в Україні відзначають День Сил спеціальних операцій | Defense  Express

ССО пропонують надати особливі розвідувальні повноваження

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5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

According to the BBC Charkov has fallen.

You mean Kherson did.

Yeah they were zerg rushing it for 2 days straight, had to halt advances on Mariupol and Mykolaiv - I wonder how much of a pyrrhic victory that is

Edited by kraze
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7 minutes ago, kraze said:

Russian BBC?

NO, MY MISTAKE! I've read Charkov instead of Kherson. My humble apologies, Kraze.

The headline was: First major city falls as Russian attacks continue. My imagination and stupidity did the rest. Almost had a heart attack...

Edited by Aragorn2002
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I dont know about defeating of Russian 1st tank army, looks like usual spirit rising propaganda, but there is a fact - yesterday units of 93rd mech.brigade engaged the Russians near Mokovskyi Bobryk village in 60 km SW from Sumy. One tank carries "4" marking, probably 4th Guard "Kantemirovskaya" tank division

 274614480_1790016397861809_5286285740481843548_n.jpg.823c06a6fed3ba2179f69df3e64bd5ef.jpg

274995272_1790016877861761_5656873511245224996_n.thumb.jpg.ec0d347fc400e02ff4c222869fe5acd1.jpg

275088731_1790017314528384_9208418299522012839_n.thumb.jpg.28d365a6026823c1c1571fe3d0b503c6.jpg

274928829_1790017357861713_3444686155065412136_n.thumb.jpg.a96c9e445f8581568f95b2869d41986b.jpg

Edited by Haiduk
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Just now, Haiduk said:

I dont know about defeating of Russian 1st tank army, looks like usual spirit rising propaganda, but there is a fact - yesterday units of 93rd mech.brigade engaged the Russians near Mokovskyi Bobryk village in 60 km SW from Sumy. One tank carries "4" marking, probably 4th Guar "Kantemirovskaya" tank division

 274614480_1790016397861809_5286285740481843548_n.jpg.823c06a6fed3ba2179f69df3e64bd5ef.jpg

274995272_1790016877861761_5656873511245224996_n.thumb.jpg.ec0d347fc400e02ff4c222869fe5acd1.jpg

275088731_1790017314528384_9208418299522012839_n.thumb.jpg.28d365a6026823c1c1571fe3d0b503c6.jpg

274928829_1790017357861713_3444686155065412136_n.thumb.jpg.a96c9e445f8581568f95b2869d41986b.jpg

Would love to see some live footage from that fight.

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I often read in the medias that the strong ukrainian resistance is something like a surprise for russian (that i can understand by exaggerated russian confidence) but by pseudo western expert (i can't).
Honestly, I was always sure that the ukrainians are ready to fight to the death. Am i alone ?
Only with Maidan they proved that they were ready to fight for their rights and convictions. They had learned from the Crimea and knowned that a day or a another the russians will attacks. It's still a surprise I agree but not a full surprise.

Yes, surprise and blitz attacks could be succeded, the overwehlming  fire power too, but the breaking the will to fight and freedom of ukrainian people was impossible.

By this post, I also want to say that's a really a great honor to be an humble and modest member of this great community.

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6 minutes ago, borg said:

A major general of the Russian army has been killed in the fighting  - Andrey Sukhovetskiy

commander of the Novorossiysk guards mountain air assault division of the Russian Airborne Troops (VDV) ?

Edited by Taranis
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Regarding the views of the ordinary Russians: You might say it's impossible that people are so brainwashed that they have no compassion at all. But surreal video chats show that the Kremlin's propaganda is stronger than any sense of humanity in Russia

Taken from this tweet:

And this one is interesting too. From academics in Russia.

This taken from the one answer to above tweet:

"

  1. Negative influence of the USSR: beginning with the immigration after 1917 and Stalinist purges and ending with the destruction of the will to live freely to the falling apart of the country. People didn’t live normally and so don’t want to live normally now, those who protest are mostly very young.
  2. A non-trivial share of the people are idiots. They can’t or, for many reasons, don’t want to absorb non-one-sided information and just want to be “outside of politics”. And the most accessible information is, sadly, propaganda.
  3. Propaganda is literally EVERYWHERE. On TV it reaches absurd proportions, and besides that special bot farms write a huge number of online comments, forming a false public opinion and swaying those who are uncertain to their side.
  4. A huge army of siloviki (strongmen). Ukraine’s Maidan could happen because resistance [against the protestors] was not comparable to that of Russia and Belorussia. The Russian government has a huge horde of policemen and Rosgvardiya [National Guard of Russia] who get paid decent money just for brutally beating people who simply show up to a demonstration (and actually get pleasure out of doing so because they are idealistic and see enemies in those who show up). Then they imprison the people for 30 days and then create problems for them in their studies or work. And any resistance leads to a huge prison sentence. I’m not even mentioning, that people can be jailed for several years for tweets or social media posts (this is not an exaggeration!)

"

Edited by Sarjen
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It has nothing to do with brainwashing or propaganda.

It also has nothing to do with "siloviki" - look at countless videos showing 50 russian "protesters" running from 2-3 cops or 100 russian "protesters" idly filming 2 cops arresting 1 guy.

Russians live by war, it's what makes them feel better, since they are incapable of fitting with the civilized world for whatever reason that doesn't matter really.

It's why nobody should repeat the mistake of the '90s and help russians again. They do not treat that as good will, they will use that for another war again and again.

It's very important to realize.

Edited by kraze
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In Russia, as with a lot of countries,  there is a disconnect between the people in the big cities (who tend to be better off,  more liberal and more internationalist) and people in rural communities (who tend to be poorer, more culturally conservative, and more nationalistic).

Putin apparently has a fair bit of support in the rural population. Not so much in the cities. 

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18 minutes ago, Taranis said:

commander of the Novorossiysk guards mountain air assault division of the Russian Airborne Troops (VDV) ?

Yes . Source is online and corroborated by Russia I think . A quick search online with his name on Google and Twitter comes to light 

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33 minutes ago, borg said:

A major general of the Russian army has been killed in the fighting  - Andrey Sukhovetskiy

I'd be surprised if that's true. Aren't major generals usually a good distance behind the front lines? The Russians have barely advanced since day 1, so it would be perfectly normal for major generals to still be in Russia.

Then again, there is nothing that has not surprised me in this war so far, so why not this too.

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2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'd be surprised if that's true. Aren't major generals usually a good distance behind the front lines? The Russians have barely advanced since day 1, so it would be perfectly normal for major generals to still be in Russia.

Then again, there is nothing that has not surprised me in this war so far, so why not this too.

Nicolai Vatutin.

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47 minutes ago, borg said:

Yes . Source is online and corroborated by Russia I think . A quick search online with his name on Google and Twitter comes to light 

No. His last duty was deputy commander of 41st Army. Russian social networks say either sniper shot or precision arty strike. Yesterday there was an information about UKR forces hit Russian command center near Dytiatky village nrthern from Kyiv. Maybe these news are related.

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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10 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Yes, maybe a Seelow Heights like order when Zhukov ordered the commanders to be in first line with their troops to bolster the assault.

Indeed, but what I meant was that Vatutin was killed by the Ukrainian resistance in the Ukraine in 1944.

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2 hours ago, kraze said:

That's another erroneous logic. Iraq was an unfinished, unpunished deed from early '90s. Iraq invaded and occupied Kuwait and, ultimately, got almost no consequences for it. It was pushed back but it didn't change and was a constant threat to neighbors, incl US allies.

US citizens do not have a fascist ideology driving them, unlike russians, and that's why most still don't make that important connection.

Russians on the other hand, as people, are extremely far right, in the 90s they effectively replaced communist ideology with fascist.

For US an invasion in Iraq caused much uproar.

For Russia invasions into Moldova (not even a year passed since USSR fell), Georgia, Ichkeriya, Azerbaijan, Armenia (russian specops staged a coup by murdering the parliament), Yugoslavia, Ichkeriya again, Georgia again, Syria, Ukraine and Kazakhstan triggered NOTHING.

Russians live and breathe the war.

The failure to understand that is the reason you read the list of non-stop tragedies and crimes above.

Wasn't sure to post this, but do it anyway. 
I understand you are now angry, it is logic. I don't know how I would have felt.

However, in my experience with Russian people they are ordinary people like the rest of the world. Every three has rotten apples. Unfortunately these have concentrated at top of the leadership pyramid in Russia.
 

As we have seen in the past, for example Germany before and during WW2, at times the conditions for a people are such that they can 'let' these things happen. That doesn't mean that all / most Russians by heart are the same as the policy of their country.
May peace be with you and Ukraine.

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Russians are turning Kharkiv and other towns of Kharkiv oblast in ruines

The building of Kahrkiv university campus

The school in Kharkiv

Зображення

Residential buiding, Kharkiv

Зображення

Residential buildings in Izium, Kharkiv oblast. This town is a one of the centers of defense instrumental-making  and optics

Зображення

Sumy State Univercity building

Зображення

 

For the last day and night 34 civilians were klilled and 285 wounded in Kharkiv oblast

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