How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, alison said:

That podcast on wargaming was interesting, and it reminded me of a wargame we played in highschool sometime in the late 80s/early 90s. It was a mandatory part of the curriculum and took about a half day if I recall. A huge map of the world was pasted onto the assembly room floor and students were randomly grouped into different countries with different resources and requirements. We had to self-organize to elect leaders (or not), make alliances with other countries (or not), then declare the actions we would take to try to satisfy the requirements of our population - attack, trade, build and so forth. It was similar to Diplomacy.

Anyway, the gimmick was that after a certain number of turns we all reflected on the state of the world, which had by that point deteriorated into exactly the sort of clusterfunk you would expect if you had random highschoolers try their hand at managing global affairs. Then the organizers dropped a huge vat of beads onto the floor where each bead was allegedly the size of the blast radius of large nuclear warhead - one bead for every active warhead at the time. And then we were made to clean them all up, soberly contemplating this worst possible outcome.

I assume this was less of a tool for research and more a tool for education - or propaganda, depending on your perspective - but the impact was real. I was often surprised to hear kids growing up just a few years after me didn't go through these sorts of activities. I think about this when each round of Russian propaganda comes through about how "this time, the nukes really could fly!", and I wonder how hollow that sounds to people who didn't grow up in a Cold War context. "Nukes? Okay, boomer." I doubt it's as visceral to people who grew up with the Global War on Terror as "their" war.

My anecdotal experience with The Kids™ is actually quite different. Without any education in nukes/deterrence, they tend to assume the most hysterical posture when someone like Putin flexes his ICBMs. I get it. It takes some getting used to when someone keeps talking about putting a gun to your head but the understanding of these things is woefully inadequate. And by The Kids™, I should be clear that pretty much covers everyone under 40...to include a whole lot of journalists in this neck of the woods. 

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I dunno, maybe.  I think Trump learned a lot from the pandemic, it basically killed his second term.  Public screw ups one cannot blame on someone else easily, stick.  I am sure Putin is confident he can handle Trump but the stakes are extremely high if he gets it wrong.

Putin's best bet is that Trump is so focused on revenge and retaliation which will result in a tidal wave of law suites and counter-suits, the US becomes even more dysfunctional.  We are likely to lose the US as a global leader because it is all caught up in its own sh#t.  

We can definitely agree that Russia will be in no position to take on NATO - even a reduced NATO in less than 5-10 years.  Hell, if we are smart we keep piling onto Ukraine an bolster them to a deterrence via denial situation.

Three things it is important not to underestimate: 

1. Trump's essential physical cowardice. 

2. Trump's affinity for dictators. 

3. The chaos a Trump victory will create in the effective use of American power.

Edited May 8 by billbindc

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Probus said:

Trump is a loose cannon that can't keep his mouth shut, that's for sure.  But putting on my magic thinking cap, I'll bet dollars to donuts that if Trump gets elected he will do a 180 on support for Ukraine.  He is only against the war right now I'll bet because the current administration is for supporting Ukraine and it gives him talking points.  If Biden were to have been more isolationist, Trump would have lambasted him for it. But that's politics.

War, unfortunately, is big business and Trump, if nothing else, is a businessman.  Now that NATO is starting to pull their own weight, as you say, he'll take credit for that too.

Ok...I gotta dozen Krispy Kreme jelly donuts for a stake. 

How many dollars you want to bet?

[FancyCat]

10 hours ago, Carolus said:

Girkin is being accused of treason in Russia.

 

 

I tried my best to find the source, couldn't find it so.

[A Canadian Cat]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Putin's best bet is that Trump is so focused on revenge and retaliation which will result in a tidal wave of law suites and counter-suits, the US becomes even more dysfunctional.

Honestly I always felt that this was Putin's hope all along. It's not even Trump specific. Putin has done everything he can to just sew chaos (I call him a Chaos Monkey). If he can get an adversary focused on something else he's happy. If he can get allies to squabble his double plus good happy.

Not exactly a grand planner just create as much chaos as possible and throw your weight around while everyone else is busy trying to figure out who did what to whom. It never was a grand 4D chess game with.

Not exactly a new thought here.

[dan/california]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/defense-aerospace-report/id1228868129?i=1000654796384

This is a great podcast, and not just about Ukraine. The really interesting part about Ukraine ,though, is a really good description of how technological advantages come, get countered, and then superseded, by one side or the other in literally a matter of weeks.  

[Harmon Rabb]

We've seen a lot of videos of AFU Bradleys using their 25 mm cannons. Here is a new video of a TOW in action.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

War, unfortunately, is big business and Trump, if nothing else, is a businessman.  Now that NATO is starting to pull their own weight, as you say, he'll take credit for that too.

The first premise is true.

The second is ... well, he's not a *good* businessman, and he really only seems at all interested in grifts where he, personally, can get get free money without contributing any stake. He doesn't appear to have any interest in making America as a whole, and especially any bits of it that refuse to fawn over him, great again.

The third premise is just swallowing a lie, whole.

He'll definitely take credit for everything that isn't obviously a screwup. That much is for sure.

Edited May 8 by JonS

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, alison said:

That podcast on wargaming was interesting, and it reminded me of a wargame we played in highschool sometime in the late 80s/early 90s. It was a mandatory part of the curriculum and took about a half day if I recall. A huge map of the world was pasted onto the assembly room floor and students were randomly grouped into different countries with different resources and requirements. We had to self-organize to elect leaders (or not), make alliances with other countries (or not), then declare the actions we would take to try to satisfy the requirements of our population - attack, trade, build and so forth. It was similar to Diplomacy.

Anyway, the gimmick was that after a certain number of turns we all reflected on the state of the world, which had by that point deteriorated into exactly the sort of clusterfunk you would expect if you had random highschoolers try their hand at managing global affairs. Then the organizers dropped a huge vat of beads onto the floor where each bead was allegedly the size of the blast radius of large nuclear warhead - one bead for every active warhead at the time. And then we were made to clean them all up, soberly contemplating this worst possible outcome.

I assume this was less of a tool for research and more a tool for education - or propaganda, depending on your perspective - but the impact was real. I was often surprised to hear kids growing up just a few years after me didn't go through these sorts of activities. I think about this when each round of Russian propaganda comes through about how "this time, the nukes really could fly!", and I wonder how hollow that sounds to people who didn't grow up in a Cold War context. "Nukes? Okay, boomer." I doubt it's as visceral to people who grew up with the Global War on Terror as "their" war.

I am in sort of in awe of the quality of the school system in question.

Edited May 8 by dan/california

[A Canadian Cat]

I listened to this on my way to work this morning: https://pca.st/episode/4f1c5971-2b30-4198-9047-da1050e9f673

It's a good podcast. They don't always have things right but it is interesting to listen to them talk about politics in various eastern Europian countries.

This episode is about Turkey, China and Russia battling for influence in the Asian former USSR republics. 

Gives some glimpses in the internal rot inside Russia and China's growing influence.

[The_Capt]

33 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

We've seen a lot of videos of AFU Bradleys using their 25 mm cannons. Here is a new video of a TOW in action.

Damn, almost nostalgic…

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Damn, almost nostalgic…

 

36 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

We've seen a lot of videos of AFU Bradleys using their 25 mm cannons. Here is a new video of a TOW in action.

The Bradley is pretty close to the only AFV in this war getting decent press. Do we think this is reflective of its actual effectiveness, or is it that Ukraine finds it useful maximize its exposure. And if the effectiveness differential is real, why?

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, A Canadian Cat said:

I listened to this on my way to work this morning: https://pca.st/episode/4f1c5971-2b30-4198-9047-da1050e9f673

It's a good podcast. They don't always have things right but it is interesting to listen to them talk about politics in various eastern Europian countries.

This episode is about Turkey, China and Russia battling for influence in the Asian former USSR republics. 

Gives some glimpses in the internal rot inside Russia and China's growing influence.

They had another episode today focused on Ukraine with George Barros from ISW:
https://www.aei.org/podcast/frontline-dispatch-mapping-russias-tactics-with-george-barros/

[FancyCat]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries

article on the strikes to Russian refineries, i would pull paragraphs out but frankly, the entire article is essential,  basically lays out why these attacks are having a big effect on Russia but not to the global economy.

[holoween]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

The Bradley is pretty close to the only AFV in this war getting decent press. Do we think this is reflective of its actual effectiveness, or is it that Ukraine finds it useful maximize its exposure. And if the effectiveness differential is real, why?

As far as ive seen all western afvs have been getting good reviews.

[Ivanov]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

The Bradley is pretty close to the only AFV in this war getting decent press. Do we think this is reflective of its actual effectiveness, or is it that Ukraine finds it useful maximize its exposure. And if the effectiveness differential is real, why?

I'd say it's because Ukraine got around 200 of Bradleys (more are arriving there as we speak). Compare it to circa 30 Abrams, 30 Leopards 2A6 and 18 Challengers 2. This number allowed for taking some losses and still being able to have some impact on the battlefield.

Secondly, Bradleys are lighter than the third generation Western tanks, so there have been more opportunities for their employment. The IFV's are used in Ukraine mostly for infantry support, often from a pretty close distance, so Bradleys with 25mm cannon are often better suited for this role than tanks, which are optimized for killing other tanks. 

Lastly, the ticker frontal armor of MBT's doesn't matter so much, if they are being hunted by FPV drones or loitering munition's, that hit them from above. 

[Fenris]

Thread with some video of that turtle tank + mine rollers posted a few pages back

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1788099217623302290

 

[zinz]

https://theins.press/en/confession/271412

Stories from the lucky ones in the meat assaults

[cesmonkey]

A bit off-topic or a bit on-topic:

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2024/05/new-tech-means-defense-outweighs-offense-says-army-futures-command-chief/396422/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Defense One Breaking News: May 8%2C 2024&utm_term=newsletter_d1_alert

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2024/04/armys-special-ops-school-biggest-changes-generation/396100/?oref=d1-related-article

https://www.nextgov.com/defense/2024/04/armys-100-day-plan-find-obstacles-adopting-ai/396077/?oref=d1-related-article

 

Three different stories in Defense One that indicate the army is learning from the Ukraine war.

[cesmonkey]

Edited May 9 by cesmonkey

[cesmonkey]

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-russian-launched-north-korean-missiles-explode-mid-air/

Quote

The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine has disclosed that approximately half of the North Korean missiles fired by Russia toward Ukraine from December to February 2024 detonated in the atmosphere.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

A bit off-topic or a bit on-topic:

 

I'll give Johnson credit, he paid attention to what McCarthy didn't do.  And that was to make a deal with the Dems to compensate for the radicals within his own caucus.  McCarthy thought he could have his cake and eat it too, which was utterly unrealistic.  After the House went into free fall I saw some on the right blaming the Dems for the chaos, which was quite silly.  McCarthy publicly, and quite loudly, stated he would give the Dems nothing.  So they took him at his word and gave him exactly the same thing.

Johnson was, of course, aided by the fact that what the Dems wanted was also something that most of his own caucus also wanted.  It's not like the Dems were asking for citizenship for illegal immigrants or an abortion rights bill.  Ukraine and Israel... two things that never should have been turned away from a vote in the first place.

Now that Johnson as seen that the Dems are true to their word, let's hope the House is a saner place than it has been.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

We've seen a lot of videos of AFU Bradleys using their 25 mm cannons. Here is a new video of a TOW in action.

As any modern CM player knows, providing the enemy a straight shot down an unobstructed road is not a good idea. 

There's no video of what happened before the shot, but my guess is the Brad was lying in wait with realtime updates coming in from a UAV (maybe the one taking the video).  The Russians came around that sharp corner and that was that.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

On 5/6/2024 at 3:09 PM, FancyCat said:

People....STOP GOING TO RUSSIA. For crying out loud...

 

I understand it was a simple case of”d#$k gets hard, brain gets soft!”