How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Some of them are already doing that by themselves...:

 

The face of Shoigu yesterday said it all, really.

Well, he is targeted by sanctions, so he probably has known better times.

[BeondTheGrave]

 

[Holien]

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Bayraktar's strike. At least minus one Buk or even more because of detonation of missiles. 20 km NW from Ivankiv, Kyiv oblast

Should have targeted the one to the left as more vehicles in blast range. Wonder why the right one was chosen? 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Ukrainians have shown themselves to be very brave, but by arming civilians, Ukraine has also blurred the distinction between combatants and non-combatants, and I fear this will lead to really bad things down the road.

This is not unconrol sharing of the weapon. You come to enlist center and enlists either to local Territorial defense battalion as reservist-contractor, and receive all gears and weapon, or like a volunteer, attached to this battalion, and then, you receive only a rifle with ammunition (or you can take own legelly bought rifle). So, these units are combatants, because they are acting under subordination of local Territorial Defense Command and local civil administrations, which during martial law times also are a military administration.

BTW. USSR in 1941 also armed dozen thousands of civilians in so-called "fighter battalions" (rus. "istrebitel'nyi battalion") or united them in so-called "people militia divisions". Why in that case it is god and why in our cas it is bad?  

Edited February 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, Holien said:

Should have targeted the one to the left as more vehicles in blast range. Wonder why the right one was chosen? 

Not sure obviously, but the targeted vehicle seems to be a TELAR (all in one including radar), while the other seems to be only carrying missiles.

[Holien]

The UK created the homeguard in desperate times...

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is not unconrol sharing of the weapon. You come to enlist center and enlists either to local Territorial defense battalion as reservist-contractor, and receive all gears and weapon, or like a volunteer, attached to this battalion, and then, you receive only a rifle with ammunition (or you can take own legelly bought rifle). So, these units are combatants, because they are acting under subordination of local Territorial Defense Command and local civil administrations, which during martial law times also are a military administration.

BTW. USSR in 1941 also armed dozen thousands of civilians in so-called "fighter battalions" (rus. "istrebitel'nyi battalion") or united them in so-called "people militia divisions". Why in that case it is god and why in our cas it is bad?  

Out of curiosity do you or anyone else know if the territorial defense command has some kind of regular uniform for fighters? I once read in WW1 that Belgian milita soldiers were issued a unique hat on mobilization. But the hat was seen as pointless, so it was often discarded. Have the Ukrainian militias adopted a new solution? Arm bands or something? 

Maybe some of those German helmets I've heard so much about.....

Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[akd]

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Not sure obviously, but the targeted vehicle seems to be a TELAR (all in one including radar), while the other seems to be only carrying missiles.

yeah, there is no way to guarantee the secondary detonation, and the Bayraktar munition is quite small, so prioritize wrecking the higher value vehicle.  This may also have been first munition release with second held for follow-up.

Edited February 28, 2022 by akd

[Probus]

Dang, Page 71! I’m still reading page 60!  Lots to catch up on. 

[Holien]

2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Out of curiosity do you or anyone else know if the territorial defense command has some kind of regular uniform for fighters? I once read in WW1 that Belgian milita soldiers were issued a unique hat on mobilization. But the hat was seen as pointless, so it was often discarded. Have the Ukrainian militias adopted a new solution? Arm bands or something? 

Maybe some of those German helmets I've heard so much about.....

Yellow gaffer tape around the arm from what I have noticed. 

[akd]

Kharkiv:

 

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is not unconrol sharing of the weapon. You come to enlist center and enlists either to local Territorial defense battalion as reservist-contractor, and receive all gears and weapon, or like a volunteer, attached to this battalion

Thanks for clarifying. I saw some videos that made it seem like they were just dumping rifles out the back of a truck, and anybody who wanted could grab a weapon and ammo.

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

BTW. USSR in 1941 also armed dozen thousands of civilians in so-called "fighter battalions" (rus. "istrebitel'nyi battalion") or united them in so-called "people militia divisions". Why in that case it is god and why in our cas it is bad?  

World War 2 saw massive atrocities against civilians, and the Germans often excused this by "partisan hunts". I know they would have murdered civilians anyway, but I'm also thinking of other wars where it has been difficult to see the difference between armed and unarmed civilians - the American wars in Viet Nam, Iraq, Afghanistan...

 

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Out of curiosity do you or anyone else know if the territorial defense command has some kind of regular uniform for fighters?

Contractors of TDBs in most cases can receive standard MM14 camo uniform, volunteers mostly can equip themeselve on their own taste. But there is big lack of gears, radios, helmets for these "home guard" units, so western aid can be useful. 

PS. And yes. Yellow tape it's a classic since 2014 and not only for TBDs

Edited February 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

Wow, what a crazy weekend!

So I figure I might be able to add to the discussion on the whole state of things, people normally have to pay for this but I like you guys so much you can have it gratis.  

We are currently in a human social singularity and have been since the beginning of the pandemic.  Historians may very well point out that 1991 to 2022 was one big singularity.  By that I mean the coin is literally in the air and there is no real way to tell how it will land.  So here we are all spinning in a massive uncertainty and trying to cling onto certainty, very human.  The best we can honestly do right now is enhance our strategic agility and collective resilience because no one really knows how this thing will unfold (trust me). Predictive assessment and projections are about as accurate as throwing dice in these situations so I really encourage everyone to avoid getting to attached to any one version of reality.

So that all said, here is what we can say:

War, all war, is a human social activity that is defined by a collision of certainties.  It is a theory with primary components of: a version of reality, communication, negotiation and sacrifice, all laid overtop a foundation of culture/identity and power.  Right now this is a three way war (at least): Russia, Ukraine and the West (for want of a better word).  I include the West not only for the material and volunteer fighters but the incredible amount of information warfare being waged all pretty much in the direction of Russia.  Further the West also has a vision of reality and certainty stake in all this.

So what?  Well the versions of reality by all parties is pretty clear by now, Russia's is a still a little vague but it is hard not to see an overall aim here.  Communication is literally happening live on YouTube and Twitter in all its forms. Negotiation is ongoing in so many dimensions it would be impossible to see them all.  Sacrifice, which is more than the obvious tragedy of loss of life it is what each side is willing to lose in order to win, is largely unknown outside of some really big rocks (e.g. The west is not willing to sacrifice New York for Kyiv).  This war is definitely existential for Ukraine, maybe for Russian and very impactful for the western based view of the world order.  In summary this system is still in collision and it is almost impossible to tell where it will land; if you want to know how a war ends, you have to fight it first. 

So what can we tell so far?  Well for that I take a look at the deeper power frameworks:

If we take Power as Will, Strength, Relationships and Opportunity (there are other models but this one works):

- Opportunity.  The options spaces for a short sharp war, which probably served Russian ends, is pretty much closed.  And here I mean for all sides.  Ukraine has dug in and I am not sure they would listen at a local level if the Ukrainian government begged them to put down arms.  Russian military operations have not gone according to plan.  There is too much evidence of stalls, logistical screw ups and frankly disturbing losses (mins/dis information caveats accepted - some of this equipment being towed by Ukrainian tractors are Div level assets).  The Russian quick definitive war options spaces have likely collapsed unless they are willing to escalate to the WMD level.  The West has swung the other way, dramatically.  Soft support and kinda weak signals have been galvanized in a manner I find shocking to be honest.  This, and the fourth party in this fight, the people of the global community, is also something I am not sure anyone was ready for.  So what?  Opportunity-wise Russia is facing one of two spheres of options: negotiate a "just enough win" or dig in for a long hard grind.  Ukraine is looking to "just lose enough" or pretty much "hey Russia go f#ck yourself" and wage a hybrid war for the history books (we are talking Iberian Peninsula "war to the knife" type stuff).  There have been zero signs of regional Ukrainian splits beyond the Donbas (and even there), so while Balkanization is likely on the table there is a lot of space between initial bargaining positions.

- Relationships.  This could not have gone better for Ukraine if they actually sat down and workshopped it as a movie script.  Russia is isolated and villainized to a point I am not sure even the most optimistic western planner could hope for.  China and India are basically staying out of this as far as I can see, while Russia's allies are Belarus and...?  I mean if its true, the freakin Chechens (modern day Cossacks) said "no thank you".  Only the most delusional Russophile could describe this as anything but a total relationship disaster for Russia and enormous victory for Ukraine, at least so far.

- Strength.  Well this is a deep rabbit hole but I am pretty sure most experts will (and are) saying that Russia still has an enormous military advantage (even subtracting the nuclear equation).  Their economy is crashing a lot faster than many thought so unless those "military contractors" on the Russian side are being paid in USD, it is going to hurt eventually.  But Russia is a big machine that will take a long time to choke out economically - at least that is the theory, I am beginning to wonder.  So if this turns into a long grinding war we will likely see urban sieges (wow that takes me back) and a brutal insurgency that is really not good for anyone.  Russians will bleed, heavily and Ukraine will take decades to recover.  In the end, neither side is showing an inability to muster and project military power, at least for now.

- Will, the church of warfare, and it definitely applies here. Whose will break first?  Not the West, our stakes are much lower and we are pretty much all in for the little guy, plus we are not hurting.  Putin really has only one option space wrt to western Will and that is nuclear war; however, he will likely suffer a 9mm headache if he tries to go that far.  Ukrainian Will, well one can only go on online video and open source here but it seems pretty clear that Ukrainian will to fight has escalated in the last 5 days, not diminished.  Compare the Ukraine to the Afghan National Army vs Taliban last Aug if one wants a stark contrast of the concept of Will.  

Russia, hoo buddy, lets sit down and have a conversation.  So things have definitely not gone according to any sane plan.  The Ukrainians are really pissed off and are digging in hard, they own the ground and are being supplied by the best the west can give them and that cheque is pretty close to blank.  So, how bad do you really want the Ukraine? I mean really want it?  This is making that little misadventure to Afghanistan back in 79 look pretty benign.  You can probably "win" this militarily but it may very well break your nation trying to do it.  Russian Will is right now the center of gravity for this whole thing and time is not on its side.  I am not sure the Russian people have the stomach for a months long siege of Kyiv (In 16-17, it took 115k Iraqis with western support and all the airspace 9 months to take Mosul from about 12k ISIL fighters), so what does next Christmas look like for Russians, cause I suspect Ukrainians are already planning for it. 

Anyway, just keep watching but I do recommend that we take mental health breaks too because this is still got room to be one crazy ride.  Oh and remember while you are at it that there are those, even on this forum, who cannot take mental health breaks, this is not theoretical for them so try and keep that in mind too.

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is not unconrol sharing of the weapon. You come to enlist center and enlists either to local Territorial defense battalion as reservist-contractor, and receive all gears and weapon, or like a volunteer, attached to this battalion, and then, you receive only a rifle with ammunition (or you can take own legelly bought rifle). So, these units are combatants, because they are acting under subordination of local Territorial Defense Command and local civil administrations, which during martial law times also are a military administration.

BTW. USSR in 1941 also armed dozen thousands of civilians in so-called "fighter battalions" (rus. "istrebitel'nyi battalion") or united them in so-called "people militia divisions". Why in that case it is god and why in our cas it is bad?  

Oh that is so the right answer..

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

I saw some videos that made it seem like they were just dumping rifles out the back of a truck, and anybody who wanted could grab a weapon and ammo.

This video is true, but you can't get a weapon until you officially enroll and your passport data is entered to MoD and police database. 

[Aragorn2002]

27 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 

Excellent, bring them aboard.

[Aragorn2002]

17 minutes ago, Probus said:

Dang, Page 71! I’m still reading page 60!  Lots to catch up on. 

That will teach you, Probus!

[Lethaface]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

yeah, there is no way to guarantee the secondary detonation, and the Bayraktar munition is quite small, so prioritize wrecking the higher value vehicle.  This may also have been first munition release with second held for follow-up.

Seems that there were follow munitions and or secondary detonations in this longer clip:

 

[BeondTheGrave]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Russia, hoo buddy, lets sit down and have a conversation.  So things have definitely gone according to any sane plan.  The Ukrainians are really pissed off and are digging in hard, they own the ground and are being supplied by the best the west can give them and that cheque is pretty close to blank.  So, how bad do you really want the Ukraine? I mean really want it?  This is making that little misadventure to Afghanistan back in 79 look pretty benign.  You can probably "win" this militarily but it may very well break your nation trying to do it.  Russian Will is right now the center of gravity for this whole thing and time is not on its side.  I am not sure the Russian people have the stomach for a months long siege of Kyiv (In 16-17, it took 115k Iraqis with western support and all the airspace 9 months to take Mosul from about 12k ISIL fighters), so what does next Christmas look like for Russians, cause I suspect Ukrainians are already planning for it. 

This is such a good point, especially re: Mosul. TBH I've also been thinking about Afghanistan '79. But as I recall (correct me please) '79 was a lot closer to 2001 Afghanistan or 2003 Iraq than what were seeing here. The Afghan national army basically collapsed and the Russians were able to step in and prop up their desired figurehead in Kabul. It was in propping him up long term that they had trouble. Much like with 2003, if you wave your magic wand and 'pull out' before the going gets tough, it would have looked like a successful little adventure. What this reminds me more of is the Vietnam 1965 situation, though admittedly Russia is more like the North Vietnamese side operationally. By that I mean, you have a war which blurrs the line between insurgency and regular warfare. The hybrid force is being supplied by quantities of external weapons to keep them in the fight. And for reasons external to the conflict, one side's 'opportunity space' is pretty limited. IN Vietnam this was the US, in Ukraine this is Russia. Both neither can really do much more than they are/were doing, except incrementally ratchet up the pain and commitment. Vietnam almost broke the US politically (see 1968) and IMO Putin's grasp is nowhere near that strong. And if you accept my Vietnam analogy, the North Vietnamese never gave up. They didn't have to because the only limits on their operations were manpower and strategic mobility. The USSR and China provided them with the weapons and economic assistance required to stay afloat. If the US & EU do the same for Ukraine? Well thats a dynamic I wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of. 

[BeondTheGrave]

8 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Seems that there were follow munitions and or secondary detonations in this longer clip:

 

The Vietnamese learned this lesson fifty years ago. Dont concentrate your AD assets, mix high altitude missiles with low altitude coverage. For want of a single ZSU the Russians lost 8 high value AA missles, a radar, and maybe two launchers?

[George MC]

Interesting review of Russian airforce and it’s (to date) low visibility from RUSI  

On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

[keas66]

I am becoming  increasingly outraged at what I am seeing  .  Its making my blood boil in fact  . Hard to try and view this naked aggression by Russia with a neutral outlook .

[cyrano01]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 Russian Will is right now the center of gravity for this whole thing and time is not on its side. 

 

 

 

Truly the night belongs to Charlie (Von Clausewitz that is).

[kraze]

16 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Russia, as a state since it’s inception 1,000 years ago or more has always been xenophobic 

I'm sorry what?

Russian history can be traced at best back to 1721, when a former tatar vassal state Muscovy got its freedom and decided to suddenly be a part of "civilization".

Russia has no relation to Rus. In fact Russia and Rus has literally as much in common as Romania and Rome. Rus and Rossiya are even spelled differently in russian.

Rus was never xenophobic. In fact Rus and Lithuania eventually formed an alliance to fight off mongol invaders - actual ancestors of Russia through Muscovy. In fact Rus had the largest political representation in Great Duchy of Lithuania and Rus due to being the most populous part.

 

Muscovy itself was a very savage muslim country that occupied its first Rus territory only in 1578 - Novgorod. Before that Muscovy-Russia had near zero territorial relation to Rus.

Russia occupying some territory and stealing its history became a modus operandi since.

Edited February 28, 2022 by kraze