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Should my monkey stand down? Or be at the ready?


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I don't mind it being late, what I do take exception to though is being left in the lurch.

Yes I always per-order from BF, but I have to agree that this time I'm less than impressed by the silence. Could have done with being thrown a bone but Friday again and ..................:confused:

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Last week, with a few minutes to kill, I went back and looked and two historical Combat Mission data points: the time between the manual being put online and the release date, and the day of the week in which the product was released. My survey was limited to Marines, British, NATO and CMBN. Based on this "scientific" study, I forecast release on Thursday, March 8, 2012.

The first data point - the time between the manual being released and the product being released - vary considerably for past releases with 21 days on the high side (for CMBN) and 3 days on the low (NATO). So, if we drop CMBN since this was a new game and look just at past CM modules that were released, we see the average delay between manual availability and release is 10 days and the median is 8 days. This gives us an initial forecast somewhere between Wednesay and Friday of next week.

Looking at the next data point (day of week the product was released), Battlefront has never released a CM product on Monday or Friday. They released NATO and Marines on a Thursday, British on a Wednesday, and CMBN on a Tuesday. Given that, we can toss out Friday and narrow our forecast to either Wednesday, March 7, or Thursday, March 8, with Thursday being the more likely day.

Is this analysis statistically valid? No. Do I have insight into what is going on at Battlefront? No. Did I have too much free time on my hands? Yes. But, I stand by my forecast until I'm proven wrong.

Enjoy your last few days with the Americans versus Wehrmacht before mix our forces with the Brits, Canandians, Poles and Waffen SS.

Bob

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Excellent analysis. You have potential, Lieutenant. There may be a Captaincy in your future. That is, if you play your cards right, and don't let anyone else know about your fascination with barnyard animals.

Just my .02, with NO insight. If I were running a company about to make a release, I'd like to have Monday as my "last chance workout". Put it to bed the previous Friday, maybe look at it a little on Saturday, but definitely take a break and review it with fresh eyes and a rested mind. Monday fits the bill for that kind of day.

Bookending the beginning of the week, there at the far end, is Friday. I know that no man is perfect. Hence, nothing from his hands attains perfection. There will be issues. A Friday release would mean any issues would leave customers frustrated all weekend. I'd keep Friday in my hip pocket as my tactical reserve to deal with the unknown, but foreseeable, issues which will pop up.

Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday: that's my bet. The question remains, "which week"?

:)

Ken "a guy with NO knowledge, NO hints, NO communications from behind the screen, NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH"

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<snip>Just my .02, with NO insight. If I were running a company about to make a release, I'd like to have Monday as my "last chance workout". Put it to bed the previous Friday, maybe look at it a little on Saturday, but definitely take a break and review it with fresh eyes and a rested mind. Monday fits the bill for that kind of day.

<snip>

As a software developer myself I cannot count the number of times we have put the product "to bed" Friday which caused the poor testing team to spend their whole weekend testing. What happens the next week totally depends on what the testers find. If things are well then they get a few more days to make sure and we ship it. If things are not we have emergency fixes over the weekend or at the beginning of the week. If things are really bad we end up starting over again. Often putting the next build "to bed" Friday again:D

This is a tricky time during a release. There is always a list of known bugs and someone needs to make the call as to which to hold the product for and which live with. Those are hard choices, especially when you know you have customers that really want the product:D In fact in my industry we *never* tell our customers when a new release is coming out. The only people clamoring for a product to ship are internal stake holders. I cannot imaging the pressure there would be if we had customers with shipping date expectations.

Ian a guy, same as Ken "with NO knowledge, NO hints, NO communications from behind the screen, NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH" :)

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The anxiousness of you guys amazes and amuses me. I have had a serious love of wargaming for almost 50 years. During that time I have occasionally looked forward eagerly to the release of some game or other, but never at the pitch of you guys. Sooner or later the game would fall into my hands. In the meantime, I had a life filled with other things to do and think about. Maybe not having an internet during most of those years was an advantage as I didn't have a crowd of anxious guys all being anxious together. This forum kind of reminds me of the waiting room in the obstetrics section of a major hospital, except none of you can claim to have fathered the child.

:D

Michael

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As the eagerly awaited first module for "Combat Mission: Battle for Normandy" is being finalized, we're happy to ease the wait a little by making public the Module Manual for "Commonwealth Forces".

While Lt. Smash pursues a probabilistic method to answer the question 'when?', I prefer to latch on to the word 'finalized' (sic) ;) in the above quote and attach entirely subjective interpretations as to the length of time it implies. I would assume that finalise couldn't possibly mean any length of time exceeding one week. Therefore, I expect to be picking off Jagdpanthers with PIATs by Tuesday evening latest.

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The anxiousness of you guys amazes and amuses me. I have had a serious love of wargaming for almost 50 years. During that time I have occasionally looked forward eagerly to the release of some game or other, but never at the pitch of you guys. Sooner or later the game would fall into my hands. In the meantime, I had a life filled with other things to do and think about. Maybe not having an internet during most of those years was an advantage as I didn't have a crowd of anxious guys all being anxious together. This forum kind of reminds me of the waiting room in the obstetrics section of a major hospital, except none of you can claim to have fathered the child.

There are many other things I should be doing, but somehow, this seems more urgent.

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<snip>I prefer to latch on to the word 'finalized' (sic) ;) in the above quote and attach entirely subjective interpretations as to the length of time it implies. I would assume that finalise couldn't possibly mean any length of time exceeding one week.<snip>

Yeah but things are all iterative. Yes, it is true, once you think you have a releasable build there is a finite time between when you make the call to ship it and when it is available. But part of that time is final testing. And if you find something you want to fix before releasing...

It has to be investigated...

Then fixed...

Then some testing of the fix...

Then a new build...

And then the clock of "finite time before shipping" it starts all over again. And trust me you don't want them to short change that final testing process.

The anxiousness of you guys amazes and amuses me. <snip> Maybe not having an internet during most of those years was an advantage as I didn't have a crowd of anxious guys all being anxious together.<snip>

LOL good point. I guess I am not helping either:)

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