How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[GAZ NZ]

Watch "Russian Invasion Takes Massive Blow From Ukraines Military - Ukraine War Update" on YouTube

 

https://youtu.be/CAVXebmZUqA

15 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Without getting into the weeds on this, targeting civilian buildings in and of itself, is not a violation of the law of war, context matters.

deliberately targeting civilians is a war crime.

targeting civilian buildings occupied by enemy military units or accidentally hitting civilian buildings while targeting enemy units is not.

Amnesty International always takes an extreme view of this, they also accused U.S./UK/NATO of war crimes for doing similar acts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

 

Watch the video I posted above

It explains alot of things along with the general fronts  and Russian limited movement and civilian involvement 

A supply depot was 300 m from the school they hit with cluster mutions 

They obviously missed 

Russian missiles are not as accurate as American 

The situation is becoming more complex with civilians now becoming combatants and the more that do this   may give the green light to Putin to do carpet bombing 

The president asked his people to fight so the more that do they become combatants 

I'm not sure how this effects being able to attack civilians if they are armed 

It's interesting that inhabitants of one town as in the video link apparently stopping the Russian forces without force 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Good compilation of bang-bangs here. Yup, they're hitting the soft transport.

It's a long walk home, Ivan....

[Bulletpoint]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

It's a long walk home, Ivan....

Actually it isn't.. at least the Russian border is pretty close.

[GAZ NZ]

So from the video link I posted it appears they are controlled by roads to a greater extent 

Watch "Russian Invasion Takes Massive Blow From Ukraines Military - Ukraine War Update" on YouTube

 

https://youtu.be/CAVXebmZUqA

So why invade now and not wait till better weather conditions to manoeuvre 

In Syria I appreciate Russian experience there but they potentially had more room to manoeuvre there forces (Syria forces Wager group etc) 

They do not have that here and appear to be bottlenecked and in face of severe Ukraine resistance 

 

[BletchleyGeek]

A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)

https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/

of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).

Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.

I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.

The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.

I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.

To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:

A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste

[cyrano01]

44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Air Forces Command claimed that yesterday Russian Tu-22M3 launched 16 missiles at Kharkiv from Russian territory. In result of this strike several buildings were ruined in residential areas with dozens of killed and wounded.

If this is the case it speaks volumes about the failings of the Russian SEAD/OCA operations. Having to use stand off weapons to lob HE into urban areas at this stage of the war does suggest that the VKS is still worried about Ukrainian air defences otherwise they could overfly the target  high enough up to avoid MANPADs and light AA and pick their spot with either guided or dumb bombs.

[Haiduk]

Next Russian convoy fell into the hands of territorial defense fighters. Sumy oblast

 

[GAZ NZ]

Yeah with all the attack going on with its supply and logistics where are Russian forces so called Anti Drone weapons 

I don't see any air dominance which is surprising

 

[Commanderski]

Saw this reposted on FaceBook:

[Haiduk]

Zhytomyr now. Strike in 95th air-assault brigade barracks area. The brigade now on Donbas and partially probably near Kyiv.

[billbindc]

Gentlemen, 

Alperovich is quite good and I think has the future mapped out pretty well: 

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1498772954938757121?s=20&t=1cS3z5ZxgXSLO529zLFyqw

 

[Baneman]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Next Russian convoy fell into the hands of territorial defense fighters. Sumy oblast

After all the worry about how Western supplies were going to reach the front, it turns out that most of the supplies are coming from the east ! 

[keas66]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Gentlemen, 

Alperovich is quite good and I think has the future mapped out pretty well: 

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1498772954938757121?s=20&t=1cS3z5ZxgXSLO529zLFyqw

 

I am not so sure - one can't really  start a brutal grinding attack on the cities of Ukraine  if one does not have a functioning logistics chain

[DesertFox]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Zhytomyr now. Strike in 95th air-assault brigade barracks area. The brigade now on Donbas and partially probably near Kyiv.

It is really odd what they do. On the 6th day of the conflict they strike barracks. Makes absolutely zero sense to me, because every unit from day one of a conflict after having been alarmed is long dispersed in its assembly area near their tactical staging area.

Also this behaviour:

 

It is literally waiting for an air, drone or artillery strike. Very odd.

Edited March 1, 2022 by DesertFox

[LongLeftFlank]

28 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I am not so sure - one can't really  start a brutal grinding attack on the cities of Ukraine  if one does not have a functioning logistics chain

Agreed! Sure, they can bomb and shell randomly for some time, but occupying and 'securing' cities, even against irregular defenders, requires intensive consumption of all kinds of materiel, especially highly trained and motivated infantry....

It's becoming increasingly clear that logistics isn't just an Achilles heel, but the entire lower half of the Russian colossus seems to be MIA!

Also, I'd look for more, ahem, 'Bayraktars' to start marauding in the night skies very soon... kind of like the hydra, the Ivans kill one and two more appear in its place. Tanker truck drivers may find their life spans approaching that of 1915 British subalterns.

Also, I beg to differ with Alperovich here:

Putin's only hope now is likely to rapidly unleash utter brutality on the Ukrainian people (which he has already started on by shooting MLRS rockets into Kharkiv and other cities) in order to get major concessions from Zelensky in the negotiations

In my view, the longer these sieges go on, the more likely NATO finally says screw it and rolls a multinational mech corps to secure the Lviv-Zhitomir corridor (and stare down the Belarusians) and a Marine Force (preferably French participation) to Odessa.  Maybe the Brits and Germans can cover Lithuania?

Edited March 1, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

But while I see that it seems like the Russian offensive doesn't work as planned - though, who knows what the plan really was? - and logistics appear chaotic and all... I keep looking at the map and for me it looks like the Russians are making quite some progress towards the Dnepr.

In short, the Russian performance so far has been a fustercluck.  This is the consensus of every professional military analyst out there.  While I have seen some quibbling about this or that detail, the overwhelming weight of evidence is that Russia thought they could just walk in and take Ukraine.  Not in weeks, in days. 

To me, this is not a surprise that the war for Russia isn't going well.  I've been predicting this sort of result from an outright war for the last few years, and I am technically not a professional analyst (though... I am paid by governments for my work on this topic... so, am I?  That's a weird thought!).  What has surprised me, though, is how much I overestimated Russia's capabilities and underestimated how dramatically Ukraine could take advantage of those failings.

There's a ton more to say on this topic, of course, but I think the short cut is to read some other opinions offline from here.  This is a very good source with very succinct reports produced each day (in pairs):

https://www.understandingwar.org/

Steve

[kraze]

47 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

If this is the case it speaks volumes about the failings of the Russian SEAD/OCA operations. Having to use stand off weapons to lob HE into urban areas at this stage of the war does suggest that the VKS is still worried about Ukrainian air defences otherwise they could overfly the target  high enough up to avoid MANPADs and light AA and pick their spot with either guided or dumb bombs.

They lob HE into urban areas because they want to punish Kharkiv for resisting and terrorize the population.

With actions like this russians very much admit their ground forces are trash when their target actually shoots back

[Fenris]

Long time CM player/forum lurker (think my original member number was 169).  Been following this thread for a couple of days - thanks for all the info.

Chalk me up as another one of the crowd who is scratching their head wondering what the hell was Putin thinking.  Just doesn't make sense to me.  Seems like a huge miscalculation, lose-lose situation for Russia. 

I'm angry because all this suffering is completely unnecessary.  I really hope that one of good things that comes from all this blood is the end for Putin and Lukashenko.  I don't hold out much hope for Russia but maybe Belarus can go the way of UKR and become a democratic and join the EU when this is all done.

 

 

 

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

yeah cause you are getting old just like me  

And that makes us among the luckiest individuals in the world; we keep getting older! I celebrate every birthday as a victory.

[Vacillator]

So the '40 mile long armoured column' has been on my mind for a while.  A few questions:

• Is it really armoured to a large extent?  The satellite images and some recent online talk suggest it's mainly supply?
• Has it been attacked yet?  The speed of advance suggests it might, but advancing large groups on single roads is not the easiest of propositions, so it could just be the clogged road problem we're all familiar with?
• If it hasn't been attacked, why not - is it better-protected than some of the other convoys which have been hit, or is there less opposition on that route (I wouldn't think so)?
• If it's as vulnerable as it looks, why would you send a huge very slow-moving column down a road like that - even in a game like CM it would give me nightmares?

[DesertFox]

Also this in Schytomyr (how far is that from the frontline?) What is the purpose in leveling civilian residential areas?

 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by DesertFox

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

So the '40 mile long armoured column' has been on my mind for a while.  A few questions:

• Is it really armoured to a large extent?  The satellite images and some recent online talk suggest it's mainly supply?
• Has it been attacked yet?  The speed of advance suggests it might, but advancing large groups on single roads is not the easiest of propositions, so it could just be the clogged road problem we're all familiar with?
• If it hasn't been attacked, why not - is it better-protected than some of the other convoys which have been hit, or is there less opposition on that route (I wouldn't think so)?
• If it's as vulnerable as it looks, why would you send a huge very slow-moving column down a road like that - even in a game like CM it would give me nightmares?

Best info out there indicates it is mostly trucks, not armor.  The length of the column is a bit of a misnomer because it is being measured from start to finish, not bumper to bumper.  There's a lot of gaps.  Some indications is it's being periodically delayed due to mechanical breakdowns.

The question is... what are that many trucks doing all going down the same road at the same time?  Resupply?  Resupplying what, exactly?  The frontline forces in that area are not all that great in size and are engaged in tactical combat.  Surely they don't require THAT much stuff to function.  So this could be staging for something larger that is to come next and we haven't seen what that is yet.

It could also partially be a light infantry force that was supposed to be occupying already conquered territory.  Now thrown into the battle to do the dirty work of urban fighting.  Which would be a bad idea because any force that was designated for occupation duties is not likely good enough to conduct urban warfare ops.

So... yeah... who knows

Steve

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Fenris said:

I don't hold out much hope for Russia but maybe Belarus can go the way of UKR and become a democratic and join the EU when this is all done.

I guess that bit of politics doesn't really belong here but I don't think either Ukraine or Belarus should join the EU right now. Formal criteria side that isn't even their fault. With every member state still having veto power everything always boils down to the lowest common denominator and more members - obviously - makes things only more messy. Not to mention our own set of aspiring autocrats with whom we have to deal. Oh well.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Baneman said:

This.
For a couple of days now the news headlines have been screaming fear about a "40km tank column" when the reality was always that it was a 40km column with some tanks. You'd think journalists would make at least some effort to grasp what they're talking about.

And the speed of their progress either says they're hyper cautious now ( and that won't help when they have to push against a defence ) or they still have massive logistical issues.

Please reference Steve’s “Vehicle Identification Chart,” Media column about 10 or 15 pages ago in this thread.

[Kraft]

Drone view of 2 vehicles - following the ID Chart: Russian tanks - getting hit.

4 more POWs, unrelated as far as I can tell:

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Kraft